Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lopez is biracial, his father is black. Cross him off the list, too, nate.

So, I guess only non-American whites have a shot. Dirk, the Gasol brothers Pau and Marc, Bogut (Croatian by way of Australia), Nash (not a top-10 pick, Canadian), Kirilenko, Ginobili, Calderon, Dragic …

JJ Redick, Kirk Hinrich, Luke Ridnour, Kyle Korver, Matt Bonner must all be either black or foreign.

[nuposse04]

David Lee is white, and fairly good. He has an above average wingspan though.

[nate33]

Updated:

Let's be honest, avoiding white Americans has been a pretty good draft strategy over the past 2 decades. Here's a list of the white Americans drafted in the top 10 in the past 20 years:

1993 - Shawn Bradley (#2), Bobby Hurley (#7)
1994 - Eric Montross (#9)
1995 - Bryant Reeves (#5)
1997 - Keith Van Horn (#2)
1998 - Raef LaFrentz (#3), Jason Williams (#7)
1999 - Wally Szczerbiak (#6)
2000 - Mike Miller (#5), Chris Mihm (#7), Joel Pryzbilla (#9)
2002 - Mike Dunleavy (#3)
2003 - Chris Kaman (#6), Kirk Hinrich (#7)
2004 - Luke Jackson (#10)
2006 - Adam Morrison (#3)
2007 - Spencer Hawes (#10)
2008 - Kevin Love (#5), Joe Alexander (#8)
2010 - Gordon Hayward (#9)
2011 - Jimmer Fredette (#10)

Not an impressive list. There were 21 white Americans drafted.
9 were busts (Bradley, Hurley, Reeves, Van Horn, LaFrentz, Mihm, Jackson, Morrison, Alexander)
6 were disappointments (Montross, J.Williams, Szczerbiak, Pryzbilla, Dunleavy, Fredette)
5 lived up to expectations (Miller, Kaman, Hinrich, Hawes, Hayward)
and 1 surprised to the upside (Love)

Note, as far as my rankings, I factored draft positions. Number 1 picks should be perennial all stars. Picks in the 2-3 range should be some-time all stars. Picks in the 4-6 range should be rock solid starters for most of their careers. Picks in the 7-10 range should be solid starters for at least a few years.

[nate33]

My list was top 10 picks. I didn't do all American white players.

The point is, don't draft white Americans in the top 10. You can occasionally find white Americans in the draft that are bargains relative to their draft positions like David Lee for instance.

[closg00]

Nate - How could you forget Jan "He a Bust" Vesely from your list?

[stevemcqueen1]

But I do still agree with you on Zeller - except on the occasions when you call him an above the rim player. He has the same type of feel for the game and spacing that Nene has - and at both ends of the floor. And I can see him being equally effective as a PF in the NBA - as he proves and improves his shooting range. It wouldn't surprise me if he eventually develops 3 point shooting range - if he's used more at the PF.

You don't think Zeller plays above the rim? I've seen him posterize people and go up for athletic dunks. He's more than capable of the forceful finish. I think people miss it because his below the rim game is so striking. He's capable of finishing in ways people just haven't seen in a long time out of a big man. Some of his flushes are impressively athletic looking. He's not going to take off from the FT line or anything, but he's actually got really good body control for a 7 footer.

I actually agree with jmrosenth that Zeller being a white American has influenced the way people perceive his athleticism and his draft stock. He's such a total throwback that he actually is original looking in this day and age. If he were black or European, with his feet and his back to the basket game, he'd be perceived as at least be a top three lock. You just never see 20 year old college kids who are legit 7 footers with his combination of agility, intelligence, and post offense any more. I think he's one of the cleanest prospects in the class.

[nate33]

Nate - How could you forget Jan "He a Bust" Vesely from your list?

Not a "white American".

[stevemcqueen1]

I like the Monroe comparison too. I don't think Zeller will ever be the defender that Nene is. Nene has inhumanly quick feet for a guy his size.

I think Zeller is actually noticeably faster and has better body control than Nene. 2012-2013 Nene at least. He's nowhere near as powerful as Nene is though. That's the main difference between the two. Zeller's footwork is the best you'll see from a big man in years.

Zeller also runs the floor as well as any big man in CBB. He even goes coast to coast on occasion.

I made a Nene comparison earlier too, I think it works fairly well. Zeller will obviously have to get a great deal stronger to be able to play like Nene though.

[nate33]

I like the Monroe comparison too. I don't think Zeller will ever be the defender that Nene is. Nene has inhumanly quick feet for a guy his size.

I think Zeller is actually noticeably faster and has better body control than Nene. 2012-2013 Nene at least. He's nowhere near as powerful as Nene is though. That's the main difference between the two. Zeller's footwork is the best you'll see from a big man in years.

Zeller also runs the floor as well as any big man in CBB. He even goes coast to coast on occasion.

I made a Nene comparison earlier too, I think it works fairly well. Zeller will obviously have to get a great deal stronger to be able to play like Nene though.

I'd like to see Zeller have Nene's quick feet AFTER he gains about 40 pounds of muscle.

[closg00]

Nate - How could you forget Jan "He a Bust" Vesely from your list?

Not a "white American".

I missed that, there needs to be a separate list for Euro-Busts: Darko, Vesely, that other 7 footer who busted???, he was a top-10 pick.

[jmrosenth]

White American Starting Five Post-1980. I don't think this list is debatable. Bottom line is that Kevin Love is the only white American who has the chance to be a HOF that's been drafted in what, the last 25 years?

