Lead-off batters, and Bautista

[Hendrix]

I'm kind of curious on people's thoughts on this.

This summer we went out and got a #1, and #2 batters in Reyes, and Melky.

Jose Reyes generally puts up a very good batting average (.291 career), and alright obp (.342 career), doesn't get a lot of dingers, but gets a lot of xbh's on balls in play. and steals some bases.

Melky on his career has put up good batting averages as well, with an alright obp (.338 career), and hits a decent amount of extra base hits.


These types of players generally have a lot of value.

However, my question is, do they have a lot of value to the Blue Jays or would we be better with guys who just slapped some singles and took a lot of walks with little ability to steal or get xbh's on balls in play.

Jose Bautista since his transformation has been all about walks, and HR's. In 1737 PA's he's reached base on 674 times; however 415 of those times he either his a HR or got a walk, and only 259 times where he put the ball in play for a hit. Encarnacion last year played a simliar type of game as well.

As mentioned earlier, our 2 leadoff batters generally get their value from xbh's on balls in play, high batting average, and stealing bases. However none of those things really matter if Bautista or Encarnacion hit a HR, Walk, or get out. If Bautista hits a HR it doesn't really matter if the player ahead of him got a walk or hit a double then stole 3rd. It's still 2 runs anyways. And, if Bautista gets a walk it doesn't really matter if the guy on base hit a double, or got a walk, because we are still going to have a guy on 1st and 2nd anyways.

Just curious on peoples thoughts on this. The areas where our leadoff batters shine (xbh's, avg, stolen basses) don't really have much benifit to Baustia. And the areas that would really benifit Bautista (OBP) isn't an area where our 2 leadoff batters are particularly strong for leadoff batters (though not bad by any any means).

I'm very excited about the season, and not trying to be neagtive but rather just generate some discussion. Maybe guys like Shin-soo Choo, and Youk would have been decent recent targets for #1 and #2 guys?

[s e n s i]

its an intriguing question for sure, but I don't think you can go wrong with reyes/cabrera at the top of your order, tallying a lot of gappers and such. especially with a decent contact guy like bonifacio who's fast as hell hitting 9th, I'm sure reyes will cash him in on the reg, and likewise for cabrera. those xbh will generate some big rbi while bautista is standing on deck.

[Hendrix]

its an intriguing question for sure, but I don't think you can go wrong with reyes/cabrera at the top of your order, tallying a lot of gappers and such. especially with a decent contact guy like bonifacio who's fast as hell hitting 9th, I'm sure reyes will cash him in on the reg, and likewise for cabrera. those xbh will generate some big rbi while bautista is standing on deck.

I think you are right that there is some value in having a leadoff guy that can drive in runs, and that needs to factor in, but I don't think it's much value, or as improtant of value as having the heart of your batting order drive in runs.

Statistically your #1 hitter only comes to the plate with batters on base 36% of the times. The first at bat of the game there is nobody on for him, and after that he's got poor obp guys like JPA before him. There's probably some value in it, but I would think optimizing your production from your power bats would be far more important. I'd rather see Jose, and Encarnacion get 135 RBI's instead of 100, than see our leadoff guy get 75RBI's instead of 65.

[rbp246]

There will also be a lot of opportunities for Jose to get sac flies with Reyes and Melky at the top of the order.

[Kapono]

Another thing to keep in mind is that if Reyes is at first theres the chance that his presence buys Joey Bats or EE an extra fastball.

If we had a slow lead off man, the pitcher would not be worried about stolen bases.

[b0na f1de]

I think a .340 obp is a bit better than alright though, even for leadoff hitters. Only 70 players qualified for that last year, and I'm sure they're pretty **** difficult to get. We pretty much stumbled upon Reyes and Cabrera because of a firesale and a positive test, so I'm busy just being happy about that. A couple Shin Shoo Choo's would be better, but the team starts Lind at DH for Godsakes.

I wonder how many singles Bautista/Encarnacion would have to hit to offset whatever negative may come from attempting steals and stretching singles/doubles in front of them?

[Hendrix]

Another thing to keep in mind is that if Reyes is at first theres the chance that his presence buys Joey Bats or EE an extra fastball.

If we had a slow lead off man, the pitcher would not be worried about stolen bases.

Should other teams really care about guys stealing when Bautista's at bat though? And should we be attempting to steal in the first place?

