Bradley Beal

[hands11]

I remember someone criticizing Beal's facial expressions. Weren't you the one arguing with them?

Yeah, Hands was getting hung up over Beal's innocuous facial expressions.

Now that i know his mom played competitively and is constantly giving him advice i understand. Watching him play you would never know he was 19. Either he is a fast learner or he had a good teacher, or both.

Yup, Beal's mom played bball in college and his dad was a college football player. Nice combination of genes.

I was doing what ?

Now this is getting to funny. I was steadily promoting Beal while other were talking about MKG and Davis and now I'm the one that was criticizing him

I think you are confused. I commented on MKG.

As for who posted about him first, sorry. I don't start posting in the draft thread the day after the NBA season starts like some.

[DCZards]

Hands, this is from a Dec. 30 post by you in this thread:

He may end up being a good guard and he may even develop a shot one day, but it isn't today and its not likely to be next year either. How often does a broken shot get fixed in a year? I mean Jason Kidd didn't used to hit the 3 ball but now he does. How many years did that take.

Right now my biggest problem with Beal is he seems like the kind of kid that is to in his head and playing with no fire or swag. He is thinking to much. You even see it when he scores. He gets all smiley. I complained about this same things with Nick Young. Beal is always talking about how he wants to have fun out there. Meanwhile, other pros are out there with knives in their eyes. They want to school you. They play with an edge. They want to step on your throat. Its a war out there. You can smile when the game is over. While the game is on, I want a game face and a warrior attitude.

[DaRealHibachi]

Hands, this is from a Dec. 30 post by you in this thread:

He may end up being a good guard and he may even develop a shot one day, but it isn't today and its not likely to be next year either. How often does a broken shot get fixed in a year? I mean Jason Kidd didn't used to hit the 3 ball but now he does. How many years did that take.

Right now my biggest problem with Beal is he seems like the kind of kid that is to in his head and playing with no fire or swag. He is thinking to much. You even see it when he scores. He gets all smiley. I complained about this same things with Nick Young. Beal is always talking about how he wants to have fun out there. Meanwhile, other pros are out there with knives in their eyes. They want to school you. They play with an edge. They want to step on your throat. Its a war out there. You can smile when the game is over. While the game is on, I want a game face and a warrior attitude.

O wow..

[tontoz]

He may end up being a good guard and he may even develop a shot one day, but it isn't today and its not likely to be next year either. How often does a broken shot get fixed in a year?

[rockymac52]

So, I don't know how anyone could resist falling in love with Beal right now the way he's been playing recently. Here's a few interesting stats I just looked up:

Since John Wall returned, Beal has averaged 16 PPG and has shot .461 (!) from 3.

Post All-Star (only 6 games, so obviously take it for what it's worth):

Beal is averaging 38 MPG (considerably higher than the 32 MPG he's been getting most of the year after getting 28 MPG his first month in the league) - also figure this has something to do with the fact that Crawford's gone and there's more minutes to go around (and not really many other capable guards ready to take them away), which means Beal might continue to play at this rate.

In those 38 MPG, Beal is averaging 21.3 PPG (.489 FG% and .433 3P%) and 7.3 RPG (this is obviously skewed a lot by his 11 rebound game and he's probably still the 4 RPG player that he's been all year). .433 3P% is about 10th best in the league on the season, just for reference's sake, should he be able to continue shooting at that clip going forward. Likewise, if he had been shooting as well from 3 and as often from 3 (2.2 made 3's per game Post All-Star) as he's been Post All-Star, all season, he'd have 125 made 3's, which again, is about 10th best in the league. Ray Allen didn't make 2.2 3's per game until his 5th season in the league, when he was 25 years old. 21.3 PPG would also currently be 10th best in the league.

Obviously Post All-Star is an incredibly small sample size at this point, and I don't know why I wasted as much time as I did already looking at Beal's stats in that time frame, but still, it's interesting, and encouraging! If he somehow managed to keep up his stats that he's had Post All-Star for an entire season, we'd have a top 10 offensive player on our hands, without a doubt.

Oh, one more, I guess - Beal's shot .461 from 3 since Wall came back, and if he keeps up that pace, he'd be a very close 2nd to Kyle Korver in the league's best 3 point shooters. Damn.

It's crazy that he's started slow and come on in the second half of the season twice now - this year and last year in college as a freshman. I've always thought the justification of him getting acclimated and figuring it out later in the season was mostly bull and wishful thinking, but hey, if he keeps it up this year, who knows?

He's definitely the Real Deal Beal.

