Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[pancakes3]

There's no telling what the bobcats do. On one hand, they've got MJ and on the other they've got Rich Cho. MJ would want to make a play on Shabaaz but I'm sure Cho's numbers would want Noel.

[popper]

Smart will go early b/c he's a point guard with an NBA body and a really good leader. He may have question marks, but b/c he's young, PG needy teams like Orlando will take him (although I think Orlando takes Noel 1st no questions asked).

Noel is going #1 IMO. The Bobcats would take him #1 b/c, again, game changing bigs are too hard to find. So what if they have Biyambo? Noel is the superior prospect. The Cavs would certainly take Noel as well. Orlando would love to pair Noel with the floor-bound Vucavic. The only that would not would be Detroit b/c they already have Drummond and Monroe. I also think the Kings would take Smart for his leadership qualities.

IMO, here would be the picks and preferences of the teams (in order of preferences):

Bobcats: (Noel, Mclemore, Shabaaz)
Kings: (Smart, Noel, Porter)
Pistons: (Smart, Mclemore, Porter, Shabaaz)
Magic: (Noel, Smart, Mclemore, Porter)
Raps: (Noel, Smart, Zeller)
Cavs: (Noel, Porter, Olapido, Zeller)

If you are right then it looks like we have a decent chance to select Porter assuming Nene continues his rehab on the bench and Wall continues to shoot a low percentage and turn the ball over at a high rate (especially in the fourth quarters).

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah, that star mentality is a great thing in many ways - He's got cojones grandes when it comes to taking big shots. He demands as much as commands the ball. But I think he's going to have to tone it down some until he actually becomes a star. Otherwise, he may end up isolating himself from his teammates.

One scorer I've overlooked until now that I think might go in the lottery is Georgia sophomore Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (an all-star name anyway). He's listed as a 6'6 205 guard, but his rebounding suggests maybe he can play some small forward - he's averaged 9 boards a game the last 6 games. He's a gunner, but his shooting and scoring numbers have improved dramatically since his freshman year to the point where he has become reasonably efficient - his shooting percentages are solid, and he gets to the line twice as much as he did as a frosh. And he also averages 2.1 steals a game - showing along with his rebounding that he's not just a gunner. If he was 2 inches taller, he'd be nice fit for the Wiz, but if the Wiz do pick up a late lotto, he could push people (like Burke or McCollum) down - if he declares for the 2013 draft.

I see what you mean. He calls for the ball almost every possession. He would shoot it 30 times a game if he could. He does work hard to get open, but you can see it annoys his teammates and they will ignore him and work the ball to someone else for a much worse shot.

He's not a stabilizing element or glue guy. He seems like a nice kid off the court and says all of the right things. Comports himself like a seasoned pro. But you need a well established chemistry in place with him I think. A PG he will respect who will keep the offense flowing smoothly and intelligently. UCLA lacks both of those. UCLA was young and had identity issues and really they under achieved a bit even though they went 22-7 and are tied for first in their conference. I think his notoriety was a negative factor because you had teammates trying to prove they belonged and deserved their high recruiting rankings too instead of playing cohesive team basketball. And I don't think Ben Howland is a very good leader or coach.

Anyone else think his comments about Shabazz going pro post game were strange and put some negative pressure on Shabazz? I wouldn't be surprised if that's the kind of thing that makes recruiting a little tougher for him down the line. I'm not sure Shabazz himself has completely decided what he'll do. Even if he's leaning heavily towards leaving early, there is no way he's gotten word back from the league he's going to be a sure fire top five pick yet. I bet that kind of stuff comes much later in the process. So Shabazz probably doesn't have all of the info he needs to make his decision. Now you've made a bit of a media circus out of his decision. And it almost looks like you're blaming him if he goes early.

[rockymac52]

I've been doing a lot of college scouting recently, and here's some of my thoughts as far as the lottery pick goes.

First of all, I want nothing to do with Michael Carter-Williams or Marcus Smart. Smart seems to be shooting up the draft boards recently, but I just don't understand what all the hype's about. He's massive for a PG, and he's a lock-down defender. But his offense is very average, even at the college level. That doesn't bode well for his transition to the pros. I hate to make this comparison, because they happen to come from the same college, but he seems like Tony Allen to me. Yeah, Smart will likely try his hand at being a full time PG in the NBA, but I just don't see it really working out long-term. But he seems like a hard-nosed guy that loves to play defense. I know I said I didn't want anything to do with him at the beginning, and all of a sudden I'm saying all these great things about him, but I just think he's become wayyy over-hyped, and I would be furious if we used a top 5 or so pick on him. If we end up in the 10-14 pick range, then we can start considering him if he somehow lasts that long, but even then, I just don't see him being that special, and I don't think he fits on this team at the moment. Most NBA teams would love to have a Tony Allen, but it's not exactly what you hope for when you're a lottery team with a top 10 pick. Oh, and Michael Carter-Williams just isn't good at all - no thanks.


My biggest question(s) about this draft involve Ben McLemore, and Victor Oladipo. The question that I have with these guys is simply whether or not they can play SF in the NBA. Another pertinent question to ask here is if we'd be interested in drafting a PG or SG knowing that they'd be the 3rd guard after Wall and Beal (unless they prove to be the better player a few years down the line). Let's say Wall and Beal both average 36 MPG next year, that would only leave 24 minutes for the guard spots (unless we want to go real small for some stretches).

