If you took over as GM today, what would you do?

[dobrojim]

PS - if healthy and if Wall's recent play is an honest harbinger of what's
to come (and I'm not predicting that one way or the other), but if...

this team's ceiling is higher than the run-gun, no D Gil-AJ-Caron EJ teams.
Way higher IMO as their foundation is defense. And they have higher IQ
players.

[pancakes3]

I think my response to Fish came off as too much anti-wall. The point was that we shouldn't actively push for him to work out and improve but rather provide the facilities and see how he reacts. I'm sure he'll take to it, but just to be sure. Of course Fish makes a good point in rebutting that even if Wall's efforts aren't sustainable, a good contract year buoys his trade value even further.

The second part of the post was to say that though Wall is still a big part, he's no longer THE savior that we once anointed. He's got a great ensemble cast backing him up and a top 5 pick to follow. Building chemistry is bigger than Wall getting a jumper, imo.

+1 to all the preceding acknowledgements to Nate. Nene is indeed the question mark of next season. His performance could be the difference between a 35 win team and a 50 win team (perhaps more if we did have Noel to fill in the PF spot).

The contingency plan, of course, would be for EG to wheel and deal the spare parts: Booker, Singleton, Vesely, Seraphin into a decent backup 4/5. I'm not opposed to radical radiation-matter recombination experimentation where we fuse the 4 of them into a frankenstein monster of a player. I'm picturing Joel Pryzbilla only darker, shoots jump hooks at a 44% rate, and a through-the-roof foul rate.

[Rafael122]

IF Ariza opts out:

1. Re-sign Webster, 3 yr deal/7-8.5 million.
2. If given the opportunity, draft Otto Porter
3. If possible, trade either Singleton OR Seraphin to Utah (in need of bigs) for one of their 1st round draft picks.
4. With said pick, draft Jeff Withey.
5. Do not pick up the 4th year option on Jan Vesely
6. Package both 2nd round picks for a 2014 first round pick, lottery protected.

Roster:
PG - John Wall
SG - Bradley Beal
SF - Martell Webster/Otto Porter
PF: Nene/Booker/Vesely/Singleton
C: Okafor/Withey

TOTAL Cap Number: $49 million give or take

Free Agency: I need of a backup point guard, and shooting guard. I would sign Eric Maynor to a 2 or 3 year deal, depending on the money. He would stabilize the backup point guard spot. I would bring back AJ Price for a little over the vet minimum.

I would look into signing Carlos Delfino, gives us an outside shooting threatoff the bench to go with Porter. Booker and Withey on the inside.

2014 offseason:

Okafor and Vesely are off the books.
Singleton's 4th year option was not picked up.
Re-sign Wall to a 4 year/$44 million deal.
Re-sign Booker to a 3 year/$9 million deal (depending on how productive he is)
Sign DeMarcus Cousins or Anderson Varejao.

There's a glut of small forwards, but I got Webster on the cheap, and Porter is the future. No need to spend money there, fortify the center spot for the next 5-7 years, you got Wall back signed for 4. You have a back up point guard, backup shooting guard in Maynor and Delfino signed as well. Thoughts? I'm doing this at work so its not flushed out as much but Wall's market has been set, and the only big money you're spending over the next few years is to get a starting center. Maynor and Delfino ideally would have expiring contracts. Just in time to give Beal a new deal.

[fishercob]

Agree, Nene is the wildcard. We're stuck with him either way since
he has the longest time left on his deal. As posted earlier somewhere
that I don't think it's that unreasonable that he could return to better
health simply with the full rest of the off-season.

I don't think it's especially unreasonable. Just the same, I think it's unreasonable to assume that he certainly will bounce back. I guess that's what you, Kev and nate are all saying. Just keep in mind that lots of guys played in the Olympics this summer. Some of them surely had nagging injuries that healed or that they have been able to play well through.

The unrelenting truth is that Nene will be 31 at the start of next season. If he gets hurt again, it probably won't be the result of freaky bad luck or whatever. Guys his age tend to get hurt and stay hurt for longer. This is what Kevin keeps coming back to. Sooner or later -- and quite possibly sooner -- Nene age and injury is going to catch up with Nene to the point that he's never going to be the player he once was.