I mean I remember a lot of us bitching when someone tried to steal/got thrown out while Bautista was at bat because there's not a lot of point in stealing when Bautista's at bat.

If a guy steals 2nd base and Bautista gets a walk or a HR it doesn't effect anything. All it really dose is give the opponents a chance to throw him out. So no real upside and only downside.

I'de imagine the best course of action for opponents would be to just pitch to him normally without extra fastballs.

[s e n s i]

Another thing to keep in mind is that if Reyes is at first theres the chance that his presence buys Joey Bats or EE an extra fastball.

If we had a slow lead off man, the pitcher would not be worried about stolen bases.

Should other teams really care about guys stealing when Bautista's at bat though? And should we be attempting to steal in the first place?

teams always care when their opponent attempts to steal and they should, regardless of who is at the plate, as it provides a chance to erase a mistake and get that out. and yes, of course we should try and steal second, especially with reyes on and no one out (not every time obviously). if he does take second safely, several actions are possible that could advance him to third where he can then score by sac fly (even shallower ones too), fielder's choice, base hit, squeeze play, wild pitch, error, balk, etc.

I mean I remember a lot of us bitching when someone tried to steal/got thrown out while Bautista was at bat because there's not a lot of point in stealing when Bautista's at bat.

i think you're referring to the one occurrence when lawrie got gunned trying to steal home with the bases juiced, 2 outs and bautista at bat. that was worth bitching about for sure because it was an incredibly boneheaded decision. other than that, i can't clearly recall another instance when we were pissed for a runner getting gunned with bautista at the plate. usually we were pissed about the unconsciously aggressive baserunning headed by the **** farrell himself.

If a guy steals 2nd base and Bautista gets a walk or a HR it doesn't effect anything. All it really dose is give the opponents a chance to throw him out. So no real upside and only downside.

jose bautista doesn't only hit HRs or walk. that appears to be what you are assuming here. 2 out of every 3 of bautista's hits the past 3 seasons have stayed in the park. 45% of all his hits have been singles, which would now cash reyes or cabrera easily as they'd often be in scoring position from their xbh or from stealing second. that's half the time man, and those singles wouldn't cash slower guys like choo or youkilis. the doubles that bautista hits would now guarantee an rbi with the speed of reyes on 1st. those singles would get reyes to 3rd where again, he can score by sac fly, error, wild pitch, fielder's choice if there is less than two outs. also not to mention that reyes swiping second takes away the possibility of a DP.

66% of bautista's hits stay in the park, so i'd say we're pretty damn lucky to have a gap-hunting speedster like reyes on the bases, and that's at least more or equally as valuable as a high-OBP guy in front of bautista instead imo. i'd rather not heavily rely on the long-ball as our main source of run production.

also RE - bautista walking with reyes on second. if bautista walks, then it's the same thing if he were to walk with choo or youkilis on first, except worse, because now you don't have that speed at second and the guarantee that ANY base hit would score that run.

[Hendrix]

teams always care when their opponent attempts to steal and they should, regardless of who is at the plate, as it provides a chance to erase a mistake and get that out. and yes, of course we should try and steal second, especially with reyes on and no one out (not every time obviously). if he does take second safely, several actions are possible that could advance him to third where he can then score by sac fly (even shallower ones too), fielder's choice, base hit, wild pitch, error, balk, etc.

jose bautista doesn't only hit HRs or walk. that appears to be what you are assuming here. 2 out of every 3 of bautista's hits the past 3 seasons have stayed in the park. 45% of all his hits have been singles, which would now cash reyes or cabrera easily as they'd often be in scoring position from their xbh or from stealing second. that's half the time man, and those singles wouldn't cash slower guys like choo or youkilis. the doubles that bautista hits would now guarantee an rbi with the speed of reyes on 1st. those singles would get reyes to 3rd where again, he can score by sac fly, error, wild pitch, fielder's choice if there is less than two outs. also not to mention that reyes swiping second takes away the possibility of a DP.

66% of bautista's hits stay in the park, so i'd say we're pretty damn lucky to have a gap-hunting speedster like reyes on the bases, and that's at least more or equally as valuable as a high-OBP guy in front of bautista instead imo.

I'm not assuming he only walks or Homers; however, they do make up a pretty significant portion of his PA's, and it's important.

Bautista only gets on base with a hit 14% of the time (For comparisons sake Reyes does it 27% of the time). That is pretty significant.

