Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[The Consiglieri]

Looking at the standings, if Wall continues to play well, were looking at drafting somewhere b/w 9-11.

Guys I know will be gone:

C Nerlens Noel
F Otto Porter
G Ben McLemore
G Marcus Smart

Guys I suspect will be gone:

G Victor Oladipo
F Shabazz Muhammad
G Trey Burke (I think his draft stock will rise)

The best options around our pick:

F/C Cody Zeller
C Steven Adams
C Alex Len
C Kelly Olynyk
F Anthony Bennett
G C.J. McCollum
G Gary Harris

I know there are some names I left out like Goubert, Plumlee or Carter-Williams. Didn't include the Kentucky kids. Assumed guys like Jordan Adams, Shane Larkin & Glenn Robinson III were staying in school.

I've spent a lot of time researching our schedule and I remain confident we'll perform lower than many expect. Too many road games, not many left against weak teams as well. I see 3 to 5 wins on the schedule. That combined w a looksie at past 6 drafts consistently Revealed that 27 to 30 wins leads to the 7 slot the vast majority of the time. I think a trade down or to '14 makes sense barring a value player dropping.

[AFM]

Memphis' PG is very good. How come no one is talking about this guy?

[Nivek]

on a completely different topic, I would be curious if Nivek would be willing
to publicly grade his predictions from say last year. If you don't wish to, that's
fine. But I would find it interesting to see where YODA was good and where it
was perhaps not as good and doing it publicly might help you with any tweaks to it for
improvement.

For instance, YODA loved Jae Crowder and he got off to a pretty good start
early in the season, but from a totally seat of the pants viewpoint, it doesn't seem to
me that his early success has held up as the season has gone on. I could be totally wrong
about that.

What were YODA's best/worst calls last year?

So, here's last year's draft according to YODA (by "tier" -- grouped by players with the same basic rating). I published them over on my old blog. I'll just give the player name, their score in PPA (my stat where 100 = average, higher is better and replacement level is 45) through Sunday's games, and then maybe a comment.

1. Anthony Davis -- 173
2. Jae Crowder -- 67
3. Tyler Zeller -- 60
4. Marcus Denmon -- Spurs sent him overseas where he broke his foot. We'll see.
5. Bradley Beal -- 98
6. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -- 94
7. Damian Lillard -- 115
8. Thomas Robinson -- 39 with SAC; 60 with HOU
9. Will Barton -- 14
10. Dion Waiters -- 68
11. Kendall Marshall -- 16
12. Jared Sullinger -- 80
13. Miles Plumlee -- 18
14. Harrison Barnes -- 74
15. Terrence Jones -- 83
16. Andre Drummond -- 152
17. Darius Johnson-Odom -- -75 (just 6 minutes of playing time)
18. Jeremy Lamb -- 49
19. Ricardo Ratliffe -- hasn't played
20. Jeff Taylor -- 55
21. John Jenkins -- 63
22. Orlando Johnson -- 67
23. Tony Wroten -- 30
24. Quincy Miller -- -54
25. John Henson -- 84
26. Reggie Hamilton -- hasn't played
27. Kevin Jones -- hasn't played
28. Jordan Taylor -- hasn't played
29. John Shurna -- hasn't played
30. Devoe Joseph -- hasn't played
31. Drew Gordon -- hasn't played

At best, any grade is incomplete at this point. When I've researched the draft, I use 4-year production as the measure since that's how long the rookie contract lasts. The typical career pattern is for a player to improve early in his career, with the biggest leap being in the 3rd or 4th season.

Worst call was probably Drummond. His college numbers weren't impressive. In some ways, he's a testament to a player (or his coaches) limiting his game to what he's good at.

Here's the same list, but with guys who have appeared in games, with their ranking in YODA and their ranking in PPA (among rookies) side-by-side:

Code: Select all

PLAYER  YODA    PPA
Davis   1       1
Drummnd 16      2
Lillard 7       3
Beal    5       4
MKG     6       5
Henson  25      6
T.Jones 15      7
Sullngr 12      8
Barnes  14      9
Waiters 10      10
Crowder 2       11
Johnson 22      12
Jenkins 21      13
Zeller  3       14
Taylor  20      15
Miller  24      16
Robnsn  8       17
J.Lamb  18      18
Wroten  23      19
Plumlee 13      20
Marshll 11      21
Barton  9       22


When I get a chance, I'll post a look at YODA "calls" in previous years where there's more data.