Personally I think it's clear that we have 2 guards right now, Wall and Beal, and no one else, so we definitely could use a 3rd guard (whether a combo guard or not) who takes on a decent amount of minutes. I also think it's time to light a fire under Wall and make him earn the starting job (and near max contract that he's in line for very soon, sadly). If all 3 players end up being good, and there's not enough minutes to go around, then we can trade one of them for front court depth. Too much talent is a good problem to have.

Ideally, however, these guys could play SF at least part-time, if not full-time. Thoughts on whether this is possible for them/us?

Oladipo's been phenomenal this year, although I have to admit I'm still a little skeptical just because of the fact that he seemingly came out of nowhere as a junior, but I'll try not to hold that against him. I also think he's become incredibly overrated as a lock-down defender, when the stats suggest he's actually one of the Hoosiers' worst defenders. With that said, I like his overall skill set, and he seems like the right type of attitude you want around your team, and I think he could fit in well here.

McLemore is a stud. And for those of you who don't know me, it takes a LOT for me to say something positive about anyone who went to kU. But this kid can ball. I honestly think he might be the best player in the draft right now. Only problem is that he's only 6'5", and seems like a perfect fit at SG, but obviously we have Beal, so that could be a problem. That's why I'm hoping he could slide over to SF for long stretches of the game, but I feel like that's not very realistic. Either way, I'd love to find a way to make it work, because I honestly think McLemore is a future star in this league, and I'd LOVE to have a McLemore/Beal wing combo for the next 10+ years (fun fact: they played on the same AAU team in high school).

If McLemore isn't the best player in the draft right now, then I think I'd go with Otto Porter. Porter does everything well, on both sides of the floor, and if you've ever heard this kid interview, you can tell he has the passion and dedication needed to succeed as an individual and as a team. The Georgetown/DC connection would be a fun bonus too. And he fits perfectly with what we need, and is a legitimate NBA SF. I'd be very happy if we ended up with Porter in this draft.

Another player that I'm pretty high on is Anthony Bennett. I think Bennett might be the good stretch 4 that we've been waiting for. Not only can he shoot the 3 ball decently well, but he can score in so many different ways. He has legitimate perimeter skills, as well as elite post skills. He's good on both sides of the floor too. Some are concerned that he wont' be able to defend PFs at the NBA level, but I think he'll hold his own. He's got a pretty thick frame, IIRC. Bennett might be a big sleeper at the moment.

As far as Shabazz, I like his skill set, I love the potential (you can see him becoming a star at the next level, theoretically, when you watch him play), and I love that he can probably play SF at the NBA level. HOWEVER, the kid continues to demonstrate that he's a me-first player who is selfish and doesn't care about his team's success unless he's the one making all the shots. He seems really immature, and I think he could clash with lots of NBA players, especially if he isn't his team's main or secondary scoring option from the get-go. That's a lot of red flags, IMO. I don't really want anything to do with them, either. If we end up with like the 7th or 8th pick and he's still around, I'd probably be okay with drafting him there, but I'd be wary from day one about his attitude.

CJ McCollum is really underrated and overlooked, partly because of the conference he plays in, and partly because of his season-ending injury a couple months ago. But I really love this kid, he's incredibly efficient and can take on huge scoring loads. I'm curious as to why a lot of draft scouting websites have him listed as a SG, because he's obviously very small for a SG, and seems to fit as a PG better, IMO. Maybe he's the combo guard off the bench we need though. I'd like to take a flyer on him.

Then there's Noel, Zeller, and Len. I change my mind on these guys a lot, but at the moment, I'd take them in that order: Noel, Zeller, Len. My brain tells me to take Zeller first, but it's so hard to ignore the "potential" and hype around Noel. On one hand I think that Noel is a good bet to be a above average rebounder, and an above average defender, but at the same time, I don't think he's really going to be that great at either, and he's definitely going to be a liability on offense. I'm not even factoring in the ACL issue at this point. I can't help but compare him to Anthony Davis either, and for all the hype around Davis and his defensive impact, he's actually been pretty lackluster so far in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball. That doesn't bode well for Noel, IMO, considering Noel isn't half the defender Davis was at Kentucky (try to avoid focusing too heavily on the blocks - they're deceiving). Zeller is an incredibly gifted offensive player, and he'd help immediately in that regard. Defensively, he needs to add to his frame for starters, because he's somewhat of a liability on defense for Indiana right now, and it'll only be worse in the NBA. And then there's Len, who I just really don't want to see on our team. He's been a solid force for Maryland, and physically he looks great, but when I look at him and imagine him in the NBA, I genuinely cannot see him ever scoring more than 8 PPG and hauling in 7-8 RPG as a starter. And most likely he'll be on the bench for his career, averaging something like 6 PPG and 5 RPG. I just don't see the realistic upside with him.



All in all, I really want McLemore and Porter. And I'm very intrigued by Bennett. Thoughts?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Obviously agree on Porter. Noel intrigues as a C who can run with Wall. His strength down low and durability concern me. He's possibly the #1 pick though regardless.

McLemore is too similar to Beal IMO, he's very good, but Beal is already here and doing what McLemore is doing in the NBA. Shabazz talent wise especially offensively is probably #3. But I'd still prefer Porter for the Wizards.

