The OFFICIAL rookie impressions thread pt.III

[sir G Wallace]

I get a headache reading this thread everytime.

[marsblazer]

Your using the metric in a way to suggest this is production these players would have if they had earned more minutes, thus hypothetical. I see no other reason to bring it up. I like Beal(especially ) and Waiters, I just don't think Lillard earning more minutes should be a negative. I'm not a fan of the grammar police either.

[DCsOwn]

Your using the metric in a way to suggest this is production these players would have if they had earned more minutes, thus hypothetical. I see no other reason to bring it up. I like Beal(especially ) and Waiters, I just don't think Lillard earning more minutes should be a negative. I'm not a fan of the grammar police either.

I wasn't suggesting anything, I was trying to help clear up the confusion surrounding the per 36 statistic. Even still you're confusing what the statistic measures and insunuating an implication I don't think anyone's made. The per 36 stat was only brought up as far as I can tell to normalize the past production of players receiving differing minute totals. The per 36 stat is just a way to remove a floating variable (in this case mpg) when evaluating a group of players. Whether or not a player has earned more or fewer minutes per game is another consideration that needs to be factored into an analysis, but that's a subjective analysis and the per 36 stat deals with the objective.

In any event, I'm on board with the Lillard for ROY argument and have stated as much multiple times throughout the year, I just wanted to help explicate something that seemed to be giving a few people trouble in this thread.

[Jon1798]

Your using the metric in a way to suggest this is production these players would have if they had earned more minutes, thus hypothetical. I see no other reason to bring it up. I like Beal(especially ) and Waiters, I just don't think Lillard earning more minutes should be a negative. I'm not a fan of the grammar police either.

I wasn't suggesting anything, I was trying to help clear up the confusion surrounding the per 36 statistic. Even still you're confusing what the statistic measures and insunuating an implication I don't think anyone's made. The per 36 stat was only brought up as far as I can tell to normalize the past production of players receiving differing minute totals. The per 36 stat is just a way to remove a floating variable (in this case mpg) when evaluating a group of players. Whether or not a player has earned more or fewer minutes per game is another consideration that needs to be factored into an analysis, but that's a subjective analysis and the per 36 stat deals with the objective.

In any event, I'm on board with the Lillard for ROY argument and have stated as much multiple times throughout the year, I just wanted to help explicate something that seemed to be giving a few people trouble in this thread.

Well said as well.

[King d]

It's not a projection of production per start, it's a reflection of production a player gives per 36 minutes of game action. In other words, for every 36 minutes the player has played, he has given you this amount of points or rebounds etc. on average. So it's not a hypothetical, just a different metric to use to evaluate past performance. It's the diametric opposite of a hypothetical actually.

But it's not the same playing 40 min in one game or 3 games of 10, 15 and 15 minutes. So yes, per 36 is hypothetical, there is no doubt about it. Who knows if Drummond playing 40 minutes a night would drop his efficiency , rebound per minute rate and or overall defense because of the heavy increased minutes and stamina?

Not that I believe it, it's just an example

[Jon1798]

It's not a projection of production per start, it's a reflection of production a player gives per 36 minutes of game action. In other words, for every 36 minutes the player has played, he has given you this amount of points or rebounds etc. on average. So it's not a hypothetical, just a different metric to use to evaluate past performance. It's the diametric opposite of a hypothetical actually.

But it's not the same playing 40 min in one game or 3 games of 10, 15 and 15 minutes. So yes, per 36 is hypothetical, there is no doubt about it. Who knows if Drummond playing 40 minutes a night would drop his efficiency , rebound per minute rate and or overall defense because of the heavy increased minutes and stamina?

Not that I believe it, it's just an example

I just can not believe after hundreds of pages of this thread, a stat as simple as per 36 is still being argued. It continues to make this thread nearly impossible to have true basketball discussions. This is a water is wet discussion. I don't know what else can be explained if someone wants to say water is dry.