[AFM]

DJ Stephens with 6 blocks already. He's a beast.

[Ruzious]

DJ Stephens with 6 blocks already. He's a beast.

8 for the game. He might be the next Michael Cooper - the 60th pick in the 1978 draft.

[payitforward]

I very much appreciate the questions/observations/conversation on this subject. So...thanks.

Good... I'll keep asking. Re: a score for level of competition:

I'm not basing it on my "sense" of level of competition, but on the work I've been doing in pulling together an attempt at predicting which college players will make good pros.

...an absurd illustration to demonstrate why level of competition is a factor that should be incorporated. Let's we have two players -- Big Thyme and Small Frey. They post identical stats in every way. They're the same height and weight. Same age. Same number of games, minutes played, points scored, shots taken -- you get the point.

Now let's say that Big Thyme posted his numbers while winning the NCAA championship playing in the SEC while Small Frey posted the numbers while playing in a rec league at his local YMCA. Which one is likely to be the better pro?

No question about it; level of competition matters. The question is how you quantify it w/ enough precision to wind up w/ reliable overall scores for a group of players. Your response doesn't address my skeptical question about that. I.e. is this possible to determine via regressions? To quantify that way.

(re: physical characteristics)

...athleticism is a component that speaks to potential for improvement and likelihood of success at the pro level where players are bigger, stronger and faster (and more skilled) than the competition they faced in college.

That's a hypothesis, something you'd need to discover to be true. Moreover one might say the same thing about "intelligence". Or many other variables. In all cases, it'd be a hypothesis. What evidence do you have that you can quantify "athleticism" in a way that it improves the reliability of your scores? And where would you think the evidence comes from (in other words, not from "common sense" please)? Not to mention that "bigger, stronger..." means something different in a 19 year old than in a 22 year old senior. Indeed, age itself is a more likely way to assess "potential for improvement". But I haven't heard that age is something you factor into YODA.

In my research, including "physical attributes" modestly improves the ability to predict future pro success.

I'm skeptical, Kevin. Especially because your database, to be meaningfully large, must include many cases where you are assigning physical attribute scores retrospectively. Not to mention that it must include many college players for whom you don't have reliable "physical attribute" data. Not to mention that the data that exists isn't all that reliable! Especially from year to year.

(re: Now, Arturo is doing something a little different from what you are doing.)

This is true. In effect, Arturo is giving a grade on a player's college play. I'm attempting to predict which players will make successful professional players.[/quote]
I think you are wrong about Arturo. WP48 has one and only one virtue: its results correlate with win-loss records better than any other metric. This is no surprise, as doing that is precisely the goal, and the wp48 algorithm was tweaked over and over again until it produced that desired result.

This is by no means the same as "giving a grade on a (single) player...." Doing the latter is attempting to use a statistical truth to predict a single actual "event." Which is to say it's a classic mis-use of statistical analysis. (Note that many people misuse WP48 in the same way)

This is the reason I'm skeptical about you "attempting to predict which players will make successful professional players," or I should better say that I'm skeptical about your attempt to predict whether player A will be a more successful (i.e. more productive) NBA player than player B. Which is what I think you are really trying to do.

Not that one couldn't pick an "A" and "B" that made the prediction easy of course. But I'm quite sure I could give you ten player-pairs out of this draft and ask you to use YODA to predict their likely level of NBA success (we'd have to agree on that metric of course). I believe your results would be indistinguishable from random.

...John Wall was the lowest rated #1 pick I've evaluated. His score was consistent with a top 5 pick in most drafts, but not being the top overall pick.

Without looking back at WP48 for e.g. a decade of drafts to confirm, I'm pretty confident he was lowest in that metric as well.

[nuposse04]

Marcus Smart looks awful today. He's going to be at least a couple seasons away from being a factor in the NBA.

