Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[payitforward]

John Wall has had two outstanding games in a row. That's good. That's even exciting. That's all it is.

Two games. Lets see John be an improved player the rest of the season. I'm not asking for performances like the last 2 games. No point guard in the league produces at that level for that long a stretch. Just ongoing improvement.

As a reality check, understand that so far this season John's eFG% is lower than when he was a rookie. His TS% is lower than when he was a rookie. He's getting to the line less than when he was a rookie. He's turning it over more than when he was a rookie, stealing less than when he was a rookie, and rebounding less than when he was a rookie. He's improved his assists slightly -- .6 more assists per 40 minutes than when he was a rookie.

Love to see him become an outstanding NBA player. That will have to happen in the future.

But he did just have two terrific games in a row. That's good, that's two games good.

That's 2 more good games than Landry Fields had this year.

But but but... I wanted Landry Fields for his "veteran leadership."

[nate33]

What is different enough to actually take notice.

FT% is up. .829 vs .766 and has gone up each year.
AST% is way up from his prev two years. 44% vs 36%
AST/36 up 8.7 vs 7.9 and getting better each year.
DRrt is much better. 102 vs 110 and getting better each year.
WS/48 is up .074 vs .041
FG% up from .409 to .421
Pts/36 17.4 vs 15.6
Block% is up 2.1 vs 1.0

Good post hands11. To be honest, I didn't realize he had improved so much in portions of his game. The DRtg and AST% numbers are pretty nice.

I note that his per36 turnovers are up from 3.8 to 4.2, which is more than a 10% increase. However, when you look at TO%, it is up from 19.0 to 19.3, or just a 1.5% increase. Basically, Wall is handling the ball more and the increase in turnovers is really only due to the increased usage. His turnover problem hasn't actually gotten worse.

[tontoz]

It does seem like Wall has been making more really dumb turnovers this year than in the past. In the past it seems like more of them were due to attacking the basket.

Or it could just be that i am paying more attention to his turnovers now.

[DCZards]

What is more enlightening, however, is John's decoding of verbiage and terms like pace is different from him knowing the other team's plays. Wall thinks a lot about things while he's playing. That could be the cause of missed shots and turnovers--pressing or over thinking.

Regardless of all that I've said, Wall is working differently and he clearly as responding to media pressure and criticism in ways he had not previously. .

I don't think Wall is working differently. I think that the results of the work he's been putting in all along are starting to show up. There were some posters here claiming that Wall was NOT working on his game with no real justification for saying that.

Coaching is also a factor. Let's not forget that John's season started in mid-January so it's only been since then that the coaches have been able to critique and correct his in-game play this season.

I do agree that a lot of Wall's problems on offense stem from overthinking rather than letting his natural instincts take over.

[stevemcqueen1]

I have in the past accused Wall of not being too bright, AFM. I slandered him. I was wrong. I apologize to John Wall. "Wall Hater" CCJ's dumb accusation is refuted by Coach Wittman saying just the opposite.

What is more enlightening, however, is John's decoding of verbiage and terms like pace is different from him knowing the other team's plays. Wall thinks a lot about things while he's playing. That could be the cause of missed shots and turnovers--pressing or over thinking.

Regardless of all that I've said, Wall is working differently and he clearly as responding to media pressure and criticism in ways he had not previously. I hope he keeps it up.

AFM, you're right, that was really enlightening. Thanks for posting this article.

I've noticed a tendency in Wall to over think things too. He can be a natural PG and just go out and play but he'll get into stretches where he gets very mechanical and starts to struggle. He'll look rusty and shoot out of rhythm or force passes or get offensive fouls, etc.

Gary Payton was like that as a PG. He was very mechanical and cerebral. He didn't play just on instincts like Magic or Isaiah, just go down the court and react to whatever situation pops up. He'd bring the ball up thinking, "all right, I'm going to shoot it this possession to keep X defender honest so that next possession I'm going to pass the ball here in this lane, etc."

I also think Wall is sensitive to his own press. Which is good and bad. It's good that he's not tone deaf and hard headed. But it's bad that he'll be sensitive to negativity because that can be very unproductive.

