OJ Mayo 40 points 8 rebounds 3 assists against James Harden

[RebelWithACause]

okay only 3 pointers:

Paul George
Joe Johnson from 03 to 04 (17% difference)
Mo Williams (at least to an extent )
Jameer Nelson goes from way over 40% back to mediocre shooting every once a while in his career and then up again
Bruce Bowen
Jason Kidd (also over the years)
Granger
Dorell Wright

[tsherkin]

Understand that I'm not debating the notions that players can improve, that is evident. The issue at hand is the magnitude of the improvement.

Paul George

30-41 percent over 2+ years. Irrelevant, Mayo is shooting 11% higher than George's best. I've already allowed for 43%+ on the year, so this is a useless example.

Joe Johnson from 03 to 04 (17% difference)
...
Jason Kidd (also over the years)
Granger

Like all the rest, the magnitude doesn't line up. Mayo is a career 39% shooter, hovering in the low 40s wouldn't be a huge surprise.

[RebelWithACause]

Understand that I'm not debating the notions that players can improve, that is evident. The issue at hand is the magnitude of the improvement.

Paul George

30-41 percent over 2+ years. Irrelevant, Mayo is shooting 11% higher than George's best. I've already allowed for 43%+ on the year, so this is a useless example.

Joe Johnson from 03 to 04 (17% difference)
...
Jason Kidd (also over the years)
Granger

Like all the rest, the magnitude doesn't line up. Mayo is a career 39% shooter, hovering in the low 40s wouldn't be a huge surprise.

So 48% (370 attempts) for Joe Johnson in 04 does not count?
It was as surprising as Mayo now

[tsherkin]

[quote="ElMaestro90"
So 48% (370 attempts) for Joe Johnson in 04 does not count?
It was as surprising as Mayo now[/quote]

Not really. That's still below 50%. Also, there's a sizeable difference in the type of shots; JJ wasn't cranking out 47% 3P out of iso sets like Mayo is, nor was he shooting 62% from 3 on spot-ups, also like Mayo is. I don't think you appreciate the percentages here, nor the weight of history.

Last year, Steve Novak shot a hair over 47% on a bit over 5 3PA/g. He did it because he was a great shooter, but also because he was a pure spot-up specialist and the efficiency on those shots is way higher. Mayo is outperforming that to a level historically unprecedented for an on-ball player and has no historical precedent putting him in that category of shooter after 4 other seasons in the league.

Given the zone-specific percentages, league history, Mayo's history and his role, it'd be absurd not to expect him to regress. To what extent is anyone's guess, but sub-50% is essentially a guarantee. How much so is a different story, but you're arguing as if he's going to maintain his current efficiency, which is ridiculous.

[HitMan52]

Anyone care to discuss Mayo vs. Harden again?