IMO the Wizards board should look something like Noel, Porter, Zeller... not sure of the order, but I would be happy with any of those 3, and expect at least one of them to be there for us. Beyond those 3 I'd look to Bennett or Oladipo. Agree Bennett could possibly be another Larry Johnson, and I could see him becoming the best player in this draft. I was high on him before, but kind of dropped alittle in my eyes after reading an article of him adjusting to the increased physicality of in-conference play, wondering about adjusting to the NBA especially at PF. But the guy definitely has an impressive skillset.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... rence-Play

[jmrosenth]

Oladipo's been phenomenal this year, although I have to admit I'm still a little skeptical just because of the fact that he seemingly came out of nowhere as a junior, but I'll try not to hold that against him. I also think he's become incredibly overrated as a lock-down defender, when the stats suggest he's actually one of the Hoosiers' worst defenders. With that said, I like his overall skill set, and he seems like the right type of attitude you want around your team, and I think he could fit in well here.

What stats suggest he's one of the Hoosiers' worst defenders? Have you watched any of his games? "incredibly overrated as lock-down defender" is simply wrong IMO. He isn't just a steals gambler that is for sure.

As I've mentioned on this thread before, Dipo was doing a lot of this stuff last year, except nobody was really paying attention.

I don't think you draft him as a SF. He may be able to get some minutes there, but I don't think he'll be able to play big minutes at that spot - maybe I'm wrong. because of that, he's going to slip down the lottery a bit.

[pancakes3]

Dipo is a junk yard dog on defense who has the "butt athleticism" (going full WizD) to get low and hound guards and sf's alike. Maybe the +/- numbers suggest otherwise but the eye test tells me that he'll be a willing and successful defender in the NBA where - as mentioned before - (perimeter) defense is more a product of scheme, coaching, and hustle than physical ability. His offense will be questionable. I'd say Thabo Sefalosha is a good comparison for him. Good, not great.

Porter on the other hand has the skill that pays - scoring. The mind boggles that DX still has him at 11, 3 spots lower than Oladipo. I don't think there's a single flaw to Porter's game. Size is the only issue I can think of, but honestly in all facets of the game he's solid as Sears. As far as scoring goes, he hits all 3 check boxes. He can score in volume, he can score efficiently, and he can score from anywhere on the court. As far as defense goes, he has the size, length, smarts and hustle. A few pounds undersized but luckily all the "good" sf's are transitioning to PF: Lebron, Melo, Durant. He can definitely check the likes of Granger, Butler, and Pierce. His all-around game shines too. Rebounding at a good clip, assists at a great clip, and his TO's generated vs created is fantastic. For such a high usage player he turns the ball over a very very low amount.

My friend who went courtside a few games a month ago on his boss's dime while the bossman was away said that he was blown away by the way Porter could cover ground with his speed and length. His NBA analogy was "Rudy Gay if Rudy Gay played like he actually gave a s***"

[Knighthonor]

I've been doing a lot of college scouting recently, and here's some of my thoughts as far as the lottery pick goes.

First of all, I want nothing to do with Michael Carter-Williams or Marcus Smart. Smart seems to be shooting up the draft boards recently, but I just don't understand what all the hype's about. He's massive for a PG, and he's a lock-down defender. But his offense is very average, even at the college level. That doesn't bode well for his transition to the pros. I hate to make this comparison, because they happen to come from the same college, but he seems like Tony Allen to me. Yeah, Smart will likely try his hand at being a full time PG in the NBA, but I just don't see it really working out long-term. But he seems like a hard-nosed guy that loves to play defense. I know I said I didn't want anything to do with him at the beginning, and all of a sudden I'm saying all these great things about him, but I just think he's become wayyy over-hyped, and I would be furious if we used a top 5 or so pick on him. If we end up in the 10-14 pick range, then we can start considering him if he somehow lasts that long, but even then, I just don't see him being that special, and I don't think he fits on this team at the moment. Most NBA teams would love to have a Tony Allen, but it's not exactly what you hope for when you're a lottery team with a top 10 pick. Oh, and Michael Carter-Williams just isn't good at all - no thanks.


My biggest question(s) about this draft involve Ben McLemore, and Victor Oladipo. The question that I have with these guys is simply whether or not they can play SF in the NBA. Another pertinent question to ask here is if we'd be interested in drafting a PG or SG knowing that they'd be the 3rd guard after Wall and Beal (unless they prove to be the better player a few years down the line). Let's say Wall and Beal both average 36 MPG next year, that would only leave 24 minutes for the guard spots (unless we want to go real small for some stretches).

Personally I think it's clear that we have 2 guards right now, Wall and Beal, and no one else, so we definitely could use a 3rd guard (whether a combo guard or not) who takes on a decent amount of minutes. I also think it's time to light a fire under Wall and make him earn the starting job (and near max contract that he's in line for very soon, sadly). If all 3 players end up being good, and there's not enough minutes to go around, then we can trade one of them for front court depth. Too much talent is a good problem to have.

Ideally, however, these guys could play SF at least part-time, if not full-time. Thoughts on whether this is possible for them/us?

Oladipo's been phenomenal this year, although I have to admit I'm still a little skeptical just because of the fact that he seemingly came out of nowhere as a junior, but I'll try not to hold that against him. I also think he's become incredibly overrated as a lock-down defender, when the stats suggest he's actually one of the Hoosiers' worst defenders. With that said, I like his overall skill set, and he seems like the right type of attitude you want around your team, and I think he could fit in well here.

