Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[mhd]

Great tanking loss tonight. Perhaps we should play Vesley more

[hands11]

nate, this is the type of thinking that led to Oden being drafted over Durant. You can win without a quality big if you have ridiculous wing talent (see MIA last year). They probably have the worst starting C in the league.
I still take Noel first in this draft. But if theres a better player, you take him.

Not a fair analogy. First, it was clear that Durant was a special talent with uberstar potential. It was a real dilemma whether to pick him or Oden. And frankly, if Oden had stayed healthy, it might still be a dilemma. Oden could have been the next Dwight Howard.

Clearly, we're not faced with that type of decision in this draft. There is nobody close to Durant's potential. Porter looks like he might be the next Batum, or in a best case scenario, the next Paul Pierce. You take the next Noah over the next Batum every day of the week. Heck, you take the next Noah over the next Pierce too.

PP was the MVP of a title team.

Besides, I didn't say you never take a big.

[hands11]

Great tanking loss tonight. Perhaps we should play Vesley more

Not needed. Just let Randy coach without all his starters.

[Silvie Lysandra]

PP was the MVP of a title team.

Besides, I didn't say you never take a big.

PP wasn't even close to the best player on that team. Kevin Garnett was CLEARLY, CLEARLY the best player on that team, and it wasn't even close. KG was the defensive anchor of that team, led the team in scoring in the playoffs, led the team in usage, etc.

Right now, the most recent title winner that didn't have an All-Star level big is Jordan's Bulls. And even then, they had Rodman during the 2nd 3 peat, and then Horace Grant during the first.

[stevemcqueen1]

Here's another interesting point:

- drafting a great 5 is about the surest ticket to a championship there is.

Platitude 1: the top two to three guys in the league regardless of position almost always seem to win championships. And from the 80s up until 2004, you almost always needed to have one of those guys to win one in the dynasty era.

Platitude 2: having one of the top two to three centers in the league was also practically a foolproof way to get a ring throughout the entire history of the league spanning back to 1949. (well not today, because there aren't two or three perennial AS centers currently in the NBA).

If you look at all of the 5s in the HoF, I think there are only three--three!--that never won championships. Pat Ewing, Artis Gilmore, and Nate Thurmond. Gilmore did win an ABA championship.

If Dwight gets back to the player he was in 2009 and 2010, he's going to get a ring eventually.

[AFM]

do NOT accuse me of strawmen arguments, nate. You KNOW I'm afraid of scarecrows!!!!!

[stevemcqueen1]

Also I think this is the first time in league history that there isn't more than one perennial AS center in the league and there might not be any HoF centers in their prime.

IMO this is because too many big men are coming up with the mindset of wanting to either be the next Blake--face up and drive like a perimeter player--or the next Dirk or Love--face up and jump shoot like a perimeter player. It's whittled down the list of guys coming up with the classic 5 man skill set. Typically, big guys would much rather be forwards than centers now.

The team that gets the next HoF bound C is going to have a huge advantage over the rest of the league.

[hands11]

PP was the MVP of a title team.

Besides, I didn't say you never take a big.

PP wasn't even close to the best player on that team. Kevin Garnett was CLEARLY, CLEARLY the best player on that team, and it wasn't even close. KG was the defensive anchor of that team, led the team in scoring in the playoffs, led the team in usage, etc.

Right now, the most recent title winner that didn't have an All-Star level big is Jordan's Bulls. And even then, they had Rodman during the 2nd 3 peat, and then Horace Grant during the first.

First, I wasn't posting an opinion about PP, It was a fact. He was the MVP of a title team.

http://www.nba.com/history/finals/champions.html

As for your Chicago comment, that team was MJ. Without him, we are not talking about Chicago.

2nd, you are arguing with yourself if your focusing on the need for a good big man. I know my original post was a little long, but the focus of it was not that you don't need a big. It was about when you pick and who you get, building a team, positions of important, what you pay them, and how you get them. I did talk about pure centers, but I never said you don't need a big man. Obviously have KG and Duncan help. I said that. I also mentioned Dirk and Shaq.

So is there a KG, Duncan, Dirk or Shaq in this draft ?

[hands11]

Here's another interesting point:

- drafting a great 5 is about the surest ticket to a championship there is.

Platitude 1: the top two to three guys in the league regardless of position almost always seem to win championships. And from the 80s up until 2004, you almost always needed to have one of those guys to win one in the dynasty era.

