If you took over as GM today, what would you do?

[hands11]

hands, that is why EG has to be fired. He set back the franchise with 2009 and 2011.

I can excuse 2009. That was a different regime.

But 2011 ?

I was very disappointed that draft day. Not one of the players I had on my board was selected. My board may not have been perfect but it at least made sense.

Nikola Vucevic to replace McGee
Marshon Brooks to replace Nick

Also in consideration was Markieff Morris and Tobias Harris

Kawhi Leonard looked like a nice kid but I saw other needs.
Kenneth Faried I wasn't in love with like CCJ and some others. Again, I saw other needs as more important.

My dream scenario was a trade down of #6. I believe I wanted a first in the next draft. I can't recall exactly but that rings a bell. There was just to much value mid draft to swing at #6

Vucevic at #6 is looking like it would have been great value. I pimped the kid predraft and thought we could get him cheap in a draft down. NV at #16 was a steal.

At #18 you still had Tobias Harris and Faried on the board.

That was one brain fart of a draft for EG.

So the story on EG both with Abe and with Ted is, some good... some bad. That's kind of a scary to live with if you are a Wizards fan. I wish that were different. I would rather be able to relax and feel confident.

I wanted Beal from the start. We got him. That was a great feeling.
I was done with Nick and McGee. We got Nene for them, that was a good feeling.
Webster showed up out of no where. That was a great surprise.
And he was right about Trevor A and Okafor.

But they blow the 2011 draft, got nothing for Dray and nothing for Crawford.

Seems they have done more good then bad recently. Lets hope that tend continues.

[payitforward]

^^^
While I often disagree with you, Hands, it's certainly obvious that Vucevic (who was projected in Round 2 until fairly late that Spring) isn't the 16th worst player in that draft. I wasn't on this Board that long ago, but I loved him and would have been satisfied had we managed to grab him w/ the pick that went to Singleton.

*Of course* it's now obvious that he would have been a better pick than Vesely (and better than most of the guys taken by other teams between our pick at #6 and when he went). But I'd have picked Leonard, who will be a perennial all-star 3 and (instead of Chris) Faried, who may well turn out to be the best player in that draft; Vucevic was gone at that point -- anyway we only had 2 round 1 picks; we weren't going to get the 3 best guys to come out of that draft!

But, we could have gotten 2 of the 3 -- and we also could have and should have gotten the guy who is without question the biggest bargain from 2011 -- namely, Chandler Parsons. And, yes, I wanted him w/ our Round 2 pick; this isn't hindsight.

You also mention Markieff Morris and Marshon Brooks. Neither of them is particularly good or likely ever to be particularly good. But Tobias Harris -- whom you also mention -- could turn out to be terrific. He's only a year older than Bradley Beal!

Jordan Williams -- who isn't even in the league any more for some reason! -- had an outstanding rookie year in the NBA. We could have him *right now*. Darryl Morey already has his separated-at-birth twin Greg Smith.

Worth mentioning, however, that had we drafted well in 2011 no way would we have Brad Beal.

[hands11]

^^^
While I often disagree with you, Hands, it's certainly obvious that Vucevic (who was projected in Round 2 until fairly late that Spring) isn't the 16th worst player in that draft. I wasn't on this Board that long ago, but I loved him and would have been satisfied had we managed to grab him w/ the pick that went to Singleton.

*Of course* it's now obvious that he would have been a better pick than Vesely (and better than most of the guys taken by other teams between our pick at #6 and when he went). But I'd have picked Leonard, who will be a perennial all-star 3 and (instead of Chris) Faried, who may well turn out to be the best player in that draft; Vucevic was gone at that point -- anyway we only had 2 round 1 picks; we weren't going to get the 3 best guys to come out of that draft!

But, we could have gotten 2 of the 3 -- and we also could have and should have gotten the guy who is without question the biggest bargain from 2011 -- namely, Chandler Parsons. And, yes, I wanted him w/ our Round 2 pick; this isn't hindsight.

You also mention Markieff Morris and Marshon Brooks. Neither of them is particularly good or likely ever to be particularly good. But Tobias Harris -- whom you also mention -- could turn out to be terrific. He's only a year older than Bradley Beal!

Jordan Williams -- who isn't even in the league any more for some reason! -- had an outstanding rookie year in the NBA. We could have him *right now*. Darryl Morey already has his separated-at-birth twin Greg Smith.

