If the Magic get a top draft pick, who should they take?

[Neon1]

No, actual difference between those two is that Shabazz is 6'6'', which is excellent for a SG and on top of that, he is incredibly long at 6'11''.

While being deadly from long range and having very good midrange game, he is strong, takes it to the rim with authority, very physical, so he bullys opponent defenders with his size and can actually post up and make some damage down low.

Defensively, yes, they both are similar and Shabazz needs a coach to lit a fire under him to use his size and length on that side of the floor.

Shabazz has higher ceiling than McLemore.

Ill give you the size difference since Muhammad is probably 6'5.75" and 225-230 to Ben's 6'4.5" 180ish, but the guy has ZERO dribble game, and cant shoot off the dribble, He is a open set shooter to this point, any points he gets in mid range is off a curl for a free shot (same deal as McLemore), He bullied a lot in HS, has posted some in college, Then there is the defense.

The in game issues between the two are for the most part exactly the same. I actually 100% agree with your assesment of McLemore, but Shabazz seems like an odd want for somebody that has such strong hesitations about McLemore's faults. Unless you are simply saying that you would rather chance it on Shabazz then McLemore because of the size thing.

[p0peye]

Unless you are simply saying that you would rather chance it on Shabazz then McLemore because of the size thing.

Shabazz has post game, can drive and explode to the rim, McLemore does not, save for transition. Their games are different and will translate differently to the pros, not just for the size, but it matters.

[Truth24]

I'm not a big fan of Shabazz he isn't even the best player on his team that honor goes to Jordan Adams.

[oakfanintheeast]

and that has nothing to do with NBA upside....... at all.

[thelead]

Doesn't seem like a Hennigan type of guy:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RuZv7snezw[/youtube]

[Bensational]

there's one thing about Oladipo which i think gives him a chance to become much more than he is in the NBA - his ability to absorb contact and score in the paint. granted, all i've seen are highlights, so don't take this as any kind of credible scouting report, but he gets to the rim a lot, and he often finishes high, or he absorbs contact and readjusts his shot. that is the kind of skill which separates Wade from a lot of players (along with the rest of his skillset, but this is a major factor).

there's a lot that doesn't bode well for Oladipo - his age, his questionable height, his handles, his lately developed jump shot - but finding a player who can get to the line with consistency is half the battle to finding a star. on 8.5FGAs he generates 3.5FTAs. that's almost drawing a foul 1 in 4 FGAs. to be able to keep that up in the NBA, he'll have to improve his handle much, much more.

i would never consider taking him with a top 1 - 3 pick, though. if we could swing Afflalo for Min's pick, and maybe package that pick + Nicholson to move up, i'd take Oladipo anywhere from 5 - 7.

Noel/Oladipo or Smart/Oladipo would be a solid draft, IMO.

[KillMonger]

If Smart or Noel isn't there trade down

[Blues]

I'd take Nerlens Noel. I think him not coming back until 2014 means we can continues the tanking for Wiggins/Parker. I know, just kidding lol

[Orlando_Pride]

Anyone else notice that Mclemore is 21 as a red shirt freshmen. Even for a redshirt freshmen that seems a tad bit old. He is older than Tobes and Harkless. I think that lessens his "upside" not by much but still I think that has to be a variable.

[Bensational]

Anyone else notice that Mclemore is 21 as a red shirt freshmen. Even for a redshirt freshmen that seems a tad bit old. He is older than Tobes and Harkless. I think that lessens his "upside" not by much but still I think that has to be a variable.

i'd love to see some research into the average age of players becoming 20ppg scorers, and/or franchise player caliber (meaning, they'd have to have become the 1st option for their team, or a significant 2nd option - ala young Kobe with Shaq).

[drsd]

i'd love to see some research into the average age of players becoming 20ppg scorers, and/or franchise player caliber (meaning, they'd have to have become the 1st option for their team, or a significant 2nd option - ala young Kobe with Shaq).

This year their are 10 players scoring 20 ppg, and the average is 27.4. The youngest is Harden and the oldest is Kobe.

..

[OrlandoMagician]

Honestly, I think Henny's gonna pick someone perhaps we're not expecting. He strikes me as the kind of GM who knows what he likes, does his homework, and is willing to go against hype and PR. His acquisitions so far suggest as much.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he really liked Trey Burke or McCollum and traded down for them, perhaps drafting someone high for another team and trading down while dumping a salary on that team.

I know some on this board would like the idea of dumping BBD + drafting Burke more than just drafting Smart.

