2013 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[gswhoops]

With Jarvis Jones (by all accounts) face-planting his pro day, how much further will he fall?

I think all the people who hyped him up as an elite athlete look silly because it's clearly evident from games that he was not. He's very fast within one or two steps, that's it. A 30.5" vertical and 4.94 40 for an OLB that weighs in the low 240s? I don't care about college production, that is not close to the minimum athletic metrics that (most) NFL teams have for the position.

It's fascinating to me that the same people who still champion Jones even after this, and there are some, are the exact same people who rip Damontre Moore for being unathletic. Moore weighs 15 pounds more than Jones and ran the exact same 40 time, did one less bench rep, and was better in the short shuttle, vertical, and broad jumps. And Moore is a 3-4 OLB, Jones a 4-3 SLB, which means Jones' role requires more explosive athleticism and long speed to succeed.

I suspect someone will take Jones in the 20s. They will regret it. At least Aaron Maybin was fast.

Where would you take him? 40's, 50's?

[gswhoops]

Also, any insight into Logan Ryan from Rutgers? He's got a huge range in mocks, some guys have him as a late 1st and others in the 3rd/4th round

[Icness]

With Jarvis Jones (by all accounts) face-planting his pro day, how much further will he fall?

I think all the people who hyped him up as an elite athlete look silly because it's clearly evident from games that he was not. He's very fast within one or two steps, that's it. A 30.5" vertical and 4.94 40 for an OLB that weighs in the low 240s? I don't care about college production, that is not close to the minimum athletic metrics that (most) NFL teams have for the position.

It's fascinating to me that the same people who still champion Jones even after this, and there are some, are the exact same people who rip Damontre Moore for being unathletic. Moore weighs 15 pounds more than Jones and ran the exact same 40 time, did one less bench rep, and was better in the short shuttle, vertical, and broad jumps. And Moore is a 3-4 OLB, Jones a 4-3 SLB, which means Jones' role requires more explosive athleticism and long speed to succeed.

I suspect someone will take Jones in the 20s. They will regret it. At least Aaron Maybin was fast.

Where would you take him? 40's, 50's?

Wouldn't touch him before top of 3rd round, and that would require some serious convincing. First possible place I'd consider him is PIT in round 2.

[Icness]

Also, any insight into Logan Ryan from Rutgers? He's got a huge range in mocks, some guys have him as a late 1st and others in the 3rd/4th round

Just watched Rutgers/Louisville game and took some notes on him, plus a couple other games. Boundary corner that almost never had help over the top, primarily played outside technique to force WR inside to help. Confident guy. Good feet, decent hips, can turn and run. Aggressive with ball in the air and can go get the ball up high and down low. Very good field awareness. Not explosive athletically but not slow. Best in off-man coverage, can't press at all. Looked edgy and uncomfortable in passive zone shell, and he gets impatient in man at times too. Not very physical and tackles like a guy trying to protect himself instead of inflicting pain. I'm in the midst of ordinating and grading DBs but I'm comfortable with him in the 2nd round, 40-55 range.

[Roger Murdock]

I wouldn't touch Tavon Austin in the first two rounds. Theres no precedent for a player of his size ever getting drafted high. Most people his size go undrafted. YAC is the hardest thing to translate the NFL. Hes not going to run circles around defenders in the worst defensive conference and hes not going to be playing with the best quarterback in an air raid offense anymore either. Even the small guys he gets compared to are 2-3 inches taller, 10-25% heavier, struggled their first few years in the league, and wouldn't be worth a top 10 pick anyways.

I can't help but think if the same exact prospect went to somewhere like North Texas he would be a boarderline 7th rounder.

I think elite explosiveness is one of the easier things to identify and it usually translates. Austin has explosive speed and quickness, his size is worrisome but I think he's definitely worthy of a first round pick.

His average catch was less than 4 yards out in college and he averaged around 8 yac. Thats simply not going to happen in the NFL. I have almost no faith in Tavon Austin running routes beyond the sticks. To utalize him properly you will need to scheme specific plays to him. If you are running a normal play and asking him to line up, run a regular route, and beat his guy I don't think he can do it. He didn't in college.

Small frame
Pathetic catch radius

I'm not spending a top 64 pick on someone with ridiculous limitations.

[Roger Murdock]

Did people really ever consider Jarvis Jones athletic? I think hes an excellent player, if we thought he was athletic he would be a no brainer top 5 pick because he can make plays and is instinctive and smart. I though athleticism was always his concern.

I think hes a 4-3 SOLB and will be a good one. Probably a second rounder IMO, largely also because of positional value.

[Worm Guts]

Percy Harvin had a lot of the same issues as Austin and was an MVP candidate during the first half of the season. Harvins success is probably why Austin is to be drafted so high.

[PurpleJesus]

When viewing mock drafts I've noticed a couple players with really wide draft ranges. For example Blidi Wreh-Wilson I've seen go as high as 23 to the Vikings in the first, but I've also seen him being selecting in the 3rd round. Another one is Alex Okafor in the early 2nd to 4th and Jordan Poyer in the 2nd to 4th round as well. Why are these certain players creating such a broad opinion of where they will be taken?

