Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[stevemcqueen1]

$11 million per season isn't reduced enough to extend Wall this offseason instead of waiting. It could end up being a relative bargain, but it's at least as likely he'll end up not being worth that much. If he abruptly breaks out and has an MVP type season, I'd have no problem paying him the max. But, I wouldn't want to get stuck paying $11 million per year to an average player.

There is always risk in a situation like this. Steph Curry's extension looked like a huge risk in the offseason but now it's become one of the most valuable deals in the NBA.

We're already betting on Wall to be the franchise, whether the fan base is on board or not. We're not going to let him walk for nothing and there is no way we'd get back fair value in dealing him at this point so we're not going to trade him either.

[Nivek]

$11 million per season isn't reduced enough to extend Wall this offseason instead of waiting. It could end up being a relative bargain, but it's at least as likely he'll end up not being worth that much. If he abruptly breaks out and has an MVP type season, I'd have no problem paying him the max. But, I wouldn't want to get stuck paying $11 million per year to an average player.

There is always risk in a situation like this. Steph Curry's extension looked like a huge risk in the offseason but now it's become one of the most valuable deals in the NBA.

We're already betting on Wall to be the franchise, whether the fan base is on board or not. We're not going to let him walk for nothing and there is no way we'd get back fair value in dealing him at this point so we're not going to trade him either.

Except, Steph Curry's deal didn't look like a huge risk because he'd already proven he could play at a high level and be worth that kind of money. He had a significant injury, which was the only reason there was a question. A good medical staff could make an evaluation and provide input on the likelihood that Curry's ankle issue would be a recurring problem or whether he'd be able to return as a full-time player. Wall has not played over any extended period of time as well as a healthy Curry did.

The situation with Wall is much more like the situation the Jets have/had with Mark Sanchez. High draft pick, high hopes, not good performance. Again, Wall isn't an elite player going through a rough patch. He's POTENTIALLY an elite player -- IF he can fix major flaws in his game. I believe those flaws are fixable, but he's now in his third season and there isn't any visible progress in the fixing direction.

What you're talking about the team doing is a classic example of fallacious thinking. Picking Wall number one overall is a sunk cost. That pick is spent. All the hope, hype and planning based around Wall being The Franchise -- that's also sunk cost. What the team has to do over the next year or so is decide whether to place a new wager on what kind of player Wall will become.

If it was me, based on the information I have now, I wouldn't place a 4-year, $44 million wager on Wall becoming an elite player.

[nate33]

Discussion about extending Wall to anything less than a max or near-max offer are just a waste of time. Wall won't accept it. Our only realistic course of action is to wait until 2014 and match the best offer out there.

Or trading him.

[stevemcqueen1]

A 4-year, $44M contract would start at $9.9M with 7.5% raises. Wall's qualifying offer is $9.7M. I don't see any way whatsoever that Wall agrees to a 4-year, $44M extension when he could just as easily take the qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent in 2015 (and potentially play himself into a max contract).

Discussion about extending Wall to anything less than a max or near-max offer are just a waste of time. Wall won't accept it. Our only realistic course of action is to wait until 2014 and match the best offer out there.

Why do you assume the salary would include 7.5% raises and start at 9.9M? That contract structure doesn't match the precedents that Lawson, Curry, and Rondo's extensions set. Why do you assume he'd actually turn down a four year 8 figure per year deal to become a UFA? Who else has done that? Why do you assume his bargaining power would be stronger than Lawson's, Curry's, or Rondo's? Three to four million per year more than their deals are worth is significantly more.

You make a definitive statement here that Wall will actually command max/near max money, but the truth is you just don't know. And I think the assumptions you make here to get there are questionable.

What is true is that these types of early extensions are not unheard of with young players their teams view as franchise cornerstones. Ted's a fiscally conservative owner that seems to have rock solid belief in John as our franchise player. I'd be surprised if we don't see an extension like this happen at the end of the summer.

[nate33]

An extension like that is indeed unheard of for a former #1 overall pick who is still a high-minute starter. I GUARANTEE you that Wall considers himself a max player and a superstar. He's not out there thinking: "Golly Gee, I better take that $11M a year offer right now because that's the best I'll ever get". You can believe what you want, but I'm telling you, there will be no $11M per year extension. Not now. The only way he takes $11M is if it's in 2014 when that's the best offer on the table.

[FAH1223]

An extension like that is indeed unheard of for a former #1 overall pick who is still a high-minute starter. I GUARANTEE you that Wall considers himself a max player and a superstar. He's not out there thinking: "Golly Gee, I better take that $11M a year offer right now because that's the best I'll ever get". You can believe what you want, but I'm telling you, there will be no $11M per year extension. Not now. The only way he takes $11M is if it's in 2014 when that's the best offer on the table.

Wall isn't getting anything more than that from anyone. Not Washington, not anyone. He can think he's on the level of Griffin, the previous #1 pick, all he wants but there's no way in hell he's getting a 5 year max.

Wizards will match the offer and he will at the very least be trade bait. When he signs his extension he'll be almost 24.

[DCZards]

I would expect the Zards to offer Wall an extension this summer. It probably makes good business sense to at least extend an offer. Whether it's 11 mil a year or closer to $8-9 mil (which is probably what it should be) is the question.