PG: John Stockton
SG: Chris Mullin
SF: Larry Bird
PF: Kevin Love
C: Kevin McHale

[pancakes3]

Chandler Parsons? Mike Miller? I think the moral of the story is only draft white guys from the SEC.

[stevemcqueen1]

I like the Nene comp for Zeller. I don't think Zeller will be an all-star type player, but I could see him being a 15-8/9 guy for a long time, hopefully w/out Nene's injury history.

I'll say it - I do wonder given Zeller's pedigree and skill-set if we'd be talking about him as a no-brainer first overall pick in this draft if his skin color was different.

Well... would 3 added inches have boosted Sullinger up 20 draft spots?

If Sullinger had been a true 7 footer and didn't have back issues, he would have gone way higher.

But it's an apples and oranges comparison with Zeller. Sullinger was huge, probably like 270+. And he was slow and couldn't jump. If he had been as tall and fast and athletic as Zeller, with his skill level and intangibles, he would have been a very high pick. An Andre Drummond who proved he can play. And if Zeller had Sullinger's strength and rebounding ability, he'd be the first overall pick this year.

[Ruzious]

But I do still agree with you on Zeller - except on the occasions when you call him an above the rim player. He has the same type of feel for the game and spacing that Nene has - and at both ends of the floor. And I can see him being equally effective as a PF in the NBA - as he proves and improves his shooting range. It wouldn't surprise me if he eventually develops 3 point shooting range - if he's used more at the PF.

You don't think Zeller plays above the rim? I've seen him posterize people and go up for athletic dunks. He's more than capable of the forceful finish. I think people miss it because his below the rim game is so striking. He's capable of finishing in ways people just haven't seen in a long time out of a big man. Some of his flushes are impressively athletic looking. He's not going to take off from the FT line or anything, but he's actually got really good body control for a 7 footer.

I actually agree with jmrosenth that Zeller being a white American has influenced the way people perceive his athleticism and his draft stock. He's such a total throwback that he actually is original looking in this day and age. If he were black or European, with his feet and his back to the basket game, he'd be perceived as at least be a top three lock. You just never see 20 year old college kids who are legit 7 footers with his combination of agility, intelligence, and post offense any more. I think he's one of the cleanest prospects in the class.

I think he's a very good athlete who does not play above the rim. Almost everyone in the NBA can posterize someone if they get a running start. For me, it's how you finish without a running start that determines if you play above or below the rim - and Zeller gets a lot of those shots rejected. Btw, I think he'll be a more prolific scorer in the NBA than Nene, because Nene tends to be a bit overly unselfish. Zeller can pass, but he'd rather score. With Nene, I think it's often the other way around. If Nene were more selfish througout his career, he'd have made a few all-star games.

[stevemcqueen1]

I like the Monroe comparison too. I don't think Zeller will ever be the defender that Nene is. Nene has inhumanly quick feet for a guy his size.

I think Zeller is actually noticeably faster and has better body control than Nene. 2012-2013 Nene at least. He's nowhere near as powerful as Nene is though. That's the main difference between the two. Zeller's footwork is the best you'll see from a big man in years.

Zeller also runs the floor as well as any big man in CBB. He even goes coast to coast on occasion.

I made a Nene comparison earlier too, I think it works fairly well. Zeller will obviously have to get a great deal stronger to be able to play like Nene though.

I'd like to see Zeller have Nene's quick feet AFTER he gains about 40 pounds of muscle.

Well first he'll have to lose about 20 pounds of softness he's carrying now. He's listed at 240, which is only 15 or 20 lbs less than Nene. He's got a wide waist that I think is carrying some sloppiness if he's actually 240. He clearly has nowhere near the bulk in his legs, arms and chest that Nene does.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Chandler Parsons? Mike Miller? I think the moral of the story is only draft white guys from the SEC.

Okay, so that means yes to Erik Murphy of Florida, but no to Cody Zeller, Mason Plumlee, Jeff Withey, Mike Muscala, Doug McDermott, Jack Cooley, and Nate Wolters.

Kelly Olynyk is Canadian or he'd have no chance if the precedents for being good hold.

Seriously, I'm going to go on a limb: Several players on the list above WILL make NBA teams and a couple of them will be long-time pros: McDermott and Cooley both are going to be surprisingly effective at the next level.

[nate33]

Before my point gets to twisted, I want to reiterate that there are plenty of white Americans that can play. There's just a precious few that should have been drafted in the top 10. Simply by blindly ruling out all white Americans, a GM could have avoided plenty of mistakes in the top 10 over the past few years. There has been one player in the past 20 years who was worthy of a top 5 pick: Kevin Love. Maybe David Lee would have been worth it too. A few were worthy of being picked in the 6-10 range (Hinrich, Miller, Dunleavy, Kaman) but I don't think anybody would be crying in their beer if they missed out on one of those guys.

I'd be leery of Zeller in the top 5. I do think he'll be a solid enough pro to be worthy of a 6-10 pick. But even if he isn't taken then, I don't think it'll be the kind of decision that a franchise regrets for several years.

[nate33]

I think one of the key factors to watch out for is lane agility. David Lee, Kevin Love and Kirk HInrich all had extremely fast lane agility times that may have been an indication that they didn't suffer from the stereotypical lack of athleticism exhibited by most white American basketball players. I'll be watching Zeller's lane agility score.

[hands11]

Just not seeing it. I may be dead wrong but not seeing it.

I have watched him a few times and always walk away thinking, this is not going to translate. At least not at a top 5 level.

I guess I have to watch me and see what I'm missing.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

What about Bogut as a comparison?