[King d]

It's not a projection of production per start, it's a reflection of production a player gives per 36 minutes of game action. In other words, for every 36 minutes the player has played, he has given you this amount of points or rebounds etc. on average. So it's not a hypothetical, just a different metric to use to evaluate past performance. It's the diametric opposite of a hypothetical actually.

But it's not the same playing 40 min in one game or 3 games of 10, 15 and 15 minutes. So yes, per 36 is hypothetical, there is no doubt about it. Who knows if Drummond playing 40 minutes a night would drop his efficiency , rebound per minute rate and or overall defense because of the heavy increased minutes and stamina?

Not that I believe it, it's just an example

I just can not believe after hundreds of pages of this thread, a stat as simple as per 36 is still being argued. It continues to make this thread nearly impossible to have true basketball discussions. This is a water is wet discussion. I don't know what else can be explained if someone wants to say water is dry.

And I guess you and DCs are the ones saying that "water is dry" right?

[nate33]

Per 36 is EXACTLY the type of stat that should be used if you are trying to compare who has a greater impact on the game when he is on the floor, particularly when we are talking about guys who average about 36 minutes a game, plus or minus 3 minutes. Certainly, it's better to use per36 to get an apples to apples comparison than it is to just look at raw per minute numbers without considering minutes and concluding that Player A is better than Player B. It's incredible how bent out of shape people get when the per minute numbers make their guy look a little less impressive.

Lillard gets credit in my book for avoiding injury despite such a high workload, but I seriously doubt he would be any more efficient if he played 5 fewer minutes per game.

[dolphinatik]

and now a word on rookies....

[willbcocks]

But Lillard has had a better season...so far...while having more responsibility and facing more pressure

Responsibility and pressure are very vague terms. Does more pressure/responsibility come from more minutes played? From having worse teammates? From having the ball in one's hands more (if this is the case, pgs would always win)? From making more game-winning shots?

Beal is the Wizards leading scorer and leads the team in minutes per game. He has a buzzer-beating game winner and has taken the heat off of Wall's struggles and the other injuries around him. Also, there are no star players on the Wizards. Lillard has his own circumstances, as do Waiters, Davis (being #1 pick adds a lot of both), etc. The only player who's in the ROY conversation who has had significantly less pressure/responsibility is Drummond, but he's putting up the best stats by far.

I think using terms like this makes it difficult for fans of different teams to communicate with each other.

[TheOUTLAW]

He is not putting up the best stats unless you are gross them up by saying that they are per 36. I don't care how you argue it, 7 and 7 are not the best stats in this season of rookies.

[T-Blazin1995]

But Lillard has had a better season...so far...while having more responsibility and facing more pressure

Responsibility and pressure are very vague terms. Does more pressure/responsibility come from more minutes played? From having worse teammates? From having the ball in one's hands more (if this is the case, pgs would always win)? From making more game-winning shots?

Beal is the Wizards leading scorer and leads the team in ppg. He has a buzzer-beating game winner and has taken the heat off of Wall's struggles and the other injuries around him. Lillard has his own circumstances, as do Waiters, Davis (being #1 pick adds a lot of both), etc. The only player who's in the ROY conversation who has had significantly less pressure/responsibility is Drummond, but he's putting up the best stats by far.

I think using terms like this makes it difficult for fans of different teams to communicate with each other.

I will agree with you on Drummond but lillard has had far more pressure than beal if you watch enough games of him you would understand.

And Jon per 36 works for players near 36 minutes but not quite. Not for 1-25 minutes a game because you can nearly anyone you want look spectacular. I hate it when you use it for Davis and make him seem like an all nba player when he isn't.

[marsblazer]

For as athletic as he is I would have thought Meyers Leonard would be a better shot blocker. Hopefully with more minutes he will be able to increase his defensive awareness a bit.

[kidleader]

might as well rename the thread lets discredit all rookies except the one on my team

[Dame Lizard]

Lillard with 24 points (9/18 FG), 6 rebounds, 4 assissts, 0 turnovers in the blazers win over the T-wolves tonight.

For as athletic as he is I would have thought Meyers Leonard would be a better shot blocker. Hopefully with more minutes he will be able to increase his defensive awareness a bit.

