Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[payitforward]

$11 million per season isn't reduced enough to extend Wall this offseason instead of waiting. It could end up being a relative bargain, but it's at least as likely he'll end up not being worth that much. If he abruptly breaks out and has an MVP type season, I'd have no problem paying him the max. But, I wouldn't want to get stuck paying $11 million per year to an average player.

I'll say not! He's not worth nearly that much money.

Almost no worse mistake than locking in a player longterm & at high dollars who hasn't proved he's the real deal. May I remind you of Andre Blatche? Wasn't that the thinking in his case too? How'd that work out?

John Wall hasn't shown that he's a reliable starter in this league, let alone a consistently better than average NBA point guard. He wasn't good as a rookie, he wasn't good last year, and he isn't good this year. Why am I supposed to think he'll be good next year?

[payitforward]

A 4-year, $44M contract would start at $9.9M with 7.5% raises. Wall's qualifying offer is $9.7M. I don't see any way whatsoever that Wall agrees to a 4-year, $44M extension when he could just as easily take the qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent in 2015 (and potentially play himself into a max contract).

Discussion about extending Wall to anything less than a max or near-max offer are just a waste of time. Wall won't accept it. Our only realistic course of action is to wait until 2014 and match the best offer out there.

"and potentially play himself into a max contract" -- and potentially play himself into a much lower contract as well.

TBH, I don't want to extend him next year at any price. I don't see any reason to think he's worth a lot of money. And I don't think he'd be hard to replace either. There's a long list of point guards who play better than John Wall and make a whole lot less than people here want to wave in his face.

[DCZards]

"and potentially play himself into a max contract" -- and potentially play himself into a much lower contract as well.

TBH, I don't want to extend him next year at any price. I don't see any reason to think he's worth a lot of money. And I don't think he'd be hard to replace either. There's a long list of point guards who play better than John Wall and make a whole lot less than people here want to wave in his face.

pif, I'd be interested in knowing who is on that long list of PGs who are both better than Wall and available to be signed by the Zards.

[jivelikenice]

The discussion is pointless. I've never seen such a lack of patience and a rush to judgement on a player. Career average of 16/8/4 and he's garbage. I wonder what he would have to do to please the naysayers. What kind of stat line would make you all happy because I've read criticisms of him after all types of games. If he scores, he's selfish...if he passes, he's passive....if we win, it's inspite of him, even though we had FIVE wins in 2+ months before he came back (for the record I don't give him all credit, but he deserves a fair share).

Is it just a dislike of the guy? Gil hangover?- I hope it isnt this. I've heard of the pressure surrounding following a legend but followingGil shouldn't qualify as such. Does he talk to fast (I've read this). Cause he goes out?


I'm not saying hes perfect, but a 16/8/4 guy isnt trash. He was a late bloomer and was raw coming out and still has a long way to go, but the criticism has reached an absurd level. Respect him or not, he has to be gameplanned by opponents. If a team loses discipline against a Wall run team and the shooters are knocking down corner Js, they're in trouble. Do they gameplay the Kyle Lowrys, the Goran Dragics, or the Isaiah Thomas's of the world? No....don't get me wrong, they're all nice players but you're capped with a player like that. Because of the pressure John's raw abilities put on a defense, him and his team will be a bigger threat. If he puts it all together and refines his game, the upside is that much more.

[Dat2U]

"and potentially play himself into a max contract" -- and potentially play himself into a much lower contract as well.

TBH, I don't want to extend him next year at any price. I don't see any reason to think he's worth a lot of money. And I don't think he'd be hard to replace either. There's a long list of point guards who play better than John Wall and make a whole lot less than people here want to wave in his face.

pif, I'd be interested in knowing who is on that long list of PGs who are both better than Wall and available to be signed by the Zards.

Agreed, I'd love to see this long list.

[montestewart]

There's a huge space between "Wall is absolute garbage, replaceable by any from a long list of readily available point guards" and "Wall deserves a huge, multi-year contract." I haven't given up on Wall being a long term starter, but his shortcomings are still glaring, and the need to consider his contract is making me nervous. He's still an incredible athlete, and his defensive instincts seem to get better every year, but his offensive game seems in some ways to have regressed.

