Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[nate33]

Why is Cal fouling immediately rather than waiting as long as possible?

[payitforward]

So, here's last year's draft according to YODA (by "tier" -- grouped by players with the same basic rating). I published them over on my old blog. ....


1. Anthony Davis -- 173
...
3. Tyler Zeller -- 60
16. Andre Drummond -- 152

At best, any grade is incomplete at this point. ... Worst call was probably Drummond. His college numbers weren't impressive. In some ways, he's a testament to a player (or his coaches) limiting his game to what he's good at.

Actually, I'd call this an F so far, not an incomplete (hoping that you don't mind me tweaking you of course!! ), and Drummond is the poster child for what's wrong. On many fronts.

First, you rated Drummond tier 6 and Tyler Zeller Tier 3. Now, I assume you don't think Zeller's "physical attributes" are superior to Drummond's. In fact, it's substantially the opposite!

So it must have been his productivity (Drummond's "college numbers weren't impressive"). But what do we see in WS40 when we compare Drummond and Zeller as freshmen? Drummond had a WS40 of 10.5; Zeller was at 7. Now, Zeller didn't play much as a Freshman (that itself is testimony to Drummond!). As a Sophomore, he registered 10.2 -- a little closer to Drummond.

WS/40 and physical attributes both strongly say Drummond (your Tier 6) over Zeller (your Tier 3). And... lo and behold, Drummond outperformed Zeller as a rookie -- by a country mile! Moreover, he's way younger, meaning he has much more room to improve. How much wronger could you have been?

Now, I note that you have Davis at Tier 1 -- and for good reason off his college performance. No argument there. And then you have him outperforming Drummond as a rookie too. Sorry, you are wrong there. Wrong by a lot.

Minor stats (assists, steals, blocks, TOs, fouls): Drummond has fewer TOs, more blocks and more steals. But he's slightly down on assists and slightly higher in fouls. Still, overall these stats slightly favor Drummond.

Every 40 minutes, Drummond gets 15.2 rebounds (5.8 Orbs), Davis gets 11.2 (3.5 Orbs). Not even close.

Efg% -- Drummond .59, Davis .51 -- and TS% Drummond .56, Davis .55 -- more or less a wash, but Drummond has a little edge.

As to the usage argument, it's BS: consider this -- every 40 minutes, Davis takes 3.7 more shots, but he only makes 1.1 of them. In other words, if Drummond's teammates shoot 30% on those extra shots he leaves them, the team is is getting more from them.

Now... Davis is having an outstanding rookie year; he's a shoe-in to get the RoY award. But Drummond, who won't get it, and who has only played 1000 minutes has been minute for minute the most productive player in the NBA. Bar none. Period.

You describe him as "limiting his game to what he's good at." Apparently, what he's good at is getting his team more extra possessions than any player in the league and converting his own shots at a rate among the highest in the league. Those are the two key factors in winning basketball games.

In other words, again, in re: your comparison of them so far in the NBA, you get an F. WP48 has it right. Add Zeller into the picture. Add your *way too low* estimation of Beal and Kidd-Gilchrist in comparison to Crowder (!). And having Denmon a tier higher than BB and MK-G?? And on a level with Jason Kidd and Tim Duncan? Note that I *like* Crowder (wd have taken him @32) and Denmon (might have taken him @46).

Don't take umbrage, ok? You are doing interesting work. But the idea that YODA can predict a prospect's likely nba results is false on the face of it. It can't even assess relative performance w/ the results in front of it.

[Dat2U]

Well here's how I picked them last year.

All in all, not too bad, maybe I fell I love with MKG too much. Did ok I think. Only time will tell.

by Dat2U on Thu Jun 28, 2012 10:26 am

Updated Tiers: Final list

TIERone surefire All-Stars/franchise players.

PF Anthony Davis ... duh!

TIERtwo potential All-Stars.

SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ... has solidly been my second choice since December. Safest pick in the draft outside of Davis. I think he's a walking double/double in the NBA. Will rebound at the SF position much like Marion did in his prime. Ideal SF length. At 18 yrs old and 233 lbs will bully many other SFs in time. Best finisher in the draft class. Not an elite ball handler but he can attack off the bounce and get to the rack with consistency. The eye-popping hitch on his J is the one question that remains unanswered.