I've been thinking for a while now that Wall was going to take a little longer to find his way and his identity as a player and a leader. Longer than fans expected and that's where the anxiety and frustration is coming from. I think that just in general, men who grow up without father figures and family stability often take a little longer to find their way. And we haven't been a nurturing environment for young players.

There has been a lot of trade Wall talk this year, and I've mostly been silent on the subject. I wouldn't trade Wall. I would stick with him and see this build through. I would expect him to be my PG for the next decade, that's the time frame I'm viewing his progress in. Things haven't been as smooth or happened as quickly as I had hoped and Wall has flaws. The temptation to just scrap it all and start from scratch again is going to be powerful when the team is struggling to get off the ground. But the upside is just so high with Wall. He is so talented. The reward for sticking with him while he develops is worth it even if the process is slow.

[Nivek]

What is different enough to actually take notice.

FT% is up. .829 vs .766 and has gone up each year.
AST% is way up from his prev two years. 44% vs 36%
AST/36 up 8.7 vs 7.9 and getting better each year.
DRrt is much better. 102 vs 110 and getting better each year.
WS/48 is up .074 vs .041
FG% up from .409 to .421
Pts/36 17.4 vs 15.6
Block% is up 2.1 vs 1.0

Good post hands11. To be honest, I didn't realize he had improved so much in portions of his game. The DRtg and AST% numbers are pretty nice.

I note that his per36 turnovers are up from 3.8 to 4.2, which is more than a 10% increase. However, when you look at TO%, it is up from 19.0 to 19.3, or just a 1.5% increase. Basically, Wall is handling the ball more and the increase in turnovers is really only due to the increased usage. His turnover problem hasn't actually gotten worse.

No, it's really not a good post because it's cherry-picking.

drtg is a bad stat, as has been discussed several times on the board. It's based on estimating how many stops a player is responsible for, and in-depth tracking has shown those estimations to be inaccurate.

Win Shares is based on ortg (a good stat) and drtg (a bad one) combined with team wins. The team is better this season than it was his rookie year.

FG% is a waste of time because it doesn't account for the 3pt shot. Plus, the improvement in FG% is minor, AND the improved FG% is significantly below average.

Pts are up because he's shooting more.

Turnover percentage is another bad measure. Wall's tov% is "about the same" as previous seasons because he's shooting more often. Turnovers are a problem. And the problem is worse this season.

Block percentage is up? I mean, that's nice, but nobody wants a PG for his shot blocking.

His rebounding is down.

Understand, I'm not ripping Wall. He's been terrific the past couple games. I'm still hoping he turns into a top-shelf PG. But he still has a ways to go. Cherry picking some stats and proclaiming he's better doesn't make it so, unfortunately.

[Wallbeliever]

Very small sample size but if Wall continued to play as he has for the previous 5 games all season he would be :

# 12 in PPG (19.6)
# 5 in APG (8.0)
#3 in SPG (2.2)
# 6 in TOPG (3.2)

while shooting 45% from the field and 82% from the FT line.

The big question is if this is sustainable? If Wall can sustain this on a consistent basis he will prove to be one of the best PG in the league.

[DCZards]

There has been a lot of trade Wall talk this year, and I've mostly been silent on the subject. I wouldn't trade Wall. I would stick with him and see this build through. I would expect him to be my PG for the next decade, that's the time frame I'm viewing his progress in. Things haven't been as smooth or happened as quickly as I had hoped and Wall has flaws. The temptation to just scrap it all and start from scratch again is going to be powerful when the team is struggling to get off the ground. But the upside is just so high with Wall. He is so talented. The reward for sticking with him while he develops is worth it even if the process is slow.

Agree. There's been a fixation on making some sort of final ruling on John's future based on this, his third year, because that's been the yardstick used with other players. That was always a false barometer, imo, because players/people evolve and develop at different rates. Add to that the fact that Wall missed the first half of the season.

Wall is clearly working on his game and improving, and, outside of maybe Westbrook, he's the most physically gifted PG in the NBA. I'd be very careful about trading a player with John's upside...especially given the tremendous potential of a Wall-Beal backcourt.

[Nivek]

Very small sample size but if Wall continued to play as he has for the previous 5 games all season he would be :

# 12 in PPG (19.6)
# 5 in APG (8.0)
#3 in SPG (2.2)
# 6 in TOPG (3.2)

while shooting 45% from the field and 82% from the FT line.

