Official Tobias Harris watch thread (The End)

[-Jragon-]

This is what should be obvious, but our fans overvalue our guys. As much as I wanted him to get minutes over Daniels and Moute at times, truthfully his feet are very slow for covering 3's. Anyone can score on him; he's like the Drew Gooden of SF so he fit right in on our bench.

[JimmyTheKid]

Steve von Horn of BH has a new article on Harris:

http://www.brewhoop.com/2013/3/1/404193 ... -bucks-nba

He's missing the reason many of us hated the trade. (at the time of the trade, not in hindsight) And it has nothing to do with Harris' stat lines. Like I said, I'd still be fired up about the trade if Tobias' first three box scores read DNP-Coach's Decision, DNP-Coach's Decision, DNP-Coach's Decision.

[Kerb Hohl]

Steve von Horn of BH has a new article on Harris:

http://www.brewhoop.com/2013/3/1/404193 ... -bucks-nba

He's missing the reason many of us hated the trade. (at the time of the trade, not in hindsight) And it has nothing to do with Harris' stat lines. Like I said, I'd still be fired up about the trade if Tobias' first three box scores read DNP-Coach's Decision, DNP-Coach's Decision, DNP-Coach's Decision.

This entire thread is people acknowleding that. I don't think anybody likes the trade.

The whole argument so far is whether these 3 games already legitimize Tobias as a budding player and one of the worst trades we've ever seen or just a ho-hum trade where we gave up a solid prospect for a rental stupidly. One that should not have been made but isn't franchise-destroying (as if this one hasn't been destroyed enough).

SVH seems to have more of a "let's recreate FTD" mindset but I think anyone who understands the Bucks realizes that they have horrible tendencies around knowing where the franchise sits at the deadline.

[Wooderson]

The only thing that makes the BH article pretty lacking is that there's a strong possibility the writer didn't watch any of the action nor even the replays. Like it says in the article all he's been doing is scoreboard watching.

Sure defenses are more lax at the end of games, but most of Tobias's moves were taking guys off the dribble one-on-one and finishing with a floater or semi layup as well as from iso jumpers. Those are the type of shots that make someone a 20 ppg scorer and are the very reason many of us are so high on him. It's not like other ORL players are breaking down the defense and Tobias is left wide open on the weakside.

Defense is another story, and something I haven't paid as much attention to during his time on the court in ORL. Although I will say it comes off a bit biased to downgrade Tobes offensive production because it's garbage time and then in the same vein point out the the Magic's team defense has been poor. I thought his entire point there is that team defense stinks during those types of situations, thus it makes little sense to single out Tobes for the Magic's trouble as a team.

/response to the Tobes bat signal

[InsideOut]

...

[Kerb Hohl]

The only thing that makes the BH article pretty lacking is that there's a strong possibility the writer didn't watch any of the action nor even the replays. Like it says in the article all he's been doing is scoreboard watching.

Sure defenses are more lax at the end of games, but most of Tobias's moves were taking guys off the dribble one-on-one and finishing with a floater or semi layup as well as from iso jumpers. Those are the type of shots that make someone a 20 ppg scorer and are the very reason many of us are so high on him. It's not like other ORL players are breaking down the defense and Tobias is left wide open on the weakside.

Defense is another story, and something I haven't paid as much attention to during his time on the court in ORL. Although I will say it comes off a bit biased to downgrade Tobes offensive production because it's garbage time and then in the same vein point out the the Magic's team defense has been poor. I thought his entire point there is that team defense stinks during those types of situations, thus it makes little sense to single out Tobes for the Magic's trouble as a team.

/response to the Tobes bat signal

I know that I was getting disregarded for not being an avid Bucks-watcher the past few years, but I do see an issue. OBVIOUSLY there are things you need to watch. That said, there are some things you can see that look really good against bad players. Those are great signs but you can also fool yourself a bit by watching.

Of course, I'll get ripped for this, I'm just saying that his numbers in this very small sample aren't great when the game is in question. Obviously he can keep improving and they eventually could be.

Hell, I don't watch any minor league baseball or too many out-of-market games and I can tell you what a player will do in the league by looking at his numbers and dissecting who it was against, what stadium, etc. I'm not saying this is the better way to analyze things, but there are two aspects. There's "Trouble with the Curve" where you see if a guy is worthy of playing in the league by the eye test and "Moneyball" where you go the extra mile and see who actually does things that win and find places where the numbers may lie.

Some hitter may have a "sweet swing" that especially looks like it against AAA pitching. Give him a large sample against MLB pitching and suddenly he has a .310 OBP because he can't speed up to the MLB fastball and he doesn't have patience at the plate. Tobias may have that sweet swing, the patience, and ability to hold his own even against MLB pitching but we haven't seen a sample of that yet.