TIERthree NBA All-Star potential, but all have significant weaknesses that could keep them from living up to it.

SG Bradley Beal ... I've come to the opinion that he's a better athlete than I and many give him credit for. No one rebounds as well as he does for a 6-4 G without some bounce in his step. Pure looking stroke but in college he had just okay results. But importantly he finished out the year on an upwards tick as he begun to assert himself more. More polished and mature than the typical 18 yr old. Handle is a work in progress. Has shown he can create off the bounce but it's not a major part of his game yet. The purity of his shot will determine his level of success IMO.

SG Dion Waiters ... Slick, smooth ball handler with power. Has a little Arenas to his game in that it's like he's driving down hill towards the basket. If he gets on your hip, he's got you. Not blazing fast but changes speeds like a vet. Looks ideal for the Harden, Ginobili, Terry role as a facilitator in a 6th man role where he creates for himself and others. Played the same role at Syracuse. Not a pure 1 or 2, just a lead guard. Shot is a bit inconsistent and he did have maturity issues his frosh season before coming back rededicated this past season.

CE Andre Drummond ... Great size and wingspan. Incredibly agile athlete for a man his size. A freak a nature very much in the Kwame mold. Just a kid in a lot of ways and honestly he needs teaching more than anything else. Incredibly raw but the upside is very high. Already a solid pick & role defender and individual defender due to his lateral quickness and able to attack the offensive glass. Everything else is a work in progress. He'll need to coddled and coached up as confidence seemed to waver at times. Will need to go the right organization in order to succeed. Not sure the Wizards are the right situation.

PG Damian Lillard ... Quick, skilled and intelligent decision maker are the words to best describe him. Best PG in the draft by far. Devastatingly efficient scorer showing excellent range and stroke. Not an explosive athlete IMO but has solid first step and shows the ability to excel in P&R situations early on. Level of competition is a concern but he did flat out dominate.

PF Thomas Robinson ... Will rebound at a high level, that's a guarantee. But the rest of his game is not as clear. A below the rim player. Will throw a dunk with ferocity if he gets two steps but relies much more on quickness than hops. Has a nose for the ball but offensively he's not a great finisher or very skilled. Developing face up game but his jumper needs a lot of work. 2 pt% in college is a red flag. So are the blocks. Will likely transition to a complementary role in time but if he gets the minutes a double/double is very possible.

TIERfour potential starters or quality depth off the bench.

PF John Henson ... Incredibly long potential game changer defensively. Outside of Davis, the best defensive player in the draft. Ability to add weight is a concern.

SG Jeremy Lamb … Ideal sized two guard with developed mid range game. Basically Nick Young with about 20% higher IQ. Doesn’t like to get his uniform dirty. Not a rebounder or much of a passer. This was supposed to be his team and his year and UConn flopped. Some responsibility should fall on him.

SF Harrison Barnes … I’ve bashed him so much that I’ve failed to properly acknowledge he’ll likely play in the NBA for the next 10 seasons. But as a role player and contributor than a difference maker. But in the short term he’ll get shots up and will get you a decent ppg per game on low efficiency. I think his efficiency could improve in a lower usage role as a spot up shooter?

SF Quincy Miller … This is more of a projection. I thought he showed flashes at times of being incredibly versatile and skilled as an oversized 3 but really struggled at times to create space for himself because his athleticism wasn’t quite there. Wasn’t all the way back from an ACL tear. Will he get that athleticism back? Was never an elite athlete to begin with. Can he expand his range to the NBA 3? Elite size for a 3. Can he defend quicker 3s?

PF Terrence Jones ... Versatile stretch 4 with a bit of the Antoine Walker gene. But deserves a lot of credit for playing more under control this year and cutting down on the mental lapses. Lacks ideal length but at over 250 lbs, he's very mobile for his size.

PF Andrew Nicholson ... Another versatile stretch 4 with a silky smooth outside game. Arguably most skilled big in the draft in terms of shot creation and shot making ability. Looks like a 3 but has acceptable length at PF. My biggest question is how well he’ll defend in the NBA, didn’t defend much in college.

CE Tyler Zeller … Standing reach is a major concern… even if it’s 1.5 to 2 inches taller than the listed 8’8”. What he does have going for him his high activity level and polish as a mature senior. Upside isn’t quite to the level of the other big men but for next season at least, outside of Davis, Zeller will have the biggest impact among rookie bigs.