Agreed. He isn't really a rim defender just yet. He goes to the perimeter and defends quite a bit, getting him out of position. I'm a bit unsure why he does this, but I'm assuming the coach wants him to???

Another strong game from Leonard tonight, he looks more comfortable out there, that's for sure. However Portland really needs that defensive centre, and Leonard looks to be more of an offensive one, so hopefully he can improve his shot-blocking.

[PaulieWalnuts]

Lillard with 24 points (9/18 FG), 6 rebounds, 4 assissts, 0 turnovers in the blazers win over the T-wolves tonight.

For as athletic as he is I would have thought Meyers Leonard would be a better shot blocker. Hopefully with more minutes he will be able to increase his defensive awareness a bit.

Agreed. He isn't really a rim defender just yet. He goes to the perimeter and defends quite a bit, getting him out of position. I'm a bit unsure why he does this, but I'm assuming the coach wants him to???

Another strong game from Leonard tonight, he looks more comfortable out there, that's for sure. However Portland really needs that defensive centre, and Leonard looks to be more of an offensive one, so hopefully he can improve his shot-blocking.

Leonard's paint defense really needs work. He likes to come out and hassle people around the perimeter and then promptly gets lost on the defensive rotation, which is usually when he commits a dumb foul. There are many times where he looks completely lost and unsure.
The guy is improving however, and Claver is playing much better too since being moved to the 4 spot, much to my surprise.
Freeland is still terrible.

[DusterBuster]

might as well rename the thread lets discredit all rookies except the one on my team

Welcome to RealGM's annual 'rookie watch' thread.

[Wizenheimer]

But Lillard has had a better season...so far...while having more responsibility and facing more pressure

Responsibility and pressure are very vague terms. Does more pressure/responsibility come from more minutes played? From having worse teammates? From having the ball in one's hands more (if this is the case, pgs would always win)? From making more game-winning shots?

why are you asking those question after taking a single sentence out of a much longer post.

I explicitly explained what I meant by responsibility and pressure, but of course, my explanation wouldn't set the table for your set of questions if you didn't eliminate all the context I had in my post. My terms were not "vague" because I explained what I meant by them. Your edit is what created the vagueness.

Beal is the Wizards leading scorer and leads the team in minutes per game. He has a buzzer-beating game winner and has taken the heat off of Wall's struggles and the other injuries around him. Also, there are no star players on the Wizards. Lillard has his own circumstances, as do Waiters, Davis (being #1 pick adds a lot of both), etc. The only player who's in the ROY conversation who has had significantly less pressure/responsibility is Drummond, but he's putting up the best stats by far.

Lillard plays point guard. Beal does not. I'm sorry if that is inconvenient for your argument. He has had a consistent responsibility for initiating his team's offense. Most of the time he's done a pretty good job for a rookie. Sometimes he hasn't. Rookie blues.

Lillard is averaging 6.5 assists, Beal is averaging 2.5. Part of that responsibility thing.
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Lillard has a FG% of .419 and a TS% of .534. Beal has a FG% of .407 and a TS% of .512. Those numbers could simply stand alone, or some more context could be added....

Context like the fact that 75% of Beal's baskets are assisted while only 32% of Lillard's baskets are assisted. We know that almost all players are going to post higher efficiency on a lot of the types of shots that are assisted. Like Spot-up and transition opportunities

not only does Lillard have to shoulder the primary responsibility of running his team's offense, he has to create his own offense as well. The life of a PG

but he actually does quite well at that. Lillard averages 0.99 points/possession in isolation plays (Beal 0.69). That ranks 10th in the NBA, which is excellent for a rookie. On the other hand, Lillard averages 0.86 points/possession on P&R plays (Beal 0.59) which only ranks 28th in the league. So, you'd think the Blazers would call more plays to Lillard's strength which is isolation, rather then P&R. But in fact, only 15% of Lillard's possessions are isolation while 44% are P&R. he invests 3 times as many possessions on the play he is less efficient at...