[Tarot Magician]

Anyone else notice that Mclemore is 21 as a red shirt freshmen. Even for a redshirt freshmen that seems a tad bit old. He is older than Tobes and Harkless. I think that lessens his "upside" not by much but still I think that has to be a variable.

i'd love to see some research into the average age of players becoming 20ppg scorers, and/or franchise player caliber (meaning, they'd have to have become the 1st option for their team, or a significant 2nd option - ala young Kobe with Shaq).

This is obviously incomplete (doesn't state # of years in college, year in the NBA, team role, MPG, FGA, etc.). Additionally, some of these players had outlier years or declined shortly after (Tyreke Evans, Devin Harris, Mike James, etc.). But if we're talking raw data...

First Season of 20 PPG for Active NBA players:

Age 19 (3)
Carmelo Anthony, 2004, 21.0
LeBron James, 2004, 20.9
Kevin Durant, 2008, 20.3

Age 20 (3)
Kyrie Irving, 2013, 23.0 (49 Games)
Elton Brand, 2000, 20.1
Tyreke Evans, 2010, 20.1

Age 21 (7)
Chris Bosh, 2006, 22.5
Kobe Bryant, 2000, 22.5
Blake Griffin, 2011, 22.5
Tim Duncan, 1998, 21.1
Derrick Rose, 2010, 20.8
Amare Stoudemire, 2004, 20.6
Rudy Gay, 2008, 20.1

Age 22 (12)
Eric Gordon, 2011, 22.3
Juwan Howard, 1996, 22.1
Russell Westbrook, 2011, 21.9
Dirk Nowitzki, 2001, 21.8
Chris Paul, 2008, 21.1
Kevin Garnett, 1999, 20.8
Dwight Howard, 2008, 20.7
Jerry Stackhouse, 1997, 20.7
Brook Lopez, 2011, 20.4
Monta Ellis, 2008, 20.2
Kevin Love, 2011, 20.2
Zach Randolph, 2004, 20.1

Age 23 (9)
James Harden, 2013, 26.3 (66 games)
Vince Carter, 2000, 25.7
Paul Pierce, 2001, 25.3
Dwyane Wade, 2005, 24.1
Ben Gordon, 2007 21.4
Al Jefferson, 2008, 21.0
Grant Hill, 1996, 20.2
Kevin Martin, 2007, 20.2
Rip Hamilton, 2002, 20.0

Age 24 (10)
Antawn Jamison, 2001, 24.9
Brandon Roy, 2009, 22.6
Stephen Curry, 2013, 22.2
Richard Jefferson, 2005, 22.2
Ray Allen, 2000, 22.1
Jason Richardson, 2005, 21.7
Shawn Marion, 2003, 21.2
Jermaine O'Neal, 2003, 20.8
Corey Maggette, 2004, 20.7
Joe Johnson, 2006, 20.2

Age 25 (8)
Danny Granger, 2009, 25.8
Ron Artest, 2005, 24.6
LaMarcus Aldridge, 2011, 21.8
Andrea Bargnani, 2011, 21.4
Devin Harris, 2009, 21.3
Carlos Boozer, 2007, 20.9
Rashard Lewis, 2005, 20.5
Pau Gasol, 2006, 20.4

Age 26 (3)
Tony Parker, 2009, 22.0
David Lee, 2010, 20.2
Deron Williams, 2011, 20.1

Age 27 (3)
Jamal Crawford, 2008, 20.6
David West, 2008, 20.6
Caron Butler, 2008, 20.3

Age 28 (1)
Al Harrington, 2009, 20.1

Age 29 (1)
Stephen Jackson, 2008, 20.1

Age 30 (1)
Mike James, 2006, 20.3

Based on those statistics alone, 23 years old is the average age where players become 20 PPG scorers.

[KillMonger]

23 is the average huh? interesting, guess we have to wait a bit longer for someone like Nicholson who's a 23 year old Rook

[Skin]

Trey Burke will be worth a Top 5 pick when this tournament is done.

#burketothemagic2013

[Bensational]

Anyone else notice that Mclemore is 21 as a red shirt freshmen. Even for a redshirt freshmen that seems a tad bit old. He is older than Tobes and Harkless. I think that lessens his "upside" not by much but still I think that has to be a variable.

i'd love to see some research into the average age of players becoming 20ppg scorers, and/or franchise player caliber (meaning, they'd have to have become the 1st option for their team, or a significant 2nd option - ala young Kobe with Shaq).