He hits a homerun or walks 24% of the time.

So, ~63% of his positive resulting PA's (hits or walks) end up in a result that is not benifited by a stolen base.

Generally speaking I believe stats guys have concluded that stolen bases are only beneficial if you are successful stealing on 75-80% of attempts. That is for an average batter/situation though, and Bautista is not a' normal' batter because he only gets a single/double/triple in 37% of his positive plate appearances. So, I believe to justify stealing you would need to be succesfull in far more of your steal attempts.... Like 95%.

I don't think it makes sense to steak in front of Bautista because so many of his outcomes of his at bats are not benifited by stealing, and so few outcomes of his at bats are benifited by stealing. It's not really worth taking the risk getting thrown out and losing a run if he gets a HR when only 14% of his at bats are singles/doubles/triples.

[s e n s i]

walks and HR's should not be grouped together.

because it's more beneficial to have reyes on base when bautista takes a walk, than if choo or youkilis were on base instead.

and again, having reyes on 2nd or stealing 2nd does eliminate the chance for a DP.

it essentially all comes down to percentages for each specific action/scenario. and i suck at math so i'm not gonna touch that.

and fwiw, it's actually 18% of bautista's at-bats that result in a hit that stays in the park. 15% for plate appearances. 9% of his at-bats result in a jack. 7% for plate appearances.

[TheseSicklyKeys]

Which ever way the value swings, if it does indeed swings either way based on these factors, is almost certainty insignificant. Even if value did lean to the negative, the likely insignificant decrease would be mitigated by the other likely less insignificant varieties of value that Reyes and Melky bring that are insulted from Bautista.

[Hendrix]

I calculated him getting on base from a hit 14% of the time using the last 3 years of data.

[s e n s i]

I calculated him getting on base from a hit 14% of the time using the last 3 years of data.

1414 at-bats the last 3 years, 1737 plate appearances
259 hits that stayed in the park

259/1414 = 18%
259/1737 = 15%

if my carculations are correct. but it's not a real significant difference however you look at it. again, it just boils down to the amount of times reyes ends up scoring from runs that are "manufactured" as opposed to the amount of times bautista goes deep after the PA's that make up the ~0.50 points difference in OBP from youk or choo. too many different situations and actions to really know for sure and you gotta go really deep to get a conclusive answer, but if a year ago you forced me to choose between reyes/melky or choo/youk to be our 1-2 hitters, i'd take the former but that's just my personal preference. more exciting more swag, probably equal impact all things considered.

[distracted]

Bautista walking so much is one of the reasons I think Melky should bat fifth. Put Boneface second as he has a reasonably high OBP, and let Melky bang in Bautista and Encarnacion when they walk.

This optimizes the strengths of both Emilio (decent OBP) and Melky (high average). It's going to suck having Lind come up so often with men on base.

[4u2nv]

I think it will help Bautista immensely. With Reyes on base it complicates the situation for the pitcher. He'll be afraid of Reyes stealing and even more afraid of Bautista's bat. In situations like that, one would expect less breaking balls which can only benefit the batter. If I were the pitcher I would be scared **** knowing that Reyes can run on me any second but I can't let Bautista see a good pitch. It kind of takes a lot of pitches out of the equation. Would a pitcher try to test Reyes' foot speerad by throwing a curveball or change up? Even with Melky on base it can only help Bautista. I can't see a negative with anyone getting on base with one of the best hitters in baseball trying to get him home. Bautista is known for his power and walks but the hits he gets are all hard hits and there's nothing wrong with advancing the runner with a single or double with another power bat on deck.

[satyr9]

My opinion is that from a Beanesean perspective you're probably right. Don't pay for doubles when you're built to put guys on in front of homeruns. Now, I don't think it's that easy to just get the cheaper OBP. But, that implies that you have too many large holes and have to plug them with the cheapest bargain you can find, which really isn't the model the Jays were going on this offseason (although this is kinda beside the point).

Hypothetically, instead of Reyes and Melky, let's say the Jays took Carrol and Span from the Twins in a deal (positional is an issue that has to be considered too. Viable alternatives to Reyes from an OBP perspective aren't great). Maybe you want to do Carrol and Choo or something that's better, but Choo wasn't exactly a cheap get (they got Bauer in return regardless of what CIN gave up) so my initial version is cheaper in salary and trade cost. They have higher 5 year OBPs and you're not paying for too much extra with either.

