rockymac52 wrote:Could all of the Len/Noel/Zeller supporters explain something to me...
I know they aren't all the same player, and they have different strengths and weaknesses, but do any of you really see any of them as future "great" players? Not saying they need to be superstars or anything like that, but are any of those guys ever going to be even a fringe all-star caliber player?
When I look at them, I see some solid role players. Guys who can play good defense (some more than others, obviously). Guys who might be solid Okafor replacements. Guys who can average around 10/10.
So my question for all of you who are big supporters of any of those three guys is, how good do you honestly think they can be? Are you envisioning them being a 10/10 player like I am, or are you expecting much more?
Because, if you like them because they can be solid contributors, playing solid defense and averaging around 10/10, then I don't really understand why you'd want to use our top 10 pick on them. If we want a solid role player who can average around 10/10 (not literally, because obviously there aren't that many guys averaging 10/10 in this league, but maybe 8/8 or something), then there's guys we can take at the end of the first round or even in the second round who will be able to provide that.
Meanwhile, there aren't quality wings growing on trees in this draft. There's a big difference, IMO, in the Porter/McLemore/Muhammad's at the top and the 2s and 3s that you're going to find in the late 1st or 2nd round. But I honestly don't feel like that's really the case for the big men, at least not as drastic of a difference in quality.
Seriously, I've seen a lot of people talking about finding an Okafor replacement recently. If that's what we're looking for, then there's plenty of guys we can snag later in the draft. For example, Alex Oriakhi. I have no doubt in my mind that he can step in immediately and produce solid numbers at the NBA level, something like 8/8 or 10/10, depending on how many minutes he gets.
Oriakhi is the 13th most efficient player on offense in Division I this season. In fact, he is the 5th most efficient big man, behind only Zeke Marshall, Doug McDermott, Kelly Olynyk, and Ryan Kelly. Pretty good company. Oriakhi scores at an extremely high efficiency on post ups, cuts, pick and rolls, and put backs from offensive rebounds. Defensively he's been fantastic defending post ups and pick and rolls. He's averaging 11.1 PPG on 62.9% shooting, in addition to his 8.6 RPG and 1.6 BPG, in only 25 MPG. At 6'9" he's a little undersized to be a center in the NBA, but his thick frame (250 pounds - not fat) makes him a force to be reckoned with at the 4. He's also a guy who knows his role well, and doesn't require any set plays in order to generate offense, although he's more than willing to receive the ball in the post on plays designed to get him a shot. He's the ultimate role player... in college, and one day in the near future, in the NBA.
Meanwhile Oriakhi is not even being drafted in the 2nd round on nbadraft.net and DX's most recent mock drafts, and he's not even in Chad Ford's top 100 2013 draft prospects. It doesn't really make sense, especially considering all of those websites had him as a mid 2nd rounder going into the season, and he has literally doubled his points and rebounds production from last year, in addition to a HUGE increase in FG%. I suspect that when the draft finally rolls around, Oriakhi will be selected in the mid to late 2nd round. I'd love to snag him with one of our 2nd round picks. He might not be a star at the NBA level, but he's definitely a safe bet for something like 8/8 as a quality role player, IMO. And if he is, in fact, that good, then there's no reason to pick a guy like Len/Zeller/Noel in the top 10 when we can get a slightly lesser version so much later in the draft.
I would be absolutely ecstatic with a draft of McCollum, McDermott, and Oriakhi.
I agree that it would be better to avoid using the lottery pick on Len or Zeller. If Noel is not the pick, I like Porter, Oladipo, McCollum, and Smart as guys the Wizards should pick first.
If McDermott is there in round two he absolutely must be the guy the pick with the higher round two pick. He might turn out to be better then Porter, and I think he can play some SF or PF.
If the Wizards pick Oriakhi or Marshall late in round two they would be selecting a player I also am convinced can make the roster and contribute as a replacement for Okafor.
