The Summer of 2014-2015, prolonging the dynasty

[RexBoyWonder]

I see some people sweating about our future cap sitiuation and the 2014-2015 season when the big 3 have an exit clause in their contracts. I find all the worrying abit silly and definitely over exaggerated by sensational media and delusional fans from other teams so i'll try to provide a simple explanation to why are we in a good shape going forward and why all indications and logic are pointing towards us keeping the big 3 and this team only getting better.

First, It's safe to say that the roster will change abit untill that 2014-2015 summer. Miller is going to be amnestied after this season, And we'll add another Mini-MLE player next year and a couple of minimum vetrens guys.

So looking at our salaries coming into the 2014-2015 season, we'll have these players on our books :

Chris Bosh : $20,590,000 (Early Termination, player option)
Lebron james : $20,590,000 (Early Termination, player option)
Dwyane Wade : $20,164,000 (Early Termination, player option)
Udonis Haslem : $4,620,000 (player option)
Joel Anthony : $3,800,000 (player option)
Norris Cole : $2,038,206 (team option)
The Mini-MLE player we'll sign next year : $3,135,000

in total : $ 75.2 Mil.

This might seem high, but if we look closely it's actually very manageable and provides us the needed flexibility because we can restructure almost all of these contracts. Here's just one example :

D-Wade uses his early termination option and sighs a new contract. instead of making $20,164,000 in 2014-2015 and $21,655,000 in 2015-2016 and then hitting the the market as a free agent (at age 35), he signs a new longer contract so he could retire in a Heat Jersey. somthing like $15 Mil per year for 4 years (60 Mil total). The improtant thing to notice is that we're not asking him to give up money, considering age that's actually a good deal for both him and the team.
Similar thing can be done with Haslem. since he's not worth more then the minimum in any other team, ask him to spread his contract for a longer period. instead of making $4,620,000 in 2014-2015 and then hitting the market as a free agent, give him $2 Mil per year for 3 years. He won't play much in those last 2 years but can be a leader like Juwan Howard was.
Joel will be an expiring contract, so we'll probably trade him in order to gain more cap space.

So with just those few logical steps, we have that core of the big3+Haslem+Cole+MLE player for $63.7 Mil.

Since we have Wade's bird rights, we could sigh him to his new contract even if we go beyond the cap by doing so.
This means we have around $13 Mil to sign free agent to complete the roster. we'll probably use that money on the best available Center and Point guard. If you look at the players that wil become free agents at that time, you'l find names like Larry Sanders, Marcin Gortat, Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, among others (we could also re-sigh Chalmers).

So we could go with Gortat for $7 mil per year, Lowry for $6 mil per year, and fill the rest of the roster with vetren minimum guys.

Lowery/Cole
Wade/vet minimum
LBJ/vet minimum
Bosh/draft pick/Haslem
Gortat/miniMLE player

Not much of a bench, but we'll find some decent veterns trying to chase a ring. the more important point - look at that monster starting lineup.

As for the cost?

Around $81 Mil, before tax. We will pay the repeat offender tax, so add around $26 mil. in total = ~$107 Mil.
We're paying more then a $100 Mil this year. I think Micky will agree that keeping the big3 and building this monster team is worth it.

The key to all of this is all those players options, those are going to provide us the freedom needed to make the most out of our new roster around the big 3. Simply put - Pat Riley is a genius.

[BlackBerry]

I hope your right about keeping the Three Kings in Miami and building a dynasty around them. However, I doubt the heat will use amnesty on Miller considering game 5 of the 2012 playoffs. Heat are a first class organisation (Stephen A. Smith, 2012) and family is at the core of there foundation so they will not amnestry players that did something for our franchise.

P.S: I made a thread and it got trashed. I hope this stays and shows the mods that this thread is needed. A lot of heat fans want to embrass this discussion.

[Ratchet_Rio]

I agree that this is a necessary thread about a topic which is a concern to Heat fans, this is well organized Rex.

I do have a question. The big 3 all have opt-in/out clauses, is it all possible that one or more could "opt in" during the season next year as opposed to waiting till the summer, or is that not allowed? Frankly I get tired of all the speculation that LeBron could leave and think it would be great if he silenced that talk by opting in during the year..if this is indeed where he wants to be long term.

edit: What the hell did OP get suspended for

[GreenHat]

I can't see Wade taking a 5 mil paycut just for one extra season (which he could get anyway). You're saying it will be the same money but in reality he would get a contract for that fourth season anyway. His max in those four seasons will be over 85 million (close to 90) and you have him taking 60. It might happen but you can't count on that.

Haslem might for some kind of under the table coaching job after he retires but how good will Haslem be in a couple of years?

"Since we have Wade's bird rights, we could sigh him to his new contract even if we go beyond the cap by doing so."