Platitude 2: having one of the top two to three centers in the league was also practically a foolproof way to get a ring throughout the entire history of the league spanning back to 1949. (well not today, because there aren't two or three perennial AS centers currently in the NBA).

If you look at all of the 5s in the HoF, I think there are only three--three!--that never won championships. Pat Ewing, Artis Gilmore, and Nate Thurmond. Gilmore did win an ABA championship.

If Dwight gets back to the player he was in 2009 and 2010, he's going to get a ring eventually.

That is more in line with what I was saying. And the game has changed.

Point is, you need a top go to scorer/player. Right now, for the Wizards, Beal is our best hope of being that player.

For now, the league is dominated by players like LeBron, KD, Melo, Kobe, and probably Harden as those players. In recent history you would have Wade and Dirk on that list.

Its great help to have a really good player at any position. Hell, there are only 5 players out there in a starting line up so you need good players. No one player is going to win it all by themselves. Though Dirk won a title with a less that top notch supporting case. Pretty amazing job by Dirk.
But what do you need to be a top 3 team.

LA had Kobe and Shaq but after that, it was Kobe that made that team a top team. Miami had LeBron, Wade and Bosh but its LeBron that got them a title. Celtics RA, PP & KG but its PP that won MVP of the title year.

So BB better become a Harden or else, as much as I like Beal, we probably should have grabbed Harden. So right now, all my hopes for the Wizards ride on Beal.

So those are the players you want. We are entering the age of LeBron, Melo, Durant and probably Harden.
Players like Wade, PP, Duncan, Dirk, Kobe, KG. They are all getting long in the tooth.

So if you want to be a top team, either Beal had to become amazing, we need to find a way to get one of those young prime players - LeBron, KD, Melo, Durant, Harden or we need to draft one.

If not, you are just building a better team but you won't contend.

That said, I would really target getting Greg Monroe if I could. He will be the big for a title team one day. Can Noel or any of the other bigs be as good as him ? DET has a really nice post core in Monroe and Drummond. If they add the right SG, SG/SF, SF, they will be growing something legit. They are going to have a lot of cap space in 2013/14.

2014/15 is the year to target. That is the year LeBron, Melo, Monroe are available. If DET can get LeBron or Melo, they become a top team instantly. Keep you eye on the price.

In the mean time, I would go after PP if I could get him. Beal needs help. PP is getting older but he is still at top SF in the league. And of course you get Paul George if you can.

[hands11]

Also I think this is the first time in league history that there isn't more than one perennial AS center in the league and there might not be any HoF centers in their prime.

IMO this is because too many big men are coming up with the mindset of wanting to either be the next Blake--face up and drive like a perimeter player--or the next Dirk or Love--face up and jump shoot like a perimeter player. It's whittled down the list of guys coming up with the classic 5 man skill set. Typically, big guys would much rather be forwards than centers now.

The team that gets the next HoF bound C is going to have a huge advantage over the rest of the league.

I think Monroe is going to be that next AS C/PF. He has the skills, mind set, personality, size, etc to do it.

[nate33]

2nd, you are arguing with yourself if your focusing on the need for a good big man. I know my original post was a little long, but the focus of it was not that you don't need a big. It was about when you pick and who you get, building a team, positions of important, what you pay them, and how you get them. I did talk about pure centers, but I never said you don't need a big man. Obviously have KG and Duncan help. I said that. I also mentioned Dirk and Shaq.

So is there a KG, Duncan, Dirk or Shaq in this draft ?

Hands, it's pretty maddening to have a discussion with you when you can't even own up to the things you wrote the day before. Clearly, the gist of your post was that good big men aren't as important as good wings, and with that being your theory, you wouldn't not place much value on Noel. If that wasn't the point, then your post had no point at all.

In today game, I don't see the best teams with the centers as their best player. Certainly not young centers. You need a good defensive center first and for most part there are not many Shaq teams out there.

Great talent at SG, SF is more important and its gotta be a player that has a real feel for the game. Good handles. Great shot. Great D. PF is important also. Just look at the Wizard. Beal and Nene are what stabilize the team.

I honestly don't know enough about Noel to know his upside. Can he be elite top 3 in the league, if not, I wouldn't take him top 3.

If I have a top 3 pick, I'm going with Otto or Victor O. Victor O has the high ceiling and Otto has the low bust potential. 6-8 SF that plays team ball and can do it all. He will keep value and should get better year after year as he learns and gets stronger. Burke would be my 3rd choice as a top pick but in the 5-6 range but I would trade Wall in doing it and get another top pick.

