Would the Nuggets be better with Melo?

[rrravenred]

The Nuggs are currently rolling along quite nicely thankyou, with an even, distributed style of play (8 players are over 20 mpg). It's top scorer (Gallinari) is only averaging 17 ppg, but they're still the 5th best offensive team in the league (by ORtg). Defensively, they're only middle of the range, but are still a solid 5th seed if the playoffs started today.

Would the team improve with Melo back in the side (even this year's arguably-in-the-MVP-conversation Melo), or would messing with the roster give them a worse record? Some reasoning with your answers would be nice.

[Doormatt]

i mean, the nuggets arent even remotely contenders so yeah theyd probably be better with melo. right now they are beating teams with a fast paced high powered offense and a slightly below average defense. i made this comparison earlier in the season but to me they are a deeper version of the rockets but instead of harden they have gallinari. so really i dont see them sustaining any sort of success in the playoffs as they dont really have a player who can consistently create offense at a slower pace, especially since they thrive on fast breaks and turnovers. melo would help that and give them a better chance of winning in the postseason. they are currently a team that is imo built to win regular season games and then be a non factor in the playoffs, maybe pull off an upset if they face a team dealing with injuries, but certainly go no further than the 2nd round.

[rrravenred]

Well he arguably hasn't done a lot for NY during the past few playoff runs, it has to be said...

[Doormatt]

different situation.

the question is would melo's ability to iso and create offense be better for the nuggets in the playoffs replacing gallo? i say yes it would.

[kasino]

Well he didn't have much to work with look at the roster celtics completely focused on him
Last season Amare and Shump went down the Heat completely focused on him
This is the first season since 09 the team around him is contender worthy
The Nuggets with all they have from the Melo trade and with Iggy is surely a better team with Melo then they would be without them

Idk why Melo gets bashed so often, never missing the PS while some players are given all the credit in the world and have more messed PS pretty often

[Doormatt]

melo is pretty overrated by the media and fans in general. he certainly doesnt belong in the MVP discussion as there are at least 5-10 players more deserving of that, but i still the nuggets could use a scorer of the likes of melo considerably.

[rrravenred]

And for kicks, overall pace differences between RS and Playoffs:

Code: Select all

Year   R/S   POffs   Percentage Difference
1980   103.1   98.4   4.53%
1981   101.8   95.2   6.51%
1982   100.9   98.4   2.45%
1983   103.1   100.2   2.77%
1984   101.4   97.9   3.48%
1985   102.1   103.5   -1.35%
1986   102.1   99.0   3.07%
1987   100.8   97.5   3.28%
1988   99.6   94.0   5.61%
1989   100.6   94.4   6.20%
1990   98.3   95.9   2.47%
1991   97.8   93.3   4.63%
1992   96.6   91.7   5.12%
1993   96.8   90.8   6.17%
1994   95.1   88.6   6.83%
1995   92.9   89.0   4.21%
1996   91.8   87.1   5.13%
1997   90.1   87.2   3.26%
1998   90.3   85.9   4.85%
1999   88.9   85.7   3.62%
2000   93.1   87.8   5.68%
2001   91.3   89.3   2.14%
2002   90.7   90.5   0.22%
2003   91.0   90.3   0.76%
2004   90.1   88.4   1.89%
2005   90.9   89.3   1.79%
2006   90.5   89.2   1.47%
2007   91.9   89.5   2.63%
2008   92.4   88.0   4.75%
2009   91.7   88.7   3.23%
2010   92.7   89.7   3.28%
2011   92.1   87.8   4.66%
2012   91.3   89.0   2.49%
Average   94.81   91.85   3.57%

I'd love to have broken it down by series, but Basketball Reference doesn't give per-game pace numbers (damn you, Kubatko, daaaaaamn you).

So whilst the effect is real enough, it averages 3 possessions per game slower (except for 1985... which is an outlier) with quite a few years being negligibly slower.

By decade it goes...

1980s - 3.75% - 3.7 possessions per game
1990s - 4.63% - 4.4 possessions per game
2000s - 2.46 - 2.2 possessions per game

Interesting that the 90s were the decade with the biggest disparity, which I put down to the murderous early 90s defence as well as the glut of talented post players, giving more incentive to slow it down.

To what degree those 2 - 4.5 possessions difference require new skillsets and gamestyles is arguable, although the finer grained pace-per-playoff-round would make this a much easier question to answer.

[Doormatt]

hm its not just the absolute pace but just the way playoff games are played. youre playing against a team for potentially 7 games, teams will game plan to slow you down, and youre not going to get as many fast breaks or easy buckets. it works in the regular season becuase teams could be resting players/dealing with injuries, coming off of back to backs (like the lakers were tonight), or in general out of rhythm. playoff basketball is just different, not so much so that its a different game, but enough to the point where having a guy like melo with a different skill set and style would be more beneficial than having someone like gallo. plus in the playoffs since youre playing against one team for a whole series, whatever stats/averages were happening in the regular season against the entire league arent as meaningful, since you are facing a certain matchup (usually a better team since this is the playoffs).

look at the nuggets last year. they were 2nd in pace (+2.9 to league average) in the regular season and in the playoffs against a laker team that liked to play very slow (20th in pace in the regular season) they were 5th in pace (+1.3). there offense was slightly worse too and went from 109.2 (+4.6) to 107.1 (+3.5). and yeah against the lakers the nuggets couldve used someone like melo, and i dont see how this year is any different.

the nuggets can be successful in the regular season because they are young, deep and can get out and run. 2 of those advantages are much less important in the playoffs where rotations shorten and being young/inexperienced all of a sudden isnt as valuable where your next game could mean elimination.