The problem with that is I think you are forgetting the cap hold. While having Wade's Bird Rights does let us exceed the salary cap to sign him we would have a 20 million cap hold until we do sign him. The only way to get rid of that cap hold is to renounce him in which case we would lose his Bird Rights.

You also forgot cap holds for the empty roster which would be a few extra million.

Its not a huge problem like some people think but the outlook is not as bright as you think either. We won't have 13 million to spend unless something crazy happens and someone takes way less or the cap goes up so much.

[BennyGfromFL]

Since we have Wade's bird rights, we could sigh him to his new contract even if we go beyond the cap by doing so.
This means we have around $13 Mil to sign free agent to complete the roster. we'll probably use that money on the best available Center and Point guard. If you look at the players that wil become free agents at that time, you'l find names like Larry Sanders, Marcin Gortat, Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, among others (we could also re-sigh Chalmers).

So we could go with Gortat for $7 mil per year, Lowry for $6 mil per year, and fill the rest of the roster with vetren minimum guys.

Lowery/Cole
Wade/vet minimum
LBJ/vet minimum
Bosh/draft pick/Haslem
Gortat/miniMLE player

You're forgetting about mandatory cap holds, which will make it impossible for us to ever have cap space unless we renounce one of the Big 3, in which case we wouldn't have their Bird Rights to sign them over the salary cap. So as long as we have the Big 3, we'll only be able to upgrade through the the tax-payer exception, minimums, the draft, and trades.

Edit: GreenHat beat me to it

[GreenHat]

Oh you also forgot draft picks

[mopper8]

I can't see Wade taking a 5 mil paycut just for one extra season (which he could get anyway). You're saying it will be the same money but in reality he would get a contract for that fourth season anyway. His max in those four seasons will be over 85 million (close to 90) and you have him taking 60. It might happen but you can't count on that.

Haslem might for some kind of under the table coaching job after he retires but how good will Haslem be in a couple of years?

"Since we have Wade's bird rights, we could sigh him to his new contract even if we go beyond the cap by doing so."

The problem with that is I think you are forgetting the cap hold. While having Wade's Bird Rights does let us exceed the salary cap to sign him we would have a 20 million cap hold until we do sign him. The only way to get rid of that cap hold is to renounce him in which case we would lose his Bird Rights.

You also forgot cap holds for the empty roster which would be a few extra million.

Its not a huge problem like some people think but the outlook is not as bright as you think either. We won't have 13 million to spend unless something crazy happens and someone takes way less or the cap goes up so much.

I do think the cap is going to go up. Forget how they calculate it, but I saw something on nba.com the other day saying the league's revenue increased 20% to $5bn, so I imagine there will be some bump in the cap and tax thresholds next season and, if revenue goes up again, the season after.

[RexBoyWonder]

I can't see Wade taking a 5 mil paycut just for one extra season (which he could get anyway). You're saying it will be the same money but in reality he would get a contract for that fourth season anyway. His max in those four seasons will be over 85 million (close to 90) and you have him taking 60. It might happen but you can't count on that.

Look carfully at the years left. It's an extra 2 years in ages 35 and 36. he's not getting $15 Mil per year if he becomes a free agent at that age.

Haslem might for some kind of under the table coaching job after he retires but how good will Haslem be in a couple of years?

He's not even that good now . like i said, We won't count on his contribution on the floor. he'll be the new jowan howard.

"Since we have Wade's bird rights, we could sigh him to his new contract even if we go beyond the cap by doing so."

The problem with that is I think you are forgetting the cap hold. While having Wade's Bird Rights does let us exceed the salary cap to sign him we would have a 20 million cap hold until we do sign him. The only way to get rid of that cap hold is to renounce him in which case we would lose his Bird Rights.

You're right, i forgot about that. im sure how much will the cap hold be on Wade in that scenario. are you sure it's 20 Mil? how is that calculated?

[RexBoyWonder]

I can't see Wade taking a 5 mil paycut just for one extra season (which he could get anyway). You're saying it will be the same money but in reality he would get a contract for that fourth season anyway. His max in those four seasons will be over 85 million (close to 90) and you have him taking 60. It might happen but you can't count on that.

Haslem might for some kind of under the table coaching job after he retires but how good will Haslem be in a couple of years?

"Since we have Wade's bird rights, we could sigh him to his new contract even if we go beyond the cap by doing so."

The problem with that is I think you are forgetting the cap hold. While having Wade's Bird Rights does let us exceed the salary cap to sign him we would have a 20 million cap hold until we do sign him. The only way to get rid of that cap hold is to renounce him in which case we would lose his Bird Rights.

You also forgot cap holds for the empty roster which would be a few extra million.

Its not a huge problem like some people think but the outlook is not as bright as you think either. We won't have 13 million to spend unless something crazy happens and someone takes way less or the cap goes up so much.

I do think the cap is going to go up. Forget how they calculate it, but I saw something on nba.com the other day saying the league's revenue increased 20% to $5bn, so I imagine there will be some bump in the cap and tax thresholds next season and, if revenue goes up again, the season after.