McLemore is a stud. And for those of you who don't know me, it takes a LOT for me to say something positive about anyone who went to kU. But this kid can ball. I honestly think he might be the best player in the draft right now. Only problem is that he's only 6'5", and seems like a perfect fit at SG, but obviously we have Beal, so that could be a problem. That's why I'm hoping he could slide over to SF for long stretches of the game, but I feel like that's not very realistic. Either way, I'd love to find a way to make it work, because I honestly think McLemore is a future star in this league, and I'd LOVE to have a McLemore/Beal wing combo for the next 10+ years (fun fact: they played on the same AAU team in high school).

If McLemore isn't the best player in the draft right now, then I think I'd go with Otto Porter. Porter does everything well, on both sides of the floor, and if you've ever heard this kid interview, you can tell he has the passion and dedication needed to succeed as an individual and as a team. The Georgetown/DC connection would be a fun bonus too. And he fits perfectly with what we need, and is a legitimate NBA SF. I'd be very happy if we ended up with Porter in this draft.

Another player that I'm pretty high on is Anthony Bennett. I think Bennett might be the good stretch 4 that we've been waiting for. Not only can he shoot the 3 ball decently well, but he can score in so many different ways. He has legitimate perimeter skills, as well as elite post skills. He's good on both sides of the floor too. Some are concerned that he wont' be able to defend PFs at the NBA level, but I think he'll hold his own. He's got a pretty thick frame, IIRC. Bennett might be a big sleeper at the moment.

As far as Shabazz, I like his skill set, I love the potential (you can see him becoming a star at the next level, theoretically, when you watch him play), and I love that he can probably play SF at the NBA level. HOWEVER, the kid continues to demonstrate that he's a me-first player who is selfish and doesn't care about his team's success unless he's the one making all the shots. He seems really immature, and I think he could clash with lots of NBA players, especially if he isn't his team's main or secondary scoring option from the get-go. That's a lot of red flags, IMO. I don't really want anything to do with them, either. If we end up with like the 7th or 8th pick and he's still around, I'd probably be okay with drafting him there, but I'd be wary from day one about his attitude.

CJ McCollum is really underrated and overlooked, partly because of the conference he plays in, and partly because of his season-ending injury a couple months ago. But I really love this kid, he's incredibly efficient and can take on huge scoring loads. I'm curious as to why a lot of draft scouting websites have him listed as a SG, because he's obviously very small for a SG, and seems to fit as a PG better, IMO. Maybe he's the combo guard off the bench we need though. I'd like to take a flyer on him.

Then there's Noel, Zeller, and Len. I change my mind on these guys a lot, but at the moment, I'd take them in that order: Noel, Zeller, Len. My brain tells me to take Zeller first, but it's so hard to ignore the "potential" and hype around Noel. On one hand I think that Noel is a good bet to be a above average rebounder, and an above average defender, but at the same time, I don't think he's really going to be that great at either, and he's definitely going to be a liability on offense. I'm not even factoring in the ACL issue at this point. I can't help but compare him to Anthony Davis either, and for all the hype around Davis and his defensive impact, he's actually been pretty lackluster so far in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball. That doesn't bode well for Noel, IMO, considering Noel isn't half the defender Davis was at Kentucky (try to avoid focusing too heavily on the blocks - they're deceiving). Zeller is an incredibly gifted offensive player, and he'd help immediately in that regard. Defensively, he needs to add to his frame for starters, because he's somewhat of a liability on defense for Indiana right now, and it'll only be worse in the NBA. And then there's Len, who I just really don't want to see on our team. He's been a solid force for Maryland, and physically he looks great, but when I look at him and imagine him in the NBA, I genuinely cannot see him ever scoring more than 8 PPG and hauling in 7-8 RPG as a starter. And most likely he'll be on the bench for his career, averaging something like 6 PPG and 5 RPG. I just don't see the realistic upside with him.



All in all, I really want McLemore and Porter. And I'm very intrigued by Bennett. Thoughts?

I like post like this.. goes into detail. Thats the info I want in a draft thread.

I looking up videos on draft express on these guys you mention. have a few questions.
Ben McLemore seem beastly! but how would he work in DC? Can he play SF? or even PG?
If he can play SF that would be great. Or play the 6 man. But worried about the placement.

Otto Porter also seem beast, but I fear he along side the current roster wont get the Wizards past much. They would be like the pre RG3 skins. they suck, but dont suck bad enough for quality drafts, and the cycle repeats. But maybe I am thinking with to much concern on this. He could be big. but Wizards seriously need a star player. Can he be it?

Victor Oladipo, how could he be used on the Wizards?

[Ruzious]

Dipo is a junk yard dog on defense who has the "butt athleticism" (going full WizD) to get low and hound guards and sf's alike. Maybe the +/- numbers suggest otherwise but the eye test tells me that he'll be a willing and successful defender in the NBA where - as mentioned before - (perimeter) defense is more a product of scheme, coaching, and hustle than physical ability. His offense will be questionable. I'd say Thabo Sefalosha is a good comparison for him. Good, not great.

Porter on the other hand has the skill that pays - scoring. The mind boggles that DX still has him at 11, 3 spots lower than Oladipo. I don't think there's a single flaw to Porter's game. Size is the only issue I can think of, but honestly in all facets of the game he's solid as Sears. As far as scoring goes, he hits all 3 check boxes. He can score in volume, he can score efficiently, and he can score from anywhere on the court. As far as defense goes, he has the size, length, smarts and hustle. A few pounds undersized but luckily all the "good" sf's are transitioning to PF: Lebron, Melo, Durant. He can definitely check the likes of Granger, Butler, and Pierce. His all-around game shines too. Rebounding at a good clip, assists at a great clip, and his TO's generated vs created is fantastic. For such a high usage player he turns the ball over a very very low amount.