So on its face that's pretty obviously not better, especially when you consider you'd be emulating a pretty awful team last year. And really here's why I think that is without much maths. Once you're beyond .360ish OBP you're either just a top 5 player in the league(and likely a 3/4 guy or M.Trout) or it's a career (unpredictable) season. The .380/.400 career guy pretty much doesn't exist IMO. If such players were available and significantly cheaper, I'd say that player is a superior value for the Jays than Reyes/Melky because of the HR specific power in the 3/4.

But, if you're limited in your expectations to .355-.360 expected at best, it's simply too marginal an upgrade in extra runs to drive in to negate the rest. The consistent extra 5-15 points of OBP to sacrfice XBH and/or speed just isn't worth it, even if you've got the top two HR hitters ever hitting 3rd and 4th. Absolute best case scenario, two totally healthy guys at 750 PA each jumping 20 points of OBP over Jose/Melky is 30 more times on base combined over a season. Don't get me wrong, that's a lot when you're already in very good company. I believe elite RBI percentages are about 20%, so best case scenario, those 30 extra times equal 6 extra runs (this is an extreme best case example remember and doesn't attempt to factor in whether slugging and speed could improve the RBI percentage in any way). Give half that again for EE behind him and you've pretty much maxed out at an extra 1.0 WAR for as close to perfect and cost-effective OBP as you can get upgraded over Jose/Melky (assuming they're both good of course).

I think you'll take the extra slugging for all the chances you get knocking in the 7/8/9 guys with a double. If 1/2 hitters are even 1% better at RBI% due to power and see only the minimum on base a year (200?) you're taking 3 of 9 runs back right there and that's best vs. worst case IMO. Also, the extra sac fly chances by being on 3rd with less than two out (not sure how I'd look that up), and everything to do with speed.

The speed part, which is harder to quantify, wouldn't be about steals so much to me, it's staying out of double plays, getting home on weaker singles, or taking an extra base on mistakes. I think it's easy enough to admit that Reyes' speed is likely worth 1 WAR or more than a Carroll/Eckstein/??? type, even if you've got the Babe and Hank hitting 3/4.

This does sidestep how much cheaper those guys are though, but it's not like Melky was expensive. Reyes is so hard to quantify in value as just OBP/SLG/SPD because of his positional scarcity and consistent elite history. I'd take Reyes/Choo and probably Reyes/Span over Reyes/Melky, but those are actually more rather than less expensive options because you had to trade for them as well.

Very nice topic.

[Chevy Chase]

I'm not going to get all saver like Sat, but my analysis tells me that Joey ans EE won't walk nearly as much as in the past because of the protection that the stronger lineup will afford them. With one of Melky or Reyes on base and taking a big lead off, I would guess that Jose see more fastballs than the junk he's seen over the past two seasons. Regardless of the potential for double plays, who would put Jose on base to face EE?

[Hendrix]

Thanks for the write up Satyr. I agree with pretty much everything you wrote, and some interesting tidbits in there.


Hypothetically speaking what about if Choo/ Youk was a possibility without giving up Escobar?

[satyr9]

Thanks for the write up Satyr. I agree with pretty much everything you wrote, and some interesting tidbits in there.


Hypothetically speaking what about if Choo/ Youk was a possibility without giving up Escobar?

The thing is we're talking about how to get Jays specific improvements over Reyes/Melky at the same or better price to help elsewhere too? Choo, who I like a ton and would take #2 over Melky in a heartbeat, was very expensive. Not so much to CIN, unless you really like JeterJr. (can't even remember his complicated name right now), but for what CLE got back. And he was/is? one year from FA too. But let's assume he's what you spent Reyes' stuff on for LF, you're keeping Escobar instead of Lind, and now you need a DH with the Melky money. I think I'm following your idea for Choo/Youk instead right?

Well first, If it's Youk, he won't end up leading off, 'cause Managers just don't do that, nor is Choo/Youk likely. You'll get Lawrie or Rasmus or Escobar up top and Youk hitting 5/6. Also, which Youk? The first 3-4 years of his career I think he would've been a great top 1/2 in the order guy. The middle he's mashing too so he's a middle of the order, and based on what I saw of him last year, I don't think you're getting either ever again, although it wouldn't be the first time going to the Yankees gave some a little extra pep in their step for a year or two. Still, just a personal bias on Youkilis would be an easy pass for me. But, a Choo/Youk 1/2 could work, I just don't think it's cheap enough to justify as a downgrade on Reyes overall.