Yup, The cap and also the Luxury tax limit should go up, i believe both are determined by the league's revenue which is going up. Hopefully this also helps us by then.

[HEAT111]

And remember this, I do see that some of our guys wouldn't mind sacrificing money just to keep the core intact if that's the case. When Lebron's first comment about those speculations. He kind of inffered saying "If I have to sacrifice again to keep on winning, then I'll sacrifice again." Also, Riley implication during the Finals victory; we were built to compete for the title "for a long time."

[Mars]

"I got this." © Andy Elisburg

[Flash3]

"I got this." © Andy Elisburg

[krikor]

Those thinking we will break the team are just haters.I know how owners think at this type of positions..
Micky Arrison sees we have winning team, he will spend for 3 4 more years until lebron is 35..
then after lebron era is over, we can put up a 22 million team..and arrison recovers lot of money he put in the team.


I would take 6 7 more years of rings with lebron, then after it a couple of rubbish years...much like jordan bulls.

[TheDon008]

"I got this." © Andy Elisburg

Meme should read.

2014 free agency?

Challenge accepted!

[krikor]

And remember this, I do see that some of our guys wouldn't mind sacrificing money just to keep the core intact if that's the case. When Lebron's first comment about those speculations. He kind of inffered saying "If I have to sacrifice again to keep on winning, then I'll sacrifice again." Also, Riley implication during the Finals victory; we were built to compete for the title "for a long time."

following my last post. as long as we have winning title team, we will overspend.
then after lebront is 35 and done with his career.we can put out a 20 million team for 3 4 years...

[RexBoyWonder]

Even with the cap holds i conveniently forgot to take into accout earlier, There's still no need to break up the big 3.

Wade can spread his contract to an extra year or extra 2 years, LBJ can take less money (it's peanuts compared to his shoe deal), Haslem can spread his contract, we can trade Joel...we have alot of realistic options.

Lets say we add Dalembert and DeJuan Blair for next year. then we reach the 2014-2015 with a roster of :

Rio/Cole
Wade/_______
LBJ/________
Bosh/Blair
Dalmbert/Varnado/Hamilton

And then we could use another MiniMLE and add one of these free agents to replace Allen and Battier (old, probably retire) : Brandon Rush, Ben Gordon, Shannon Brown, Carlos Delfino.
We'll also have our own draft pick, and maybe the Sixers pick too. Hopefully Rio and Cole continue to grow, Hamilton pans out, we draft another good player or 2...we could definitely stay at the level of a strong contender. And even if the big 3 stay with their current contracts, this roster won't cost us much more then this years' roster.

big 3 = 61 Mil
Rio + Cole = 6
2 MiniMLE players = 6
Varnado + Hamilton + Blair = 4
2 draft pick + 2 veterns = 6

Total = 83. With Tax = ~$110Mil. just a few Mil more then we pay this year. and this is the worst case scenario where none of the big3 agree to take a little less or spread their contract.

[420]

I don't even wanna think about what it's gonna take to get this team to stick together. That new CBA should've just read "LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh CANNOT be on the same team."

But I do imagine that we're going to have to get under the luxury tax for at least one season so the repeat tax payer tax doesn't make it more difficult for Arison to keep the team.

[cb1]

I have no idea why Joel gets paid as much as he does, he's certainly not worth anything more the minimum. Same goes for Miller as well. Those guys just ride the bench anyways. I agree that as long as the big 3 decide that they want to win, they will take the paycuts necessary.

[420]

I have no idea why Joel gets paid as much as he does, he's certainly not worth anything more the minimum. Same goes for Miller as well. Those guys just ride the bench anyways. I agree that as long as the big 3 decide that they want to win, they will take the paycuts necessary.

Good point on how these guys get paid more than they play.

Cole
Anderson
Battier
Joel
Miller

The salaries gradually increase as the MPG and performance gradually declines.

If it weren't for the luxury tax, it's still nice t have guys who can come off the bench and give you something when our other guys are struggling.

[Tien]

They're not going anywhere.

I read a Forbes article detailing how much money Bron / Wade make from endorsements, about 30-40 million. Plus a 17 million salary. Taking a 5 million / year pay cut is nothing to them.

The only thing would be Bosh deciding not to opt out and resign at lower amount. But if Bron and Wade resign at lower salary, I don't see how bosh would decide to go make more money elsewhere.

Also have to consider there are only a handful of teams out there where they wouldn't have to pay state income taxes on half their income.

So, about 9 million a year is not taxed. If you ship yourself out to New York, you'll fork over another 3-4 million in taxes.

Doesn't make any sense for any of them to leave Miami. What I see is LeBron taking the biggest cut, allowing Bosh to make more than he does, keep everyone happy, and keep crushing. LeBron knows if he wins 6 rings, his endorsement deals will go way way way beyond the years he retires.