My friend who went courtside a few games a month ago on his boss's dime while the bossman was away said that he was blown away by the way Porter could cover ground with his speed and length. His NBA analogy was "Rudy Gay if Rudy Gay played like he actually gave a s***"

Yeah, he's got ridiculously long effortless looking strides going up and down court - kinda reminds me of Jacoby Jones returning kickoffs for the Ravens. Still not getting why some think he's a very average athlete. It's like - you can't be smart and athletic at the same time? As long as Porter stays aggressive, he can't miss.

[nuposse04]

I don't think his lateral quickness is an issue. He's pretty nimble on his feet. The only apparent thing he lacks physically is explosive leaping ability. He's not like...z-bo bad in the leaping department but I can't help but wonder, does he not need to utilize his leaping more than he does, or is he gonna pull a fast one on us and show it off on a grander stage.

I think we'd be able to trade up say in...the top 3 if CHA is there and wants to trade down, if he really want him that high.

[rockymac52]

What stats suggest he's one of the Hoosiers' worst defenders? Have you watched any of his games? "incredibly overrated as lock-down defender" is simply wrong IMO. He isn't just a steals gambler that is for sure.

As I've mentioned on this thread before, Dipo was doing a lot of this stuff last year, except nobody was really paying attention.

I don't think you draft him as a SF. He may be able to get some minutes there, but I don't think he'll be able to play big minutes at that spot - maybe I'm wrong. because of that, he's going to slip down the lottery a bit.

I'm basing my opinion of Oladipo on his synergy stats. According to synergy, Oladipo has allowed his man to score an average of .89 PPP. For some perspective, that puts him in the 34th percentile on defense (1 being the worst, 100 being the best).

Now, I don't want to make it seem like this one stat is the end-all be-all, but I think it's a pretty telling one.

Going back to last year, here's where all college SGs that got drafted ranked in defensive PPP allowed:

Bradley Beal: .75 PPP (73%)
Dion Waiters: .75 PPP (74%)
Terrence Ross: .72 PPP (81%)
Austin Rivers: .78 PPP (68%)
Jeremy Lamb: .75 PPP (73%)
John Jenkins: .85 PPP (50%)
Jared Cunningham: .85 PPP (49%)
Orlando Johnson: .78 PPP (69%)
Will Barton: .83 PPP (55%)
Doron Lamb: .87 PPP (43%)
Kimmie English: .9 PPP (37%)
Marcus Denmon: .92 PPP (31%)

Also, kinda interesting that the defensive PPP allowed rank almost perfectly decreases as you go down from highest picks to lowest picks, just noticed that in this sample. Anyways, Oladipo's stats for this season would put him right at the bottom 2/3 SGs drafted last year (as far as defensive PPP allowed, not overall talent!).

Interestingly enough, Oladipo has got worse in this regard every season. As a freshman he allowed .7 PPP (84%), and as a sophomore he allowed .84 PPP (52%). He's regressing, oddly enough. Maybe he's defending the other team's best players more this season, and that's what's to blame, or maybe not. Even if that's the case, what this tells us is that he cannot D up the other team's best player. AKA he's not a good defender. He's been getting killed trying to defend spot up shooters and the pick and roll this year. Like, absolutely obliterated. He's been fine in every other play type category.

I will say that he does pass the eye test though, and he seems like the type of player who is willing to commit to playing lock-down defense, so there's that at least.

Also, interestingly enough (again), Oladipo has been dominant on offense. I don't think he's getting enough credit for his offensive contributions. It's like everyone's scouting report on him is backwards. On offense he's averaging 1.17 PPP (96%). Furthermore, he doesn't have any play type category that's a weakness. His biggest "weakness" is isolation plays, where he scores .81 PPP (65%), and that's not even really a weakness. He's really impressed me on offense this year.

[nate33]

All in all, I really want McLemore and Porter. And I'm very intrigued by Bennett. Thoughts?

Good post Rocky. I agree with many of your thoughts. I don't want Smart, Len or Shabazz; and McLemore is a good player but a bad fit. That leaves Noel, Porter, Oladipo, Bennett and Zeller.

I don't share you concerns about Noel. I think he'll be an excellent NBA defender. If the Anthony Davis analogy holds up, I'd be absolutely thrilled. Davis is posting a PER of 20 and is truly the best rookie in the league right now.

Everybody loves Porter, there's no need to go into any more detail on him. Bottom line is his downside is extremely limited; he WILL be a starter in this league. And his upside is pretty good but probably more of an uber-role player than a first or second option scorer.

I'm not worried about Oladipo's D, but there is a real concern that he can't steal any SF minutes, making him a bit of a waste on our roster behind Beal.

Bennett is indeed intriguing. His skill set and natural position is a perfect fit for us. If he measures out to have a standing reach at least as tall as Booker (8'-10") then I'd be pretty comfortable drafting him if Noel and Porter are off the board. If his standing reach is anything below, I'd be a little concerned. History shows that 8'-10" is the cutoff for PF's. The only starting-caliber PF's in the league any smaller are Griffin (8'-9" and freak athlete) and Millsap (8'-9.5")

I don't like Zeller as much. I'd take Porter, Bennett and Oladipo ahead of him, but he'd be an okay consolation prize if we end up picking 7th or 8th. I'd draft him, but I'd start working the phones afterwards to see if we could trade down to 11th or 12th and take Burke while picking up some incentive.