[europa]

It always struck me as odd that Harris was being raked over the coals for his defense while playing behind three players who also have massive flaws in their games.

Dunleavy - can't defend Yi's chair

Moute - extremely lacking offensively

Daniels - isn't very good

Dunleavy and Moute do bring positive things to the table. But so does/did Harris. Curiously, though, Harris' offensive skills (which the team badly needed to use) weren't given any consideration. Instead only his supposed weaknesses were focused on unlike the players ahead of him on the depth chart, who were all allowed to have their weaknesses conveniently overlooked.

[Kerb Hohl]

He's being held in that light because right now people are talking about him being a top 50, maybe even top 20 player eventually. Those other guys you mentioned are being treated as role players, right now because of these last 3 games and what they saw in him while he was still here he is being talked about as a special player...so he can't have those weaknesses or he's going to be just like a Moute/Dunleavy/etc. eventually. If that's what he ends up being, is it a serious sin that they traded him for Reddick in hindsight?

[Ayt]

Steve von Horn from BH did the dirty work on Garbage Time Theory.

http://www.brewhoop.com/2013/3/1/404193 ... -bucks-nba

Harris has played 86 minutes for the Magic. Here's the breakdown: 39 of those minutes have come with Orlando down by double digits -- including 24 with Orlando down by 20 points or more.

As it turns out, Harris has propped up his production during garbage time. He's 11-13 from the field with Orlando down 20+ points, which means he's 10-18 in more high-leverage situations.

I'd have liked it if he had a breakdown of Tobias on the Bucks as well, but I guess I can only expect so much analysis from a Bucks blog on a Magic player.

In his favor, he did drop 9 in 12 minutes on 4-4 shooting in the 1st half against Philly. Orlando was down 1 when he exited in the 2nd.

[Ayt]

This is what should be obvious, but our fans overvalue our guys. As much as I wanted him to get minutes over Daniels and Moute at times, truthfully his feet are very slow for covering 3's. Anyone can score on him; he's like the Drew Gooden of SF so he fit right in on our bench.

Point out all the games he's been scored on like he's Drew Gooden. You make him sound like Mike Dunleavy. Even when Tobes was here, it wasn't like teams would target him as a mismatch and go after him on possession after possession.

I wonder how long it will be before people acknowledge how wrong this is.

[Kerb Hohl]

If you like him so much why don't you marry him?

[Ayt]

The only thing that makes the BH article pretty lacking is that there's a strong possibility the writer didn't watch any of the action nor even the replays. Like it says in the article all he's been doing is scoreboard watching.

Sure defenses are more lax at the end of games, but most of Tobias's moves were taking guys off the dribble one-on-one and finishing with a floater or semi layup as well as from iso jumpers. Those are the type of shots that make someone a 20 ppg scorer and are the very reason many of us are so high on him. It's not like other ORL players are breaking down the defense and Tobias is left wide open on the weakside.

Defense is another story, and something I haven't paid as much attention to during his time on the court in ORL. Although I will say it comes off a bit biased to downgrade Tobes offensive production because it's garbage time and then in the same vein point out the the Magic's team defense has been poor. I thought his entire point there is that team defense stinks during those types of situations, thus it makes little sense to single out Tobes for the Magic's trouble as a team.

/response to the Tobes bat signal

I know that I was getting disregarded for not being an avid Bucks-watcher the past few years, but I do see an issue. OBVIOUSLY there are things you need to watch. That said, there are some things you can see that look really good against bad players. Those are great signs but you can also fool yourself a bit by watching.

Of course, I'll get ripped for this, I'm just saying that his numbers in this very small sample aren't great when the game is in question. Obviously he can keep improving and they eventually could be.

Hell, I don't watch any minor league baseball or too many out-of-market games and I can tell you what a player will do in the league by looking at his numbers and dissecting who it was against, what stadium, etc. I'm not saying this is the better way to analyze things, but there are two aspects. There's "Trouble with the Curve" where you see if a guy is worthy of playing in the league by the eye test and "Moneyball" where you go the extra mile and see who actually does things that win and find places where the numbers may lie.

Some hitter may have a "sweet swing" that especially looks like it against AAA pitching. Give him a large sample against MLB pitching and suddenly he has a .310 OBP because he can't speed up to the MLB fastball and he doesn't have patience at the plate. Tobias may have that sweet swing, the patience, and ability to hold his own even against MLB pitching but we haven't seen a sample of that yet.

Basketball isn't like baseball when it comes to being able to project how young players will fair as they move up in competition. There is a lot more noise involved.