Worth mentioning, however, that had we drafted well in 2011 no way would we have Brad Beal.

Don't worry. There is still time for you to get better

Leonard, Faried, Parsons
Vucevic, Faried, Parsons

Either wouldn't have sucked. I can't own that as my draft board but if we had a RGM board of draft, I think the results could easily have ended up one of those two combinations.

But hey, we got Ves, Singleton and Mack so its all good.

[Floater]

Pick whatever Euro Ernie hates the most. They are sure to work out

[montestewart]

So the story on EG both with Abe and with Ted is, some good... some bad. That's kind of a scary to live with if you are a Wizards fan. I wish that were different. I would rather be able to relax and feel confident.

Same s**t, different owner. Welcome to the dark side, hands11. But as AFM says, it's all about confidence.

[willbcocks]

If I were the FO (GM with owner's approval), I would acknowledge that we threw away our old strategy too quickly and it is blowing up in our face. I would institute a conditional tanking policy. Basically, we would stop tanking only after meeting the following condition (I would get a good stat team together and tweak this first):

All-star under 24 years old = 1 point
Number one pick = .8 points
Recent draft pick performing like a potential all star: .5 points
Top 5 pick = .5 points
5-10 pick = .3 points
10-20 pick = .1 points

Condition for ending tank = 2.5 points

The entire point of this strategy is to make sure we don't stop tanking until we get star talent, or at least have a reasonable expectation of having star talent. Therefore points are supposed to reflect the probability of getting a young, all-star caliber player. Role players count for nothing in this system. Once a player has been drafted (Beal for example), the only way he can retain points is to play like a potential all-star.

Right now, we could project that we will have 1.3 points next offseason: Beal = 0.5, Wall = 0.5, and a 5-10 pick. That's being generous to Wall.

It appears we are far short of acquiring the talent we need. My strategy would need to constantly find ways to improve our picks, and to evaluate the picks we've already made. We would not commit any significant long-term salary (i.e., Nene's deal) until we reach that 2.5 threshhold UNLESS an all-star under 24 or recent draft pick playing like an all-star became available. When we did reach the threshold, I would be open to an Okafor/Ariza type deal or signing vets to the MLE, though hopefully for players who aren't overpaid.

[hands11]

So should we just become Cavs fans instead

I mean they have

Kyrie
Waiters

Tristron
Anderson Varejao/Tyler Zeller

And a top pick.

So once LeBron is done in Miami, he can just walk back into Cleveland who would have reloaded in his absence and then he can put the city on his back while he still has some game left.

[nate33]

If I were the FO (GM with owner's approval), I would acknowledge that we threw away our old strategy too quickly and it is blowing up in our face. I would institute a conditional tanking policy. Basically, we would stop tanking only after meeting the following condition (I would get a good stat team together and tweak this first):

All-star under 24 years old = 1 point
Number one pick = .8 points
Recent draft pick performing like a potential all star: .5 points
Top 5 pick = .5 points
5-10 pick = .3 points
10-20 pick = .1 points

Condition for ending tank = 2.5 points

The entire point of this strategy is to make sure we don't stop tanking until we get star talent, or at least have a reasonable expectation of having star talent. Therefore points are supposed to reflect the probability of getting a young, all-star caliber player. Role players count for nothing in this system. Once a player has been drafted (Beal for example), the only way he can retain points is to play like a potential all-star.

Right now, we could project that we will have 1.3 points next offseason: Beal = 0.5, Wall = 0.5, and a 5-10 pick. That's being generous to Wall.

It appears we are far short of acquiring the talent we need. My strategy would need to constantly find ways to improve our picks, and to evaluate the picks we've already made. We would not commit any significant long-term salary (i.e., Nene's deal) until we reach that 2.5 threshhold UNLESS an all-star under 24 or recent draft pick playing like an all-star became available. When we did reach the threshold, I would be open to an Okafor/Ariza type deal or signing vets to the MLE, though hopefully for players who aren't overpaid.

I think you need some balance. You can't suck really bad like Charlotte because it develops a loser's atmosphere. You also can't cap yourself out with old vets like us because it knocks you out of the top of the draft entirely and it limits your ability to acquire free agents, BOYD deals and lopsided trades.