The team is still feeling the effects of the contract extensions/renewals for Arenas, Jamison, and Blatche, carries large contracts for Nene, Okafor, and Ariza, and for all the money they've spent, they have at best a mid-seed playoff team (and certainly not this year). Locking up Wall now could be as bad as or worse than trading for Gay or signing Josh Smith, giving a huge salary, possibly the largest salary on the team, to a player with serious and well known flaws, whose overall effect on the team hovers around average.

If there is to be an "Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 3.0," he needs to get his act together, because at $15 million a year, the current version just won't fly.

[payitforward]

... I've never seen such a lack of patience and a rush to judgement on a player.

Weren't you around for all the folks writing off Bradley Beal 10 games into the season? Weren't you maybe one of them?

Career average of 16/8/4 and he's garbage. I wonder what he would have to do to please the naysayers. What kind of stat line would make you all happy...

Career average eFG% = 43%. Career average TOs = 4+ per 40 minutes.

I'm not saying hes perfect, but a 16/8/4 guy isnt trash.

Who said he was trash? I said he wasn't worth the amount of money he's likely to ask for (and get) from Ernie.

.... the Kyle Lowrys, the Goran Dragics, or the Isaiah Thomas's of the world... all nice players but you're capped with a player like that.

Lowry and Dragic are as good as they're going to get, that's true -- Thomas might still improve some.

Because of the pressure John's raw abilities put on a defense, him and his team will be a bigger threat. If he puts it all together ... the upside is that much more.

"The pressure of... raw abilities" -- that's what makes a team good? "Raw abilities?" I don't think so.

But your main point is that his *potential* makes him worth building on. I don't think he has as much potential as you think. Not saying he can't become a very good NBA 1. But he isn't one now, and he may not become one. Throwing $$ at that would be a big risk and a big mistake -- as we'll lkely find out when Ted and Ernie do it.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't think it'd be wise to offer an extension simply because - if he believes in himself, he'd turn it down in anticipation of improving to the point where he'd earn significantly more the next year as a UFA. And if he doesn't believe in himself, then you don't really want him.

I think you're over thinking it. Do Steph Curry, Ty Lawson, and Rajon Rondo not believe in themselves for taking less than max money in early extensions? I don't think that's the case.

These are just numbers on a screen to us. But imagine someone offered you a contract of 8 figures a year for four years. There is no way I would turn it down. Even if I thought I could possibly earn a few million more by waiting a year. I'd already be rich beyond my wildest dreams. Nothing in life is certain.

And besides, a hyper competitive athlete at the top of the world inn his level of competition is probably more motivated by obtaining respect and greatness through winning than by the money itself because they know plenty of money will probably come as a result.

[payitforward]

"and potentially play himself into a max contract" -- and potentially play himself into a much lower contract as well.

TBH, I don't want to extend him next year at any price. I don't see any reason to think he's worth a lot of money. And I don't think he'd be hard to replace either. There's a long list of point guards who play better than John Wall and make a whole lot less than people here want to wave in his face.

pif, I'd be interested in knowing who is on that long list of PGs who are both better than Wall and available to be signed by the Zards.

Zards -- we were talking about John Wall's value in re: what he should/will make, right? What I said was that there are lots of NBA point guards who play better than John and cost significantly less than the $$ being "offered" here.

Are you really disagreeing w/ that?

[payitforward]

I don't think it'd be wise to offer an extension simply because - if he believes in himself, he'd turn it down in anticipation of improving to the point where he'd earn significantly more the next year as a UFA. And if he doesn't believe in himself, then you don't really want him.

I think you're over thinking it. Do Steph Curry, Ty Lawson, and Rajon Rondo not believe in themselves for taking less than max money in early extensions? I don't think that's the case.

These are just numbers on a screen to us. But imagine someone offered you a contract of 8 figures a year for four years. There is no way I would turn it down. Even if I thought I could possibly earn a few million more by waiting a year. I'd already be rich beyond my wildest dreams. Nothing in life is certain.