This is obviously incomplete (doesn't state # of years in college, year in the NBA, team role, MPG, FGA, etc.). Additionally, some of these players had outlier years or declined shortly after (Tyreke Evans, Devin Harris, Mike James, etc.). But if we're talking raw data...

First Season of 20 PPG for Active NBA players:

Age 19 (3)
Carmelo Anthony, 2004, 21.0 (R)
LeBron James, 2004, 20.9 (R)
Kevin Durant, 2008, 20.3 (R)

Age 20 (3)
Kyrie Irving, 2013, 23.0 (1) (49 Games)
Elton Brand, 2000, 20.1 (R)
Tyreke Evans, 2010, 20.1 (R)

Age 21 (7)
Chris Bosh, 2006, 22.5 (2)
Kobe Bryant, 2000, 22.5 (4)
Blake Griffin, 2011, 22.5 (R)
Tim Duncan, 1998, 21.1 (R)
Derrick Rose, 2010, 20.8 (1)
Amare Stoudemire, 2004, 20.6 (1)
Rudy Gay, 2008, 20.1 (1)

Age 22 (12)
Eric Gordon, 2011, 22.3 (2)
Juwan Howard, 1996, 22.1 (1)
Russell Westbrook, 2011, 21.9 (2)
Dirk Nowitzki, 2001, 21.8 (2)
Chris Paul, 2008, 21.1 (2)
Kevin Garnett, 1999, 20.8 (3)
Dwight Howard, 2008, 20.7 (3)
Jerry Stackhouse, 1997, 20.7 (1)
Brook Lopez, 2011, 20.4 (2)
Monta Ellis, 2008, 20.2 (2)
Kevin Love, 2011, 20.2 (2)
Zach Randolph, 2004, 20.1 (2)

Age 23 (9)
James Harden, 2013, 26.3 (3)(66 games)
Vince Carter, 2000, 25.7 (1)
Paul Pierce, 2001, 25.3 (2)
Dwyane Wade, 2005, 24.1 (1)
Ben Gordon, 2007 21.4 (2)
Al Jefferson, 2008, 21.0 (3)
Grant Hill, 1996, 20.2 (1)
Kevin Martin, 2007, 20.2 (2)
Rip Hamilton, 2002, 20.0 (2)

Age 24 (10)
Antawn Jamison, 2001, 24.9 (2)
Brandon Roy, 2009, 22.6 (2)
Stephen Curry, 2013, 22.2 (3)
Richard Jefferson, 2005, 22.2 (3)
Ray Allen, 2000, 22.1 (3)
Jason Richardson, 2005, 21.7 (3)
Shawn Marion, 2003, 21.2 (3)
Jermaine O'Neal, 2003, 20.8 (6)
Corey Maggette, 2004, 20.7 (4)
Joe Johnson, 2006, 20.2 (4)

Age 25 (8)
Danny Granger, 2009, 25.8 (3)
Ron Artest, 2005, 24.6 (7)
LaMarcus Aldridge, 2011, 21.8 (4)
Andrea Bargnani, 2011, 21.4 (4)
Devin Harris, 2009, 21.3 (6)
Carlos Boozer, 2007, 20.9 (4)
Rashard Lewis, 2005, 20.5 (6)
Pau Gasol, 2006, 20.4 (4)

Age 26 (3)
Tony Parker, 2009, 22.0 (7)
David Lee, 2010, 20.2 (4)
Deron Williams, 2011, 20.1 (5)

Age 27 (3)
Jamal Crawford, 2008, 20.6 (7)
David West, 2008, 20.6 (4)
Caron Butler, 2008, 20.3 (5)

Age 28 (1)
Al Harrington, 2009, 20.1 (10)

Age 29 (1)
Stephen Jackson, 2008, 20.1 (7)

Age 30 (1)
Mike James, 2006, 20.3 (4)

Based on those statistics alone, 23 years old is the average age where players become 20 PPG scorers.

dude, that's awesome. i'm very grateful you took the time to look that stuff up.