SG Will Barton … Tough to get a handle on, rebounds like a freak at 175 lbs soaking weight. Motor runs high. Shot is improving better inconsistent. Probably worth betting on.

SG Austin Rivers … I’ve softened my stance on Rivers. Has NBA level first step and developed handle. Can get in the lane at will but his decision making leans selfish when he gets there. Needs to be a more willing passer otherwise he’s just the next unconscious gunner. His pedigree would indicate he should be able to make this switch. Not an elite athlete and undersized for a 2. He’s got one thing over many other players, confidence… and often that’s half the battle, as long as he avoids the MJ complex.

CE Meyers Leonard … Similar to Drummond in that he desperately needs to be coached up. Offensive skills not quite as raw but he’s also 2 yrs older than Drummond. Lacks confidence at times and defensively he can ran through like Javale on his worst day. Can also create havoc defensively with his ability to protect the rim. Your typical boom or bust big.

PF Perry Jones III … I’ve cooled on him considerably. Top notch physical specimen with ideal basketball body but the motor just goes half speed far too much. I figure he’ll tease here and there but inevitably he’s setting up folks for disappointment. He may not like being a PF, but he is one. Skills are excellent for a big man but meh for a perimeter player.

TIERfive potential role players but all have significant weaknesses that could keep them from being in a regular rotation. Roster depth.

PF Arnett Moultrie … Top 10 pick in terms of athleticism & size. Cat quick for legit 6-11 guy, can finish well around the basket. Skillset is a work in progress, still a bit raw in terms of a face up game. Showed improved range out to college 3 but on very limited attempts. Motor runs low on defense a times. Questionable attitude and maturity. Can get down on teammates and self.

CE Jared Sullinger … Back issues. May need surgery? Can he consistently play with a high motor? Who does he defend, 4s or 5s? I think he’s got the offensive skill to contribute in the pick and pop game.

SG Terrence Ross … Nice pure looking stroke, excellent athlete but doesn’t get rim. Doesn’t get to the line at all. Solid tools defensively but stuck b/w positions. Doesn’t have the handle of a 2 or the ideal size of a SF.

SF Jae Crowder … Undersized SF with impeccable work ethic. Simply a baller. Good 3 pt shooter & ferocious rebounder with limited handle but aware of his limitations. Would not be surprised one bit if he carves out a Jared Dudley type career.

PF Draymond Green … Measured out surprisingly well as an undersized PF. That’s more realistic than him playing full time on the perimeter. Jack of all trades, but master of none. Natural leader on and off the court. Will be a great teammate.

PG Marquis Teague … Work in progress. Really not ready. Brother of Jeff Teague. A lighting quick athlete. Made better decisions with the ball in his hands as the year progressed after a terrible start. Should have stayed another year and may have been a lottery pick with natural progression. Will likely need to sit for a year or two and work on his game.

SF Evan Fournier … Solid 2/3. Can handle the rock and operate in pick & rolls situations. A slasher overseas but may not have the top notch athleticism to rely on his slashing ability against NBA comp. Inconsistent jumper. Value would be higher if he can knock down 3s with consistency.

TIERsix Guys with raw talent but significant flaws. Basically your taking a flier and hoping for a rotation player. Roster filler.

PF Royce White … Uniquely skilled big. Off court issues are well vetted. On court, had the offense run through him in college. Excellent passing ability and ball-handling for a big, but way too turnover prone. Doesn’t have a jump shot to rely upon. Undersized too. Will need to make major adjustments to his game to succeed in the NBA.

PG Kendall Marshall … Elite PG skills. Elite court vision. Knows how to run an offense. Best natural PG in college period. Unfortunately, he’s a marginal NBA athlete will little in the way of shot creation skills. Won’t be able to break down defensives on the NBA level. Who does he defend on the NBA court? Maybe he’ll succeed in a reserve role?

SF Moe Harkless … Excellent athlete and ideal size as a SF. Plays with a high motor and rebounds at a high level. Ideal defensive tools, but offensive game needs a ton of work. A bit of project. No real jumper as of yet and not a great finisher either. Has okay handle for a SF but right now he looks like Wilson Chandler without a jumper.