And besides, a hyper competitive athlete at the top of the world inn his level of competition is probably more motivated by obtaining respect and greatness through winning than by the money itself because they know plenty of money will probably come as a result.

Good points.... Not to mention "the present value of money" -- an extra $5m now is worth more than an extra $5m next year. In short, it'd be a business decision not an emotional decision.

[Ruzious]

I don't think it'd be wise to offer an extension simply because - if he believes in himself, he'd turn it down in anticipation of improving to the point where he'd earn significantly more the next year as a UFA. And if he doesn't believe in himself, then you don't really want him.

I think you're over thinking it. Do Steph Curry, Ty Lawson, and Rajon Rondo not believe in themselves for taking less than max money in early extensions? I don't think that's the case.

These are just numbers on a screen to us. But imagine someone offered you a contract of 8 figures a year for four years. There is no way I would turn it down. Even if I thought I could possibly earn a few million more by waiting a year. I'd already be rich beyond my wildest dreams. Nothing in life is certain.

And besides, a hyper competitive athlete at the top of the world inn his level of competition is probably more motivated by obtaining respect and greatness through winning than by the money itself because they know plenty of money will probably come as a result.

Overthinking isn't something I usually get accused of. You make good points, but it's different when he was the consensus 1st pick in the draft - he's coming from a different point of reference. Taking an extension for far less than the max comes across as not meeting expectations and not believing you deserve that status as a #1 #1..

[DCZards]

Zards -- we were talking about John Wall's value in re: what he should/will make, right? What I said was that there are lots of NBA point guards who play better than John and cost significantly less than the $$ being "offered" here.

Are you really disagreeing w/ that?

Not disagreeing that there are point guards playing better than John who are making less. But the question is whether they would cost significantly less than John if they were on the market and available for the Zards to sign. I can't think of a long list of quality young PGs who meet that criteria...maybe you can.

[sfam]

Overthinking isn't something I usually get accused of. You make good points, but it's different when he was the consensus 1st pick in the draft - he's coming from a different point of reference. Taking an extension for far less than the max comes across as not meeting expectations and not believing you deserve that status as a #1 #1..

So John Wall still thinks he's the "The Best of the Best of the Best...Sir!" dude?

I'm still thinkin John Wall can be our Will Smith. But I agree we should wait on giving him an extension. Let him run down that cephalopod on foot first before we give him a max MIB contract.

[DCZards]

Overthinking isn't something I usually get accused of. You make good points, but it's different when he was the consensus 1st pick in the draft - he's coming from a different point of reference. Taking an extension for far less than the max comes across as not meeting expectations and not believing you deserve that status as a #1 #1..

Man, ruz, you've gone from over thinking to thinking for John.

Folks here are far too hung up on where Wall was drafted and the belief that he will only accept a max contract.

[jivelikenice]

... I've never seen such a lack of patience and a rush to judgement on a player.

Weren't you around for all the folks writing off Bradley Beal 10 games into the season? Weren't you maybe one of them?

I had concerns about Beal pre-draft. I was pleasantly surprised by his SL play but my concerns came to fruition early on with his inability to knock down open looks, get his shot off, and create off the dribble. I thought he would take longer to develop but at no point did I give up on him or want to trade him when he struggled early on. I was disappointed, but thought it was ridiculous that ppl wanted to move him for a lotto pick next yr. I am THRILLED that he proved me wrong. I still think its comical that inspite of Beal's surge in his play, ppl are ready to proclaim that while he's good, he can't be Harden good. Its too early to make any proclomation on what his career will end up like.

[sfam]

... I've never seen such a lack of patience and a rush to judgement on a player.

Weren't you around for all the folks writing off Bradley Beal 10 games into the season? Weren't you maybe one of them?

I had concerns about Beal pre-draft. I was pleasantly surprised by his SL play but my concerns came to fruition early on with his inability to knock down open looks, get his shot off, and create off the dribble. I thought he would take longer to develop but at no point did I give up on him or want to trade him when he struggled early on. I was disappointed, but thought it was ridiculous that ppl wanted to move him for a lotto pick next yr. I am THRILLED that he proved me wrong. I still think its comical that inspite of Beal's surge in his play, ppl are ready to proclaim that while he's good, he can't be Harden good. Its too early to make any proclomation on what his career will end up like.

