Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

Dark Faze · Post #861 » by **Dark Faze** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:20 am

I actually think Vesely can contribute if he plays with a PG that can set things up. He's got potential to be a good defender and his passing and finishing abilities are okay.

Problem is this is probably the worst team he could be on for development. He has to beat out Booker/Seraphin/Nene/Okafor. It's petty much impossible.

Post #862 » by **nate33** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:23 am

Rafael122 wrote:NONE of the potential lottery picks have shown anything in this tournament. This is going to be a very interesting draft process.

I wonder if any stat geeks have done any analysis on whether good Tournament play correlates to success at the NBA level. My guess is that players get noticed in the Tournament and may rise or fall in the draft accordingly, but there is very little correlation to actual production at the NBA level. The point is: you evaluate a player based on their performance over the entire season. A strong or a weak Tournament is probably irrelevant.

Dark Faze · Post #863 » by **Dark Faze** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:23 am

Rafael122 wrote:NONE of the potential lottery picks have shown anything in this tournament. This is going to be a very interesting draft process.

What? Olynyk carried his team who were vomiting all over themselves until the last few minutes when they hit some timely shots. He had 21-10.

mhd · Post #864 » by **mhd** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:36 am

I remember Antonio McDyess vaulting himself out of nowhere to be the 2nd pick in the draft after everyone saw him play. However, I think the tournament (and 1 game) should not hinder your evaluations.

sfam · Post #865 » by **sfam** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:17 am

nate33 wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:NONE of the potential lottery picks have shown anything in this tournament. This is going to be a very interesting draft process.

I wonder if any stat geeks have done any analysis on whether good Tournament play correlates to success at the NBA level. My guess is that players get noticed in the Tournament and may rise or fall in the draft accordingly, but there is very little correlation to actual production at the NBA level. The point is: you evaluate a player based on their performance over the entire season. A strong or a weak Tournament is probably irrelevant.

Michael Jordan is probably the best counter example. Consider if he came out his first year - his tournament play was his highlight reel, including hitting the game winning shot against the Hoyas in the championship. His regular season his first year was rather pedestrian, as Smith featured Worthy and Perkins.

Liverbird · Post #866 » by **Liverbird** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:31 am

Dark Faze wrote:Is Olynyk the clear pick for us if we keep winning the way we are? If we finish 8,9, I don't know that there's anyone else out that is as good of a fit with the same upside.

To be honest, I'm biased towards him even with a top 5 pick. I'd pick Noel before him, but I don't know if I would pick Porter, Shabazz, or any other prospect before Olynyk for this team. Reason being that it's incredibly tough to pull Webster out of our lineup. The tandem of Webster and Beal moving forward is exactly the sort of shooting that Wall needs on the wings. I just don't know if Porter would crack the starting lineup with how good Webster would be for us.

On the other hand, we may have a big need at center if Okafor walks after next season, and our backups look bad other than Booker right now, who is injury prone.

Sorry DF but I have to disagree. IMO Olynyk is far too limited athletically to be effective. Slow of feet and thought. He's too slow defensively and will have difficultly offensively with the length and athleticism of the NBA bigs. I think he'll have a very limited career. There are better players in the draft who would satisfy the same need. Derek Nix for example can be had with a late second.

Liverbird · Post #867 » by **Liverbird** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:39 am

sfam wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:NONE of the potential lottery picks have shown anything in this tournament. This is going to be a very interesting draft process.

I wonder if any stat geeks have done any analysis on whether good Tournament play correlates to success at the NBA level. My guess is that players get noticed in the Tournament and may rise or fall in the draft accordingly, but there is very little correlation to actual production at the NBA level. The point is: you evaluate a player based on their performance over the entire season. A strong or a weak Tournament is probably irrelevant.

Michael Jordan is probably the best counter example. Consider if he came out his first year - his tournament play was his highlight reel, including hitting the game winning shot against the Hoyas in the championship. His regular season his first year was rather pedestrian, as Smith featured Worthy and Perkins.

