ortg vs points per play

lorak · Post #1 » by **lorak** » Thu Feb 28, 2013 10:16 pm

Which one is better? Basically the only difference are offensive rebounds - in ortg they keep possesions "live", in ppp they give new play. So why ortg is more often used?

SideshowBob · Post #2 » by **SideshowBob** » Fri Mar 1, 2013 1:29 am

I don't see why we should penalize teams for extending possessions with offensive rebounds. It's up to teams whether they believe that its in their best interests to crash the offensive glass as opposed to quickly get back on defense, so if that's the strategy they want to employ, why should we penalize them for it, considering its a legitimate basketball play and the entire point is to make the possession longer?

On the flip-side, why would you use points-per-play over ORTG?

lorak · Post #3 » by **lorak** » Fri Mar 1, 2013 8:43 am

SideshowBob wrote:I don't see why we should penalize teams for extending possessions with offensive rebounds. It's up to teams whether they believe that its in their best interests to crash the offensive glass as opposed to quickly get back on defense, so if that's the strategy they want to employ, why should we penalize them for it, considering its a legitimate basketball play and the entire point is to make the possession longer?

On the flip-side, why would you use points-per-play over ORTG?

As a coach I would like to know which of my plays works better than other. Ortg wouldn't tell mi that, because on one possession team could have two orbs, so 3 different plays - two of them missed FG and only one made FG. But ortg would tell it's positive, when in reality my team had two bad plays and one good. So based on ppp I could adjust my team's offense (I know which plays works and which no) and in long run it would be better.

ronnymac2 · Post #4 » by **ronnymac2** » Fri Mar 1, 2013 6:40 pm

Use both then.

ElGee · Post #5 » by **ElGee** » Fri Mar 1, 2013 11:18 pm

Rebounding is connected to the shot. OREB spikes when the defense is scrambled because an offensive player no longer has someone between him and the basket. Your plays are "working" if you get an easy put back.

lorak · Post #6 » by **lorak** » Sat Mar 2, 2013 7:44 am

So why synergy is using plays instead of ortg?

ElGee · Post #7 » by **ElGee** » Sun Mar 3, 2013 6:37 pm

Because they are isolating individuals and types of plays. The possession can have multiple plays.

Post #8 » by **Doctor MJ** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 1:26 am

ronnymac2 wrote:Use both then.

Pretty much all there is to it.

Doormatt · Post #9 » by **Doormatt** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 4:18 am

ElGee wrote:Rebounding is connected to the shot. OREB spikes when the defense is scrambled because an offensive player no longer has someone between him and the basket. Your plays are "working" if you get an easy put back.

yeah i feel like this should be obvious, no? i mean if you are getting a good offensive play, then you are likely to get a better chance at an offensive rebound because the defense is more likely to be out of position. i mean maybe an exception would be is if you have an amazing offensive rebounder on the court that could skew that but it would be so rare and a unique situation.

lorak · Post #10 » by **lorak** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 6:28 pm

ElGee wrote:Because they are isolating individuals and types of plays.

But why they are isolating individuals and teams too - they judge teams offensive efficiency by ppp, not ortg: why they chose to do so if ortg is better indicator of team strength? (is it really, any research to prove that?)

Chicago76 · Post #11 » by **Chicago76** » Sat Apr 6, 2013 4:32 am

DavidStern wrote:
ElGee wrote:Because they are isolating individuals and types of plays.

But why they are isolating individuals and teams too - they judge teams offensive efficiency by ppp, not ortg: why they chose to do so if ortg is better indicator of team strength? (is it really, any research to prove that?)

I don't think there really needs to be any research on that. It's intuitive when you break it down. Apart from end of clock issues, possessions are equal in basketball. The team with the higher ortg will always win. Plays aren't equal, so the team with the highest PPP won't always win (due to ORBs). Taking it a step further, we could exclude TOVs as well, in which case you'd be left looking at TS%. TS% is the most significant factor w/ respect to game outcome, but it would be inferior to PPP (which accounts for TOVs), which in turn is inferior to Ortg (which accounts for ORBs).

PPP is just another way of slicing what teams are doing in the course of a possession to help identify relative strengths and weaknesses, but in and of itself it's not going to tell give you a complete picture of how a team is performing offensively. You could break things down much further to get a statisical handle on the nuts and bolts of a team's offense:
-FTA/poss and FT%
-3PA/poss and 3P%
-2PA/poss and 2P%
...that's the scoring side
-TOV% (a possession termination component)
-ORB% (the possession extension component)

I don't have much use for PPP at the team level, because if I really want to know how a team is functioning offensive, I find it much more useful to compare the 8 items above and compare them to lg avg.