We can apply the same phrase to John Wall.

[hands11]

I don't think it'd be wise to offer an extension simply because - if he believes in himself, he'd turn it down in anticipation of improving to the point where he'd earn significantly more the next year as a UFA. And if he doesn't believe in himself, then you don't really want him.

I think you're over thinking it. Do Steph Curry, Ty Lawson, and Rajon Rondo not believe in themselves for taking less than max money in early extensions? I don't think that's the case.

These are just numbers on a screen to us. But imagine someone offered you a contract of 8 figures a year for four years. There is no way I would turn it down. Even if I thought I could possibly earn a few million more by waiting a year. I'd already be rich beyond my wildest dreams. Nothing in life is certain.

And besides, a hyper competitive athlete at the top of the world inn his level of competition is probably more motivated by obtaining respect and greatness through winning than by the money itself because they know plenty of money will probably come as a result.

Overthinking isn't something I usually get accused of. You make good points, but it's different when he was the consensus 1st pick in the draft - he's coming from a different point of reference. Taking an extension for far less than the max comes across as not meeting expectations and not believing you deserve that status as a #1 #1..

That why I said I think it would be easier for him to except that money from another team, then to except it here.

This is just going to be a dicey issue until it gets resolved. I felt the same way leading up to the Gil contract. I know we would get burned resigning him. Lets hope we do better this time around.

We are quickly approaching the point that really concerned people about the nature of this rebuild. It could still go either way. They could smoothly grow this and transition, or it could all go very wrong. Who we draft. Who we sign and for how much. And while the Trevor A and Okafor deal has produced great results, so its looking like a sound move by Ted/EG, I don't think anyone has 80-90% confidence that they will continue to get this right. The Crawford deal didn't look like it was handed well. They got nothing for Dray. But they did find Webser and did land Beal. So there is some good. Some bad.

Scary times.

But I have seen a vast sift by the board. There was a time not long go that not many here saw any path for growing this team with Trevor A, Okafor and Nene. The view was all those contracts killed any path forward. Now I see a lot more posts showing ways to move forward. Some even keep some or all of those players around 1-3 more years.

Personally, I am more worried about how things work out or not with Wall then I am Nene, Trevor A and Okafor. I know what those players can do and what they will most likely cost.

[hands11]

Zards -- we were talking about John Wall's value in re: what he should/will make, right? What I said was that there are lots of NBA point guards who play better than John and cost significantly less than the $$ being "offered" here.

Are you really disagreeing w/ that?

Not disagreeing that there are point guards playing better than John who are making less. But the question is whether they would cost significantly less than John if they were on the market and available for the Zards to sign. I can't think of a long list of quality young PGs who meet that criteria...maybe you can.

Here is the question.

How often does a team win a title with the PG being the best and most expensive player on the team.
How often does that happen with a PG that can't shoot from outside.

I am well documented as not liking PG as best player approach so I hated the Gil extension.

http://www.nba.com/history/finals/champions.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NBA_champions

Now, I'm not one of the people that says it Championship or bust. Most teams don't win it all. I would be happy to have to team that can make it to the 2nd round and win so I get to watch some Conference title games, quality wins all year and first round playoff wins on a yearly basis.

Winning it all is largely dependent on you getting lucky enough to get one of a very small group of NBA MVP level talents. Dirk, Tim D, Shaq, Kobe or an amazing big 3 like RA, PP, KG. So unless you are one of those markets these players will go to, you have to be really really lucky to have a top pick in a draft where you can get one of these players. And if you are that bad to get one in that lucky year, its not that often that crap team can then turn things around quick enough to put talent around that player to win it all before they move on to one of those better market teams. See LeBron, KG, Shaq, etc. MJ to Chicago doesn't happen that often. OKC has done well. They should compete for a while. We will see if they can win it all though.

