James Harden is a superstar

[lorak]

Yes, noise is issue, but that's why I'm asking about explanations.
And BTW, what amount of minutes would be ok for you to use on/off data? 900 at the end of the season would be enough? Or you don't like on/off data at all?

[kaitanuva]

"isn't as good as his box score numbers" lol. You know what does show that he is as good as his box score numbers? Highlights.

Search on youtube:

Harden Hawks
Harden Pistons
Harden Timberwolves
Harden Cavaliers
Harden Heat 36
Harden Thunder 46

[Krodis]

Raw on/off data is sometimes unreliable even on the magnitude of a season or more (Noise is ALWAYS an issue with raw on/off, no matter the sample size). For example, this year the Celtics have been significantly better without Rondo. Last year, they were significantly better with Rondo, and the year before. (But RAPM always had Rondo as a neutral or slight positive impact player.) Unfortunately we seem to no longer have RAPM (which is generally somewhat reliable given a season or so), or APM (which is generally pretty reliable after 2, although noise can still be an issue). Of course, a lot of people are skeptical of these stats no matter the sample size. I am generally a fan of +/- and on/off stats, but I know the limitations, and noise is always an issue, ESPECIALLY given sample sizes of less than a season, and ESPECIALLY with raw on/off.

I think it would lend more credence to the idea that Harden isn't helping the Rockets if the Rockets were bad with him on the floor and better with him off. Instead, they're good with him on the floor and even better with him off. All things considered, that's the kind of thing that screams noise to me, given that I don't think the team as currently constructed is some sort of elite offensive team without Harden.

[CCM721]

The fact that you say he's taking bad shots shows that you probably don't watch the Rockets.

[Krodis]

I mean, Harden's efficiency is down from last year... but his TS% was .660 last year, so that was never going to be repeated. He's at .607 right now, which is still ultra-elite for the volume he's at (although Durant and LeBron are showing him up this year).

[pancakes3]

It's just bad luck for Harden that LBJ and Durant are putting up GOAT efficiency seasons.

[tsherkin]

If nothing else though, what we can take from the with/without data is that there is a puzzling inconsistency that needs to be watched going forward.

Objectively, I think most would admit hat Houston can sustain that level of offense without Harden, or those guys would be more than journeymen and nobodies. Limited role and sample combine with bench opposition to say only so much, after all. We're talking about ten minutes a game when Harden is not on the floor, a sample also influenced by garbage time. That's why raw on/off and with/without are troublesome to employ. There is something at play that doesn't pass the smell test, but it bears observation over time.

I wonder, DS, what does the data say of rookie LBJ and Durant, who were also first-timers at leading an NBA offense?

[fatal9]

year place (RAPM)
2010 109th (+0.3)
2011 96th (+0.9)
2012 35th (+3.0)

You have to consider that Harden was a rookie in 2010. Most rookies and sophomores are (correctly) rated as negatives on RAPM. His sophomore year was kind of disappointing up until he kind of broke out in the playoffs. Then he obviously made a big leap last year. And now he's around the 7500-8000 MP mark which is usually the sweet spot for players to "arrive". It's not inconceivable that he could make a huge leap last year and then another one this year based on the typical career trajectory of a player. Players improve rapidly year to year in their first 4 years/first 8k minutes. We don't have his rapm this year (idk wtf is going on with that site), but his ASPM is very high (only Paul, Durant, LeBron and Parker have higher offensive aspm).

I don't touch raw +/-, almost useless to me, too flawed, you have to control for different lineups for +/- to be meaningful.

The same applies to with/without, yet it was big part of RPOY and peak projects. Should we redo them without using that kind of data? ;]

Personally, I think with/without is better data than on/off to determine a player's value to a team. With/without you need to make sure you account for a lot of factors, a good sample size is important, schedule difficulty needs to be considered, backups, change in strategy in absence of a player (offense/defense oriented lineups?) etc. It doesn't really measure player ability, but in a player's absence, to me it gives an idea of how valuable that player is to the system that the team runs, and also is a good measure of what kind of talent the player is lifting. On/off rating depends a lot on bench vs. bench play and quality of backup, raw +/- depends a lot on simply how good your team is and what kind of lineups you're playing with. Paul is a good example. His on/off rating wasn't impressive at all to start the season, people were saying Clippers depth was the reason for their offensive greatness. But then we got to see the team without Paul for an extended period of time, we saw the system begin to fall apart, ball movement regressed, players had to extend themselves to play roles they were not capable of playing efficiently, and we saw a completely different team offensively in his absence, a very mediocre one instead of one that rates as one of the best. Great players mask a lot of those things and if in your absence, the team is doing just as good or better (ie. team is finding success through a pathway or strategy not involving that player), then I think there are real issues there.

To me it's more important to know everything aspect of a player’s skill, limitations included, and also knowing what is good offense/defense at a team level and how the player is able to fit his game into that. RAPM is the closest thing to "holy grail", matches what I see better than anything else, but even with it I'm not sure we see players play enough minutes with different types of lineups over 82 games. Plus, it's just a number, a useful one, which doesn't really tell you how a player matches up on both ends against different kind of opponents, or how portable a player's skill-set is. Few other issues that have been talked about here in the past as well.