Beyond that, as someone who never watches games, what didn't impress you about Tobias statistically when he was a Buck? His per minute production was excellent for a young player who wasn't getting any plays run for him in a role that didn't suit his skills. He's the type of player someone like you should predict will do very well with more minutes and more usage given his statistical production with the Bucks.

[Kerb Hohl]

His competition.

[Ayt]

His competition.

Starters? 80% of his minutes this year came as a starter. His per36 as a starter this year were 14.8-6.3 with a TS% of .576.

Why would someone who doesn't watch games and relies on statistics not love that type of production out of such a young player?

[Kerb Hohl]

His competition.

Starters?

Is there a sample bigger than a few quarters that shows him that in a good light?

[europa]

I'll continue to cite Harris' production when given 20+ minutes per game. It's rather impressive offensively. If the focus is going to be on his competition let's do that as well. Last season he had three games against playoff teams. Since some here will likely lose their minds I'll toss out the final game of the season against Boston. Here were his results in the other two games:

27 minutes vs. Denver - 14 points/8 rebounds on 50% shooting
29.5 minutes vs. Chicago - 19 points on 57.1% shooting

This season he opened the year with 18 points on 73% shooting vs. Boston. He then had double-digit points in games against Indiana, Miami and Chicago while shooting at least 50% from the floor in each of those games.

Sure is easy to see why Skiles eventually benched him and the Bucks dumped him. He clearly wasn't doing well at all against good teams.

[jr lucosa]

Going by the eye test Tobes was not very good vs starting SF's around the league for the most part although it wsas not the biggest sample size. There were definite issues with the offense and his play style but he also wasn't aggressive for **** and shouldn't get a complete pass.

To me he is a guy who will consistently put up good TS and what not, but he's got a lot of that black hole, iso type offense to his game. Not a great passer and will commit some TO's, seems to have tunnel vision. I really believe in Tobes but I see a good chance he becomes known as a 3/4 tweener Al Jefferson without the motivational issues. Guys like that can put up great numbers and do a lot of offensive damage single handedly, but it is hard to build successful offenses with players like that.

All that being said I'd still love to have him in a Bucks uni and definitely think his value will only rise from here

[Kerb Hohl]

I'll continue to cite Harris' production when given 20+ minutes per game. It's rather impressive offensively. If the focus is going to be on his competition let's do that as well. Last season he had three games against playoff teams. Since some here will likely lose their minds I'll toss out the final game of the season against Boston. Here were his results in the other two games:

27 minutes vs. Denver - 14 points/8 rebounds on 50% shooting
29.5 minutes vs. Chicago - 19 points on 57.1% shooting

This season he opened the year with 18 points on 73% shooting vs. Boston. He then had double-digit points in games against Indiana, Miami and Chicago while shooting at least 50% from the floor in each of those games.

Sure is easy to see why Skiles eventually benched him and the Bucks dumped him. He clearly wasn't doing well at all against good teams.

He had 2 successful games out of about what, 20-30 where he either didn't do anything or faced inferior players late in the game?

I went searching for your games and accidentally stumbled across quite a few where he was irrelevant.

[europa]

He had 2 successful games out of about what, 20-30 where he either didn't do anything or faced inferior players late in the game?

No, he had two successful games among the few when he received a legitimate opportunity for minutes. You weren't impressed by his competition. Turns out when he got to play decent minutes against good teams he did well offensively. What makes it even more impressive was the fact he had no legitimate role in the offense other than standing in a corner so the Chuck Twins could hoist up shot after shot after shot in many of those games.

Again, the production speaks for itself. The sample size is small because the Bucks were too ignorant to utilize him more.

[Wooderson]

I'll continue to cite Harris' production when given 20+ minutes per game. It's rather impressive offensively. If the focus is going to be on his competition let's do that as well. Last season he had three games against playoff teams. Since some here will likely lose their minds I'll toss out the final game of the season against Boston. Here were his results in the other two games:

27 minutes vs. Denver - 14 points/8 rebounds on 50% shooting
29.5 minutes vs. Chicago - 19 points on 57.1% shooting

This season he opened the year with 18 points on 73% shooting vs. Boston. He then had double-digit points in games against Indiana, Miami and Chicago while shooting at least 50% from the floor in each of those games.

Sure is easy to see why Skiles eventually benched him and the Bucks dumped him. He clearly wasn't doing well at all against good teams.

He had 2 successful games out of about what, 20-30 where he either didn't do anything or faced inferior players late in the game?

I went searching for your games and accidentally stumbled across quite a few where he was irrelevant.

He's 20 years old, does he have to consistently dominate for belief that he has a good chance to be an all-star be credible?