I was in favor of the McGee for Nene move because I thought it brought the right balance. Nene was perfect because when he was healthy, the team was capable of winning and learning how to win, but we knew he wouldn't be healthy enough to deliver us out of the lottery altogether. I liked the way things looked at the end of last year.

The problem was the Okariza acquisition. Neither guy is part of our future and therefore the gains made with those guys on board are meaningless. It would have been so much smarter to use that money to acquire an actual core young piece like Ryan Anderson (who also happens to be the kind of player who fits with Wall). The team this year with Wall, Beal, Webster, Anderson and Nene still wouldn't have won much thanks to injuries to Wall and Nene, but they would have played extremely well in spurts when healthy. We would still tank our way to the high lottery, but also learn to win a few games from time to time. Add one more lotto pick this year and we could have put together 4 core young players plus Nene and Webster, all of whom would fit together well.

[Knighthonor]

Hey with the Wizard's 2014 number 1 pick, lets draft a euro.

EG style baby!!

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'd like to move into next season with an eye on stability and continuity. I'd keep the coaching staff as is. I'd keep the team together as is, with the exception of hopefully Ariza opting out and giving us enough space to re-sign Webster and Price. Use our MLE to add another shooter, and maybe another vet guard. I'd move Vesely anyway possible (Vesely plus our 2nd rounders for a late 1st for example).

Looking at free agents, there are several ex-Duke players including Dunleavy, Reddick, Nolan Smith. Also Chase Budinger. Dunleavy could be a good piece for this team as a shooter in the front court.

Revised ideal offseason (with reasonable reality)...

Ariza opts out.

Deal Vesely, 2nd rounders to TWolves for #26.

Draft Otto Porter and Jeff Withey

Resign Webster and Price

Sign FAs Dunleavy and Nolan Smith.


Okafor
Withey
Seraphin
Nene
Booker
Dunleavy
Singleton
Porter
Webster
Beal
Temple
Satoransky
N.Smith
Price
Wall

[tontoz]

^^^
But I'd have picked Leonard, who will be a perennial all-star 3 and (instead of Chris) Faried,

Slow your roll. He is averaging 11/5.

Vesely was obviously a horrible pick (as was the consensus at the time) but lets not get carried away with Leonard.

[Ruzious]

Leonard is becoming a very good all-around player. I don't think there was ever a question that he could excell defensively in the NBA. But if anyone seriously thought he'd become an excellent 3 point shooter - especially so early in his career - please tell me what stocks are going up - because you can see into the future.

[fishercob]

I dreamed last night that the season ended and Ernie was fired. There were some typically bizarre dream details, but suffice it to say I was pleased.

But if I'm running the team, here's what thinking at the moment. We have to make a decision on Wall and soon. So at the conclusion of the season, I meet with him and tell him that I want this out of his offseason:

1) Go take two weeks off. Relax, clear your head, whatever it is. Then you report back to Washington and it's time to get to work.

2) John takes a physical. I need to understand what's going on in that knee and the rest of his body.

3) John submits to a daily regimen of conditioning, skill work (ballhandling, shooting especially) and film study. The expectation is that the days will be long and grueling with the understanding that John has a lot of progress to make this summer. As an aside, I provide John (and any player who is working at the facility) up to three meals a day of actual healthy food.

If Wall bucks on any aspect of 2 or 3, I quietly begin to shop him with the plan of trading him by draft night. While his potential is tantalizing, I need proof-provided assurances that he's all-in on improving himself and will subjugate his own ego and desires for the good of the team. I simply refuse to risk giving a big extension to a guy who could end up as damaged goods physically or just as a mediocre player.

[pancakes3]

Sounds wonderful, Fish but I have to wonder if discipline like that can be forced on a guy like Wall. Do you think Beal would need it? Guys like Arenas surely didn't. Kevin Love lost his weight entirely on his own. Rose certainly had made advances to his game as opposed to... Westbrook.

It might be an exercise in futility. You'd get a great year from him - that contract year. Then once you sign your extension, would there be clauses in there demanding that he continues to submit to your particular brand of training? I doubt his agent would let him sign something like that.

I think you can definitely get 1 and 2 done but as far as 3 goes? I think the best you can do is offer up the meals, the facility, and personnel but in this case, I don't think you can even lead the horse to water much less make him drink. He has to want to improve on his own - which there's a decent chance that he wants to and will. Also, I think you've got to focus more on just Wall.