Jordan did have a fantastic Sophomore year. If I recall correctly, Dwade Wade was drafted as high as he was based on his tournament performance....I digress however. What I believe we need to see is a player that will take over the game and not be overwhelmed by the circumstance. I want to see an Alpha Dog but have yet to see one. It disturbs me that Otto Potter was completely absent tonight.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #868 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:43 am

If Kansas doesn't win the second round is going to be boring for draftniks. They're getting a run from their money from WKU. UCLA is getting handled too.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #869 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:48 am

I'm watching UCLA, Shabazz is a surprisingly mediocre FT shooter. I'm also continuously frustrated by how often Larry Drew and Kyle Anderson make the wrong pass.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #870 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:33 am

I thought Porter was very classy in defeat when he spoke in his post game interviews. Pretty stark contrast from the rep Shabazz has--an egomaniac and a brand rather than an actual human being.

I really don't like all of the things that are coming to light about Shabazz. I don't want to add that kind of element into the locker room.

Post #871 » by **Ruzious** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:39 am

One player who I do think has helped himself dramatically - combined with his play in the ACC championship - is PJ Hairston. He's got just about the prettiest 3 point shot form I've ever seen (better than former teammate Harrison Barnes') - like budduh. JJ Redick quality. And he looks like he's gained a lot of confidence in his overall game. He and Reggie Bullock both can fill the Martell Webster role. I don't know if either comes out, but I think they've both solidified themselves as at least late 1sts if they come out.

Agree with Steve on Bazz. He really comes across coldly - not the kinda guy that you really want to be teammates with.

Dat2U · Post #872 » by **Dat2U** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 7:36 am

I wouldn't draft Bazz if we were picking 11th. Best bet is to go big. Olynyk reminds me of Chris Kaman. Steven Adams is 2nd best bet as a defensive center behind Noel. Cody Zeller may slip. Maybe Rudy Goubert is actually worth the look (I admittedly haven't checked on him recently). Alex Len may be there as well. Willie Cauley-Stein if he comes out too. We should have options for a young big late in the lottery. Right now I'd lean toward Adams, Zeller or Olynyk. No real solid favorite yet though.

Nivek · Post #873 » by **Nivek** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:52 am

nate33 wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:NONE of the potential lottery picks have shown anything in this tournament. This is going to be a very interesting draft process.

I wonder if any stat geeks have done any analysis on whether good Tournament play correlates to success at the NBA level. My guess is that players get noticed in the Tournament and may rise or fall in the draft accordingly, but there is very little correlation to actual production at the NBA level. The point is: you evaluate a player based on their performance over the entire season. A strong or a weak Tournament is probably irrelevant.

David Berri discusses this in WoW, I think. Maybe on the blog. At any rate, he found that players who do well in the NCAA tourney get picked higher in the draft, but don't have better NBA careers than similar players who don't have good/deep tournament runs in their draft year.

payitforward · Post #874 » by **payitforward** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:21 pm

Nivek wrote:
nate33 wrote:I wonder if any stat geeks have done any analysis on whether good Tournament play correlates to success at the NBA level. My guess is that players get noticed in the Tournament and may rise or fall in the draft accordingly, but there is very little correlation to actual production at the NBA level. The point is: you evaluate a player based on their performance over the entire season. A strong or a weak Tournament is probably irrelevant.

David Berri discusses this in WoW, I think. Maybe on the blog. At any rate, he found that players who do well in the NCAA tourney get picked higher in the draft, but don't have better NBA careers than similar players who don't have good/deep tournament runs in their draft year.

I think he talks about it in his second book, Stumbling on Wins. But, it's not players who do well but players whose teams do well, that get picked higher than they "should" be.

Correct, Nate -- tournament performance has no significant correlation to production as an NBA player.