[Dalbi]

I recently saw someone say that there are at least 5 safeties that could start right away. What are your opinions of this and which safeties do you think could come in and start right away?

[Icness]

When viewing mock drafts I've noticed a couple players with really wide draft ranges. For example Blidi Wreh-Wilson I've seen go as high as 23 to the Vikings in the first, but I've also seen him being selecting in the 3rd round. Another one is Alex Okafor in the early 2nd to 4th and Jordan Poyer in the 2nd to 4th round as well. Why are these certain players creating such a broad opinion of where they will be taken?

Blidi Wreh Wilson is not going in the first two rounds, period. Dwayne Gratz will go before him.

But as for the others with wide ranges, and there are a lot of them, it's very dependent this year on how teams evaluate players. The guy who is 25th on one board can very realistically be 70th on another. Johnathan Hankins and Markus Wheaton are other examples like that, along with Okafor like you mentioned. Matt Elam and Logan Ryan too. I can see any of those guys going 30 or 65 and wouldn't argue hard against it for the most part (I'm not a Wheaton fan).

Team fit is part of it. No real differentiation of talent within draft tiers is part of it. Valid questions on pretty much everyone is part of it.

[Icness]

I recently saw someone say that there are at least 5 safeties that could start right away. What are your opinions of this and which safeties do you think could come in and start right away?

Cyprien is a Day One starter, no question. He can play either safety spot. The hype has gotten a little high with him but I'll reiterate he is the best safety I've seen at the 5 Senior Bowl weeks I've been to, and it isn't really close.

Vaccaro will be a Day One starter. I'm not his biggest fan but he is certainly a strong man cover corner. Needs some zone discipline and he overruns a lot more plays than some will tolerate. He's a rich man's Michael Huff.

I'm not sure anyone else can start right away. Eric Reid looks ready at times, other times not so much. In watching games to evaluate him I came to the conclusion he is one lucky SOB, but he helps make his own luck. Hard to project that going forward. 2nd round pick.

DJ Swearinger from South Carolina is probably lumped in there as a starter. Just finished my evaluation on him, have a late 2nd grade on him. Very good at times, very inconsistent about it. Saw two games where I would say he's a future Pro Bowler, others where he looked like a 6th rounder/career #3 safety. Doesn't tackle without leaving his feet and cannot change direction on the fly, limiting factors.

Matt Elam would have been a great NFL safety in the 80s and 90s, but the game has changed. He cannot cover well, poor instincts in coverage. Not as rangy as he thinks he is and that got the Gators in trouble at times. But the biggest problem is that he chronically and proudly leads with his head when he makes a tackle. Every time it's head down, shoulders back, launching for the kill shot. I think his teammate Josh Evans will have a longer NFL career, be it injuries, suspensions, or just plain effectiveness.

Both Georgia guys, Rambo and Shawn Williams, should become NFL starters at some point. Rambo is more ready but Williams looks like the better NFL player when all is said and done. Some people are really high on Shamarko Thomas from Syracuse but I'm not. I think he can play but is not superlative.

[Harry Palmer]

Hey Jeff-

Niners situation seems so wide open. Do you have any information about their priorities? Or if not, what's your take?

I can see it going a few ways:

1) BPA for a while, use extra picks to move up and snatch big time droppers.
2) Roll back a la Patriots of old.
3) Go heavy on DL early and often, after that 1/2.
4) Target a handful of guys and put together packages to get them.
5) Go DL/DB, then WR, then BPA.
6) At some point draft a TE.

Etc. Sorry for the long list, just so damned many picks and unlikelihood we use them all, so it seems to me inevitable we'll be very active.

[Icness]

What I think the Niners are going to do:
--add at least one corner that can play right away, if not start
--add a field-stretching WR that is better than Lockette or Kyle Williams
--replace Sopoaga
--get at least one rotational DE
--get a backup QB that I would bet good $$ winds up being Matt Scott
--OL depth

I suspect they keep one of the first two picks and go DL, trade the other for picks not in this draft. The rest is all about what they think is value. I'll say this: I stood next to Trent Baalke for awhile during a Senior Bowl practice and he was watching the corner drills with great attention, even asked one of his scouts about a couple of them.

[Manhattan Project]

Using the power of hindsight, do you think the Browns using a second round pick on Josh Gordon was worth it? Or would you rather use that pick for a WR sitting there this year? Also while talking WR's, how is it that Austin and Patterson have surpassed Keenan Allen with such ease over these past few months? Did the injury to Allen really hurt him that much?