Here's why I think AA pays the price he does for Reyes. If you're bargain shopping, looking for guys who just get on base to facilitate HR driven RBIs for Jose and Bautista, just sort league leaders by reverse ISO (the worst) and look for high OBP. Yunel's actually the right kind of cost efficient player, but he sucked so hard last year the eye-black thing made it impossible to wait for a rebound.

So you want a change, you're willing to make multiple changes so positional isn't that important. Still, what you notice is, if you're looking for that type of player, the most common and acceptable are mid to high tier middle infielders (Carroll, Furcal, Scutaro, Andrus). If you're looking for just OBP in front of Bautista/EE, you're likely going to decide it's better to find a SS that fills the spot instead of DH (negating Youk or a second OF, etc...)

Once you're at SS, you look at the available options and the prices are steep all the way around. TEX wanted a ransom for Andrus. Scutaro made big bank (admittedly less than Reyes, but he is less than Reyes). So if you have to pay the premium, then I can see paying the monstrous premium for Reyes' fairly unique attributes. Elite OBP and speed at SS and he's hardly some slap hitter. There's quite literally no one in his class at his position right now IMO. Tulo for sure, probably higher even, but the injuries are just so persistent with him. Hanley used to be. I don't know what happened to him, but he fell in a hurry. Rollins doesn't get on base enough anymore. Andrus just isn't in his class as a hitter. Maybe Desmond is, but honestly I didn't see the Nationals all that much last year for me to say too much about his breakout. If there's anyone I'm missing who deserves to be in the conversation I'd be surprised.

So there are obviously cheaper options for close to the same sum of stats that you get from Reyes, but you're paying for the fact you get them all out of your SS. If you go Youk instead, saving a bunch of trade value and salary, then your next upgrade is still at SS. In this I think Reyes solidifies the top and middle of the lineup and makes a deadline deal easier, because there's the highest number of options available. If you're coming up a bit short and Yunel is the culprit, how likely is it you're getting an upgrade without overpaying by an ungodly amount.

Once you get to the point where one of the 1/2 upgrades is preferably Reyes (you're gonna plug SS at some point, and you're going to pay too much, so pay for an actual difference maker), then you're filling the other spot as cheap as you can, 'cause Reyes is not cheap in any sense of the term.

And IMO, Melky was easy for AA, 'cause he's actually the guy you're talking about. He's not particularly fast, but he'll snag 10-15. He's not really much in the way of power (well he never was 'til the last two juiced years) and of all the regressions he might have, the power is easily the most likely IMO (well he won't .390 OBP either). The salary he got is paying for the regression anyway. IMO AA is looking for .320-.340 OBP and .410-.425 SLG with a dozen HR and SBs out of Melky. Would .350-.360 OBP be better? Sure, and he's proven he can do that in his good years so you've paid for what you need at minimum in a guy who might outperform.

In summary, I think AA's thinking is similar to yours in what they want out of the top of the order, but once you deal in the specifics of how to accomplish it, you end up with at least one spot going MI, which leads a logical chain to Reyes, largely 'cause MIA is giving up for a while. And Reyes' pricetag steers AA to settle for Melky 'cause he's 8 a year cheap whereas Choo is Gose/Syndy type expensive. Bourn would've been interesting by the end, but no way AA holds out with that as his only option.

And I've probably gone in circles a few times at this point. Sorry for another ramble.

[Hendrix]

I was kind of envisioning Youk's babip rebounding. Last year it was .268, and his career is .322. Even if it got to .300, I imagine a slash line of around what he did 2 years ago of .258/.373/.459, which is similari-ish to his early years. Which imo is just about perfect for a #2 batter. Just basing of of Bill James projections of Choo, and Youk, he has Choo either walking or singling on 28% of PA's, and Youk walking or sinling on 26% of PA's. That seems pretty nice to have before having Bautista and EE coming to the dish. Especially EE, since Bautista jumps on 1st ~26% of the time too.

It is too bad Escobar's eye black/crappy season stopped us from letting him ride out his crappy season, because he is a pretty nice player like you said.


The way we did end up going was obviously pretty good, and can't complain.