**edit: i did some more work, added it to this.

the average number of years of NBA experience for all those guys before they hit 20ppg is 2.8 years.

i highlighted a few guys that i think would be a solid foundation piece, or at the very least a great #2, and any of them would be considered a bit of a coup in a draft. the average years experience for those guys is 1.5 years.

it's stating the obvious, but the really great players pretty much come straight out of the gate with big scoring performances/abilities - and age/experience don't seem like major defining characteristics. even guys who took 2-3 years before becoming 20ppg scorers showed within their 2nd season that they had the potential. the most telling stat was that they all averaged high FTA/min even if they didn't play major minutes. for me, i think that's a really defining attribute for projecting someone to be a real go to scorer. the few exceptions are guys like Granger/Joe Johnson/Monta Ellis/Jason Richardson. These guys all essentially became recognized scorers before they started to get to the line more frequently. Or, in JRich's case, never got to the line at all.

taking that and looking at our guys, i definitely think either Vucevic or Harris could come back next season as near 20ppg players. they've got the ability to do so, they just need to be utilized as primary options.

looking at Harkless, his numbers definitely reflect the likes of Paul George and Nic Batum's rookie seasons. minutes, USG and PER are all very similar. even Josh Smith's rookie season was comparable (albeit, slightly better). so unless he comes back dramatically improved, he's most likely going to take 2 more years before he starts scratching at 20ppg (if he ever gets there). these guys are also all low FTA/min guys. if Harkless can become a recognized scorer (say, 14 - 17ppg), then i think he'll start to get more calls as long as he continues to attack the rim - and that will ultimately lead to him cracking 20ppg.

interestingly, Vuc, Harris and Harkless have all had roughly the same amount of games where they've gotten 4+ FTAs. Vuc has done so 12 times, Harkless 10, and Harris 8. clearly Harris would be leading those, because all those games have come as a Magic player, so he's had much less opportunity.

we've got some very solid prospects here.

[Tarot Magician]

dude, that's awesome. i'm very grateful you took the time to look that stuff up.

**edit: i did some more work, added it to this.

the average number of years of NBA experience for all those guys before they hit 20ppg is 2.8 years.

i highlighted a few guys that i think would be a solid foundation piece, or at the very least a great #2, and any of them would be considered a bit of a coup in a draft. the average years experience for those guys is 1.5 years.

it's stating the obvious, but the really great players pretty much come straight out of the gate with big scoring performances/abilities - and age/experience don't seem like major defining characteristics. even guys who took 2-3 years before becoming 20ppg scorers showed within their 2nd season that they had the potential. the most telling stat was that they all averaged high FTA/min even if they didn't play major minutes. for me, i think that's a really defining attribute for projecting someone to be a real go to scorer. the few exceptions are guys like Granger/Joe Johnson/Monta Ellis/Jason Richardson. These guys all essentially became recognized scorers before they started to get to the line more frequently. Or, in JRich's case, never got to the line at all.

taking that and looking at our guys, i definitely think either Vucevic or Harris could come back next season as near 20ppg players. they've got the ability to do so, they just need to be utilized as primary options.

looking at Harkless, his numbers definitely reflect the likes of Paul George and Nic Batum's rookie seasons. minutes, USG and PER are all very similar. even Josh Smith's rookie season was comparable (albeit, slightly better). so unless he comes back dramatically improved, he's most likely going to take 2 more years before he starts scratching at 20ppg (if he ever gets there). these guys are also all low FTA/min guys. if Harkless can become a recognized scorer (say, 14 - 17ppg), then i think he'll start to get more calls as long as he continues to attack the rim - and that will ultimately lead to him cracking 20ppg.

interestingly, Vuc, Harris and Harkless have all had roughly the same amount of games where they've gotten 4+ FTAs. Vuc has done so 12 times, Harkless 10, and Harris 8. clearly Harris would be leading those, because all those games have come as a Magic player, so he's had much less opportunity.

we've got some very solid prospects here.

No problem. I enjoy projects like these. Thanks for taking the analysis a step further.

I'd share an Excel document, but my 2003 computer doesn't even have Excel.

[OrlandoMagician]

Last man standing*

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gb2LnmVC7M[/youtube]

*Not actually standing, more lying on a treatment table.

[RookieStar]

Last man standing*

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gb2LnmVC7M[/youtube]

*Not actually standing, more lying on a treatment table.

lulz... what a season to suck... when the draft sucks even more than your tanking efforts

[Bensational]

dude, that's awesome. i'm very grateful you took the time to look that stuff up.

No problem. I enjoy projects like these. Thanks for taking the analysis a step further.

I'd share an Excel document, but my 2003 computer doesn't even have Excel.

lulz, that's hardcore.

i took a cursory glance at the college performances for those guys. a lot were 17-20+ppg scorers in their last season before being drafted. some, like Rose, Bosh and a couple of others, were 14/15ppg scorers. so i was genuinely surprised to see someone developing from an average level scorer at the college level, into an elite level scorer in the NBA. that gives me hope that Smart could trend that way. and given his recent spate of 20pt games, i'd say it's very likely.