But really, we can't just ignore common sense here, how is Harden is not a great/impactful offensive player? He scores the ball efficiently, moves the ball intelligently, is very good in the pick and roll, attacks the defense and constantly forces teams to compromise their defense which only helps his teammates get easier shots, possesses good decision making (unlike lot of guys who attack the rim with tunnel vision), can shoot from and spot up anywhere on the floor...like how would this not be an impactful offensive player? Westbrook for example, provides some of similar things as Harden (attack the lane at expense of high TOs), but with dumber decision making, more selfishness and worse shooting...and even he is an impactful offensive player (though I don't see how a team wins a championship with a primary on ball guy who is as bad of a decision maker as current Westbrook). I will agree with your point that the kind of team Harden is playing on overrates him through boxscore stats and masks his weaknesses (I've said the same things on this board), but his team impact, especially with the way Houston plays (utilizing Harden's strengths), isn't really a question to me. Right now, Harden's limitations to me would be his turnovers which come from how much he attacks the rim (and from fishing for fouls) even when there are no seams in the defense, but I'll take those turnovers because they are coming from something that is doing good things for an offense (he should improve this aspect of his game over time though), lack of offensive versatility in slower tempo games against good set defense, somewhat inconsistent defense (common with a lot of star players who have to carry the load on offense), but in light of the good things he does, they are not THAT bad.

[rockmanslim]

"isn't as good as his box score numbers" lol. You know what does show that he is as good as his box score numbers? Highlights.

Search on youtube:

Harden Hawks
Harden Pistons
Harden Timberwolves
Harden Cavaliers
Harden Heat 36
Harden Thunder 46

fyi highlight videos are among the worst tools you can use in evaluating a player.

[kaitanuva]

"isn't as good as his box score numbers" lol. You know what does show that he is as good as his box score numbers? Highlights.

Search on youtube:

Harden Hawks
Harden Pistons
Harden Timberwolves
Harden Cavaliers
Harden Heat 36
Harden Thunder 46

fyi highlight videos are among the worst tools you can use in evaluating a player.

I'm going to trust some cherry picked statistic in determining that a player isn't a star instead of raw footage of him willing his team to victory in countless instances. Right.

Look, I'm usually not so dismissive but when you try to go against something so blatantly obvious that Harden is a star you better do a better job of convincing me than that.

[rockmanslim]

"isn't as good as his box score numbers" lol. You know what does show that he is as good as his box score numbers? Highlights.

Search on youtube:

Harden Hawks
Harden Pistons
Harden Timberwolves
Harden Cavaliers
Harden Heat 36
Harden Thunder 46

fyi highlight videos are among the worst tools you can use in evaluating a player.

I'm going to trust some cherry picked statistic in determining that a player isn't a star instead of raw footage of him willing his team to victory in countless instances. Right.

Look, I'm usually not so dismissive but when you try to go against something so blatantly obvious that Harden is a star you better do a better job of convincing me than that.

i didn't say he wasn't a star.

he puts up superstar stats, despite some notable limitations. that is to his credit, i guess.

but those limitatinos are there, notably his one-on-one off the dribble game. it's painful at times, though he has shown he can get good results out of it, at times.

i'm referring to his habit of dribbling the ball back and forth between his legs, standing in place. that's pretty much the extent of his iso game. like i said he's often able to hit the jumper he takes at the end of the display, so that's to his credit.

[Colbinii]

So was Kevin Love a superstar 2 years ago?
He had a much worse supporting cast than Harden has and was putting up arguable better numbers.

[Fobbie]

So was Kevin Love a superstar 2 years ago?
He had a much worse supporting cast than Harden has and was putting up arguable better numbers.

You seem to be forgetting that his team finish 17-65.. Big difference between a team with a brand new rosters fighting for the playoff vs a team that finish 17-65. Just saying...

[pancakes3]

So was Kevin Love a superstar 2 years ago?
He had a much worse supporting cast than Harden has and was putting up arguable better numbers.

Would you not? Are we splitting hairs between the difference of "star" and "superstar" ?

[nate33]

I can't believe there is even a debate about this. Harden is putting up elite efficiency on very heavy usage while also stuffing the rest of the box score. He is carrying a pretty untalented basketball team to an above-.500 record in the West. If that's not a superstar, I don't know what is. There are only two players in this league putting up better numbers than Harden.

[PetroNet]

harden has such a trash game.... he relies on the refs to send him to the line with all his flopping and flailing and herky jerky crap. which is why in the playoffs he wont be the same... last year against the heat he didnt get those calls and completely disappeared. he is a good player, but not a star, and his success relies too much on the officials

[Krodis]

But career-wise he has a more or less identical FTA/FGA in the playoffs as the regular season.

[Blame Rasho]

harden has such a trash game.... he relies on the refs to send him to the line with all his flopping and flailing and herky jerky crap. which is why in the playoffs he wont be the same... last year against the heat he didnt get those calls and completely disappeared. he is a good player, but not a star, and his success relies too much on the officials

I honestly doubt that you wouldn't trade for Joe Johnson for him... so what does that say about Joe Johnson's game?

[Rapcity_11]

Where does this refs don't call fouls in the playoffs narrative come from? Definitely not reality.

[ardee]

harden has such a trash game.... he relies on the refs to send him to the line with all his flopping and flailing and herky jerky crap. which is why in the playoffs he wont be the same... last year against the heat he didnt get those calls and completely disappeared. he is a good player, but not a star, and his success relies too much on the officials

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFnFr-DOPf8[/youtube]