I don't think I would use my first top 4 on Noel or Len. I think they both be good but I think the Wizard still need core stars and center isn't often that position any more in the NBA.

[tontoz]

Nate, don't loose you're cool.

[closg00]

Time to return to the hard-tank mentality with Beal out. We need talent, talent, talent that can succeed given our "player development" history.

[pancakes3]

I'd say there's a bigger problem with talent evaluation than talent development

[stevemcqueen1]

The game has changed Hands. Defensive 3 seconds and the elimination of hand checking spaced out the floor and put more 3 ball shooting forwards on the court. But the main reason SFs probably seem super valuable now is because three of the best players in the league are SFs. But before the heyday of LeBron, Durant, and Carmelo was the heyday of the PF with Dirk, KG, and Duncan among others. And before them there was the heyday of the C with Ewing, Robinson, Hakeem, and Diesel. The great players of any area tend to shape what we think can/should be done on a basketball court.

But there are certain things about the game that will never change. Such as it's always good to be seven feet and talented. Just like it's always good to be able to run fast and jump high.

Bigs will always have a disproportionate impact on a game that relies so heavily on height. Bigs have a disproportionate impact on scoring efficiency on both ends of the court at every level. Bigs cover the most critical space on the court on both ends. They typically end possessions more than any other position. And Bigs that can operate and defend lots of space like Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel are first overall picks.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'd say there's a bigger problem with talent evaluation than talent development

For us? I'd say development is our biggest issue. We're not even attempting to seriously develop anyone aside from Wall and Beal right now. One bad game gets you buried on the bench for a month for Randy.

I think you can go back and look at the prospects we've taken and they've matched the general consensus of where those guys deserved to go. Wall, Vesely, and Beal each did. Unfortunately for Ves, he didn't have NBA ready skills to justify getting minutes early in his career like Wall and Beal did.

[nate33]

I'd say there's a bigger problem with talent evaluation than talent development

For us? I'd say development is our biggest issue. We're not even attempting to seriously develop anyone aside from Wall and Beal right now. One bad game gets you buried on the bench for a month for Randy.

I think you can go back and look at the prospects we've taken and they've matched the general consensus of where those guys deserved to go. Wall, Vesely, and Beal each did. Unfortunately for Ves, he didn't have NBA ready skills to justify getting minutes early in his career like Wall and Beal did.

I don't think that's a fair assessment of Randy. I actually like the way he has attempted to rotate our young bigs. He gives them 10-20 consecutive games in the regular rotation to prove themselves. If they don't, he banishes them for a month or so to make room for other players to prove themselves. That's pretty much the only thing he can do on a roster that has 4 developing bigs (Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton) and only about 30 minutes a game to spread between them.

I can't speak to what else is going on behind the scenes. Certainly our results would indicate that we are doing something wrong since none of our youngsters seem to get better. I just don't think you can blame the minutes distribution.

[nate33]

Cleveland and Toronto won last night (as did Minnesota, obviously). Good news for the tank. We are now 2 full wins behind the 4th worst team.

[tontoz]

Cleveland and Toronto won last night (as did Minnesota, obviously). Good news for the tank. We are now 2 full wins behind the 4th worst team.

That NO collapse hurt. LA outscored them in the 4th 33-9.

At least we handled our business. As long as Wall keeps trying to be The Closer we should be in good shape.

[pancakes3]

Sorry but look at our draft history compared to the other teams that were at one point or another laughing stocks in the past decade+ (basically since Kwame Brown). Look at the list of guys that they've drafted that have stuck compared to the Wizards.

Charlotte: Not much better than us. Okafor and felton.
OKC: Durant was a no-brainer but then took Ibaka, Westbrook, and Harden. Nick Collison.
Minny: Tripled up on pgs but still got Love and Pekovic
LAC: Longstanding joke still has Kaman, Eric Gordon, Deandre Jordan, and Bledsoe on their draft resume. Odom/Miles.
Bulls: Chandler. Rose. Deng. Gibson, Noah, Ben Gordon, Hinrich.
Cleveland: outside of LBJ and Irving, Waiters, Tristan Thompson, Gibson, Kapono, Boozer

Who do we have to show? Wall and Beal? The 3rd best player that we've drafted in the past 15 years is... Andray Blatche? Jared Jeffries? The last "good" player that we've drafted was... Richard Hamilton in '99?

You can't just chalk our terribleness to player development any more than you can point to a tanking company and say that they lack personnel development. It's basketball. If someone who wants to play in the best league in the world has to be TAUGHT basketball, then something is amiss.