[rockymac52]

Just checked out Beal's synergy profile real quick. It's a shame they don't have some kind of split stats as far as I can tell, because I'd love to see how he's progressed as the season's gone on, but oh well.

One thing that I did find interesting is how bad Beal has been driving both left and right when he pulls up for the jumper.

It's a small sample size again, but take it for what it's worth.

When Beal drives right and pulls up for the jumper, he scores .54 PPP (12th percentile).
When Beal drives left and pulls up for the jumper, he scores .25 PPP (1st percentile).

Let's just say it's not his strong suit

[nate33]

Just checked out Beal's synergy profile real quick. It's a shame they don't have some kind of split stats as far as I can tell, because I'd love to see how he's progressed as the season's gone on, but oh well.

One thing that I did find interesting is how bad Beal has been driving both left and right when he pulls up for the jumper.

It's a small sample size again, but take it for what it's worth.

When Beal drives right and pulls up for the jumper, he scores .54 PPP (12th percentile).
When Beal drives left and pulls up for the jumper, he scores .25 PPP (1st percentile).

Let's just say it's not his strong suit

Yeah, the lack of splits makes almost any analysis pointless. The 2012 Beal is an entirely different player than the 2013 Beal. That 2012 guy was just an awful shooter - arguably the worst 3-point shooter in NBA history, and that is not an exaggeration. The 2013 Beal is literally the best 3-point shooter in NBA history. He is averaging .485 of 4.3 attempts per game. No one has ever shot above .480 while attempting at least 4.0 3's per game.

[pancakes3]

- So the optimist test would beg the question, how do we feel about the night/day change?

- Also, as for the synergy stats, I think that left-right stat is significant. On the year, 2 months in 2012, 2 months in 2013 - it's a full college season's worth of stats we're working with. Whatever light bulb turned on won't explain the 100% increase in ppp from left to right. Even if sample size of shots taken shows that Beal is 1/4 from the left and 27/50 from the right, the discrepancy between the shot attempts is still telling.

[rockymac52]

- So the optimist test would beg the question, how do we feel about the night/day change?

- Also, as for the synergy stats, I think that left-right stat is significant. On the year, 2 months in 2012, 2 months in 2013 - it's a full college season's worth of stats we're working with. Whatever light bulb turned on won't explain the 100% increase in ppp from left to right. Even if sample size of shots taken shows that Beal is 1/4 from the left and 27/50 from the right, the discrepancy between the shot attempts is still telling.

You might have misunderstood what I was saying about synergy stats on Beal. So far this season, Beal has taken a "spot up" shot after driving right 16 times and has done the same after driving left 22 times. No real significant difference in the frequency one way or another there.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I wonder if Wall feels pressure and/or resentment at all watching Beal emerge before his eyes, and taking his place more and more as face of the franchise. I mean, every promo for the Wizards I see now features Beal front and center, not Wall.

Especially all the negative comments he's been getting about his game, and his bad play of late. Meanwhile Beal has stepped up and playing lights out.

[payitforward]

Hands, this is from a Dec. 30 post by you in this thread:

He may end up being a good guard and he may even develop a shot one day, but it isn't today and its not likely to be next year either. How often does a broken shot get fixed in a year? I mean Jason Kidd didn't used to hit the 3 ball but now he does. How many years did that take.

Right now my biggest problem with Beal is he seems like the kind of kid that is to in his head and playing with no fire or swag. He is thinking to much. You even see it when he scores. He gets all smiley. I complained about this same things with Nick Young. Beal is always talking about how he wants to have fun out there. Meanwhile, other pros are out there with knives in their eyes. They want to school you. They play with an edge. They want to step on your throat. Its a war out there. You can smile when the game is over. While the game is on, I want a game face and a warrior attitude.

Hands is wrong occasionally. He's also right occasionally.

Personally, I had Beal pegged before he got out of diapers. I had him pegged when we were still the Bullets.

(Actually, I did call for us to pick him right from the beginning, though I would have been happy w/ MK-G had BB gone #2. And MK-G is turning out to be a terrific player too.)

[pancakes3]

- So the optimist test would beg the question, how do we feel about the night/day change?

- Also, as for the synergy stats, I think that left-right stat is significant. On the year, 2 months in 2012, 2 months in 2013 - it's a full college season's worth of stats we're working with. Whatever light bulb turned on won't explain the 100% increase in ppp from left to right. Even if sample size of shots taken shows that Beal is 1/4 from the left and 27/50 from the right, the discrepancy between the shot attempts is still telling.

You might have misunderstood what I was saying about synergy stats on Beal. So far this season, Beal has taken a "spot up" shot after driving right 16 times and has done the same after driving left 22 times. No real significant difference in the frequency one way or another there.