[Harry Palmer]

What I think the Niners are going to do:
--add at least one corner that can play right away, if not start
--add a field-stretching WR that is better than Lockette or Kyle Williams
--replace Sopoaga
--get at least one rotational DE
--get a backup QB that I would bet good $$ winds up being Matt Scott
--OL depth

I suspect they keep one of the first two picks and go DL, trade the other for picks not in this draft. The rest is all about what they think is value. I'll say this: I stood next to Trent Baalke for awhile during a Senior Bowl practice and he was watching the corner drills with great attention, even asked one of his scouts about a couple of them.

Thanks a ton, mate. You're the best.

[Icness]

Using the power of hindsight, do you think the Browns using a second round pick on Josh Gordon was worth it? Or would you rather use that pick for a WR sitting there this year? Also while talking WR's, how is it that Austin and Patterson have surpassed Keenan Allen with such ease over these past few months? Did the injury to Allen really hurt him that much?

I think that if you consider Josh Gordon as a rookie in '13 he will be the most productive WR in the class in terms of yards and YPC. Showed in the final 5-6 games last year he is very capable of being a legit #1 WR. Well worth the investment IMO.

Allen's injury has really hurt him. What is killing him is that every time he's supposed to do anything in a workout he tweaks it and is out for another 2-3 weeks; that's been going on since December and he's still not right. That kind of stuff raises eyebrows, as in "why he is so afraid to run?" Justified or not (I don't know the answer there) that is the perception he's got right now in NFL camps.

Patterson is the same kind of WR and he's clearly faster and more explosive off the line than Allen. Austin is a multi-use weapon like Eric Metcalf was for Belichick in Cleveland and that gives him huge value. He can play in the slot, be the 3rd down RB, return punts & kicks. Quickest player within a phone booth that I've ever scouted. His start/stop move and ability to explode out of cuts laterally is unprecedented.

[DocRI]

What I think the Niners are going to do: I suspect they keep one of the first two picks and go DL, trade the other for picks not in this draft.

Dear Jeff —

Out of curiosity, how do teams value picks in future drafts? For instance, one copy of the infamous "Draft Pick Value Chart" I found online valued picks #31 & #34 (which the Niners hold) at 1,160 total points; that's about the value of the 13th overall pick (1,150). Now, say you're the Detroit Lions (both of our favorite team), who hold the #5 pick this year, which is valued at 1,700. If the Lions offered San Fran NEXT YEAR'S first round pick for picks #31 & #34, how would the Niners value it? Would they assume the Lions will finish with a pick higher than #13 next season, making the trade a win for them? Or would they assume the Lions will improve after having four of the top 36 picks this year, dropping their 2014 first rounder low enough that they'd be giving up too much for it?

In the NBA, teams trading future picks usually put "protection" on them, meaning that if their team is bad enough and/or gets lucky in the draft lottery to land a higher pick than expected they defer sending it along. I've never heard of such protection when it comes to trading future NFL draft picks, so how do the G.M.'s do it? It just seems like such a crap shoot for both parties since neither truly knows the value of what's being traded.

Thanks as always for all the great reading.

[Icness]

The draft chart question is an excellent and difficult one. Some teams (think BUF with Buddy Nix, WAS with Bruce Allen, the Bengals) still cling to that older value chart that places a big premium on top 10 picks. A lot of the more analytic younger guys (Emery in CHI, Grigson in IND) flattened the values so they don't spike so high at the top or fall off so quickly.

NFL teams spend a tremendous amount of resources trying to figure out which teams are going to be interested in which players and where they would have to move in order to get that player. That's what a team paid me (veyr little) to do, essentially run hundreds of mocks and feel around to figure out what ranges players were going to go in. Some teams use interns, some use contract consultants; Al Davis just didn't give a crap.

The "how is the team whose picks we are getting going to do" part of it is something that is less a factor in the NFL than the NBA, mainly because it's harder to predict NFL futures than NBA futures. I had the Chiefs as a 10-6 team and the Colts as no better than 5-11 last year and look how that turned out. And I allegedly know this game pretty well

[gswhoops]

So, hypothetically, let's say you had the Bills in a user mock draft and were looking at QBs for the #41 pick. Who would you look at and why?

(Confession time: this may not be entirely hypothetical)

[Icness]

So, hypothetically, let's say you had the Bills in a user mock draft and were looking at QBs for the #41 pick. Who would you look at and why?

(Confession time: this may not be entirely hypothetical)

I have three QBs in the top 50 ratings, Smith, Wilson and Barkley in that order. Smith will be long gone and I expect Barkley will be too. That leaves Tyler Wilson, who has a lot to like but some legit detractions that make him extremely risky even in the 3rd round. I wouldn't hate you for taking Zac Dysert there but it's a round too high.

You cannot take Ryan Nassib there, or God forbid EJ Manuel. In real life Nassib would be the pick because Marrone coached him, though it would be neat to see him pass on Nassib and all the draft talking heads carry on about what message that sends.

Better value in the 3rd. Take a corner, a WR, or a replacement for Levitre in the 2nd. Get Wilson, Dysert or Manuel in the 3rd. If Barkley is still around in your draft take him in the 2nd, but understand that's not at all realistic.