Official Tobias Harris watch thread (The End)

[paulpressey25]

I wonder why it is that Tobias shoots 61% when the point differential in a game is greater than 10 points, and 42% when the margin is less than 10 points. What I'm asking is, does Garbage Time Theory have competition?

I think you can be secure in the belief that Tobias is a good prospect and it didn't make sense for us to trade him while at the same time acknowledging that he played his way out of the rotation and is not the victim of a conspiracy.

Remember Chris Gatling? Going to the garbage time theory.

[El Duderino]

No i don't agree

Hammond trading a 20 year old kid with ability and on a cheap rookie contract for a guy who very well could end up walking after this season ends goes right into the category of where i said Hammond has mainly sucked as a GM outside of draft night.

Ok, but what do you believe makes a skilled drafter? Good player evaluation ability correct?

Evaluating how a young guy will hopefully translate to the pro game and some luck in the lottery and on draft night sprinkled in always helps.

[Frank Nova]

I wonder why it is that Tobias shoots 61% when the point differential in a game is greater than 10 points, and 42% when the margin is less than 10 points. What I'm asking is, does Garbage Time Theory have competition?

I think you can be secure in the belief that Tobias is a good prospect and it didn't make sense for us to trade him while at the same time acknowledging that he played his way out of the rotation and is not the victim of a conspiracy.

Remember Chris Gatling? Going to the garbage time theory.

How bout Beno Udrih if we are talking garbage time heroes. Dude was a stud for the Kings when his play had no repercussions but bring him to Milwaukee and give him meaningful minutes and he totally regresses. And then blames the coaches that he regressed because he didn't play enough but he played his way to limited playing time. That's how u know a garbage time hero when u see 1. Tobias could easily follow suit. Just saying.

[emunney]

I just want to be clear that I don't think Tobias is that guy long term. I just think that people who are pointing out that he's been productive in his opportunities are discounting the fact that a disproportionate amount of his opportunities have come with nothing at stake, and that he really has not been very good otherwise. Blame the guards or the offense we run all you want, but those things haven't seemed to hurt Dunleavy.

[whatthe_buck!?]

No i don't agree

Hammond trading a 20 year old kid with ability and on a cheap rookie contract for a guy who very well could end up walking after this season ends goes right into the category of where i said Hammond has mainly sucked as a GM outside of draft night.

Ok, but what do you believe makes a skilled drafter? Good player evaluation ability correct?

Evaluating how a young guy will hopefully translate to the pro game and some luck in the lottery and on draft night sprinkled in always helps.

Ok but luck doesn't count towards whether a GM is a SKILLED drafter. And if talent evaluation is what makes a GM either a skilled or unskilled drafter, then which of the following two possibilities is more likely (assuming as u argue that Hammond "sucks at everything besides drafting"):
Is
1) Hammond is good at evaluating college players in way that reveals whether their games "translate to the pro game" and is therefore is a skilled drafter but that talent evaluation for pro players is so different and is something that he is so bad at he sucks at all the other aspects of his job that rely on him being a skilled pro personnel evaluator...
Or
2) Is he actually is a poor talent evaluator all around but either gets good advice and listens to college scouts that are skilled talent evaluators or he has simply gotten relatively lucky in his 5 drafts so far (see PPs monkey draft machine thread)?

Personally I think its pretty obvious which of the two possibilities is more likely to be reality, but ill leave it up to u to argue whichever case youd like to...
If u choose option 1, seriously good luck defending the position that not only is college basketball player evaluation hugely different than nba pro personnel evaluation but also that he's somehow good at one while being simultaneously terrible at the other; if u choose option 2 then Hammond either gets credit for being lucky and/or credit for being skilled/lucky at picking college scouts and valuing+listening to their opinions but no credit at all for being a skilled talent evaluator...

[whatthe_buck!?]

I just want to be clear that I don't think Tobias is that guy long term. I just think that people who are pointing out that he's been productive in his opportunities are discounting the fact that a disproportionate amount of his opportunities have come with nothing at stake, and that he really has not been very good otherwise. Blame the guards or the offense we run all you want, but those things haven't seemed to hurt Dunleavy.

I miss old emmuney that really believed in Tobias being a great get at 19 more than just about any other poster and who believed that based on his offensive skill around the basket at such young age that he had a chance to be a really good NBA small forward...

[emunney]

Nah, when I said I don't think he's that guy long term, I meant I don't think he's Garbage Time Guy long term. I do think that's what he was for us, though.

I still think he's got a chance to be a really good NBA small forward. If I was going to bet, I'd say average starter.

[whatthe_buck!?]

Nah, when I said I don't think he's that guy long term, I meant I don't think he's Garbage Time Guy long term. I do think that's what he was for us, though.

I still think he's got a chance to be a really good NBA small forward. If I was going to bet, I'd say average starter.

Ah, context fail by me then, my bad.

And since you're paying attention to this thread and because I respect ur opinion, out if curiosity -and i realize ur prediction for Tobes is average starter at sf-, but if hypothetically he becomes a top 10 SF in his prime and we get maybe three more good years out of Redick at around the level he was playing this season on the Magic would you choose trading Tobes for Redick or choosing Ellis and unloading Sjax over steph curry as the bigger blunder?

[emunney]

Assuming everything else remains pretty much steady and assuming Curry remains reasonably healthy, then Curry by a landslide. I respect your opinion too, what's your take?

[whatthe_buck!?]