PG Tony Wroten … Ideal combination of size and athleticism for a guard. Stuck in b/w two positions. Ball dominate guard with ability to make the flashy pass. Has no idea how to run a team. A train wreck of a PG right now. Broke jump-shot. Basically, he’s Tyreke Evans lite.

SF Jeff Taylor … Much improved shooter as a senior. Always been an elite athlete. So-so ballhandler. Key to sticking is knocking down 3s with consistency. Will be a solid defender.

CE Kyle O’Quinn … Legit C size. Smart, heady player who dominated lower competition and excelled in the NCAA tourney. High IQ player who should be able to contribute in spot minutes off the bench.

CE Festus Ezeli … Brendan Haywood type C with legit size and solid mobility. Suspect hands, and limited offensive game. Already an NBA quality defender in the post. Question will be whether he can improve as a rebounder. Was slowed due to suspension and injury this year.

THE BEST OF THE REST you gotta pick somebody. NBDL talent.

SG Marcus Denmon

SF Hollis Thompson

SG Kim English

SG John Jenkins

PF Drew Gordon

SG Doron Lamb

PG Tu Holloway

SG Orlando Johnson

PG Scott Machado

PF John Surna

GUYS I WOULD NOT DRAFT

CE Fab Melo ... He thinks the game slowly…. Very bad sign.

CE Miles Plumlee … I don’t care what type of athlete he is. He was nothing more than a grunt in college.

SG Kevin Murphy … very mediocre numbers against marginal competition

SG William Buford … Simply not an NBA level talent. Was merely an average college player.

[AFM]

Geez, payitforward ripping Nivek a new anus. To be fair, Drummond has surprised everyone.

[nate33]

WTF? Did Nivek pee in payitforward's coffee or something?

[nate33]

Dat2U, you continue to amaze me with your draft analysis. Your performance in each of the last two drafts has been ridiculously good, way better than any draft website or statistical model.

[payitforward]

Geez, payitforward ripping Nivek a new anus. To be fair, Drummond has surprised everyone.

No, not at all! Kevin is making an effort to do something extremely difficult and extremely interesting. And I'm counting on him taking no umbrage whatever at the (admittedly critical) light I'm trying to shine on his work.

The truth is that it would be an enormous surprise if a set of algorithms could predict human performance in complex situations. All the same, I think it's great that people keep trying, and by and large I agree w/ Kev's views of the game and player performance. I can say as well that I would not be able to do what he does.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Refs give Cal a flagrant foul for another foul that wasn't particularly hard but the kid fell hard so it becomes a potential five point swing. I really don't like the way that rule is written and called.

Cal is triple teaming Bennett and so far Bennett hasn't been able to produce at his usual pace. He's also playing poor defense, cheating over to try and help out on Cal's star and giving up dunks to the big guys.

Rough day for Smart, Bennett, and Burke.

I have never been all in for Bennett or Burke and I'm losing a lot of enthusiasm for Smart after today. A lot of players can help the Wizards and I don't care to see any of these players drafted per se.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dat2U, you continue to amaze me with your draft analysis. Your performance in each of the last two drafts has been ridiculously good, way better than any draft website or statistical model.

Dat is good but I think I am even better when I am focused. This year I'm focused.

This draft has a lot of players at the back of the second round and not even listed in most mocks who are better than some of DX's lottery picks.

Allen Crabbe is Dr. Fred K. Price's grandson. I noticed his reaction when his coach shoved him. He's a three point shooter who moves well off the ball and who has size at SG. He and Kentavious Powell-Pope, along with Carrick Felix and the guy I mentioned above, D.J. Stephens, are all major prospects who would be getting all kinds of hype at bigger schools.

Guys like Juvonte Reddic and Colton Iverson are better than players like Ryan Kelly, who get a lot of hype because of where they go to school.

Speaking of Felix, his ASU teammate, the nation's highest scoring freshman, Jahii Carson is a tremendous talent who probably can go first round if he comes out.

[nate33]

Dat2U, you continue to amaze me with your draft analysis. Your performance in each of the last two drafts has been ridiculously good, way better than any draft website or statistical model.

Dat is good but I think I am even better when I am focused. This year I'm focused.