Post #875 » by **Ruzious** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:31 pm

Nivek wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:NONE of the potential lottery picks have shown anything in this tournament. This is going to be a very interesting draft process.

I wonder if any stat geeks have done any analysis on whether good Tournament play correlates to success at the NBA level. My guess is that players get noticed in the Tournament and may rise or fall in the draft accordingly, but there is very little correlation to actual production at the NBA level. The point is: you evaluate a player based on their performance over the entire season. A strong or a weak Tournament is probably irrelevant.

David Berri discusses this in WoW, I think. Maybe on the blog. At any rate, he found that players who do well in the NCAA tourney get picked higher in the draft, but don't have better NBA careers than similar players who don't have good/deep tournament runs in their draft year.

If you take out juniors and seniors from his equation, is the answer different - keeping in mind that nowadaze most of the top prospects are freshmen and sophomores - with an emphasis on freshmen? And is the reverse true - about players who supposedly get picked lower in the draft because of poor tourney performances?

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #876 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:33 pm

manifested wrote:Listening on the radio, but it sounds like McDermott is helping his cause today. 17 points, 7 rebounds so far and it's only a few minutes into the second half.

The Wizards should draft Doug McDermott. I would not be unhappy if he were a first round pick at around 11.

He will not miss many shots from anywhere. Wall's passing and Nene's passing are perfect for the way he moves on the court.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #877 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:36 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:Bennett's production this year actually gets more impressive when you realize, UNLV had no ability to run plays for him and was full of chuckers who didn't want to. Putting up dominant scoring numbers (22 per 40) had to be pretty hard. I saw UNLV vs CSU in person in February and I was shocked when for the first 10 minutes of the game, Bennett's total time with a hand on a ball was like 2 seconds. I mean if you have a team that doesn't even try to run a play through its star player once for his entire first burn until he sits, that's a problem. Got a little better in the 2nd half and ended with a 8 pt game which disappointed me, but I don't blame for it, other than not being good yet at establishing position in the post. Colton Iverson was the class of the game by far, I wouldn't be surprised if he sticks in the NBA.

Neither would I. Colton Iverson is very underrated.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #878 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:41 pm

Dat2U wrote:When I watch Bennett play. I see someone that looks like Larry Johnson, but honestly he reminds more like a young Rodney Rogers. I think he may be okay as a face up 4, but defense will always be a concern. Maybe I'm underestimating his offensive potential right now.

Dat, that is a very good comparison. Bennett is about the same size as Rogers was and their games are very similar. Rogers could score and with range but he wasn't a beast inside. He didn't rebound or defend particularly well in the NBA, and despite his body he settled for a lot of jumpers.

popper · Post #879 » by **popper** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:45 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
manifested wrote:Listening on the radio, but it sounds like McDermott is helping his cause today. 17 points, 7 rebounds so far and it's only a few minutes into the second half.

The Wizards should draft Doug McDermott. I would not be unhappy if he were a first round pick at around 11.

He will not miss many shots from anywhere. Wall's passing and Nene's passing are perfect for the way he moves on the court.

If we did draft him I wonder what position he would play? If they slot him at PF then we would need to trade Singleton. Maybe Singleton and one of our second round picks to move up. McDermott could become that stretch four that we covet.

popper · Post #880 » by **popper** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:52 pm

Ruzious wrote:One player who I do think has helped himself dramatically - combined with his play in the ACC championship - is PJ Hairston. He's got just about the prettiest 3 point shot form I've ever seen (better than former teammate Harrison Barnes') - like budduh. JJ Redick quality. And he looks like he's gained a lot of confidence in his overall game. He and Reggie Bullock both can fill the Martell Webster role. I don't know if either comes out, but I think they've both solidified themselves as at least late 1sts if they come out.

Agree with Steve on Bazz. He really comes across coldly - not the kinda guy that you really want to be teammates with.

Hairston impressed the hell out of me. Would love to pick him up in the second round if he comes out.