The OFFICIAL rookie impressions thread pt.III

[Dupp]

8 games to 12 is a pretty big difference too. It doesnt really matter though, both are playing great which is whats important.

[nate33]

Here are the per-36 minute numbers for Lillard, Beal and Waiters since January 1st.

Code: Select all

          MP    FGA   FTA   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV  PTS   eFG%   TS%
Lillard   36   14.7   3.1   2.9   6.0   0.8   0.3   2.9  17.0  .488  .529
Beal      36   14.1   3.3   4.2   2.6   1.1   0.6   1.5  17.6  .542  .566
Waiters   36   16.1   5.2   3.0   3.9   1.0   0.4   2.6  19.9  .496  .544

Lillard actually played 39.2 minutes to Beal's 33.8 and Waiters' 27.8 so you can weigh that however you deem fit. Also Lillard started every game, Beal started 21 of 24, and Waiters started 18 or 27, so you can get an idea of who played against starting-caliber defenses and who played against backups.

I hope these numbers show why Beal and Waiters supporters don't automatically cede anything to Lillard. Lillard started strong, but Beal and Lillard have played just as well ever since. Beal is by far the most efficient of the three, and Waiters is the most prolific.

When we're talking about Rookie of the Year, Lillard still has the clear edge because he has done it all season. But if we're talking about who is currently the better player, and who projects to be the better player in the future, Beal and Waiters have a strong case. Also, Lillard is 22, Waiters is 21, and Beal is 19.

[oikosnomos]

I think Waiters and Beal deserved to be mentioned in ROY, but if I had to vote for a winner, it's going to Lillard all day. He has been that guy all year and he has won the Blazers multiple games with his play and big shots down the stretch. Beal and/or Waiters would have to step up and do some spectacular stuff to take it away from Lillard this year.

[Niko23]

Props to my boy Dion.....

[DCsOwn]

8 games to 12 is a pretty big difference too. It doesnt really matter though, both are playing great which is whats important.

My thoughts exactly.

[fishnc]

Here are the per-36 minute numbers for Lillard, Beal and Waiters since January 1st.

Code: Select all

          MP    FGA   FTA   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV  PTS   eFG%   TS%
Lillard   36   14.7   3.1   2.9   6.0   0.8   0.3   2.9  17.0  .488  .529
Beal      36   14.1   3.3   4.2   2.6   1.1   0.6   1.5  17.6  .542  .566
Waiters   36   16.1   5.2   3.0   3.9   1.0   0.4   2.6  19.9  .496  .544

Lillard actually played 39.2 minutes to Beal's 33.8 and Waiters' 27.8 so you can weigh that however you deem fit. Also Lillard started every game, Beal started 21 of 24, and Waiters started 18 or 27, so you can get an idea of who played against starting-caliber defenses and who played against backups.

I hope these numbers show why Beal and Waiters supporters don't automatically cede anything to Lillard. Lillard started strong, but Beal and Lillard have played just as well ever since. Beal is by far the most efficient of the three, and Waiters is the most prolific.

When we're talking about Rookie of the Year, Lillard still has the clear edge because he has done it all season. But if we're talking about who is currently the better player, and who projects to be the better player in the future, Beal and Waiters have a strong case. Also, Lillard is 22, Waiters is 21, and Beal is 19.

Too bad for Beal and Waiters that Rookie of the Year isn't handed out based on hypothetical production for one third of the season.

[nate33]

Here are the per-36 minute numbers for Lillard, Beal and Waiters since January 1st.

Code: Select all

          MP    FGA   FTA   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV  PTS   eFG%   TS%
Lillard   36   14.7   3.1   2.9   6.0   0.8   0.3   2.9  17.0  .488  .529
Beal      36   14.1   3.3   4.2   2.6   1.1   0.6   1.5  17.6  .542  .566
Waiters   36   16.1   5.2   3.0   3.9   1.0   0.4   2.6  19.9  .496  .544

Lillard actually played 39.2 minutes to Beal's 33.8 and Waiters' 27.8 so you can weigh that however you deem fit. Also Lillard started every game, Beal started 21 of 24, and Waiters started 18 or 27, so you can get an idea of who played against starting-caliber defenses and who played against backups.

I hope these numbers show why Beal and Waiters supporters don't automatically cede anything to Lillard. Lillard started strong, but Beal and Lillard have played just as well ever since. Beal is by far the most efficient of the three, and Waiters is the most prolific.