[rockymac52]

I like post like this.. goes into detail. Thats the info I want in a draft thread.

I looking up videos on draft express on these guys you mention. have a few questions.
Ben McLemore seem beastly! but how would he work in DC? Can he play SF? or even PG?
If he can play SF that would be great. Or play the 6 man. But worried about the placement.

Otto Porter also seem beast, but I fear he along side the current roster wont get the Wizards past much. They would be like the pre RG3 skins. they suck, but dont suck bad enough for quality drafts, and the cycle repeats. But maybe I am thinking with to much concern on this. He could be big. but Wizards seriously need a star player. Can he be it?

Victor Oladipo, how could he be used on the Wizards?

That was my question too, about McLemore. I have no doubt that he's a top 3 player in this draft, possibly the best, but I'm just not sure how he fits into our current roster. IF he can play SF on a regular basis, then problem solved. But, I suspect that he can't really play SF without being abused defensively, so that leaves us in a less than ideal situation.

He could become our 6th man, and we'd have a very strong 3 guard rotation (other than garbage minutes). It'd be a shame to see him on the bench, but maybe that's good for him to start his career out without having things handed to him, and this way, he'll have to earn his minutes. And if/when McLemore proves that he's good enough to be starting for us, then we'll have a glut of guards, and we can trade one of Wall, Beal, or McLemore for a very talented front court player. We have a lot of big problems that need fixing as is, I don't think we can really afford to pick based on team need, rather, we need to just draft the best player available.

Not to mention, right now we've got Wall and Beal starting and getting the vast majority of the guard minutes, but after them, we've got nothing. Price and Temple shouldn't be on the court. Since Crawford was traded, Wall and Beal have been getting a TON of minutes (possibly too many, if they're planning on continuing this pace for the rest of the season). Let's say next year that Wall and Beal both play 36 minutes per game. That leaves 24 minutes for another guard spot. We could start McLemore off with 24 minutes per game, and maybe a few extra if he can play SF part-time. The problem then becomes who takes control of the point when Wall is sitting for those 12 minutes per game. Beal and McLemore both have decent handles, but neither is really a PG. Realistically we'd have to have another backup PG to take those minutes, even if he sucks like Price. So then the only way we can make it work (other than someone suffering an injury), is if Wall and Beal get more like 32 MPG, and/or if McLemore can play SF. It's an interesting possibility. I say if we think McLemore is the best player available, we go ahead and take him and sort out the minutes distributions later. Just get the best player and go from there.



As for Otto Porter being good but not good enough, well, that's going to be an issue no matter what most likely. But as we've seen since Wall returned, this team as is is a solid team that could fight for a playoff spot if they were healthy for the entire season. Next year it theoretically only gets better, assuming Beal develops further, as well as Wall (not getting my hopes up) and/or other young players. Then add in another good player (like Porter), and we're slowly improving our roster, and learning how to win games on a regular basis. We can't expect to just wait until we strike gold in the lottery and draft one year and get a superstar who instantly makes us a contender. That'd be nice, but it's not exactly easy to do, and the odds are more than stacked against us (and every other team). So we gotta start winning at some point, and if Porter helps us improve as a team, then that's a good thing that we need to go for. And, Porter honestly has a solid chance of being a damn good player. Maybe not a superstar or anything like that, but I could see him being a fringe all-star over time, and definitely being a quality rotation player that any team would want to have.

[rockymac52]

Good post Rocky. I agree with many of your thoughts. I don't want Smart, Len or Shabazz; and McLemore is a good player but a bad fit. That leaves Noel, Porter, Oladipo, Bennett and Zeller.

I don't share you concerns about Noel. I think he'll be an excellent NBA defender. If the Anthony Davis analogy holds up, I'd be absolutely thrilled. Davis is posting a PER of 20 and is truly the best rookie in the league right now.

Everybody loves Porter, there's no need to go into any more detail on him. Bottom line is his downside is extremely limited; he WILL be a starter in this league. And his upside is pretty good but probably more of an uber-role player than a first or second option scorer.

I'm not worried about Oladipo's D, but there is a real concern that he can't steal any SF minutes, making him a bit of a waste on our roster behind Beal.

Bennett is indeed intriguing. His skill set and natural position is a perfect fit for us. If he measures out to have a standing reach at least as tall as Booker (8'-10") then I'd be pretty comfortable drafting him if Noel and Porter are off the board. If his standing reach is anything below, I'd be a little concerned. History shows that 8'-10" is the cutoff for PF's. The only starting-caliber PF's in the league any smaller are Griffin (8'-9" and freak athlete) and Millsap (8'-9.5")

I don't like Zeller as much. I'd take Porter, Bennett and Oladipo ahead of him, but he'd be an okay consolation prize if we end up picking 7th or 8th. I'd draft him, but I'd start working the phones afterwards to see if we could trade down to 11th or 12th and take Burke while picking up some incentive.

The more I think about it, the more I feel like Bennett is going to be a Wizard. Obviously a lot of that will depend on how the lottery plays out, but assuming we stay in the 3-8 range, I could see him being the guy. And it could work out perfectly if he's as good as I think he can be/is.

I'm not a big Zeller fan either, especially when you take into account the eye test and stuff like that. I just can't see him fitting in here and actually being GOOD. Like, maybe he hustles and carves out a role on the bench, but I have a hard time envisioning him being on the Wizards and being good. On paper, he's a great player. But, I dunno, I just don't think I'd be happy if he was our pick. Like you said, maybe if we're picking 8-10 and he's the best guy available, it's not the end of the world, it's certainly not a bad pick, but it's not exactly an inspiring pick either. But if that's where our pick lands, not much we can do.

With that said, I also agree with you that if we end up in the 8-10 range, then I'd like to trade down. I'd love to get a pick in the 11-16 range, to take a PG to become our immediate backup, and somewhat of a contingency plan if Wall really falls on his face. I feel like all the PGs in this draft are really underrated (with the exception of Smart and Carter-Williams). I'd love to get a guy like CJ McCollum, Trey Burke, or Isaiah Canaan.

[nate33]

The more I think about it, the more I feel like Bennett is going to be a Wizard. Obviously a lot of that will depend on how the lottery plays out, but assuming we stay in the 3-8 range, I could see him being the guy. And it could work out perfectly if he's as good as I think he can be/is.

You're right. There's a real good chance he's our man. If we land a top 3 pick, I assume we'll take Noel if available, and probably Porter if he's not. (Chad Ford seems to think we like Len a lot, let's hope not.) But if we end up picking in the 5-7 range, there's a good chance that Noel, Smart, McLemore and Porter will be off the board. I think Bennett is likely to be there still and will probably be our best option.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

With that said, I also agree with you that if we end up in the 8-10 range, then I'd like to trade down. I'd love to get a pick in the 11-16 range, to take a PG to become our immediate backup, and somewhat of a contingency plan if Wall really falls on his face. I feel like all the PGs in this draft are really underrated (with the exception of Smart and Carter-Williams). I'd love to get a guy like CJ McCollum, Trey Burke, or Isaiah Canaan.

Let's assume best case happens and the Wizards select Porter. Just about everyone is on board, as they were when Beal was selected.

I agree rockymac52, this class of PGs is underrated. Just as there is agreement on Porter, I sense there are few who doubt McCollum or Burke will be solid NBA players. They will be selected 11-16 or at the latest, by around pick 20 both will be off the board. I mentioned Ray McCallum Jr. Like you, rocky, I also think Isaiah Canaan in round 2 could turn out to be a really good pick for Washington. In addition, Nate Wolters might end up in D-League or Europe, but I think he has an outside shot to stick in the NBA.

Instead of trading up for a PG the Wizards will have two or three PGs in round 2 to choose from who can play reasonably well. I think Lorenzo Brown might also be decent.

[rockymac52]

Nate, I forgot to add, let's say McLemore is a pure SG - he can't really play SF or PG at the NBA level for more than a couple minutes here and there. If that's the case, then basic logic suggests that he wouldn't be a good fit here, because Wall is our PG, and Beal is our SG.

I've already explained how I think McLemore could be a great 6th man and 3rd guard for us, but aside from the possibilities of being able to successfully have all 3 on our team and playing steady, solid minutes, I wanted to explore the possibility of drafting McLemore for other reasons.

First of all, I don't know what changed between last summer and now, when most of you guys were saying we needed to take the best player available, and not draft for need (Beal happened to be both, arguably). Sure, it looks like we have our SG position shored up with Beal for the foreseeable future, but that doesn't mean we couldn't use more help at the 2. If we're talking two players, one SG and one C, that we believe are of nearly equal value, maybe the SG is sliiiightly better than the C, then I guess I'd be okay with drafting based on positional needs at that point, but I still am hesitant.

Let's rewind back to last summer. I know people get heated whenever we talk about the alleged Harden for Beal trade proposal, but I just wanted to remind people of that possibility. Without getting too sidetracked debating if we should have done that trade or not (or whether it existed in the first place or not), what if we get another high pick, anywhere from 1-8 or so?

Now, I have preferences for certain players that are expected to be lottery picks - I want some more than others, obviously. However, it's clear that at this point, there's really no consensus #1 pick, and practically anybody in the top 7 or 8 could conceivably be drafted anywhere from 1-8. So a higher pick (1-4) isn't necessarily that much more valuable than a 5-8 pick this season, other than your increased likelihood of getting your preferred player. So I think it follows that the trade market for the top 8 picks isn't necessarily going to be as strong as it typically is. In other years, if you wanted to trade the 2nd or 3rd pick, you could pretty much guarantee that you could acquire a very good player in return, or even multiple good players and/or picks. This year? Not so much. At least, not AS much. I'm sure there will be some teams that want to trade up into the top 8 picks or so, but I have to imagine that they won't be willing to give up as much as they would in other years.

But, with that said, last year we were basically offered Harden for Beal (+ Singleton??). There's more to the story than that, and it's not like a player of Harden's caliber is going to be available for that price in any given year, but I'm sure in any given year, there's always a handful of marquee players that are on the trading block and can be acquired for the right price.

So let's say we get the 3rd pick this year again. And let's say Noel and Muhammad go 1 and 2 (not important who those top two players are here, really). So we're on the clock, and we're probably (hopefully) deciding between Ben McLemore, Otto Porter, and Anthony Bennett. Let's say we believe that McLemore is definitely the best player of the 3, but he can only play SG, and he'd have to be our 6th man for the time being, and we're concerned about having that lopsided of a roster. So while some of you might say just don't draft McLemore, and get Porter or Bennett instead and be done with it and be happy, I'm not so sure that's our best move.