[jman2585]

Melo is overrated lately, him being an MVP candidate was absurd, but then so are the Nuggets. Regardless of how he'd fit on this team with their balance, etc, they'd be better off, because a happy, contracted Melo has better trade value.

[JordansBulls]

Not sure really. The way the Knicks started off this year you would think so, but now they are pretty much equal to the Nuggets recordwise.

[E-Balla]

28.4/6.5/2.7 on 56TS while being second, on the second best team in the conference, in on/off. Melo PRIOR to this year was overrated but Melo right now is probably underrated by most fans (especially on here). I don't see any way you can say he's not a top 5-10 MVP candidate. He's arguably 4th by any metric.

[E-Balla]

Also they'll easily be better with him. They were badly missing a great scorer last year in the playoffs. This team is good without a lead star but they don't had anyone good enough to lead them. Melo giving them 27/7/3 a night would definetly help.

[hokageinfamus]

obviously if it wasn't for Melo the Nuggets wouldn't be as deep as they are now. You add him to the current team they're a contender

[fatal9]

Melo has improved his spot up shooting (I think? some data to confirm this would be good) and off ball scoring in the past year, that could probably make him a better fit in Denver than he was before. Still a serious ball stopper in non spot-up opportunities, and his efficiency is regressing to what is more typical of him, but I think Karl could make better use of him now because his jumpshooting seems to have improved (and I'd say a higher % of his offense comes from "in the flow" opportunities than before). So imo his game is a bit more conducive to an offense with ball movement than it was before.

They do have issues offensively when they can't dictate the pace so he helps them out there, but there's always a fine line with Melo, he can shoot you out of a game just as easily. Denver is going to be the favorite in all of their home games, they have an amazing home court advantage, but having Melo maybe gives them a better chance of stealing one on the road in the playoffs (though I don't feel comfortable saying this considering Melo has never shown himself to be a reliable player in the playoffs). Still a lot of the same issues with him, awful team defender, not particularly good at reading defenses but you can plan your half court offense around the defensive attention he receives (especially with good three point shooting around him), but still the same poor feel for the game at a team level that has always kept him from making superstar impact. To me he helps their offense overall, especially in a playoff setting, he has made improvements to his game since his previous stint with the team, but I don't think he helps them breakthrough against the Clippers, OKC or Spurs. Maybe gives them a better chance to beat the Grizzlies though. The next breakthrough for Denver will come once they improve defensively (Iggy has helped, but their PG defense is terrible, Faried and McGee have the talent to be good defenders but are prone to a lot of mistakes), and Melo doesn't help them in that regard at all. The potential improvement in half court offense comes at the expense of having to play another weak defensive player, so I don't see them getting past the second round when they will run into one of the offensive powerhouses (SAS, OKC, LAC).

[JordansBulls]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1214169

[SideshowBob]

Melo has improved his spot up shooting (I think? some data to confirm this would be good) and off ball scoring in the past year, that could probably make him a better fit in Denver than he was before. Still a serious ball stopper in non spot-up opportunities, and his efficiency is regressing to what is more typical of him, but I think Karl could make better use of him now because his jumpshooting seems to have improved (and I'd say a higher % of his offense comes from "in the flow" opportunities than before). So imo his game is a bit more conducive to an offense with ball movement than it was before.

They do have issues offensively when they can't dictate the pace so he helps them out there, but there's always a fine line with Melo, he can shoot you out of a game just as easily. Denver is going to be the favorite in all of their home games, they have an amazing home court advantage, but having Melo maybe gives them a better chance of stealing one on the road in the playoffs (though I don't feel comfortable saying this considering Melo has never shown himself to be a reliable player in the playoffs). Still a lot of the same issues with him, awful team defender, not particularly good at reading defenses but you can plan your half court offense around the defensive attention he receives (especially with good three point shooting around him), but still the same poor feel for the game at a team level that has always kept him from making superstar impact. To me he helps their offense overall, especially in a playoff setting, he has made improvements to his game since his previous stint with the team, but I don't think he helps them breakthrough against the Clippers, OKC or Spurs. Maybe gives them a better chance to beat the Grizzlies though. The next breakthrough for Denver will come once they improve defensively (Iggy has helped, but their PG defense is terrible, Faried and McGee have the talent to be good defenders but are prone to a lot of mistakes), and Melo doesn't help them in that regard at all. The potential improvement in half court offense comes at the expense of having to play another weak defensive player, so I don't see them getting past the second round when they will run into one of the offensive powerhouses (SAS, OKC, LAC).

FWIW fatal here's what Synergy has for his spot-up shooting this season (but there's nothing to compare it to):

203 plays, 1.11 points per play (#62 in the league), 78/188 overall, 58/145 on 3 pointers for an overall eFG% of 56.9%.

[rrravenred]

Thanks for that Fatal, just the sort of analysis I was looking for.

One reason I ask is that I've a bit of a fascination with George Karl as a coach, and his teams are almost always built around multi-polar offences and don't rely on having great one-out players. Add Nique to those early 90s Sonics teams, are they as successful?

Granted, back then he had a bit more talent to work with than currently.