that's because he has that responsibility of running the offense. Beal does not have that level of responsibility. I hope that isn't too vague for you

as a matter of fact, I distinctly remember Washington fans pointing out that Beal's efficiency jumped once Wall returned to the lineup and started creating more opportunities for players like Beal. Lillard is doing for the Blazers what Wall is doing for the Wizards (and Beal), and he's averaging over 18 points a game while doing it

and before this goes further, I want to re-state what I said earlier: I have been impressed with Beal. I think he's going to be a good player. Considering league-wide the relative weakness of the SG position and relative strength of the PG position, Beal might end up higher rated as a SG then Lillard is as a PG

[Dame Lizard]

Considering league-wide the relative weakness of the SG position and relative strength of the PG position, Beal might end up higher rated as a SG then Lillard is as a PG

To me, I think it's almost guaranteed that Beal will be a higher ranked SG than Lillard as a ranked PG. PG is the best position in the NBA by far, SG potentially the worst.

Both are very good players, and will most likely be future All-Stars.

[sir G Wallace]

But Lillard has had a better season...so far...while having more responsibility and facing more pressure

Responsibility and pressure are very vague terms. Does more pressure/responsibility come from more minutes played? From having worse teammates? From having the ball in one's hands more (if this is the case, pgs would always win)? From making more game-winning shots?

why are you asking those question after taking a single sentence out of a much longer post.

I explicitly explained what I meant by responsibility and pressure, but of course, my explanation wouldn't set the table for your set of questions if you didn't eliminate all the context I had in my post. My terms were not "vague" because I explained what I meant by them. Your edit is what created the vagueness.

Beal is the Wizards leading scorer and leads the team in minutes per game. He has a buzzer-beating game winner and has taken the heat off of Wall's struggles and the other injuries around him. Also, there are no star players on the Wizards. Lillard has his own circumstances, as do Waiters, Davis (being #1 pick adds a lot of both), etc. The only player who's in the ROY conversation who has had significantly less pressure/responsibility is Drummond, but he's putting up the best stats by far.

Lillard plays point guard. Beal does not. I'm sorry if that is inconvenient for your argument. He has had a consistent responsibility for initiating his team's offense. Most of the time he's done a pretty good job for a rookie. Sometimes he hasn't. Rookie blues.

Lillard is averaging 6.5 assists, Beal is averaging 2.5. Part of that responsibility thing.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Lillard has a FG% of .419 and a TS% of .534. Beal has a FG% of .407 and a TS% of .512. Those numbers could simply stand alone, or some more context could be added....

Context like the fact that 75% of Beal's baskets are assisted while only 32% of Lillard's baskets are assisted. We know that almost all players are going to post higher efficiency on a lot of the types of shots that are assisted. Like Spot-up and transition opportunities

not only does Lillard have to shoulder the primary responsibility of running his team's offense, he has to create his own offense as well. The life of a PG

but he actually does quite well at that. Lillard averages 0.99 points/possession in isolation plays (Beal 0.69). That ranks 10th in the NBA, which is excellent for a rookie. On the other hand, Lillard averages 0.86 points/possession on P&R plays (Beal 0.59) which only ranks 28th in the league. So, you'd think the Blazers would call more plays to Lillard's strength which is isolation, rather then P&R. But in fact, only 15% of Lillard's possessions are isolation while 44% are P&R. he invests 3 times as many possessions on the play he is less efficient at...

that's because he has that responsibility of running the offense. Beal does not have that level of responsibility. I hope that isn't too vague for you

as a matter of fact, I distinctly remember Washington fans pointing out that Beal's efficiency jumped once Wall returned to the lineup and started creating more opportunities for players like Beal. Lillard is doing for the Blazers what Wall is doing for the Wizards (and Beal), and he's averaging over 18 points a game while doing it

and before this goes further, I want to re-state what I said earlier: I have been impressed with Beal. I think he's going to be a good player. Considering league-wide the relative weakness of the SG position and relative strength of the PG position, Beal might end up higher rated as a SG then Lillard is as a PG

Your post might make too much sense for some people.