The OFFICIAL rookie impressions thread pt.III

[fart]

I think if you take the s out of https it will embed.

[Dupp]

Waiters' spin move:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMjMWMGUY7Q[/youtube]

Waiters' dunk
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7YHzkWd9S0[/youtube]

Not sure why I can't get these to embed

Lose the s on https:

Not sure why it embed with the s they should fix that

[fishnc]

Wow, he looked explosive on those moves. More videos please Cavs fans.

[orangeparka]

Like I said, smaller/less explosive poor man's D-Wade.

[NO-KG-AI]

Here is a list of rookie front court players(age 18-19) that have played 25+ minutes as rookies(sorted by PER):

Here

Davis production is actually quite amazing. He's breaking the mold for what should be expected of a teenager whose body is way underdeveloped.

15 is average, Dwight and Melo are the only ones who were a fair bit above the average(Durant, Garnett, Bosh etc being far less developed strength wise).

I'd have expected Davis to be closer to their level of production, but he's far and away the most efficient and effective, and that list of 11 guys turned out well. (7 of the 11 being all stars, 2 of them rookies now...1 MVP, two legit MVP candidates, 2 fringe MVP candidates)

He's only behind Melo and Durant in terms of points, and second to Dwight as a rebounder.

Edit: Durant played a lot of SG as a rookie if I remember correctly.

[marsblazer]

How have Waiters & Beals defense been? I haven't seen any cavs or wiz games besides the blazer ones.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

One of the criticisms of Lillard, he plays best when not a full time point guard. Maybe it is too much asking him to be a first option in both scoring and playmaking while maintaining efficiency, maybe it is reflective of the evolution the NBA is going through - more small ball, multiple play initiators - but scoring combo guards have not been looked on too favorably.

Perhaps Lillard can be the one to break the mold - he's got great skills, he's got great character, great BBIQ - pretty much all the tangibles and intangibles necessary. His uphill battle will be against the type of player he is, to see if he can rise above all the other mediocre scoring combo-guards who came before him.

I have not seen the criticism you talk about and if I had, I'd imagine I would disagree. Got and links?

Lillard is doing fine as a PG. His passing numbers are pretty equivalent if not better then a lot of the higher level PG's today when they were rookies. And my guess is that Lillard is getting more defensive focus then most of his peers got as rookies

But I think any PG is going to be affected if he is the only competent ball-handler on the team capable of running an offense. I don't think it's a coincidence that Lillard's efficiency declines started about the time Batum was injured. Before then, Batum was carrying some of the load of running the offense and finding shots for himself and others. And of course, the Blazers did not have any capable ball-hndlers on the bench

the fact that Lillard's efficiency jumped back up after Eric Maynor arrived sure seems to support that narrative.

go back and look at other PG's to see what kind of ball-handling help they had as rookies. Chris Paul had Speedy Claxton who averaged 5 assists and they played a lot together. Deron Williams had AK47 and Keith Keith McLeod to share burden as well as some good big men passers. Derick Rose had Ben Gordon and Kirk Heinrich. Westbrook had Earl Watson who actually average more assists. Ty Lawson had Chauncy Billups and Melo. Stephon Curry had Monta & CJ Watson. Jrue Holiday had Iggy, Lou Williams. Wiilie Green and 25 games of AI

meanwhile, Lillard has had Nolan Smith, Ronnie Price, an injured Batum and 8 games of Eric Maynor. That's baptism by fire, and while his peers generally had veteran back court help as rookies, Lillard has essentially been on an island

Whoa, sorry don't look too hard for those links, this is just my own personal criticism. I have talked before about the inherent problems with asking your point guard to carry a scoring load.

The point about his efficiency fluctuating with the quality of ball handlers kind of proves my point, that he does best when he can play off the ball at times. Again, maybe it is just that asking a player to be a main scorer and main playmaker is also asking his efficiency to take a hit - your examples support that notion. Still, it supports the point that Lillard is a bit of a combo-guard simply because a high scoring, high efficiency pure-point is a bit of a conundrum. So take my criticism with a grain of salt that perhaps asking for all 3 is looking for a pie in the sky.

I am not saying I am not impressed with Lillard. He has balanced the role he has been put in as well as any veteran could. Maybe it is really just an observation that NBA teams need multiple playmakers to avoid defense from keying in on one particular player, something anyone who has watched the Blazers has qualitatively observed happening to Lillard.

So again, the only criticism (and that might even be the wrong word) is that Lillard has been his best in a combo-guard type role rather than a pure-point type role. Maybe a high-level combo-guard is not the worst thing in an NBA that requires multiple ball-handlers/play-makers, but it does worry me when looking at the track records of players fitting that mold. (Lots of personal success but not as much team success - again maybe I am looking at a pie in the sky)

[King d]

How have Waiters & Beals defense been? I haven't seen any cavs or wiz games besides the blazer ones.

Haven't seen advanced stats, but using my eye test Beal's defense definitely looks above average, or at least I see potential there. He makes the typical rookie mistake here and there, but overall he looks like a good team defender

[Shem]

Rookie Ladder updated:
http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/

[lothy]

D-mo with 19 PTS, 7-12 FG, 5REB, and 2 AST in 27 min of play.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPGXoMYBGS8[/youtube]

[UCFJayBird]

what's Non-Magic fans impressions of Harkless?

