Denver is a contender?

[mcmurphy]

In my opinion YES!

Why?

When Denver defends good the 3P-line and controls the turnovers becomes a very, very difficult team to beat.

In the games where:

1) 3P%_opposing < 43%

AND

2) TO_nugg - TO_opp < 5 (not more of four TO of the opposing team)

two conditions not very tight, the Nuggets record is

Record 32 - 3

HOME 21-1
ROAD 11-2

Playoff teams with the highest differential TO rate are:

NY -3.4
MEM -1.94
LAC -1.92
MIA -1.08
BOS -0.77
DEN -0.20
SAS 0.07
OKC 0.72

and the 3P% of these teams are in decreasing order

OKC 39.2
MIA 38.6
SAS 38.5
NY 38.1
LAC 35.0
MEM 34.3
BOS 33.9
DEN 33.8

Based on these statistics maybe the most difficult teams to face for Denver are NY and MIA (both east teams).

So a HEALTHY Nuggets team could be a nba champ contender imho.

What do you think?

[TwentyOne920]

No, they're a pretender because they're iffy on the road.

[Bee-Fense]

I think you mean "contender" and not "pretender"

but two very interesting points. I think they can make it to the 2nd round, but I don't think they can beat OKC. Regardless, they won't be an easy series for any team.

[TwentyOne920]

I think you mean "contender" and not "pretender"

but two very interesting points. I think they can make it to the 2nd round, but I don't think they can beat OKC. Regardless, they won't be an easy series for any team.

Don't see them beating SA/OKC in a series unless the Nuggets had HCA.

[darkangle901]

Nope. Marc Gasol is gonna teach Javale McGee how to play Center in the 1st round.

[TwentyOne920]

Nope. Marc Gasol is gonna teach Javale McGee how to play Center in the 1st round.

Denver is up 2-1 in the season series with one of the wins in Memphis, tbh.

And it's not as if McGee's the only center on the squad. Koufos has been having a solid year. Mozgov is a serviceable big body.

[irie]

Still missing that big piece to put them to contender level, definitely. A really solid team but they aren't there yet.

[co_laper]

Op is saying that Denver is a pretender, yet give out informations that claims otherwise. I think you misunderstood what pretender means.

Anyways, yeah Denver is a pretender. They're not a contender, but they're good enough to be more than just a pushover.

[abark]

Yeah, I agree with the thread's premise, but it seems like the OP doesn't. Sorry if English isn't your first language, but is there a joke I'm not getting.

[Dtown84]

Op is saying that Denver is a pretender, yet give out informations that claims otherwise. I think you misunderstood what pretender means.

Anyways, yeah Denver is a pretender. They're not a contender, but they're good enough to be more than just a pushover.

I think op means they are a 'pretender' instead of an 'also ran', in other words an improvement. At least that's how I took it.

[eslr]

Yeah, Denver really has no chance against the elite teams without homecourt advantage. I think they can get by Memphis even without it (though they would be favorites with homecourt advantage), but no chance in the 2nd round.

[mcmurphy]

No, they're a pretender because they're iffy on the road.

11-2 on the road when defending well the 3P-line and pay attention to turnovers

I think you mean "contender" and not "pretender"

but two very interesting points. I think they can make it to the 2nd round, but I don't think they can beat OKC. Regardless, they won't be an easy series for any team.

yes, contender... sorry I used the wrong word... I'm italian... "contendente" e "pretendente" in italian are synonyms

Nope. Marc Gasol is gonna teach Javale McGee how to play Center in the 1st round.

Denver is up 2-1 in the season series with one of the wins in Memphis, tbh.

And it's not as if McGee's the only center on the squad. Koufos has been having a solid year. Mozgov is a serviceable big body.

exactly

Still missing that big piece to put them to contender level, definitely. A really solid team but they aren't there yet.

if only denver was a 80% FT team as OKC would be the best team of nba

[eslr]

Nope. Marc Gasol is gonna teach Javale McGee how to play Center in the 1st round.

He must be saving it for the playoffs then. His 11/8 on 38% from the field in the season series isn't scaring anyone. Javale by comparison is 12/8 on 55% in just 21 mpg. And Koufos is 7.5/7.5 on 60% in 25 mpg.

Zach Randolph hasn't fared much better. The Nuggets frontcourt has really had the Grizz frouncourt for lunch in their meeting so far, and that spells trouble for the Grizz as that is where most of their production comes from.

Really the two Grizzlies players that hurt Denver this year were Marreese Speights and Rudy Gay.

[branny]

Mmm possibly.. I think they can go deep this year but I wouldn't put much money on them

[bigfnjoe96]

Denver is a contender. They definitely can make it to WCF. Right now they r playing real good basketball, yes they are not great on the road, but all you have to do is steal 1 on the road

[SweetTouch]

They have such a great coach

And great group of players, they won the trade

[Prospect Dong]

3 point defence and turnover differential are two key parts of being a good basketball team, so it doesn't mean much that, conditional on them doing those two things well in a given game, they have a very good record, unless you have some reason to think they can do those things better than they have been one they get to the playoffs.

It is fair to say that opp 3p% and turnover differential are relatively high variance, so perhaps you could hope that Denver have a chance at beating better teams if they get lucky, but I'd be interested to see whether the Nuggets improvement in games where they limit turnovers and outside shooting is unusual among top teams. What's the grizzlies' record under these same conditions, for instance? Or the Clippers'?

[jowglenn]

I think Denver is a great dark horse team, and in fact, I picked them before the season started as my "dark horse" contender.

I'm not sure I'd bet any money on them, as I think their outside shooting is really really iffy and inconsistent, and they don't have anybody who they can post up down low when things get tight, but I think they have right combination of guys who can just go off for crazy games that it could happen.

[tsherkin]

They're on pace for around 53 wins and they're a brilliant offense with average defense. That doesn't strike me as a great contender, I think they'll get punked in the playoffs, but it'd likely be a little later on. They're set up right at the moment to take the 5th seed and a first round matchup with Memphis, which won't be easy. Their MOV in the 3 games they've played against the Grizz (2-1) is +0.3. A brief look at how all of that happened does suggest a close series, though a potentially winnable one.

Lots of intriguing talent on the Nuggets, but no one that really stands out as the kind of star to drive them to a title. Wouldn't be surprised to see them in the second round, getting pounded by the Spurs, though (provided San Antonio avoids Upset City, which they've visited twice in the first round of the last four years).

Denver's good, and should make for an intriguing spoiler, but they don't seem to have the traits of a legitimate title contender just yet. They're like one player away. Maybe a really good combo guard off of the bench, like a Jamal Crawford simulacrum, or if JaVale McGee quit being stupid or if Iguodala took the next step as a scoring threat or something like that. More likely, the McGee thing because their offense is mostly fine, but they need to improve their D. Most title contenders are a top 10 defense. Most, anyway.

[COY0607]

denver is what memphis had been the last couple of years... probably the most terrifying team for OKC/Spurs .. to me one of only 3 teams that that can make the WCF