It was more in response to Nate's post than yours. Nate said that we shouldn't read too much into the synergy stats because it lacked splits of pre/post Jan.1 where the difference in Beal's play is night and day. I was just saying that the data is still significant imo. Even though there is a distinct difference between 2012 and 2013, the cumulative data has enough games to simulate a full college season and the disparity between left and right can be used to draw a conclusion. It'd be more useful with splits but not entirely worthless.

Also, I didn't see any attempts figures in your original statement. I was just musing on one extreme condition that would have produced such drastic differences in PPP and the conclusions we might draw from that. 4/16 from the left and... 12/22 from the right to me is enough proof that Beal is statistically significantly better from a right pull up than a left for whatever reason. Probably shooting mechanics*.

*he likes to center the ball at his belly before rising up like a good jumpshooter does rather than just elevate straight up from the hip like a lot of "off-the-dribble" guys do.

[hands11]

Hands, this is from a Dec. 30 post by you in this thread:

He may end up being a good guard and he may even develop a shot one day, but it isn't today and its not likely to be next year either. How often does a broken shot get fixed in a year? I mean Jason Kidd didn't used to hit the 3 ball but now he does. How many years did that take.

Right now my biggest problem with Beal is he seems like the kind of kid that is to in his head and playing with no fire or swag. He is thinking to much. You even see it when he scores. He gets all smiley. I complained about this same things with Nick Young. Beal is always talking about how he wants to have fun out there. Meanwhile, other pros are out there with knives in their eyes. They want to school you. They play with an edge. They want to step on your throat. Its a war out there. You can smile when the game is over. While the game is on, I want a game face and a warrior attitude.

We were talking about leading up to the draft. I thought your post was about predraft which would have fit with my comments about MKG not Beal.

Predraft I was a huge Beal supporter.
Preseason. I said he would be ROTY
Player Comparison: Ray Allen/D Wade

The post you dug up was Dec 30 during the season about his mental approach to the game at the time. His swag and mental toughness. I won't walk away from what I posted there. It was true. Good news is, it was only a few days after that post I said I saw that changing.

From the same post I also said..

"For right now, it looks like one of the things that I liked most about Beal pre draft is actually holding him back. He is just to nice a kid. Compare his attitude to Dion Waiters. Waiters has much more of an edge to him."

I then also referenced how D Howard has a problem with that.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1190581&start=780

On the same day, I also posted this.

Yes, He's a smart player, a hard worker, he tries to operate within the offense, he plays defense, he moves the ball, and he rebounds. And he is a really nice kid. None of that was the focus on my post.

I posted about how it even players like LeBron took some time to get the mental part of the game.

I posted just two day later that the looked like the light bulb was going on regarding him mental toughness and how it was a good thing he ready my posts.


And just 6 days later I started the "Kool-Aid season turnaround thread"


Dec 30th, I the midst of team going 4-24. Nate was positing about how Beal was the worst 3 pt shooting ever. So my commented about his broken shot was during that period. And I wasn't the only one commenting on it. Remember posts like, didn't we draft this guy for his spot up 3 ball. Whats going on?

But then just a game or two later, I commented that his release looked quicker.

No doubt Beal 3 point shooting turnaround in season is amazing. I wouldn't be surprised if it is record breaking. "How often does a broken shot get fixed in a year like that?" Not very often. If ever. Beals turn around have been amazing.

Beal was struggling with his outside shot for sure. Even wide open ones. But it wasn't all on him. He was put in a no win situation. Throw to the wolves. No PG. No PF. He shouldn't have started to start the year. Things would have been easier for him playing 20-25 minutes off the bench. Even you agreed with that.

It also would have help raise Crawfords value.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1190581&start=735

So lets not confuse the facts. I have always been a huge Beal fan.

[hands11]

I wonder if Wall feels pressure and/or resentment at all watching Beal emerge before his eyes, and taking his place more and more as face of the franchise. I mean, every promo for the Wizards I see now features Beal front and center, not Wall.

Especially all the negative comments he's been getting about his game, and his bad play of late. Meanwhile Beal has stepped up and playing lights out.

We have been posting about this recently. Maybe you missed it.

Wall is just a person. He has an ego and feelings just like everyone else. Of course he feels it. I would assume his natural reaction would be to try to step it up and do more. Try to be more significant. Problem is, when he does that, he is less efficient. He played well last game until later in the 4th when he tried to do to much.

Beal is going to be as good as he is going to be. Wall should just be happy he has another young talent on the floor with him. Wall needs to focus on his own game and being more efficient. Its not going to look like Bradly's game. If Wall was posting 10 assist games, playing solid lock down D and just posting 10 pts a game, he would get his share of the spotlight. Multiple 10 and 10 game from Wall is the way to go if he wants positive attention.

[TGW]

Hands, this is from a Dec. 30 post by you in this thread:

He may end up being a good guard and he may even develop a shot one day, but it isn't today and its not likely to be next year either. How often does a broken shot get fixed in a year? I mean Jason Kidd didn't used to hit the 3 ball but now he does. How many years did that take.

Right now my biggest problem with Beal is he seems like the kind of kid that is to in his head and playing with no fire or swag. He is thinking to much. You even see it when he scores. He gets all smiley. I complained about this same things with Nick Young. Beal is always talking about how he wants to have fun out there. Meanwhile, other pros are out there with knives in their eyes. They want to school you. They play with an edge. They want to step on your throat. Its a war out there. You can smile when the game is over. While the game is on, I want a game face and a warrior attitude.

whoops.

[tontoz]

You even see it when he scores. He gets all smiley.

Yeah, I am sure that is the reason Beal was struggling in December. Once he started making the stinkface after scores his game took off.

[pancakes3]

As for who posted about him first, sorry. I don't start posting in the draft thread the day after the NBA season starts like some.

What are you apologizing for?

[DCZards]

Sorry, Hands, I can't agree with you when you say Beal showed a lack of mental toughness earlier in the season. Even when his shot wasn't falling, Double B never lost his swag or confidence, imo.

Unlike you, I didn't lose faith in the kid when he was struggling or suggest that his shot was broken.

[hands11]

Sorry, Hands, I can't agree with you when you say Beal showed a lack of mental toughness earlier in the season. Even when his shot wasn't falling, Double B never lost his swag or confidence, imo.

Unlike you, I didn't lose faith in the kid when he was struggling or suggest that his shot was broken.

I know you didn't agree with my on court mental approach comments. You didn't agree then either. That's ok. We don't need to see eye to eye on everything. Most things we do. Its not often I read one of your posts and find it outside my view on a topic.

To be clear, I was talking mental toughness on the court. He was always mentally tough as a person in general. But to my point, Beal himself would comment on this aspect of his game on the court. He would say he would lose focus.

But as I posted, I saw this improving just a few days after I posted that.

It was just one post DCz. From the tone of the post, it was probably after a rough game and I was venting. Let me check.. Yeep.

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400278161

He was in the middle of an 0-17 runs from 3 range. Shooting .184 for Dec on 4 attempts per game.

Saying I lost faith in Beal I think is a bit of an over statement. I always said it would it come eventually. I posted plenty of positive stuff about him. I have been a huge Beal fan.

Did I see him flipping the switch on that 3 ball like he did. Nope. Which by the way happened the very next game on 1/1/13 That is when I commented his release was getting faster and that he looked more focused on the court.

[The Consiglieri]

Just checked out Beal's synergy profile real quick. It's a shame they don't have some kind of split stats as far as I can tell, because I'd love to see how he's progressed as the season's gone on, but oh well.

One thing that I did find interesting is how bad Beal has been driving both left and right when he pulls up for the jumper.

It's a small sample size again, but take it for what it's worth.

When Beal drives right and pulls up for the jumper, he scores .54 PPP (12th percentile).
When Beal drives left and pulls up for the jumper, he scores .25 PPP (1st percentile).

Let's just say it's not his strong suit

Yeah, the lack of splits makes almost any analysis pointless. The 2012 Beal is an entirely different player than the 2013 Beal. That 2012 guy was just an awful shooter - arguably the worst 3-point shooter in NBA history, and that is not an exaggeration. The 2013 Beal is literally the best 3-point shooter in NBA history. He is averaging .485 of 4.3 attempts per game. No one has ever shot above .480 while attempting at least 4.0 3's per game.

I know what you're getting at, and I wouldn't disagree with the numbers, they are what they are, but to me, they were utterly meaningless, and remain so. The team was injury riddled, the point guards were abject jokes, the best two players were out, and he was playing his first NBA games ever after a short time in college (1 year, in which he was equally poor to start from November-January). Hence my post about being absolutely fine with him and not worried at all unless he was looking just as bad as of the spring of '14.

The truth about his shooing in my view as pretty simple, small sample size, and a horrendous collection of potential negatives to contribute to it.

Not surprisingly, given some time to get at ease, and get the best players back in Nene and then Wall, he started shooting the lights out. For the record I dont think he's as insanely good as he has been lately just as I didnt buy what he looked like early, I think at bare minimum we'll have an above average to good guard and possibly a very good on, with a shot at a great one.