theBigLip Annual Tank Predictor

Post #1 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 5:15 am

I've created a simple model the last few years to help determine where we will land in the standings along with the other teams around us. Things usually don't change too dramatically the last 20 games, but there are some indications of likely movements.

There are just a few simple rules:
- these teams will lose ALL of their road games
- these teams will win home games only if it is against another team on the list
- I only included up to Philly - I assume Dallas, Portland and the Lakers are above this analysis

I did not include the Charlie Villaneauva variant which allows him to score 40ppg the last two weeks of the season and ruin the analysis, but I probably should.

With all that said, here is the analysis with current and predicted records:

10. Toronto (23-37) (27-55)
10. Detroit (23-39) (27-55)

9. Phoenix (21-39) (26-56)

6. Philadelphia (23-35) (25-57)
6. Minnesota (20-36) (25-57)
6. Sacramento (21-40) (25-57)

4. Cleveland (20-39) (24-58)
4. Washington (19-39) (24-58)

3. New Orleans (21-39) (23-59)

2. Orlando (16-44) (xx-yy) Crappy beyond analysis - we'll give them #2
1. Charlotte (13-46) (xx-yy) Crappier still - we'll give them #1

Bottomline, none of these teams are likely to win very many games. We are most likely to stick around 9th place. Ugh.

The Moose · Post #2 » by **The Moose** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 5:38 am

These rules don't really work...

To think that Philly will finish the season 2-22 is a bit ridiculous

Goldtop · Post #3 » by **Goldtop** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 9:33 am

Man, if we finish with only 27 wins in a full 82 games season, after finishing with 25 wins in a 66 game season last year, I don't see how anyone in the Pistons organization could call that progress. And since Gores said thats his main objective when evaluating, you would think there would be some changes if that happens.

Mr Peanut · Post #4 » by **Mr Peanut** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 9:49 am

Yep because it's extremely likely that all bottom 11 teams lose every road game, and don't get lucky even once when playing the other 19 teams in the league...

Goldtop · Post #5 » by **Goldtop** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 10:22 am

Now that we are officially not making the playoffs, being 8.5 game out of 8th, I'm all abord the Tank Train.

I just looked at the standings in relation to the lotto for the first time this year, and I'm amazed to see we are only 2 games up on WAS for the 3rd worst record in the league!

This reminds me of the Lions season. I never looked at the standings all year in relation to the draft with the Lions. I was always looking at the other side, how many games out we were from the playoffs. Then I looked the last few weeks of the season and saw we were in position to get the 5th pick and suddenly the whole seasn was worth it. Thats how this feels now.

If we come away with a top 5 pick, come back with a healthy Drummond, a new coach, and some upgraded talent in FA/trades with our capspace. This season will have all been worth it.

Piston Pete · Post #6 » by **Piston Pete** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 12:34 pm

I see us losing most of March, and then winning at least half our April games --- keeping us in 8th or 9th in the lottery. :evil:

Kilo · Post #7 » by **Kilo** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 2:09 pm

Toronto has no reason to tank - so that helps us out. Their pick goes to Oklahoma. Hunter in PHX needs to win now to try and earn the full time coaching gig.

I think we go better than 4-16 the rest of the way. But also there is really no elite talents, so reason for these teams to tank purposefully either.

I think we go 6-14 at worst.

I bet we'll get sniped by Sacramento again - they'll take Muhammad.

Post #8 » by **Timmaytime** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 2:37 pm

I think Philly and Toronto will end up passing us, that'll move us to 8th. probably NOLA too, they have been playing better than us, alot better... And if you look at Washington's schedule, they have a 7 game stretch where they play Phoenix twice, Charlotte twice, Cleveland, Milwaukee and New Orleans..

I just pray that Frank doesn't realize his job is endangered and start to do some actual coaching...

I also only see 4 wins in our schedule(Charlotte, Philly, Minny, Cleveland)

Defor · Post #9 » by **Defor** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 2:53 pm

We'll lose our way down to the 5th spot.Then Frank in his usual incompetence, will suddenly become competent and win 4 outa 5, and blow us right outa the water, sealing our fate at 9th.

Post #10 » by **Snakebites** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 3:54 pm

I don't think we'll play any lower than we are now.

Post #11 » by **Cowology** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 4:02 pm

I could see us drop into that 6th-8th race for a time but we'll once again be competitive the last few weeks of the season and grab that #10 or #11 spot. A healthy Drummond makes a huge difference down the stretch.