We're a young team, and we've still got a long way to go in this rebuild. We could use another solid player, especially a young one that will be around for a while, so we definitely do value our draft pick. But what if a team approached us with a trade proposal along the lines of the 3rd pick + filler (Singleton?) for Harden (not literally Harden, he's not going anywhere, but a damn good player like that)? I don't want to see a typical Ernie trade where we are impatient and trade away a big asset that is essentially young (the pick) for an above average but not that great veteran or two (think Miller/Foye). Any ideas of what players/teams might be interested in a trade like that?

The trade doesn't have to happen on draft night either. We can draft McLemore, get crafty with our minutes distribution and get him at least 25 MPG coming off the bench, and let him prove that he belongs in this league, then consider trading him (or Wall or Beal) for a good player when they become available.

Think about how when discussing trades before the deadline this year, the general consensus was that everyone was available, but Wall, Beal, (Nene?), and the draft pick were pretty much untouchable. We realized quickly that if we were going to make those three guys and the pick untouchable, then we realistically weren't going to get anything of value back in a trade. You gotta give something to get something. But the problem is we don't have enough "good" players on our roster that we could even entertain the possibility of losing one of them in a trade. For example, some of you guys wanted to trade for Rudy Gay (don't get started on that debate again, just an example). But the consensus was we wouldn't be willing to give up Beal in a trade for Gay. Imagine if we had 3 young, good guards, all of which had a bright future in this league and were sought after by other NBA teams. Now we can be legitimate contenders in the trade market, because we have a surplus of something, and it has a pretty sizable value.

I suppose you could just as easily draft Porter, let him play more minutes at SF and be a better fit, and then if we want to make a trade later, we could trade Porter for that player instead of McLemore, but I'm just saying, if we believe McLemore is going to be the far better player, then we gotta go McLemore. I don't to draft Thomas Robinson when I could have drafted Damian Lillard. Even if I already had a PG for the future, and Lillard didn't really fit in with our team needs, the fact is, if he's the better player, you take him anyways, because you can always trade him in the future. Imagine if Portland announced before the deadline that Lillard was on the block. He'd probably get them a huge haul whenever a trade was finalized. Or they could take the slightly worse player, TRob, who fits on their roster better, but then have a less valuable asset as a result. Doesn't make sense. You take the better asset.

[Ruzious]

For those who downgraded Burke because of his low 1.4 steals per game, he had 2 steals in the final 25 seconds of the game today (one he converted to a layup) to beat Michigan State 58-57. He would have a brilliant overall game, excellent he missed some easy shots. He controlled the game - it really was like watching Chris Paul.

[stevemcqueen1]

McLemore is too similar to Beal IMO, he's very good, but Beal is already here and doing what McLemore is doing in the NBA. Shabazz talent wise especially offensively is probably #3. But I'd still prefer Porter for the Wizards.

Well, having two Beals would be awesome. Perhaps I read you wrong, but I took you as saying we'd have a hard time getting McLemore enough minutes to make picking him worthwhile.

I agree with that point. That's the problem I keep coming back to with McLemore, Oladipo, and Shabazz. If you draft McLemore, you probably took him with a top three pick. It's tough to spend that kind of an asset on a reserve player. Or I guess you could start them at SF but that lineup would just be so small.

Bazz is an iffy play at SF. He's got good arm length and he's got pretty decent bulk for the SF position but he's short for a SF and his length and reach is not comparable to a lot of the SFs of the league. Plus a player like him really does make sense being matched up with a SG where he'll be fast enough to guard them and he can use his strength to really bully guys like Joe Johnson does.

Basically, I think Shabazz is a physical mismatch for NBA SGs. But then you put him at a physical disadvantage against most NBA SFs. So then why not play him at SG even though his background is at SF?

Bazz is the easiest one to rationalize playing SF in lineups with Beal and Wall, but it's not an ideal fit. I think you'd be sacrificing a lot defensively to add some scoring. Maybe creating some bad matchups and you'd have spent such a high pick on him you've got to play him or trade him. I don't want to get stuck with a constant mismatched tweener lineup like Atl was under the Joe Johnson/Smith/Horford/Marvin Williams construction.

I think we just take a big man if he's available or trade down if Muhammad/McLemore/Oladipo/any other guard are the BPA.

[nate33]

So let's say we get the 3rd pick this year again. And let's say Noel and Muhammad go 1 and 2 (not important who those top two players are here, really). So we're on the clock, and we're probably (hopefully) deciding between Ben McLemore, Otto Porter, and Anthony Bennett. Let's say we believe that McLemore is definitely the best player of the 3, but he can only play SG, and he'd have to be our 6th man for the time being, and we're concerned about having that lopsided of a roster. So while some of you might say just don't draft McLemore, and get Porter or Bennett instead and be done with it and be happy, I'm not so sure that's our best move.

I don't think McLemore is a tier above Porter or Bennett. He's in the same tier. I have no problem choosing the best fit within a tier. I would take Porter or Bennett in that scenario with no regrets.

The problem is that when you get two players who play the same position (and can't easily play out of position), everyone knows you are in dire straits. You never get fair value when teams know you have to make a trade. Also, while the Harden Hhypothetical is an interesting analogy, it's definitely not the norm. Opportunities to trade for a young franchise player do not come along often. Maybe you see it once every three or four years. If we knew of an impending situation that was similar (the Harden situation was definitely foreseeable), then maybe I'd consider it. But for now, I can't think of any equivalent player that might be available. Maybe Kevin Love if he demands to be traded, but that's still a long shot.