The big question is if this is sustainable? If Wall can sustain this on a consistent basis he will prove to be one of the best PG in the league.

If Wall can sustain at the level of the last two games, then pay him the max, give him that 5th year and get ready for a TON of winning.

[Nivek]

There has been a lot of trade Wall talk this year, and I've mostly been silent on the subject. I wouldn't trade Wall. I would stick with him and see this build through. I would expect him to be my PG for the next decade, that's the time frame I'm viewing his progress in. Things haven't been as smooth or happened as quickly as I had hoped and Wall has flaws. The temptation to just scrap it all and start from scratch again is going to be powerful when the team is struggling to get off the ground. But the upside is just so high with Wall. He is so talented. The reward for sticking with him while he develops is worth it even if the process is slow.

Agree. There's been a fixation on making some sort of final ruling on John's future based on this, his third year, because that's been the yardstick used with other players. That was always a false barometer, imo, because players/people evolve and develop at different rates. Add to that the fact that Wall missed the first half of the season.

I mostly agree. I've been getting concerned, but have been thinking all season that they don't have to make a decision on him until the 2014 trade deadline. It's his 3rd season, but he's still just 22 years old. Different studies have pegged peak performance at different ages, but the general range is about 25-27. There's no rush.

[nate33]

If Wall can sustain at the level of the last two games, then pay him the max, give him that 5th year and get ready for a TON of winning.

25 points, 12 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 3.0 turnovers, 8.5 FTA's, .602 TS%

Yeah, that would be pretty nice.

[nate33]

Agree. There's been a fixation on making some sort of final ruling on John's future based on this, his third year, because that's been the yardstick used with other players. That was always a false barometer, imo, because players/people evolve and develop at different rates. Add to that the fact that Wall missed the first half of the season.

Wall is clearly working on his game and improving, and, outside of maybe Westbrook, he's the most physically gifted PG in the NBA. I'd be very careful about trading a player with John's upside...especially given the tremendous potential of a Wall-Beal backcourt.

I'd definitely feel much more at ease if Wall finishes the season strong. I did not like at all the fact that this season had looked like the worst of his career. Yeah, he probably deserves an asterisk for his first 15-20 games back after the long layoff, but that grace period is over and it's time for him to start showing some improvement. Until a few games ago, there was no improvement at all.

Hopefully these last two games are an indication of what's to come. He doesn't need to have a brilliant game every night, but we definitely need to see some big games like that more frequently. Until the last two games, he hadn't had a single super-star caliber game all season.

[pancakes3]

To be fair, even the ones clamoring for trade aren't looking to dump him - just looking to get value back instead of giving up a max contract down the road.

As for Wall's improvement? Blatche's late april run has jaded me. I need to see this streak carry on into next season before I believe that Wall's changed his stripes. However, I will admit that learning how to change gears is tougher than it looks for us laymen. The NBA game is so fast, how do you distinguish between fast and really really fast? Then learn how to be deceptively fast like Manu?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

What is more enlightening, however, is John's decoding of verbiage and terms like pace is different from him knowing the other team's plays. Wall thinks a lot about things while he's playing. That could be the cause of missed shots and turnovers--pressing or over thinking.

Regardless of all that I've said, Wall is working differently and he clearly as responding to media pressure and criticism in ways he had not previously. .

I don't think Wall is working differently. I think that the results of the work he's been putting in all along are starting to show up. There were some posters here claiming that Wall was NOT working on his game with no real justification for saying that.

Coaching is also a factor. Let's not forget that John's season started in mid-January so it's only been since then that the coaches have been able to critique and correct his in-game play this season.

I do agree that a lot of Wall's problems on offense stem from overthinking rather than letting his natural instincts take over.

I never said he wasn't a hard worker. I've accused him of not working smartly. That is derisive. I came to that conclusion because I didn't see results and assumed he worked on some things and not others. Again I could end up owing him an apology, we will see. DCZ, my question would be why are the results just now showing up in this third season?

If coaching and critiquing and John's effort are starting to come together it's all good, regardless. The time is now and let's look forward to bigger and brighter. Being analytical and somewhat cynical, I say it could be that pressure got Wall focused intently on things people have been trying to say along. Communication goes two ways. The sender can give a message but the receiver has to be receptive to get it.