I'm still a big fan of Wall's potential. His combo of size, athleticism and speed are second only to Westbrook at the PG position. On top of that, he's got excellent court vision and passing skills, and John can play impressive (almost Payton-like) defense when he wants to.

Plenty of room for improvement though, as others have already pointed out. But I do think there's been some improvement in his shooting stroke this season...although I'll admit it's hard to tell at times.

So, yes, I prefer to see Wall extended (for the right $$$) rather than traded.

[Higga]

I wouldn't offer Wall an extension. He needs to go out and earn it. Worst comes to worst he has a "contract year" and we end up overpaying a bit, but I'd rather do that and know what we have then give him $10+ Mil a year and five years from now he still can't hit a jump shot.

[tontoz]

I wouldn't offer Wall an extension. He needs to go out and earn it.

I agree. No way would i pay big money to a guy who right now probably isn't even an average starting pg. the only way he would be worth resigning is if he improves, a lot.

[Ruzious]

I don't think it'd be wise to offer an extension simply because - if he believes in himself, he'd turn it down in anticipation of improving to the point where he'd earn significantly more the next year as a UFA. And if he doesn't believe in himself, then you don't really want him.

[Dat2U]

A 22 yr old PG with a world of potential that's still an unfinished product...

I don't think $10/11 mil is unreasonable. Does he deserve it at this moment, no. But it's a calculated risk because if you wait, you may end up paying a lot more if he blows up or gets to the open market. There's a lot of worst deals you could do than re-signing Wall.

[tontoz]

A 22 yr old PG with a world of potential that's still an unfinished product...

I don't think $10/11 mil is unreasonable. Does he deserve it at this moment, no. But it's a calculated risk because if you wait, you may end up paying a lot more if he blows up or gets to the open market. There's a lot of worst deals you could do than re-signing Wall.

Even if he does improve next year he would still be a RFA next summer and there are many teams out there that are already set at pg.

I don't see much risk in waiting. I see a lot of risk in paying star money to a guy who is currently a very flawed player and hasn't improved over his rookie year.

[Dat2U]

I don't see a ton of risk in waiting, but honestly I don't see a ton of risk in offering a modest extension for 4 years in the $40-45 million range to a recent #1 pick. I think even if he only marginally improves (i.e lowers his TO rate) he maintain solid trade value throughout the length of the deal.

Basically what I'm saying is you could do a lot worse.

[jivelikenice]

^There is no risk in offering an extension now. If he takes it, great....If he doesn't, then lets see what he can do in a contract year which should obviously motiviate him but also would put pressure on him too.

Maybe then we can also see what he looks like with a normal offseason/full TC assuming he doesn't get hurt again.

[tontoz]

Yes there is risk in signing him now. With the current CBA the worst thing you can do is sign average/below average players to big, long term deals.

If Wall was picked 12th nobody would be talking about paying him 10+ million per year.

[Dat2U]

What's the going rate going to be for Brandon Jennings?

[DCZards]

I also don't see much of a downside in offering John an extension this summer, especially if it's a reasonable one at $8-$10 mil. Even a "flawed" Wall is probably worth that much. By not at least offering Wall an extension you are basically telling a player who has the potential to be a cornerstone of your team that you don't really believe he has the ability to get a lot better. I think that would be a mistake.

[nate33]

I also don't see much of a downside in offering John an extension this summer, especially if it's a reasonable one at $8-$10 mil. Even a "flawed" Wall is probably worth that much. By not at least offering Wall an extension you are basically telling a player who has the potential to be a cornerstone of your team that you don't really believe he has the ability to get a lot better. I think that would be a mistake.

I don't think anybody is opposed to extending an $8-9M offer. I'm just 100% certain that Wall would decline so it doesn't really matter much either way, other than any psychological boost Wall might get for feeling "wanted".

Basically, this whole debate is pointless. We can argue til we're blue in the face about what size contract we would feel comfortable extending. Some might say no more than $8M a year, some might say $11M. But in either case, Wall would say no. Basically, any number Wall would agree to right now is going to be a number far too high for it to make sense for us to take on the risk.

[DCZards]

I don't think anybody is opposed to extending an $8-9M offer. I'm just 100% certain that Wall would decline so it doesn't really matter much either way, other than any psychological boost Wall might get for feeling "wanted".

Nothing wrong with giving Wall a "psychological boost" or making him feel wanted. I think it would be a smart thing to do.

[sfam]

I wouldn't offer Wall an extension. He needs to go out and earn it. Worst comes to worst he has a "contract year" and we end up overpaying a bit, but I'd rather do that and know what we have then give him $10+ Mil a year and five years from now he still can't hit a jump shot.

There's a reason players do better in their contract years - they simply work harder at their game. We want more than anything for Wall to work harder at his game and improve. To me, this is worth the extra cost of having a dramatically improved Wall. This is in our interest to pay Wall closer to Max money, if he proves he's worth it.

So no, even if he would sign an extension, I don't think its in our interest to offer it. Its fare more in our interest for Wall to significantly improve than to get him on a cheap extension. Totally agree we should wait to see how Wall does in his contract year. The risk (paying more) is totally worth it.