Can the Clippers Get #1?

[og15]

With Parker going down for 4 weeks, some feel that #1 is more open. SA is a monster at home and play most of their games at home, so that might be much less realistic than it seems. Either way, let's have some prediction fun with it.

Check out the remaining games for the top 3 seeds, make your predictions, and see if the Clippers can get #1. Don't forget to make the same prediction on each schedule when the teams face each other . Second game of back to backs are highlighted.

These would be the teams final records assuming the same home and road win percentages:
San Antonio: 18-4 (64-18)
Oklahoma City: 17-7 (59-23)
LA Clippers: 16-5 (59-23)

So the #2 seed definitely looks achievable for the Clippers, but OKC already has the tie breaker, so the Clippers will need to beat their record to get the #2 and HCA in the second round assuming both them and OKC beat their first round opponents.

Spurs need to go 13-9 (.591) or lower in order to be at 60 wins or less. Clippers and OKC will most likely need to win at the least 60 games to get #1, and that's best case.

Spurs (53-17)
19 games remaining: 7 Home / 5 Road
Home: 30-4 / Road: 23-13
vs Denver
vs LA Clippers
vs Miami
@ Memphis
vs Orlando
@ OKC
vs Atlanta
@ Denver
vs Sacramento
@ LA Lakers
@ Golden State
vs Minnesota

OKC (52-19)
20 games remaining: 5 Home / 5 Road
Home: 31-5 / Road: 21-14
vs Washington
@ Minnesota
@ Milwaukee
vs San Antonio
@ Indiana
vs New York
@ Utah
@ Golden State
@ Portland
vs Sacramento
vs Milwaukee

Clippers (48-23)
20 games remaining: 5 Home / 6 Road
Home: 28-8 / Road: 20-15
@ New Orleans
@ San Antonio
@ Houston
vs Indiana
vs Phoenix
vs LA Lakers
vs Minnesota
@ New Orleans
@ Memphis
vs Portland
@ Sacramento

[mttwlsn16]

2 seed is certainly doable. we are 2nd if we win tomorrow vs okc. and w parker down, 1 isnt impossible, but with that system im sure de colo will fill in for TP and avg 20/10 for the rest of the season. and parker will come back at full strength just in time to get ready for playoffs.

will be a fun final month and a half tho for sure.

[Neddy]

i don't think tony parker is that easily replaceable, even with pop's system. i can see them barely stay above .500 the rest of the way. the top spot will be a dog fight between us and the thunder. looking at the schedule, it is ours to lose.

[mkwest]

The Spurs have been a .500 team (7-7) over the past 3 years without Parker. I think they'll do better than that, but how much better remains to be seen. Pop is not going to run his guys into the ground trying to squeak out a few more wins. In April, his key guys are going to be playing reduced minutes or sitting out some games completely.

Some people have been saying that the Spurs may want to avoid a potential 1st round series with the Lakers, but I don't really think that makes a ton of sense. If the higher seeds win as expected, it's better to face the Grizzlies or Nuggets in the 2nd round than it would be to face the Thunder or Clippers. Due to 2nd round match-ups, that number 1 spot is highly coveted. None of the match-ups are cakewalks, but if you can avoid playing a top 3-4 team until the WCF, then that's what you aim to do.

Looking at the schedules, I think ours is pretty favorable. Provided everyone stays healthy and we don't have too many of those lackluster games, we can finish out the season fairly strong. I think 1st place is in reach, but I feel that the Clippers need to set their sights on getting the 2nd seed and taking things from there.

[og15]

I think part of that 7-7 is that some of those games without Parker were also games without Manu and Duncan

Not only is it better to not get the higher second round seed, avoiding the Lakers means no HCA vs the #1 seed in the WCF if they make it there. That would be really stupid for them to do.

Considering how OKC has played lately, and considering that the current record takes injuries into account, while they have been healthy. The Clippers should be able to slightly outpace their home and road records and win 59-61 games if health remains. OKC on the under hand might end up with about 57-58 wins if they aren't careful.

[og15]

i don't think tony parker is that easily replaceable, even with pop's system. i can see them barely stay above .500 the rest of the way. the top spot will be a dog fight between us and the thunder. looking at the schedule, it is ours to lose.

Too many home games, and a team coached by Pop, I don't think over .500 will be too hard. They need 4 games over .500 to win 60 games, while the Clippers and Thunder need to outpace their current winning to get to 60. They need to win 13 for 60, and have 15 home games.

They only have one easy road game though, Minnesota. Their other road games are: Houston, Memphis, OKC, Denver, LA Lakers and Golden State. So they will need to go all out at home.

At home the have these toughies: OKC, Denver, LAC, Miami and Memphis. These tough, but not at the same level ones: Chicago, Golden State and Atlanta. Could be tough for them. #1 is possible

[QRich3]

I'd be more than happy if we could get #2, I only wanna see the Spurs as late as possible. We match up better with OKC and they're a younger team that can have a mental breakdown any moment (just like us tbh). The Spurs, you can only beat them if you're clearly a better team than they are, you cant expect them to have a bad day cause they just wont.

That said, we have it difficult to move up right now. Denver on a back to back is nearly an automatic loss, we then have games in San Antonio, Memphis and Houston that are gonna be very difficult, It's gonna be hard to win two of them. Then we have a few hard games at home (MEM, NY, Lakers) that I can see us losing, plus whatever brainfart against a bad team we'll have.

OKC have a few difficult road games too but With the way we've benn playing And our schedule, I dont see us catching them. The Spurs are a near lock to be the 1st seed now.

[og15]

The Clippers need 6-3 on the road to maintain pace. Here are the road games:

@ Denver
@ Sacramento
@ Dallas
@ New Orleans
@ San Antonio
@ Houston
@ New Orleans
@ Memphis
@ Sacramento

I see at least these 3/4 of these as losses, @Denver, @Houston, @San Antonio, and @Memphis. I think all the rest are quite winnable, Dallas isn't super impressive lately, but you never know. At worst I think 5-4, but 6-3 is doable.

Home games (11 remaining now):
vs Milwaukee
vs Detroit
vs Memphis
vs New York
vs Philadelphia
vs Brooklyn
vs Indiana
vs Phoenix
vs LA Lakers
vs Minnesota
vs Portland

9-2 at home is quite possible, but 9-2 at home and 6-3 on the road means 58 wins, which probably won't be enough for 2nd. I'll pick New York and Indiana as the home losses, I don't see the team loosing both games to Memphis, home should be a win. The other teams aren't too bad. Best case is obviously to sweep home, or 10-1.

[thanumba2clippersfan]

We would need a fabulous finish to be #1 in the west. I'm honestly not worried about it, as long as your team is near the top you are fine. In the playoffs the best team wins. If we are truly the best team we will beat the Spurs and/or Thunder and will get to the finals.

[og15]

We would need a fabulous finish to be #1 in the west. I'm honestly not worried about it, as long as your team is near the top you are fine. In the playoffs the best team wins. If we are truly the best team we will beat the Spurs and/or Thunder and will get to the finals.

Doesn't hurt to have HCA though . I'd assume that with two fairly evenly matched teams, the one with HCA will have the higher chance of winning, maybe 55-45?

[azncorruptedo17]

i accepted the fact that we won't finish 1... trying to figure out who i'd rather have in the semis... SAS or OKC? #toughone

[og15]

i accepted the fact that we won't finish 1... trying to figure out who i'd rather have in the semis... SAS or OKC? #toughone

OKC is probably the better matchup for this team because guarding ball movement and the three point shot is not so good, and SA is much better at that

[mkwest]

1st is just about out of the question. 2nd would have been much more attainable with a win the other day. Right now, the team just needs to make sure that they hold onto 3rd.

[hatreserve]

i say 2 at best

[og15]

OKC is improving their chances at #1. The have Boston next, at home, a very winnable game for them since it is at home. They are currently 46-16, a win vs Boston makes them 47-16.

They then have back to back on the road vs SA. That will be a very big game. If they beat SA, they will be tied at 48-16. SA is a hard one to win in their house, but they just got spanked by Portland, giving up 136 pts and loosing by 30, so not being at full strength, they are certainly more beatable at home.

I would prefer OKC at #2 because if the Clippers stay at 3rd, they get the #2 in the second round, and I prefer the chances against OKC than those against SA.

[commadoor 64]

Sorry about taking that 3rd seed from you guys.

The Grizz just keep beating these crappy teams and winning.

[scoobs07]

Yeah it sucks we should of made some moves. I think we still could pull it off though. It might be pretty damn stressful though! A Clipper parade in L.A. would be awesome. Borderline aploculypuc!

[scoobs07]

Or something like that.

[scoobs07]

Hopefully the Cluppers come through better then my spell check did

[TheNewEra]

the race is tight hoping the Spurs can upset the Thunder without Parker help keep it close. Beat Memphis and we get some breathing room.