I'm looking forward to it CCJ. I know in the past few years, you haven't spent as much time on your draft analysis, so you've really only pointed out some guys you think are underrated and some guys you think are overrated. This year, I'd like to see quantify your rankings a bit more. I'd love to see you put together an overall ranking, or at least a grouping by tiers. It would be great to see a definitive list of your final opinions before draft day, so we can look back and see exactly how well you have performed. You gotta give Dat2U a lot of credit for putting a clear list out there to be criticized later with hindsight.

[montestewart]

Dat2U, you continue to amaze me with your draft analysis. Your performance in each of the last two drafts has been ridiculously good, way better than any draft website or statistical model.

Dat is good but I think I am even better when I am focused. This year I'm focused.

I'm looking forward to it CCJ. I know in the past few years, you haven't spent as much time on your draft analysis, so you've really only pointed out some guys you think are underrated and some guys you think are overrated. This year, I'd like to see quantify your rankings a bit more. I'd love to see you put together an overall ranking, or at least a grouping by tiers.

Yes, because when I make my final picks in the contest, it'll be about 5% me, 15% other online media (including doclnkin, Nivek, etc.), and about 80% Dat2U/CCJ. Pony up. I'm shooting for 2nd (since Dat2U seems to have retired 1st, unless CCJ claims it).

[Illuminaire]

Drummond is the reason that GMs keep reaching on high potential bigs. Every so often, it works out.

I don't think missing on Drummond is a big deal for anyone, stat-head or not. Everyone knew he had immense potential, and everyone agreed that he'd mostly underperformed. Hindsight is wonderful, but tell me something new.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Little things with being a single dad and staying in family court had me a bit distracted.

Okay, nate. I will step up and do that. I have to go back and see where my personal bias has made me miss on some guys. This past draft, the one guy I seem to have overrated is Will Barton.

Dat's list is BETTER than anything I could do even previously. His tiers really are the best.

My gift seems to be seeing the guy few others see. A lot of times it seems obvious to me and I get frustrated, as with Faried and Millsap. This year's draft has 3 or 4 players like that.

[stevemcqueen1]

Refs give Cal a flagrant foul for another foul that wasn't particularly hard but the kid fell hard so it becomes a potential five point swing. I really don't like the way that rule is written and called.

Cal is triple teaming Bennett and so far Bennett hasn't been able to produce at his usual pace. He's also playing poor defense, cheating over to try and help out on Cal's star and giving up dunks to the big guys.

Rough day for Smart, Bennett, and Burke.

I have never been all in for Bennett or Burke and I'm losing a lot of enthusiasm for Smart after today. A lot of players can help the Wizards and I don't care to see any of these players drafted per se.

Definitely disappointing for me too. I was hoping to see several games of both Smart and Bennett.

Bennett really showed his butt on D today. He just didn't look like he knew how to play big man D. Drifting out of position and not rotating well at all. The one thing he did do really well was box out and rebound. He's looking like a Carlos Boozer type defender that needs to be paired with a long, disciplined defensive 5 where he can just box out and rebound and play one on one with his man.

In the past he has shown the ability to stay in front of smaller defenders out on the perimeter. Definitely a better comfort level playing on the ball on the perimeter, where he's actually pretty disruptive and blocks shots + plays the passing lanes.

Offensively Bennett was fine. He scored pretty well considering the pressure he was facing and the quality of his opportunities. He flashed some serious tools. Some of those drives were nice looking, beating his man and getting by the second one to the rim. He's got sick handles for his size. Pretty jumper too. I think he's going to be a prolific NBA scorer. The floor spacing just wasn't there tonight. He was doubled almost every time he touched the ball and there was often a third defender at the rim. It won't be like that in the NBA.

I still like Bennett but I'm not kidding myself about his ability to defend the low post. He's going to be awful. It almost makes me think he should play the 3 but then you'd be losing a lot of the rebounding and the inside scoring that makes him special. He just needs to get far more disciplined on defense.

[Ruzious]

Geez, payitforward ripping Nivek a new anus. To be fair, Drummond has surprised everyone.

No, not at all! Kevin is making an effort to do something extremely difficult and extremely interesting. And I'm counting on him taking no umbrage whatever at the (admittedly critical) light I'm trying to shine on his work.