I think you just have a team meeting saying you're sick and tired of rebuilds and that the pieces we have now: Wall, Beal, WebsteRiza, Nenekofar, and Porter/Noel are good enough to win 50 games. The only barrier is on their own hard work. You set up shop at the Verizon Center over the summer and see who comes. You've got to build camaraderie. Unofficial practices with unofficial staff and unofficial meals. Unofficial video game tournaments and unofficial teambuilding exercises (unofficial paintballing?) Unofficial skydiving trips. Unofficial barbeques where they bring their family. Stuff like that, the Spurs do all the time. Unofficial 3 point contests that get put up on youtube but don't be a welshing dick about it. What's a couple of thousand here and there for Ted when it will almost guarantee extra wins next season?

It's the Cuban model. He puts in a couple of X-boxes in the locker room and morale just skyrockets. Everyone in the league knows about it and really it costs him... 8 grand tops?

Then if Wall doesn't come in and decides to go dougie with Chris Brown over the offseason, that speaks for itself. That or offer straight cash. you can't legislate morality but you sure as heck can tax it.

[fishercob]

Cakes, there's little downside to Wall having a great contract year. Even if he grows complacent after signing an extension and his performance slips, there will still be a robust trade market for him given the recency of his success.

I also just don't think that 3 is that much to ask from a supposed Franchise Player. Wall should agree to it with alacrity. He should **want** to get better with every fiber of his being. If that's not the case, I know he's not my guy and I move on.

[dobrojim]

Re Fish's #3 -

I think this has to be approached with a certain degree of diplomacy.
You discuss with the player(s) about what it would take to see them
do as you suggest you would like to see them do. If they make ridiculous
demands or seem complacent with just going along 'on their own', then
maybe you do as Fish suggests, quietly and judiciously consider him or any
other player you have similar discussions with less than untouchable.
Of course Wall's situation is the most critical since he will in 3 years most
likely be the highest paid player on the team.

I think you have to present it as a whole team thing (that mgmt includes itself in)
to all the players and in so doing, signal that mgmt will support and reward diligent effort
as much as they reasonably can.

I agree with cakes that the core of this team might reasonably be expected
to win 50 games barring catastrophic injuries, like we had this year. As much as
EG does deserve criticism for many many awful draft picks, this season would
have been way different if we open with a reasonably healthy Wall and Nene.
Of course we should have weathered their absence better than we did and that
is on EG.

I do generally like the core of this team now though. A little luck in the lotto
and a good draft (one, or 2 in my dreams, of OP, VO, Bennett, Burke, Zeller) and
we're a hopefully little better yet.

Even though Nene, Ok and Ariza are around 30, I don't see any of them slowing
down that much in the next 3-4 years.

[nate33]

Even though Nene, Ok and Ariza are around 30, I don't see any of them slowing
down that much in the next 3-4 years.

Ariza is only 27.

I agree that Oak is showing no signs of slowing down and may actually be peaking.

Nene is the wildcard. He looks kinda old out there, but that's because he's been dealing with injuries that never healed last summer because of the Olympics. Is it the beginning of the end for him as injuries take their toll? Or will he come back looking much more spry and athletic after a summer of actual rest and rehab? I really want to see him lose a little weight though. It's painful watching him finish in traffic without any lift at all.

[dobrojim]

Agree, Nene is the wildcard. We're stuck with him either way since
he has the longest time left on his deal. As posted earlier somewhere
that I don't think it's that unreasonable that he could return to better
health simply with the full rest of the off-season.

[Nivek]

I agree, nate -- Nene is definitely the wildcard here. His production is WAY down this season, probably because of the foot and shoulder issues. That said, he's 30, and this is when the decline starts. His PPA in previous seasons was in that 160-180 range, which is excellent. This year, he's down to 114 at last update. He has game, and he's still a superb defender, but I agree that I'd like to see him get healthy and lose 10-15 pounds.

[dobrojim]

the optimist in me thinks he rushed himself back perhaps feeling guilty
that by playing in the Olympics, he failed to get healthy in the off-season
when he could have by resting more. His current injuries seem to be the kind of thing
that just won't get better until he stops playing.

He doesn't seem overweight to me visually. But he really doesn't finish
around the rim like a guy that was perennially among the top 5 in FG%
for much of his time in DEN.