[dobrojim]

Good points Fish

the only thing I would counter with as far as your point that other players
played in the Olys and bounced back is that probably most of them weren't hurt
to begin with, like Nene was. He really could have used the off-season to rest
and instead, played Intl ball.

But it's certainly true that at his age, injuries figure to be more frequent
and take longer to heal from. I know that from personal experience as
a runner not that I should compare myself to professional athletes.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I dreamed last night that the season ended and Ernie was fired. There were some typically bizarre dream details, but suffice it to say I was pleased.

fish, dreams can and do come true. I had a dream and it led to some actions which made a transaction come to fruition.

I haven't dreamed it but I would love for Ted to decide he wants to be a winner. Fire Ernie. Hire Troy Weaver. If Wittman doesn't remain, replace him with Dave Joerger--EJ wasn't Ernie's coach but Eddie lasted 7 years. I think Joerger needs to be the next coach and I trust Weaver to be the right guy to be the next GM. And to be honest, I would like to be a consulting scout for the team and tutor for the team members. If they have a chaplain, I would like to meet him and serve in some way.

The Wizards will win when they're aligned the right way. Put things in order and this team would turn around pretty fast. All I want is Joerger/Weaver and an enlightened team. Positives need to be built up. I post a lot of negative stuff but the players are just people who all need encouragement and direction as they're willing to ask and receive. Put the right GM and coach with what they already have in their hand, and the Wizards would win.

It starts with Firing Ernie.

[fishercob]

I dreamed last night that the season ended and Ernie was fired. There were some typically bizarre dream details, but suffice it to say I was pleased.

fish, dreams can and do come true. I had a dream and it led to some actions which made a transaction come to fruition.

CCJ got laid!

[AFM]

Haha. Yeah... via "a transaction"

[dobrojim]

that's not very nice

[hands11]

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort ... rder/false

Sort all the teams by Points Allowed and you see something that I find interesting. Wizards are 6th.

13 teams with the best PA are all winning teams except 2 teams. Washington and Philly.

Looking at PF and PA, Brooklyn is the closest match the Wizards.

Brooklyn PA 94.5 PF 95.8 Record 40-29 .580
Wizards PA 95.3 PF 92.9 Record 25-44 .362

Those numbers would say the Wizards are pretty damn close to being a good team. They just have to keep the players who are contributing to them being a good defensive team while improving their scoring efficiency. They need to add +4 in points. I think they are already improving in that area but they need to add to it by adding better depth so they can sustain if over a season.

Even without adding any players, their scoring efficiency should be better just with the new improved Wall and a healthy Beal.

From there, the next step up the ladder is getting into the 100 PA range. That gets you to the LAC level which is a .686 team.

Anyone have a way to breakdown the Wizards PF and PA by month so we can see anything trends.

[nate33]

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/sort/avgPointsAgainst/group/1/order/false

Sort all the teams by Points Allowed and you see something that I find interesting. Wizards are 6th.

13 teams with the best PA are all winning teams except 2 teams. Washington and Philly.

Looking at PF and PA, Brooklyn is the closest match the Wizards.

Brooklyn PA 94.5 PF 95.8 Record 40-29 .580
Wizards PA 95.3 PF 92.9 Record 25-44 .362

Those numbers would say the Wizards are pretty damn close to being a good team. They just have to keep the players who are contributing to them being a good defensive team while improving their scoring efficiency. They need to add +4 in points. I think they are already improving in that area but they need to add to it by adding better depth so they can sustain if over a season.

Even without adding any players, their scoring efficiency should be better just with the new improved Wall and a healthy Beal.

From there, the next step up the ladder is getting into the 100 PA range. That gets you to the LAC level which is a .686 team.

Anyone have a way to breakdown the Wizards PF and PA by month so we can see anything trends.