[hands11]

For now, the younger players in this class of players looks like KD, Westbrook, LeBron, Melo, and maybe Harden. That is why when I saw Melo coming free, I said we would want to target him. I remember some objected with that view. Could we get him. Not likely but thats beside the point of wanting him. Harden fit and it why people here were upset, but I think Beal will be that good as well and he is cheaper.

Anyway, back to the question about PGs. Durrant is the best player on OKC and Westbrook isn't really a PG as much as a hybrid PG/Score first SG.

Miami won it all without a great PG
LA same
Mavs - same Kidd was older
SA - Parker is really good but that team is about TD, great system, coach and others. But Parker is good

With just those teams, you get you back to 1999

See, quality PG play is great to have, but it much more likely you are going to win deep in the playoffs by having top notch amazing players at SG/SF (MJ, Kobe, Wade), PF/C (Duncan/Dream, Dirk, KG), SF (Lebron PP),
C (Shaq)

I would never pay a PG max the way Chicago paid D Rose for the length they did.

The Wizards can clearly get to the playoff with what they are doing, but its about Nene and Beal being the best players more then Wall. If they are going to be great, its going to be because Beal becomes amazingly good and Nene comes back healthy and plays at the top of his game next year. Longer term, they need to add a Nene level PF replacement and a SF as good as Trevor A/Webster combined into one player.

Focusing on Wall or any PG as being anything more then the 2nd or 3rd level best player is not as successful a model as going for SG, SG/SF, SF, SF/PF, PF/Cs.

I would not give Wall max. I wouldn't even focus on him being my franchise player. I think I would lean toward trading him for max assets to clear the way for Beal and Nene while keeping my eye open to add a player like PP for a couple years.

PG/PG
Beal/Webster
PP/Trevor A
Nene/
Okafor/

Add the right PGs and back ups at PF/C and that team could make a legit run at things.

[nate33]

I posted this on the Trade Thread but I think it really belongs here where we have been discussing the future contract of John Wall:

And he might be only 22 yrs old working his way back off of injury. This panic regarding what type of contract he'll command is absolutely silliness. If he continues to regress, then that's the least of our concerns. If he rights things and really begins playing well, then well have a choice to make. It's like people want to make an issue were one really doesn't exist.

It's not "panic". It's merely a consideration when assessing Wall's value as a player on this team in the future, versus his value as a trade asset. The contractual history of under-performing #1 #1 picks isn't pretty. Here are the dollar values for the second contracts given to disappointing #1 #1 picks over the past 15 years:

2006 draft - Bargnani - 5 years $50M - currently acknowledged as one of the worst contracts in the league
2005 draft - Bogut - 5 years $60M - has been an albatross contract for 2 years because he can't stay healthy
2001 draft - Kwame - 3 years $28M - played about 700 minutes a season and posted a PER of 10
2000 draft - KMart - 6 years $92M - a max contract for average production, PER around 15
1998 draft - Olowokandi - 3 years $16M - a backup, posting a PER around 10

Basically, all of these guys ended up overpaid.

Of these players, I'd say Bargnani is the closest analogy to Wall. Like Wall, Bargnani was thrust into a role as savior of a bad franchise and received all the minutes he could handle. He produced decent counting numbers but with minimal efficiency and was never considered a winning type of player. Nevertheless, Toronto fans and management faithfully believed that the "break out" was right around the corner. It never happened, and he ended up grossly overpaid.

In a best case scenario, we get another KMart situation. Kmart panned out to be a quality starter and handled his role well. Unfortunately, he was paid like a superstar. That's not an awful scenario. Denver managed to be very productive during that time frame. But one wonders what Denver could have done had they not spent the money (and picks) that it took to acquire him. During his tenure in Denver, I'm sure they would have gladly traded KMart for a high lotto pick and cap relief (which would be what we would be looking for if we trade Wall now).

I don't think the Kwame/Olowokandi analogies hold because everyone knew by the time their rookie contracts were up that that they were busts (and yet they still got paid). I don't think that will be the case with Wall. There's no way he ends up signing a contract in the $6-8M per year range.

(Note, the other #1 #1's were true max players who's second contracts were bargains: Howard, James, Ming, Brand, Duncan, Iverson.)