John starting in mid-January of his third season really should not factor in IMO, but everyone learns differently. I just am glad to see that Wittman respects his intelligence. John has a "talent" (for learning other team's sets) "that you can't teach" is high praise. I appreciate this coach and Wall's progress.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

To be fair, even the ones clamoring for trade aren't looking to dump him - just looking to get value back instead of giving up a max contract down the road.

As for Wall's improvement? Blatche's late april run has jaded me. I need to see this streak carry on into next season before I believe that Wall's changed his stripes. However, I will admit that learning how to change gears is tougher than it looks for us laymen. The NBA game is so fast, how do you distinguish between fast and really really fast? Then learn how to be deceptively fast like Manu?

+1


Good points, pancakes3.

I don't think John Wall is putting on an April Fools display FWIW. Time will tell if he keeps this up.

[DCZards]

John starting in mid-January of his third season really should not factor in IMO, but everyone learns differently.

Anytime an injury stops you from practicing and improving your skills for almost 2 months, or from getting the in-game, on-court experience that you need as a young player, that's a setback that shouldn't be underestimated.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I have in the past accused Wall of not being too bright, AFM. I slandered him. I was wrong. I apologize to John Wall. "Wall Hater" CCJ's dumb accusation is refuted by Coach Wittman saying just the opposite.

What is more enlightening, however, is John's decoding of verbiage and terms like pace is different from him knowing the other team's plays. Wall thinks a lot about things while he's playing. That could be the cause of missed shots and turnovers--pressing or over thinking.

Regardless of all that I've said, Wall is working differently and he clearly as responding to media pressure and criticism in ways he had not previously. I hope he keeps it up.

AFM, you're right, that was really enlightening. Thanks for posting this article.

I've noticed a tendency in Wall to over think things too. He can be a natural PG and just go out and play but he'll get into stretches where he gets very mechanical and starts to struggle. He'll look rusty and shoot out of rhythm or force passes or get offensive fouls, etc.

Gary Payton was like that as a PG. He was very mechanical and cerebral. He didn't play just on instincts like Magic or Isaiah, just go down the court and react to whatever situation pops up. He'd bring the ball up thinking, "all right, I'm going to shoot it this possession to keep X defender honest so that next possession I'm going to pass the ball here in this lane, etc."

I also think Wall is sensitive to his own press. Which is good and bad. It's good that he's not tone deaf and hard headed. But it's bad that he'll be sensitive to negativity because that can be very unproductive.

I've been thinking for a while now that Wall was going to take a little longer to find his way and his identity as a player and a leader. Longer than fans expected and that's where the anxiety and frustration is coming from. I think that just in general, men who grow up without father figures and family stability often take a little longer to find their way. And we haven't been a nurturing environment for young players.

There has been a lot of trade Wall talk this year, and I've mostly been silent on the subject. I wouldn't trade Wall. I would stick with him and see this build through. I would expect him to be my PG for the next decade, that's the time frame I'm viewing his progress in. Things haven't been as smooth or happened as quickly as I had hoped and Wall has flaws. The temptation to just scrap it all and start from scratch again is going to be powerful when the team is struggling to get off the ground. But the upside is just so high with Wall. He is so talented. The reward for sticking with him while he develops is worth it even if the process is slow.

Great post, stevemcqueen1. (Papillon and Bullitt are among my favorite movies BTW)

I think this coach is a great father figure. What I get from my father is something my mom could not teach me. Good fathers know how to stay calm under fire and how to bounce back from defeat. They can also teach you more about enduring hardship with your head up. Having keen situational awareness and confidence are things that take time for some to develop and maintain, if they ever get there at all. I don't know some things that my 80+ year-old dad knows. He's really helped me a lot with love, guidance, emotional, and psychological support to get over things that took place since my divorce. For John to be a young man in this at times, cold, tough, world without a dad -- that's a lot to overcome.

One thing I do like is the fight is there with Wall. That joker is tough, and I love that about him. There is no quit in John Wall, and this team has been losing quite a while. Of course he's got to be under some pretty extreme mental duress over the losing. I think John has to see where his weaknesses need to be addressed and it sounds like he's doing that. Hopefully, he doesn't pay too much credit to his critics beyond extracting motivation to prove them wrong. More than that, hopefully he fully loves himself and respects his own hard work and can accept himself good and bad. John needs to EXPECT THE BEST.