The truth is that it would be an enormous surprise if a set of algorithms could predict human performance in complex situations. All the same, I think it's great that people keep trying, and by and large I agree w/ Kev's views of the game and player performance. I can say as well that I would not be able to do what he does.

Again, you''re going to whine about this because your thinking is strictly mechanical, but players are affected by who they play for. Players aren't Hoovers - they don't develop in a vacuum. A guy like Drummond isn't likely going to develop well on teams that need or ask for different things from their center. As a very low usage player in Detroit, he's excellent. And it's way too early to evaluate the success or failure of picks from the last draft - especially with all the 19 year old rookies. The Tony Parker example given earlier is a good one.

[willbcocks]

WTF? Did Nivek pee in payitforward's coffee or something?

Everyone's peed in his coffee. Either that or--despite professing a love for statistics--he only and always writes in absolute terms, which make his writing abrasive, condescending, and prone to exaggeration.

[DMVleGeND]

Drummond is the reason that GMs keep reaching on high potential bigs. Every so often, it works out.

I don't think missing on Drummond is a big deal for anyone, stat-head or not. Everyone knew he had immense potential, and everyone agreed that he'd mostly underperformed. Hindsight is wonderful, but tell me something new.

How can you say passing up on a potentially dominant big man is "not a big deal?" Drummond is 19 and was one of the top rookies in the league before his injury, even though many were calling him "too raw to contribute." He's
still a kid. Imagine when he reaches his prime.

And not everyone is using hindsight. Me and a few others were on the Drummond bandwagon.

[Nivek]

No question about it; level of competition matters. The question is how you quantify it w/ enough precision to wind up w/ reliable overall scores for a group of players. Your response doesn't address my skeptical question about that. I.e. is this possible to determine via regressions? To quantify that way.

It probably is possible via regression. I took existing measures on strength of schedule and team strength and applied them in a way that made sense to me. Biggest challenge is getting all the data in place because I'm drawing from multiple sources and I'm not a programmer. I have a couple programmers I've been talking with who may be able to help with this in the very near future. So, there could be an improved YODA soon. Hmm, guess that would make it YODA 2.0: The Regression Strikes Back. Or something.

That's a hypothesis, something you'd need to discover to be true. Moreover one might say the same thing about "intelligence". Or many other variables. In all cases, it'd be a hypothesis. What evidence do you have that you can quantify "athleticism" in a way that it improves the reliability of your scores? And where would you think the evidence comes from (in other words, not from "common sense" please)? Not to mention that "bigger, stronger..." means something different in a 19 year old than in a 22 year old senior. Indeed, age itself is a more likely way to assess "potential for improvement". But I haven't heard that age is something you factor into YODA.

The athleticism measures I use are from the publicly available times/scores/measurements from the draft combines. I do factor in age/class.

In my research, including "physical attributes" modestly improves the ability to predict future pro success.

I'm skeptical, Kevin. Especially because your database, to be meaningfully large, must include many cases where you are assigning physical attribute scores retrospectively. Not to mention that it must include many college players for whom you don't have reliable "physical attribute" data. Not to mention that the data that exists isn't all that reliable! Especially from year to year.

I'm skeptical too. As mentioned above, I attempt to be as objective as possible in the athleticism component by using information from the draft camps. Where there isn't draft camp data, the default is to make no adjustment. The athleticism/size component is the part of YODA in which I have the least confidence. Still working on it as time permits.

[pancakes3]

I think the lesson on Drummond is that you can't pass up a body like that. It's not just the fact that he's tall but that he's 270lbs and can move. His potential is different than a guy like Len, or even Zeller. He's got 20-30lbs of muscle on those guys. Furthermore, as raw as he is, he's a different type of player than McGee or Ike Austen because he's got damn near 50-60 lbs on those pogo sticks.

BJ Mullens would be the most recent physical analogy.

[fishercob]

Geez, payitforward ripping Nivek a new anus. To be fair, Drummond has surprised everyone.

I think PIF's criticism is extremely well-intentioned even if his writing style is grating! I think criticism of hypotheses and ideas leads to better outcomes! I think Nivek has an extremely thick skin and isn't offended by PIF's critiques or his absolutist language and his unwavering certitude -- that often comes off as arrogance! I think PIF is a smart guy whose overall contributions advance the conversation in these parts!