When we're talking about Rookie of the Year, Lillard still has the clear edge because he has done it all season. But if we're talking about who is currently the better player, and who projects to be the better player in the future, Beal and Waiters have a strong case. Also, Lillard is 22, Waiters is 21, and Beal is 19.

Too bad for Beal and Waiters that Rookie of the Year isn't handed out based on hypothetical production for one third of the season.

What part of:

When we're talking about Rookie of the Year, Lillard still has the clear edge because he has done it all season.

did you not understand?

[GhostsOfGil]

Too bad for Beal and Waiters that Rookie of the Year isn't handed out based on hypothetical production for one third of the season.

Do you know what the word hypothetical means?

[B-easy]

Too bad for Beal and Waiters that Rookie of the Year isn't handed out based on hypothetical production for one third of the season.

made yourself look foolish.

[marsblazer]

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

[fishnc]

Too bad for Beal and Waiters that Rookie of the Year isn't handed out based on hypothetical production for one third of the season.

What part of:

When we're talking about Rookie of the Year, Lillard still has the clear edge because he has done it all season.

did you not understand?

?

I was agreeing with you.

Do you know what the word hypothetical means?

Do you?

made yourself look foolish.

Strong argument.

[nuposse04]

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

I don't think its a good extrapolation for players playing under 15 mins a game, but for players getting significant minutes, say 22-27 mins a game, it isn't a terrible projection as to how a player will perform.

Beal played close to 34 and Lillard a little above at 39, so comparing those two per 36 doesn't seem like "bad" use of the statistic. Waiters IMO played significant minutes at close to 28, so his per 36 seems valid as well.

[Hero]

Ross has looked really bad lately. If he doesn't improve greatly in the off season I don't see him lasting very long in the league. His shot is really bad but what's more concerning is how badly he misses. So many airballs. Also did not get to the line for February.

[Wizenheimer]

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

I don't think its a good extrapolation for players playing under 15 mins a game, but for players getting significant minutes, say 22-27 mins a game, it isn't a terribly projection as to how a player will perform.

Beal played close to 34 and Lillard a little above at 39, so comparing those two per 36 doesn't seem like "bad" use of the statistic. Waiters IMO played significant minutes at close to 28, so his per 36 seems valid as well.

this is true to a significant extent

However, we do know that at some point a player is going to be at the optimal number of minutes for efficiency and production. Past that optimal point, the efficiency and production rates will drop

And that is going to be especially true for a rookie. Lillard plays such heavy minutes because Portland's bench is historically bad. And that's being kind. Having watched him all season, I don't think there's any doubt that Lillard is playing more then his optimal average minutes. And my take is that is costing him efficiency, as well as production rates

I think it's also a case there's a specific disadvantage for Lillard to be compared to players like Beal and Waiters in that, unlike Lillard, they are not consistently responsible for running the team's offense. Portland relies heavily on Lillard to get them into their offense and initiate plays for other players. This is costing Lillard some efficiency and production

and example of that: Lillard averages 0.99 points/possession on isolation plays. That ranks 10th among all NBA players, which is pretty impressive for a rookie. Compare that 0.99 points/possession to the 0.86 points/possession that Lillard averages on P&R. That only ranks 28th in the league. The problem is that only 15% of Lillard's plays are isolation while 44% are P&R. That's because of teammates like Aldridge. Aldridge averages 1.01 points/possession on P&R compared to 0.91 on post-up. So Lillard is required to sacrifice some personal scoring efficiency in order to initiate optimal plays for Aldridge

I'm also pretty certain that neither Beal or Waiters (or Davis or Drummond) have been the season-long focus of all opposing defenses. Lillard is constantly doubled to try and force the ball out of his hands. Lillard has been able to accomplish what he has against significantly higher defensive resistance then the other rookies have faced

all this isn't to say that Beal and Waiters have not had good rookie seasons. They have. But Lillard has had a better season...so far...while having more responsibility and facing more pressure

[Jon1798]

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

You believe wrong. Per 36 numbers show what a player has done in 36 minutes of court time. Unless they have played less than 36 minutes total on the season, it's simply averaging their actual production without an individual game cutoff. There is nothing hypothetical about it.

[xprt]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o2GegFTTxA&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[GhostsOfGil]

^ Love the footwork at 12 seconds.

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

You believe wrong. Per 36 numbers show what a player has done in 36 minutes of court time. Unless they have played less than 36 minutes total on the season, it's simply averaging their actual production without an individual game cutoff. There is nothing hypothetical about it.

Thank you Jon. That is how I interrupted it as well.