Wall's longevity with the Wizards is IMO above all a business decision. He wants his max money. I say keep him if he is worth it or don't if there's another way to go. But before there is any decision on the future, let's keep coaching him up and supporting him the right way.

I am encouraged by what I am learning, stevemcqueen. You're right about John Wall taking a while longer and to me that's not a big deal so long as he gets there.

[payitforward]

John Wall has had two outstanding games in a row. That's good. That's even exciting. That's all it is.

Two games. Lets see John be an improved player the rest of the season. I'm not asking for performances like the last 2 games. No point guard in the league produces at that level for that long a stretch. Just ongoing improvement.

As a reality check, understand that so far this season John's eFG% is lower than when he was a rookie. His TS% is lower than when he was a rookie. He's getting to the line less than when he was a rookie. He's turning it over more than when he was a rookie, stealing less than when he was a rookie, and rebounding less than when he was a rookie. He's improved his assists slightly -- .6 more assists per 40 minutes than when he was a rookie.

Love to see him become an outstanding NBA player. That will have to happen in the future.

But he did just have two terrific games in a row. That's good, that's two games good.

Some of your statements are wrong and others are misleading.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ljo01.html

His TS is better but pretty much the same. .496 vs 494
eFG is slightly down but pretty much the same .425 vs 427
FTA/36 are up but pretty much the same. 5.5 vs 5.4

All those number are pretty much the same and could be better or worse a game at a time because they are so close.

What is different enough to actually take notice.

FT% is up. .829 vs .766 and has gone up each year.
AST% is way up from his prev two years. 44% vs 36%
AST/36 up 8.7 vs 7.9 and getting better each year.
DRrt is much better. 102 vs 110 and getting better each year.
WS/48 is up .074 vs .041
FG% up from .409 to .421
Pts/36 17.4 vs 15.6
Block% is up 2.1 vs 1.0

So your reality check wasn't really a reality check.

Wall clearly have room to grow more but if you look at the numbers, his game actually is getting better since he was a rookie. Clearly he is a better FT shooter. He is also clearly a better defender. Those things should not go unnoticed.

So... the above strikes me as kind of nasty and to no purpose. The numbers I quoted were the ones I saw; they probably didn't include the last 2 games (@12% of his total minutes this year?) -- yet the ones you quote aren't particularly different.

He's improved his Drtg (but his Ortg is worse. That's John Wall development so far.

The good news is, the shooting, smart on the court, and managing the game stuff is what we just saw vastly improved those last two games.

Duh. Yes, as I said, he had two outstanding games. And they are virtually entirely responsible (given his few minutes this year) for the improvements you make a big deal of.

I think Walls light bulb might finally be going on.

And I think he just had two outstanding games -- as I said.

Which of those two statements has empirical support?

John Wall is like a penny stock on this forum. One week he's terrible, trade him. The next week someone posts about "the transformation" of his game (after the evidence of two outings!)

Reality check: John Wall may "become an outstanding NBA player. That will have to happen in the future."

You really disagree with that? Should I quote you a week or so ago on Wall.

[GhostsOfGil]

I'd definitely feel much more at ease if Wall finishes the season strong. I did not like at all the fact that this season had looked like the worst of his career. Yeah, he probably deserves an asterisk for his first 15-20 games back after the long layoff, but that grace period is over and it's time for him to start showing some improvement. Until a few games ago, there was no improvement at all.

But Wall was playing pretty good ball then. In January (11 games), he was averaging nearly 20 points and 10 assists per 36. But just like in prior years, teams learn how easy it is to slow him down. Pack in the paint and watch his turnovers go up, and his efficiency go down.

Wall had an abismal February, but his March stats have been solid. Hopefully it's a sign of him learning... but we've seen this before. Last year his impact fluctuated so much month to month. Is it a mental thing? Is it opposing teams scouting him? Or is it him learning to change his game to be effective when teams have a game plan.

Don't really have a point to this rambling, just thinking out loud.

[Knighthonor]

Well John wall wanted a new shooter in the draft,
What could he want now in this draft? How about they let him pick?