Assuming everything else remains pretty much steady and assuming Curry remains reasonably healthy, then Curry by a landslide. I respect your opinion too, what's your take?

Holding everything else constant, my take is its Curry by a landslide up until u reach the hypothetical threshold of Tobes becoming a a top 10 sf whereby its gets fairly close in favor of the curry decision, and once u get to allstar /top 5 sf in the NBA, I think it becomes either dead even or maybe even tips the scales in favor of trading Tobes being the greater mistake because even though I do think Redick is a better player than Ellis we didn't get significantly older by picking Ellis over Curry in the Bogut trade like we did by choosing Redick over Tobes plus Curry did have the concern about his chronic ankle problems. Then the question becomes how likely it is that Tobes reaches those levels and I'd put him becoming top 10 is 40% and top 5 at like 5/1 or 6/1... You?

[mattg]

If you get 3 more good years out of Redick at a decent price then the move isn't bad at all IMO. Not getting curry because he rolled his ankle a few times is just stupid.

[jtrinaldi]

If you get 3 more good years out of Redick at a decent price then the move isn't bad at all IMO. Not getting curry because he rolled his ankle a few times is just stupid.

This is my ideal offseason
1. Lock Larry up
2 .Sign Smoove for whatever it takes
3. Sign Redick for 6-8 mill per year.
4. Let BJ Walk
5. Figure out PG

[Nebula1]

sack herb kohl

[paul]

I just want to be clear that I don't think Tobias is that guy long term. I just think that people who are pointing out that he's been productive in his opportunities are discounting the fact that a disproportionate amount of his opportunities have come with nothing at stake, and that he really has not been very good otherwise. Blame the guards or the offense we run all you want, but those things haven't seemed to hurt Dunleavy.

I'm hoping most of that was tongue in cheek em.

[paulpressey25]

Nah, when I said I don't think he's that guy long term, I meant I don't think he's Garbage Time Guy long term. I do think that's what he was for us, though.

I still think he's got a chance to be a really good NBA small forward. If I was going to bet, I'd say average starter.

That is really the crux of it. Corliss Williamson averaged 17/6 his third year in the league but he's not a guy I'd lose sleep over trading, although you can still argue it is asset mismanagement. The problem is if he becomes even an average move the needle guy along the impact of say a David West or an even better guy.

I don't see this particular move though as dooming us for a decade but who knows. I see organizational problems that run much deeper than trading Tobias for Redick.

[WRau1]

Tobias Harris will be better than anyone on this roster, except Sanders, next year.

[paul]

Nah, when I said I don't think he's that guy long term, I meant I don't think he's Garbage Time Guy long term. I do think that's what he was for us, though.

I still think he's got a chance to be a really good NBA small forward. If I was going to bet, I'd say average starter.

That is really the crux of it. Corliss Williamson averaged 17/6 his third year in the league but he's not a guy I'd lose sleep over trading, although you can still argue it is asset mismanagement. The problem is if he becomes even an average move the needle guy along the impact of say a David West or an even better guy.

I don't see this particular move though as dooming us for a decade but who knows. I see organizational problems that run much deeper than trading Tobias for Redick.

And how many times have I read that last from you in the last few years Press? (Not being smart, I know you agree).

Death by a thousand cuts is still death, and it hurts like sh*t.

Aside from that you're underselling the level epic ballsup this trade entails. Honestly, and I realize how flippant and ridiculous this will read to you, but right now I couldn't give a **** about the backroom incompetence. I couldn't even give a **** just how crap Herb is as an owner. Just STOP trading good players for bad or irrelevant ones. Please. That's not asking too much.

And again, I like Redick.

[paul]

Tobias Harris will be better than anyone on this roster, except Sanders, next year.

I'm not certain of that, but the fact that it's possible is more than enough reason to burn down the BC, figuratively speaking.

[paulpressey25]

Paul, I'm just getting numb to it. The even bigger blunder last week could be that they didn't set themselves up for any summer moves by maximizing assets and trading one of those two guards.

Now you understand how I felt when we passed on Brook Lopez in order to draft Potsie. And then eight months later we botch the David Lee trade and let Ramon walk. On top of not trading Redd for Wally or Raef when offered in January 2009, a week before Redd blew out the ACL, because Hammonds thought he could get "more" at the trade deadline a month later.

[paul]

Paul, I'm just getting numb to it. The even bigger blunder last week could be that they didn't set themselves up for any summer moves by maximizing assets and trading one of those two guards.

Now you understand how I felt when we passed on Brook Lopez in order to draft Potsie. And then eight months later we botch the David Lee trade and let Ramon walk. On top of not trading Redd for Wally or Raef when offered in January 2009, a week before Redd blew out the ACL, because Hammonds thought he could get "more" at the trade deadline a month later.

I get it, but all of those things had at least some mitigating factors.

This didn't. You don't trade the talented kid for a 3 month rental of a solid vet unless it's going to get you a championship. Ever. End of discussion.

None of those other ones were like this, hell even the sheer stupidity involved in bringing in Monta wasn't like this.

Regardless of how Tobias Harris turns out, and I sincerely mean that 100% regardless of whether he never scores another point in his life or not, the thought process behind making this trade was idiotic to a level that until it was made I honestly didn't think we were capable of. I know I shouldn't be surprised, but I genuinely am. It's just killed me.

This is easily the stupidest thing any sporting franchise I've ever followed has done, and believe me given my thoughts on our last deadline that's really saying something.