Small quibble: it's imprecise to use points scored and points allowed to rank the offensive and defensive abilities of the team. Those stats are influenced by pace. Brooklyn isn't a particularly good defensive team. They just play real slow. For a more accurate ranking, use team ORtg and DRtg, which is essentially points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. Basketball Reference has the numbers.

The Wizards rank 4th in defense and 30th on offense. There's no easy way to figure out how well they've played since Wall's return, but we do know the numbers with Wall on the court. When Wall is on the floor, the Wizards' ORtg is 104.2, which places them 20th in the league. With Wall on the floor, their DRtg is 101.5, which is 4th place overall. Their overall point differential with Wall on the floor would rank them as the 10th best team in the league.

[hands11]

I'm sure there is more then one way to break it down but in the end, doesn't PA and PF tell the end result ?

Sure pace plays into this, but its efficiency that is going to increase the PF if they are to keep the same pace and same defensive rating.

I just found it an interesting observation that when I sorted by PA, I found all the .500 or better teams in the top 13 teams except for 4. And in those top 13, only Washington and Philly had bad records.

Now we know Washington has been winning a lot more then what their record represents if they had this winning rate for the entire season. So I was wondering if there was a month by month breakdown on these numbers.

I was just using this stuff to see if it helped paint a picture of how close they are. But in the end, I probably come to the same conclusion I did before. They need depth.

They need a 6-11/7-0 long defensive center to back up Okafor - Withey or Dieng
They need a sharp shooting back up SG - CJ McCollum
They need a speedy small PG who can score - Pierre Jackson
They need a stretch 4 - Ryan Kelly

Longer term they need to replacement players for Nene and Okafor but they don't need them right now.

[Zonkerbl]

I wonder if tenth best in the league we can ever truly hope for.

I mean, who are we kidding? No one besides the Heat or OKC is winning a championship for the next five years. Why knock ourselves out?

[Ruzious]

I'm sure there is more then one way to break it down but in the end, doesn't PA and PF tell the end result ?

Sure pace plays into this, but its efficiency that is going to increase the PF if they are to keep the same pace and same defensive rating.

I just found it an interesting observation that when I sorted by PA, I found all the .500 or better teams in the top 13 teams except for 4. And in those top 13, only Washington and Philly had bad records.

Now we know Washington has been winning a lot more then what their record represents if they had this winning rate for the entire season. So I was wondering if there was a month by month breakdown on these numbers.

I was just using this stuff to see if it helped paint a picture of how close they are. But in the end, I probably come to the same conclusion I did before. They need depth.

They need a 6-11/7-0 long defensive center to back up Okafor - Withey or Dieng
They need a sharp shooting back up SG - CJ McCollum
They need a speedy small PG who can score - Pierre Jackson
They need a stretch 4 - Ryan KellyLonger term they need to replacement players for Nene and Okafor but they don't need them right now.

I like that plan and think it's doable with some luck and effort.

[nate33]

I'm sure there is more then one way to break it down but in the end, doesn't PA and PF tell the end result ?

Sure pace plays into this, but its efficiency that is going to increase the PF if they are to keep the same pace and same defensive rating.

I just found it an interesting observation that when I sorted by PA, I found all the .500 or better teams in the top 13 teams except for 4. And in those top 13, only Washington and Philly had bad records.

Now we know Washington has been winning a lot more then what their record represents if they had this winning rate for the entire season. So I was wondering if there was a month by month breakdown on these numbers.

I was just using this stuff to see if it helped paint a picture of how close they are. But in the end, I probably come to the same conclusion I did before. They need depth.

They need a 6-11/7-0 long defensive center to back up Okafor - Withey or Dieng
They need a sharp shooting back up SG - CJ McCollum
They need a speedy small PG who can score - Pierre Jackson
They need a stretch 4 - Ryan Kelly

Longer term they need to replacement players for Nene and Okafor but they don't need them right now.

If you are looking a total point differential, then pace isn't a huge deal. A slow pace would hurt the offense as much as it helps the defense. But if you are looking at just offense or just defense, than pace is a huge factor.

Consider Brooklyn. They allow just 94.6 points per game, which ranks them 5th, just ahead of Washington's 95.3 points per game. You would think that makes them a better defensive team. It doesn't. Brooklyn plays at a very slow pace, just 88.3 possessions per game. Washington averages 92.1 possessions. Brooklyn allows 106.0 points per 100 possessions which ranks them 16th overall. Washington allows 102.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 4th. In a typical 92 possession game, Brooklyn would give up 97.5 points. Washington would give up 94.2 points. Washington is clearly the better defensive team. Offensively, the opposite is true. Brooklyn scores 3 more points per game than Washington, but they score almost 8 more points per 100 possessions.

[hands11]

So Ruz

How do they get that done because though I want something like that, I have a hard time seeing how they get there.

McCollum may fall in the draft but Withey is rising.

I have seen Pierre not listed at all but then I have seen him listed in the second round.

I think it would be hard for the Wizards to get McCollum and one of Withey or Dieng. And if they add Ryan Kelly, they have to get ride of Singleton.

They only have 3 picks and I listed 4 players. I don't know if they can get all of that done. Actually it would be tough to get 3 or the 4. So if they prioritize, I think center is up there. And with a clogged up PF spot, the stretch 4 probably isn't.

Might be more reasonable to target:

McCollum
Withey/Dieng
Pierre/Wolters

Maybe some combination of future 2nds with Singleton can get one those high 2nd into a low first. But that could be wishful thinking.

[Zonkerbl]

I can't decide of Whitey reminds me more of Brad Miller or Cherokee Parks.

[Ruzious]

So Ruz

How do they get that done because though I want something like that, I have a hard time seeing how they get there.

McCollum may fall in the draft but Withey is rising.

I have seen Pierre not listed at all but then I have seen him listed in the second round.

I think it would be hard for the Wizards to get McCollum and one of Withey or Dieng. And if they add Ryan Kelly, they have to get ride of Singleton.

They only have 3 picks and I listed 4 players. I don't know if they can get all of that done. Actually it would be tough to get 3 or the 4. So if they prioritize, I think center is up there. And with a clogged up PF spot, the stretch 4 probably isn't.

Might be more reasonable to target:

McCollum
Withey/Dieng
Pierre/Wolters

Maybe some combination of future 2nds with Singleton can get one those high 2nd into a low first. But that could be wishful thinking.

I could very well be wrong, but I think there's a chance that McCollum and either Withey or Dieng slide a bit to the 16-20 group. If Washington could trade with Atlanta - the Hawks have 2 1sts (now rated 17th and 18th per NBAdraft.net). McCollum could slide because - small school stigma, missing most of season, tweener status (projected eventually as a PG but was much more a shooting guard), and seniors just tend to go low. He's not Lillard, for example - and doesn't have the explosive speed that Lillard has. NBAdraft.net has Dieng at 26 and Withey at 29. I think that's wrong for both, but it's indicative that at least 1 could very well be there at 18.

And then go Kelly with the 1st 2nd rounder and Pierre with the later 2nd.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can't decide of Whitey reminds me more of Brad Miller or Cherokee Parks.

I think he's a lot more like Parks, who was a very good shot blocker. Brad Miller was a great passer and a good high post shooter. He did not have the mobility that Withey has but Miller had a lot better post moves and was very crafty with the ball.

Withey is a whole like Cherokee Parks, but I think Jeff Withey is a better defender and an even better shot blocker than Parks and he's a little bit better finisher. Then again, Parks was a good finisher so I'm not sure.

[hands11]

I can't decide of Whitey reminds me more of Brad Miller or Cherokee Parks.

I think he's a lot more like Parks, who was a very good shot blocker. Brad Miller was a great passer and a good high post shooter. He did not have the mobility that Withey has but Miller had a lot better post moves and was very crafty with the ball.

Withey is a whole like Cherokee Parks, but I think Jeff Withey is a better defender and an even better shot blocker than Parks and he's a little bit better finisher. Then again, Parks was a good finisher so I'm not sure.

Withey is a serious slot blocker. Looking at Park's numbers, I don't see that.

Wow. He played for the Wizards. I don't really remember that to much. Maybe because it was for 13 games over 12 years ago.