Post #12 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 4:04 pm

The Moose wrote:These rules don't really work...

To think that Philly will finish the season 2-22 is a bit ridiculous

At first glance, I'd agree, but Philly has a tough schedule. They probably will win more than two, but I'll bet you they will be the underdog in all the rest. Take a look at their schedule and you'll see what I mean:

11. Philadelphia (23-35) (25-57)
Tue, Mar 5 vsBoston
Wed, Mar 6 @Atlanta
Fri, Mar 8 @Miami
Sun, Mar 10 @Orlando
Mon, Mar 11 vsBrooklyn
Wed, Mar 13 vsMiami
Sat, Mar 16 vsIndiana
Mon, Mar 18 vsPortland
Wed, Mar 20 @Los Angeles
Thu, Mar 21 @Denver
Sun, Mar 24 @Sacramento
Mon, Mar 25 @Utah
Wed, Mar 27 vsMilwaukee
Fri, Mar 29 @Cleveland
Sat, Mar 30 vsCharlotte
Wed, Apr 3 @Charlotte
Fri, Apr 5 @Atlanta
Sat, Apr 6 @Miami
Tue, Apr 9 @Brooklyn
Wed, Apr 10 vsAtlanta
Fri, Apr 12 @Washington
Sun, Apr 14 vsCleveland
Mon, Apr 15 @Detroit
Wed, Apr 17 @Indiana

Post #13 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 4:05 pm

Maybe could tweek the rules and assume that everyone will beat Charlotte and Orlando even if they are on the road.

Post #14 » by **Cowology** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 4:35 pm

6-8 wins for Philly doesn't look unreasonable.

Post #15 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 4:59 pm

Cowology wrote:6-8 wins for Philly doesn't look unreasonable.

Care for a wager? You can have Philly at 7 more wins, and I'll take 6 and under. Winner gets to be referred to as 'Supreme Tank Predictor" until the end of the regular season :-)

DetroitDon15 · Post #16 » by **DetroitDon15** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 5:12 pm

YEah Philly will be screwed. They won't get more than 6 wins. Philly gave up alot to get Bynum who will almost certainly be gone in the offseason. They had to take on Richardson's deal as well. The Sixers offically got raped.

Post #17 » by **Cowology** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 5:14 pm

theBigLip wrote:
Cowology wrote:6-8 wins for Philly doesn't look unreasonable.

Care for a wager? You can have Philly at 7 more wins, and I'll take 6 and under. Winner gets to be referred to as 'Supreme Tank Predictor" until the end of the regular season

Not sure I feel that good about it, but Philly is another team that tends to play well down the stretch. There is always optimism heading into the following season before somebody get's injured and/or they just plain underachieve at the start of the year.

Piston Pete · Post #18 » by **Piston Pete** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 7:12 pm

theBigLip wrote:
The Moose wrote:
11. Philadelphia (23-35) (25-57)

POSSIBLY WINABLE GAMES:
Tue, Mar 5 vsBoston
Sun, Mar 10 @Orlando
Sun, Mar 24 @Sacramento
Wed, Mar 27 vsMilwaukee
Fri, Mar 29 @Cleveland
Sat, Mar 30 vsCharlotte
Wed, Apr 3 @Charlotte
Fri, Apr 12 @Washington
Sun, Apr 14 vsCleveland
Mon, Apr 15 @Detroit

I'll take that wager BigLip!

Post #19 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 7:37 pm

Piston Pete wrote:
theBigLip wrote:
The Moose wrote:
11. Philadelphia (23-35) (25-57)

POSSIBLY WINABLE GAMES:
Tue, Mar 5 vsBoston
Sun, Mar 10 @Orlando
Sun, Mar 24 @Sacramento
Wed, Mar 27 vsMilwaukee
Fri, Mar 29 @Cleveland
Sat, Mar 30 vsCharlotte
Wed, Apr 3 @Charlotte
Fri, Apr 12 @Washington
Sun, Apr 14 vsCleveland
Mon, Apr 15 @Detroit

I'll take that wager BigLip!

You're on! Hope I'm actually wrong - don't want the Pistons to pass Philly in the standings. It's a race to the bottom ;-)

Piston Pete · Post #20 » by **Piston Pete** » Mon Mar 4, 2013 7:44 pm

I hear ya BL, hope you're wrong too! :wink: