Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Dat2U]

I think Burke is going to be a top 5 pick before it's all over. PGs seem to always go higher than expected. McCollum being a top 7 pick wouldn't surprise me either.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Looking at the 2011 draft. Wizards had #6 and #18... Vesely and Singleton.

They could of drafted Vucevic and Faried.

But of course, NOBODY could of made those picks or had any idea those 2 players would be any good.

Don't forget Chandler Parsons in the second round. Or Lavoy Allen. But Chandler Parsons. Really.

The 2011 draft was crippling.

Every player drafted between Vesely and Faried looks to some degree to be worth more than we got except maybe one of the Morris twins, Nolan Smith and Singleton.

That's what I call a whiff.

What makes it even worse, and 10x as criminal is that supposedly EG was scouting the hell out of him from '09-'10 for the '10 draft, so he was basically beating the drum for this talentless hack for at least two freaking years without ever noticing that he couldn't play a lick. Not one freaking lick. How the hell is that possible? Noticing flaws in game, fine, but not noticing he couldn't play period?!?!?!

Again, how in hell is that possible?

This is what is most troubling. Add to the mix the 2009 debacle of trading the #5 (Steph Curry??) pick for Miller/Foye, and that's 2 high picks within the last 4 drafts (#5 & #6) that Ernie has thrown in the trash.


But it just really baffles me that a pure amateur like myself can clearly see Vesely has no NBA skill, yet Vucevic was also a Euro who had proven his effectiveness in the American game at USC leading the PAC-12 in rebounding, was a legit 7 footer with size, who could clearly shoot and rebound. Moves well, soft hands, can score and pass well from the low post, and an outstanding work ethic to boot. He obviously had translatable skills, and is now averaging 12pts (on 52% shooting), 11 boards, 1.7 assts per game.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Nik ... evic-5828/

I mean just watching the workout video DX had before the draft you can see the guy has skills. In comparison Vesely has NO skills. He's the most unskilled Euro player I have ever seen. I don't understand the logic of building the team on a Wall/Vesely combo of fast players who can't shoot. This was the vision of Ernie Grunfeld in 2011. And then added another player with no offensive skill at 18 in Singleton to add to the mix, who played the same position as the just drafted Vesely.

[stevemcqueen1]

DX had Vesely ranked around 6th IIRC. They note how he used to have spot up range and even shot the 3 ball in Europe. He's gotten worse since he got here.

I think Grantland is wholly guilty of hindsight bias in their analysis of Wall. Wall was every bit the prospect Griffin and Irving were, and when he got into the league he was doing things no PG since Magic and Oscar had done. The problem is that we're ruining him. We put him in a disastrous situation and positioned him for failure. There was not a single other good player on the team when Wall was drafted. He's our longest tenured player! We got nothing from the 2009 draft which should have ensured there was at least one good young player for Wall to grow with. We were spending nearly half our cap in two contracts, first Arenas and Blatche then Shard and Blatche. Think about how bad that is for a second. We got absolutely nothing from almost half our cap for the first two years of Wall's career. We basically spotted that money to the league as a handicap.

Then we had a lockout that stunted Wall's growth, then we had the weak 2011 class and got nothing out of it in turn.

Now we have about 4 or 5 other good players for Wall to play with, all acquired since last year's trade deadline. And lo and behold, we're actually winning some games with Wall now, playing just above .500. About what you'd expect from a team with ~6 good, NBA quality players. But Wall only got 9 games with Nene last year. That means, prior to this season, Wall had only played 9 games with one single player who was good and could start for other teams.

I hope nobody is kidding themselves into thinking we wouldn't have ruined Griffin and Irving and Rose just the same if they had come out the year we picked first. We were a true disaster and we're only just now starting to turn around. It's a bit of a miracle John has been as good as he has TBH.

[stevemcqueen1]

And on the flip side, look at OKC. In 2007 they got Durant and Jeff Green. In 2008 they got Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. In 2009 they got Harden. In 2010-11 they flipped Green for Kendrick Perkins. In 2011-12 they're in the NBA finals. They nailed three drafts in a row out of the park and got Durant a championship caliber team in place almost immediately around Durant. And Seattle had struck out a ton in the years immediately prior to 2007, picking total scrubs like Mouhamed Sene, Johan Petro, and Robert Swift so the cupboard was nearly as bare then as it was for us in 2010.

Wall didn't get his first side kick until year three pretty much. He's going to take so much longer because the team is going to take so much longer to come together.

[Ruzious]

DX had Vesely ranked around 6th IIRC. They note how he used to have spot up range and even shot the 3 ball in Europe. He's gotten worse since he got here.

I think Grantland is wholly guilty of hindsight bias in their analysis of Wall. Wall was every bit the prospect Griffin and Irving were, and when he got into the league he was doing things no PG since Magic and Oscar had done. The problem is that we're ruining him. We put him in a disastrous situation and positioned him for failure. There was not a single other good player on the team when Wall was drafted. He's our longest tenured player! We got nothing from the 2009 draft which should have ensured there was at least one good young player for Wall to grow with. We were spending nearly half our cap in two contracts, first Arenas and Blatche then Shard and Blatche. Think about how bad that is for a second. We got absolutely nothing from almost half our cap for the first two years of Wall's career. We basically spotted that money to the league as a handicap.

Then we had a lockout that stunted Wall's growth, then we had the weak 2011 class and got nothing out of it in turn.

Now we have about 4 or 5 other good players for Wall to play with, all acquired since last year's trade deadline. And lo and behold, we're actually winning some games with Wall now, playing just above .500. About what you'd expect from a team with ~6 good, NBA quality players. But Wall only got 9 games with Nene last year. That means, prior to this season, Wall had only played 9 games with one single player who was good and could start for other teams.

I hope nobody is kidding themselves into thinking we wouldn't have ruined Griffin and Irving and Rose just the same if they had come out the year we picked first. We were a true disaster and we're only just now starting to turn around. It's a bit of a miracle John has been as good as he has TBH.

DX is good, but you give them way too much credit on their scouting reports from prior years (I think they've improved this year.). Vesely got destroyed in the Wiz forum long before he was picked. I did far more than my share of the destroying. His shooting stats stunk, and it was clear his skills and physical ability were way overrated. With all the Euro game videos we had posted, I think some of us on this board did more scouting of him than Ernie did.

[pancakes3]

If only the flip side was just OKC. Pretty much every other team in the league has cashed out with their draft picks except us and the bobcats.

[Nivek]

...I think some of us on this board did more scouting of him than Ernie did.

This is the part that's puzzling. There were stories to the effect that Ernie had seen Vesely in person several times. The folks I talk with from time to time in the front office told me their scouts and/or front office folks had seen Vesely play "dozens" of times. They were convinced he'd be a quality NBA player.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

DX had Vesely ranked around 6th IIRC. They note how he used to have spot up range and even shot the 3 ball in Europe. He's gotten worse since he got here.

I think Grantland is wholly guilty of hindsight bias in their analysis of Wall. Wall was every bit the prospect Griffin and Irving were, and when he got into the league he was doing things no PG since Magic and Oscar had done. The problem is that we're ruining him. We put him in a disastrous situation and positioned him for failure. There was not a single other good player on the team when Wall was drafted. He's our longest tenured player! We got nothing from the 2009 draft which should have ensured there was at least one good young player for Wall to grow with. We were spending nearly half our cap in two contracts, first Arenas and Blatche then Shard and Blatche. Think about how bad that is for a second. We got absolutely nothing from almost half our cap for the first two years of Wall's career. We basically spotted that money to the league as a handicap.

Then we had a lockout that stunted Wall's growth, then we had the weak 2011 class and got nothing out of it in turn.

Now we have about 4 or 5 other good players for Wall to play with, all acquired since last year's trade deadline. And lo and behold, we're actually winning some games with Wall now, playing just above .500. About what you'd expect from a team with ~6 good, NBA quality players. But Wall only got 9 games with Nene last year. That means, prior to this season, Wall had only played 9 games with one single player who was good and could start for other teams.

I hope nobody is kidding themselves into thinking we wouldn't have ruined Griffin and Irving and Rose just the same if they had come out the year we picked first. We were a true disaster and we're only just now starting to turn around. It's a bit of a miracle John has been as good as he has TBH.

This is why, although I do have criticisms and disappointments in regards to Wall's game thus far, I am not giving up yet. He is still young, seems to work hard, and seems to have the right attitude regarding being here and trying to turn things around. He's been on a team in disarray, had the lockout last year, and injury this year.

It's been said he plans on working this offseason with Beal, and also with Gary Payton. He's had less a full season of court time with Nene, Okafor, Beal, etc, and come next season should have improved chemistry. I do see the culture change that started about a year ago with the Nene trade looking successful and looks like we're moving in the right direction. If we add a good player in this draft that can contribute next season in a way similar to what Beal has done this year to add to this mix that is key. I think will have put a good team around Wall for the 1st time, and with improved chemistry and health we will see what Wall truly has to offer, and can make a real assessment before making long term decisions about his contract.

[FAH1223]

...I think some of us on this board did more scouting of him than Ernie did.

This is the part that's puzzling. There were stories to the effect that Ernie had seen Vesely in person several times. The folks I talk with from time to time in the front office told me their scouts and/or front office folks had seen Vesely play "dozens" of times. They were convinced he'd be a quality NBA player.

Yeah, if it was R.C. Buford picking him and Greg Poppovich coaching him.

[stevemcqueen1]

This is why, although I do have criticisms and disappointments in regards to Wall's game thus far, I am not giving up yet. He is still young, seems to work hard, and seems to have the right attitude regarding being here and trying to turn things around. He's been on a team in disarray, had the lockout last year, and injury this year.

It's been said he plans on working this offseason with Beal, and also with Gary Payton. He's had less a full season of court time with Nene, Okafor, Beal, etc, and come next season should have improved chemistry. I do see the culture change that started about a year ago with the Nene trade looking successful and looks like we're moving in the right direction. If we add a good player in this draft that can contribute next season in a way similar to what Beal has done this year to add to this mix that is key. I think will have put a good team around Wall for the 1st time, and with improved chemistry and health we will see what Wall truly has to offer, and can make a real assessment before making long term decisions about his contract.

I don't think we have any superstars. So to get good, I think we've got to get a group of about 9 players who are good. Five starters and four key reserves, a third big, a credible backup PG, a stopper, and someone who can score off the bench and step into a starter's on the wing or at a forward spot when a starter goes down.

I think we've got six good NBA players right now. Wall, Beal, Martell, Ariza, Nene, Okafor. Martell's a FA after this season. Okafor and Ariza are majorly overpaid. Nene is somewhat overpaid, but not problematically so unless he starts getting hurt for long stretches.

That's problematic. I hope we can get Webster back on a good deal. But he's a sub 15 PER player and not someone you overpay for if you want to get good. Likewise, I hope we can bring Okafor and Ariza back after next season. But not anywhere near their current annual salary. Ariza is a backup wing, you can't pay him 7 and a half million annually. And Okafor should be like 8 million a year at most. He's making several million dollars annually more than Duncan, Noah, Gasol, and KG for instance. You can't have him making over three times what JJ Hickson makes.

So we might lose three of our good players. That'd be a huge set back, but it might necessary to have a sane financial situation. Either way, we need to crush this draft pick and we really need to be getting a starter out of it.

If we did get Martell back on a reasonable deal, did get Oak and Ariza to come back on appropriate deals, did nail the draft pick, and Seraphin develops into a reliable backup big, then I think we'd be a backup PG away from being a good team.

But then to make the next leap to being a great team without superstars like the Spurs, we'd need Wall, Beal, and this draft pick to become 20 PER players, and Nene to be ~19 PER player. That's what SA has with Parker, Ginobli, Duncan, and Splitter. That is unlikely to happen.

[Ruzious]

...I think some of us on this board did more scouting of him than Ernie did.

This is the part that's puzzling. There were stories to the effect that Ernie had seen Vesely in person several times. The folks I talk with from time to time in the front office told me their scouts and/or front office folks had seen Vesely play "dozens" of times. They were convinced he'd be a quality NBA player.

The only explanation I can think of is - they saw what they expected to see - after reading reports from people who's opinions they respected? Well, I didn't say it was a good explanation.

Or maybe they have a statistical model they use for Euro players that relies on faulty assumptions or faulty calculations?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

...I think some of us on this board did more scouting of him than Ernie did.

This is the part that's puzzling. There were stories to the effect that Ernie had seen Vesely in person several times. The folks I talk with from time to time in the front office told me their scouts and/or front office folks had seen Vesely play "dozens" of times. They were convinced he'd be a quality NBA player.

The only explanation I can think of is - they saw what they expected to see - after reading reports from people who's opinions they respected? Well, I didn't say it was a good explanation.

Or maybe they have a statistical model they use for Euro players that relies on faulty assumptions or faulty calculations?

I'm picturing Ernie in the stands, having some brew-skis, surrounded by the crowd going absolutely hysterical because apparently no one over there ever dunks, thinking to himself "Wow this is exciting!".

[Nivek]

...I think some of us on this board did more scouting of him than Ernie did.

This is the part that's puzzling. There were stories to the effect that Ernie had seen Vesely in person several times. The folks I talk with from time to time in the front office told me their scouts and/or front office folks had seen Vesely play "dozens" of times. They were convinced he'd be a quality NBA player.

The only explanation I can think of is - they saw what they expected to see - after reading reports from people who's opinions they respected? Well, I didn't say it was a good explanation.

Or maybe they have a statistical model they use for Euro players that relies on faulty assumptions or faulty calculations?

Over the 2nd half of last season, Vesely seemed to be on his way to proving them right. He didn't look like a future All-Star, but he appeared like a guy who could be a defense/rebounding role player -- a guy who could defend multiple positions. And then this season, he regressed so hard he gave the team whiplash. I can't remember seeing a player unimprove so dramatically. The next closest candidate I can think of is Seraphin. Also this season.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

...I think some of us on this board did more scouting of him than Ernie did.

This is the part that's puzzling. There were stories to the effect that Ernie had seen Vesely in person several times. The folks I talk with from time to time in the front office told me their scouts and/or front office folks had seen Vesely play "dozens" of times. They were convinced he'd be a quality NBA player.

Errrrrrbody on this board said don't draft Vesely. He was voted the name we least wanted to hear on draft night.

As far his being a quality player, Jan's been screwed over worse than Wall when it comes to player development.

Jan reminds of the NFL's Tim Tebow. The guy can play but you have to totally build around him and compensate at other positions for what he cannot do. Don't try to make Tebow a traditional passer. He's a wildcat guy. Tebow didn't even get to try a zone read scheme like RG III. Folks tried to convert him into a pocket passer. DUMB. Likewise, when the Wizards watched Jan, they had see the guy finish a lot of lob dunks. They had to see the guy run like a gazelle. They should have noted AT NO TIME WAS JAN A POWER PLAYER in Europe. They had to know that Jan was a TURRIBLE FT shooter and not a traditional scoring SF. They had to see Jan ON THE PERIMETER and winning in intangible ways through having a high IQ. Jan can play SF if you accept that he cannot score off anything but lob dunks. His has an explosive first step off screen roll. In two steps after setting a pick, he's right at the rim and going to throw it down quickly. Jan can play SF that way. Make teams try to match up because he can rebound very well. But what do the Wizards do? They bring him to the US in a new game. They tell Jan to gain weight and become a PF or a C. Anything but a SF. DUMB.

Vesely can certainly be a serviceably decent player but it won't happen now. Not after the Okariza deal and his confidence being obliterated by the most clueless front office in all of basketball. EG scouted him then the Wizards benched the guy after making sure he was in the worst possible circumstances to succeed.

If to get him to come to the US the Wizards made some sort of deal with Vesely and his agent that they wouldn't send him to D-League that was just stupid. Vesely needed the D-League after the foolish trade, or Jan should have been traded. There are teams that have seen him been quite effective in the NBA before this season.

[stevemcqueen1]

Started out watching UNLV vs Air Force on TV for Anthony Bennett. Now I'm watching it for Lauren Gardner. She is hot.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't like Doug Gottlieb. But he noticed something at the same time as I did watching Bennett, and to his credit he pointed it out even though it contradicted the point he had just finished making. Bennett was playing on ball D and looked very quick and comfortable sliding with a much smaller opponent. His lateral quickness is good, his arms are very long, I think he'll be able to surprise people and play perimeter D.

Jerry Tarkanian looks painfully old. The face frozen in a permanent look of horror as Bill Burr would say.

[stevemcqueen1]

Anthony Bennett is a fascinating talent.

[Dat2U]

Bennett looks like a man among boys. His body screams PF but he does move pretty quick.

He's apparently got rep as a dog defensively but is stepping it up today on that end of the court.

His measurements are going to be oh so crucial. I got him 10 or 11 at the moment on my draft board but he can certainly move up if his standing reach is acceptable for a PF.

[stevemcqueen1]

Good Lord Bennett just had an amazing few minutes that sparked a big run. Drained a three ball, drew another foul on a long 2, blocked a three pointer that caused a fast break, scooped up an offensive rebound and put it back, playing great defense and helping out, then throws down a reverse dunk on a break.

He's more than a Paul Milsap. He's really good. But his conditioning and motor are questionable. He just gets tired.

He's kind of like a big, heavy Kawhi Leonard.

[pancakes3]

To me it seems he wants to be Earl Clark, but should be JJ Hickson.