[fishnc]

what's Non-Magic fans impressions of Harkless?

Show us some video.

[GhostsOfGil]

How have Waiters & Beals defense been? I haven't seen any cavs or wiz games besides the blazer ones.

Beal's defense has been very good for a 19 year old kid. There have only been 5 rookie guards in the history of the nba, who posted a dRTG of 104 or better while playing at least 31 mpg.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1955&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&qual=&c1stat=def_rtg&c1comp=lt&c1val=104&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=31&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

As a fellow Wiz board member pointed out, dTRG can be a product of the team, however this goes to show, that Beal is big contributor to the defense.

[Wizenheimer]

How have Waiters & Beals defense been? I haven't seen any cavs or wiz games besides the blazer ones.

Beal's defense has been very good for a 19 year old kid. There have only been 5 rookie guards in the history of the nba, who posted a dRTG of 104 or better while playing at least 31 mpg.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=1955&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&qual=&c1stat=def_rtg&c1comp=lt&c1val=104&c2stat=mp_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=31&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

As a fellow Wiz board member pointed out, dTRG can be a product of the team, however this goes to show, that Beal is big contributor to the defense.

personally, I don't put much stock in those individual defensive ratings as a stand-alone stat.

* In this case, using it for Beal doesn't show anything positive, in my view. That's because while Beal has a rating of 104, the Wizards have a team rating of 102. Beal has a worse defensive rating then the team he plays for, and a 2 point gap is actually pretty significant. So, there's plenty of reason to believe his number is a function of the team, rather then a function of his own defense

* he holds opposing SG's to an eFG% of .541, a pts/48 mark of 21.5, and a PER of 15.9. Those are OK numbers, nothing great, but with the defensive rating in mind, you have to wonder if he's getting a statistical bump from the Wizard's team defense.

+ The Wizards allow 104.9 points/100-possessions when Beal is on the court. However, they allow 102.0 points/100-possessions when he's off-court. In other words they are a better defensive team without Beal on the floor

* according to Synergy data, Beal 'allows' 0.88 points/possession which ranks 227th among NBA players. That's hardly an impressive number. On the plus side, he allows 0.72 points/possession in isolation, ranking 85th. That probably indicates his man-defense is decent and his weaknesses are more rookie related then ability & lateral quickness related

it doesn't look like there is any statistical support for saying Beal is a good defender. The thing is, it's pretty unrealistic to expect any rookie to be a good defender, especially perimeter players, and even more especially perimeter players who are expected to carry some scoring loads. It's just too early to forecast defense, one way or the other

[GhostsOfGil]

^ Good response Wiz. His defensive on/off numbers are +2, like you said, but I hardly consider that a significant gap. But your right, Beals dRTG is getting a statistical bump from guys like Nene (dRTG 100) Wall (97!) and Okafor (98). The good news is that Beal's defensive progression has been fantastic.

[NO-KG-AI]

Wiz, what would you say about Davis' rating? I'm like you, I like to see how it stacks up in comparison to the team, in his case, it's 104, on a team with a 110 average. Tied for the lead with Aminu.

104 isn't great, but on a team that averages 110....

[Wizenheimer]

Wiz, what would you say about Davis' rating? I'm like you, I like to see how it stacks up in comparison to the team, in his case, it's 104, on a team with a 110 average. Tied for the lead with Aminu.

104 isn't great, but on a team that averages 110....

that's an excellent number, although as I alluded to, posting good defensive ratings are much more difficult for rookie perimeter players then rookie bigs

trouble is, that's the only supposed defensive metric where Davis performs well so you have to wonder if it's an outlier

* Davis allows opposing PF's and eFG of .525, and opposing C's an eFG of .575; he allows opposing PF's 23.2 points/48 and opposing C's 18.7 points/48; he allows opposing PF's a PER of 20.6 and opposing C's a PER of 21.5. Those are not impressive defensive numbers at all

* that impression seems supported by the fact that the Hornets allow 111.1 points/100-possessions when Davis is on-court, but only 109.1 points/100-possessions when Davis is off-court. New Orleans is 2 points better defensively with Davis on the bench

* Synergy data show that Davis allows 0.92 points/possession to his man. That ranks 300th in the NBA. Not good. He does only allow 0.64 points/possession in isolation which ranks 31st. That's good. But he allows 0.89 points/possession in post-up which ranks 151st, which is rather weak for a big

now, I think any single supposed defensive metric should be viewed a little (or a lot) skeptically. When you have several that pretty much say the same thing, you can probably assume there's some validity to the numbers

combining all of those numbers with observation, my guess is that for Davis the standard narrative is probably pretty accurate. That being that Davis has the potential to be an excellent defender, but to get there he's going to have to increase mass and strength without losing lateral quickness. I think the variance between the Synergy isolation and post-up numbers support that

[NO-KG-AI]

Agreed. He has his moments, but he's still adjusting to the speed of NBA offenses.

I wonder how his on/off numbers would look if he didn't get hurt and our lineups didn't shift so much. I really like how Lopez/Davis/Aminu defend and attack the glass when they play together.

[RYgoBOOM]

what's Non-Magic fans impressions of Harkless?

this

[Sabzi]

I would never put any real stock in on/off court numbers due to the sheer number of variables associated with it. Who else is on the court matters greatly just as who replaces you on the court matters greatly. It's just as terrible as plus/minus.