Baseball America Top 100 - 2013

[The_Hater]

I didn't see this posted, it just came out 4 days ago.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/02/2013-top-100-prospects-list/

Top Jays:

#65 Aaron Sanchez, rhp
#98 Marcus Stroman, rhp

Others:

#23 Travis d'Arnaud, c, NYM
#54 Noah Syndergaard, rhp, NYM
#64 Jake Marisnick, of, MIA
#86 Justin Nicolino, lhp, MIA

[N31L]

Let's say: In a perfect world, both Zunino and d'Arnaud live up to their potential and then some, who will be the better player after a few years? I'm asking this because I don't know much about prospects, I heard about Zunino only recently.

[Schad]

Let's say: In a perfect world, both Zunino and d'Arnaud live up to their potential and then some, who will be the better player after a few years? I'm asking this because I don't know much about prospects, I heard about Zunino only recently.

Zunino. More power, better plate discipline. Whether he lives up to it remains to be seen, though, as he only got a brief look-in last year at a level above low-A.

[number15]

i disagree on the pitchers....

to me from the trio of Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicholini... Sanchez is the clear BEST. I thought Sanchez was the second best prospect in the Jays system when we had D'Arnaud. Syndergaard is great, but not higher than Sanchez. Nicholini is rated about rite though.

then again, these ranking mean squat in the long run, as most top prospects will be bust and some low ranked will be superstars....... its fun to read though.

[Schad]

i disagree on the pitchers....

to me from the trio of Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicholini... Sanchez is the clear BEST. I thought Sanchez was the second best prospect in the Jays system when we had D'Arnaud. Syndergaard is great, but not higher than Sanchez. Nicholini is rated about rite though.

then again, these ranking mean squat in the long run, as most top prospects will be bust and some low ranked will be superstars....... its fun to read though.

Sanchez is ranked there because his walk rate is still extremely high, something that generally does not augur well; that he's ranked at all in the top 100 while walking 5+ per nine is indicative of his potential. Syndergaard is much more polished, and has good stuff (though he's one pitch away from being an elite prospect), and thus he's ranked slightly higher. Nicolino is much more polished, but his stuff doesn't pop to the same degree, and thus he's slightly lower.

[zong]

Which prospect(s) of ours is most likely to break into the Top 100 this year after some development? I thought Osuna was in there somewhere.

[Schad]

Which prospect(s) of ours is most likely to break into the Top 100 this year after some development? I thought Osuna was in there somewhere.

Hard to say, as most of them are at very low levels. Osuna is a definite possibility, depending on where he begins the year, and if Smoral has a good season his physical presence is a good bet to make BA swoon. There's talk that DJ Davis might start in Lansing, which would give him a good chance of making it (though I have doubts that he's ready to do much beyond striking out there).

Sneaky pick: Santiago Nessy. Would expect to see him in Lansing this year, and his power began to show last year. Couple that with the fact that he's looking for likely to stick behind the plate, and he could climb prospect lists pretty quickly...though the same caveat about not striking out each and every time applies.

[satyr9]

Trying to answer that question a different way, the guy who I think would have to do the least to make the list is Norris, with Davis a close second. What I mean is these are guys BA values intrinsically, so statistically it doesn't take as much to get into their good graces. A guy like Nicolino basically has to throw perfect games to make the bottom quintile, but if Norris puts up a sub 4, while he's of or slightly under-age, he could crack the top 50. Same for a toolbag like Davis.

I'm pretty surprised Stroman made their list actually. In fact, I think the list is crazy heavy on 2012 draftees (maybe it always is and I'm just noticing this?) starting with the top 10 picks showing in almost the exact order they were drafted (a few places where subsequent picks are flip-flopped on the list, but they basically just threw them in every 3-5 picks from 10-50).

I wish BA would do two lists: The 0-2 years from MLB and 2+ years group. They could make the synthesis list too, but they should publish the separates ones for the public.

I also think as prospect porn becomes more and more mainstream, the lobbying is becoming a problem, if it wasn't already. There's real value to a GM to get an extra guy or two on these kinds of lists. Mostly, it's PR value, to placate a fanbase going through rough times, but I bet it can work on ownership too and potentially save a guy his job.

[-MetA4-]

I'm pretty surprised Stroman made their list actually.

Why would you be surprised? BA loves Stroman and are one of the strongest proponents of the "if he were 4 inches taller he'd have been a top 5 pick" theory.

In fact, I think the list is crazy heavy on 2012 draftees (maybe it always is and I'm just noticing this?)

Its always been that way. Thats the only problem I have with their rankings: shiny new toy syndrome.

[-MetA4-]

BTW; the new Ask BA features the guys who didn't make the list but had Top 150 votes. Of the Jays:

DJ Davis: 4 Top 150 nominations, peak rating of 93
Daniel Norris: 1 Top 50 nomination, peak rating of 136
Roberto Osuna: 6 Top 150 nominations, peak rating of 79

Callis also specifically mentioned Sanchez and Stroman in his group of guys who he could see flying up the list next year, as well as Osuna.

[satyr9]

I'm pretty surprised Stroman made their list actually.

Why would you be surprised? BA loves Stroman and are one of the strongest proponents of the "if he were 4 inches taller he'd have been a top 5 pick" theory.

I found it surprising that they'd pick a guy with the year he had in 98. Once you're in that section of the list, there are probably at least a dozen equivalent guys (at least), so it's just a straight judgment call and I'm surprised their love of Stroman got him into 98th with the suspension.

I guess I'm looking at it backwards. They saw him as a no brainer top 100 and dropped him all the way to 98th because of it, rather than as a guy who sneaked in despite the controversial season.

Also, for a guy many suspected would have a chance to crack MLB in his draft year, he didn't live up to that promise. It's impossible to make an evaluation, at least statistically, on less than 20 IP in the minors, but post-draft he certainly didn't do things as a prospect to increase his stock for a list like BA's.

Now, none of that affected my perception of him as a prospect, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised that BA appears to remain equally bullish on him, but I did find it surprising all the same. He just seemed like a guy they'd have an easy time making him into one of the final cuts, but mentioning as a potential high-riser.