[nuposse04]

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

I don't think its a good extrapolation for players playing under 15 mins a game, but for players getting significant minutes, say 22-27 mins a game, it isn't a terribly projection as to how a player will perform.

Beal played close to 34 and Lillard a little above at 39, so comparing those two per 36 doesn't seem like "bad" use of the statistic. Waiters IMO played significant minutes at close to 28, so his per 36 seems valid as well.

this is true to a significant extent

However, we do know that at some point a player is going to be at the optimal number of minutes for efficiency and production. Past that optimal point, the efficiency and production rates will drop

And that is going to be especially true for a rookie. Lillard plays such heavy minutes because Portland's bench is historically bad. And that's being kind. Having watched him all season, I don't think there's any doubt that Lillard is playing more then his optimal average minutes. And my take is that is costing him efficiency, as well as production rates

I think it's also a case there's a specific disadvantage for Lillard to be compared to players like Beal and Waiters in that, unlike Lillard, they are not consistently responsible for running the team's offense. Portland relies heavily on Lillard to get them into their offense and initiate plays for other players. This is costing Lillard some efficiency and production

and example of that: Lillard averages 0.99 points/possession on isolation plays. That ranks 10th among all NBA players, which is pretty impressive for a rookie. Compare that 0.99 points/possession to the 0.86 points/possession that Lillard averages on P&R. That only ranks 28th in the league. The problem is that only 15% of Lillard's plays are isolation while 44% are P&R. That's because of teammates like Aldridge. Aldridge averages 1.01 points/possession on P&R compared to 0.91 on post-up. So Lillard is required to sacrifice some personal scoring efficiency in order to initiate optimal plays for Aldridge

I'm also pretty certain that neither Beal or Waiters (or Davis or Drummond) have been the season-long focus of all opposing defenses. Lillard is constantly doubled to try and force the ball out of his hands. Lillard has been able to accomplish what he has against significantly higher defensive resistance then the other rookies have faced

all this isn't to say that Beal and Waiters have not had good rookie seasons. They have. But Lillard has had a better season...so far...while having more responsibility and facing more pressure

To be fair, it isn't like Lillard is averaging 44 minutes a game, more like 38-39. That seems relatively close to a per 36 extrapolation so I'm not sure how much more efficient he would be be by playing 2 minutes less a game.

PG is hard position to be efficient at, especially for a rookie, but he's also 22, being 19...I have to imagine a seasoned Beal would be even more productive than he is now. Part of Beal's game that is so promising is that he isn't ball dominant. It is useful to have superior ISO players in critical moments but Beal is giving analogous production without commanding the Ball for most of the shot clock, he's also an underrated passer.

As far as defensive orientation goes...Beal had his fair share of double teams but not to the extent Lillard may have. If anything Beal gets more attention right now. He's arguably the best player on the wizards after Nene. Teams would rather force Wall to beat them (which is looking to be like our Achilles heel). He's pretty damn good on the defensive end for a teenager as well. I honestly believe he has 2nd team all defensive team potential.

With regards to Waiters though, 28 minutes a game is significant...but he might be having an efficiency drop off if you added 8 more minutes...how much...I'm not sure...His game seems to be predicated on driving more than shooting, for an athlete like him I can't see him messing up dunks and layups too much more in more playing time. He is streaky as far as jumpshooting goes.

[Wizenheimer]

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

You believe wrong. Per 36 numbers show what a player has done in 36 minutes of court time. Unless they have played less than 36 minutes total on the season, it's simply averaging their actual production without an individual game cutoff. There is nothing hypothetical about it.

if a player isn't averaging 36 minutes and you project his numbers to what they would be if he averaged 36 minutes, that definitely fits the definition of hypothetical

[DCsOwn]

I do believe per36 numbers are HYPOTHETICAL...since it means it's my hypothesis that if these players played 36 minutes this is what their stats would be...hypothetically

You believe wrong. Per 36 numbers show what a player has done in 36 minutes of court time. Unless they have played less than 36 minutes total on the season, it's simply averaging their actual production without an individual game cutoff. There is nothing hypothetical about it.

if a player isn't averaging 36 minutes and you project his numbers to what they would be if he averaged 36 minutes, that definitely fits the definition of hypothetical

It's not a projection of production per start, it's a reflection of production a player gives per 36 minutes of game action. In other words, for every 36 minutes the player has played, he has given you this amount of points or rebounds etc. on average. So it's not a hypothetical, just a different metric to use to evaluate past performance. It's the diametric opposite of a hypothetical actually.