[Rafael122]

Marcus Smart looks awful today. He's going to be at least a couple seasons away from being a factor in the NBA.

Ford had him ranked as his top prospect I believe. His team is one and done, would you come back for another year and get more seasoning or do you parlay this into a top 5 pick knowing you had an awful last game?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Marcus Smart looks awful today. He's going to be at least a couple seasons away from being a factor in the NBA.

Yep. I had Oklahoma State going to the Final Four in my Realgm bracket.

Arsalan Kazemi put up terrific numbers at Rice and he's been very unselfish and steady since transferring to Oregon. Kazemi had 11 points, 17 rebounds and played great defense on Marcus Smart and others.

[Dat2U]

So I guess today was a bad day for Mike Muscala's draft prospects.

And yeah, I've cooled on Marcus Smart a bit. Still a solid prospect but I like Burke more.

[stevemcqueen1]

Marcus Smart looks awful today. He's going to be at least a couple seasons away from being a factor in the NBA.

Yep. I had Oklahoma State going to the Final Four in my Realgm bracket.

Arsalan Kazemi put up terrific numbers at Rice and he's been very unselfish and steady since transferring to Oregon. Kazemi had 11 points, 17 rebounds and played great defense on Marcus Smart and others.

Me too. I thought Smart had a chance to have a special tourney. The format really favors dribble penetrators with high usage rates. Plus he struck me as a winner that would just find a way to get it done. Today was a huge disappointment for me.

[stevemcqueen1]

So I guess today was a bad day for Mike Muscala's draft prospects.

And yeah, I've cooled on Marcus Smart a bit. Still a solid prospect but I like Burke more.

I still like Smart over Burke but it's an academic discussion to me because I hope we don't draft either. If Smart doesn't work out at PG, he can play SG. He's got a better body for the NBA and he's talented. Besides, Burke isn't having so great a game himself.

[stevemcqueen1]

Katin Reinhardt shoots way too much. Kid, you're not that good. UNLV's perimeter players hog the ball and they don't have a real PG that can run the offense properly. Here's a protip: pass Bennett the ball. He's way better than you!

[stevemcqueen1]

I love that flagrant foul call on Bennett and the ff rule of getting possession back. What would be a totally routine play in the NBA is a crucial swing.

Just a nice reminder that CBB is little boy basketball.

[jmrosenth]

I touted Tim Hardaway Jr. a few days and the stat geeks shot me down. He looked great today in the first round of the tourney - granted not against not competition. He's going to be a solid pickup for someone in the mid-late 1st round.

[stevemcqueen1]

UNLV is playing awful. These guys can't even finish dunks or layups. Reinhardt is chucking away, the kid's a freshman but he's a scrub. They can't pass, dribble, or shoot. I'm thinking they are going to lose to a team that's a lot less talented than them.

[nate33]

Marcus Smart having a poor showing hurts us. I was hoping he would go 1st or 2nd in the draft to increase the odds that we get who we want whenever we draft. On the upside, Bennett is also having a bad game, which might knock him down from the 5-8 range to the 7-10 range where we're likely to pick.

This guy Crabbe looks pretty darn good. He's listed at 6-6 but sure looks longer.

[Upper Decker]

I haven't seen a lot of Bennett and I came into the NCAA's really hoping he'd make a strong impression. I've been bearish on Bennett because he's completely appears like a tweener in a bad way. In this game he looks smaller than I initially thought, he looks lost on defense, like Javale McGee rookie year lost on defense. He's no more athletic than Derrick Williams. I'll need some convincing to take him off my do-not-draft list.

[stevemcqueen1]

Refs give Cal a flagrant foul for another foul that wasn't particularly hard but the kid fell hard so it becomes a potential five point swing. I really don't like the way that rule is written and called.

Cal is triple teaming Bennett and so far Bennett hasn't been able to produce at his usual pace. He's also playing poor defense, cheating over to try and help out on Cal's star and giving up dunks to the big guys.

Rough day for Smart, Bennett, and Burke.

[stevemcqueen1]

UNLV has been absolutely awful. I don't think a team could play dumber basketball. And they're still only down by two.