The OFFICIAL rookie impressions thread pt.III

[jinishima]

Depending on how Davis can develop his body I think he will be a better player than Dwight.
If you recall Dwight wasn't huge as a rookie either, and Davis' frame looks like it would fill out much like Dwights with the wide shoulders/long arms.

Davis has a bigger wingspan though Dwight has a slight edge in standing reach.

Davis actually has a far more developed offensive skillset in terms of being able to handle the ball, shoot and utilize finesse moves around the basket. He's also not a liability at the free throw line. His production this season is pretty close to that of Dwight his rookie year.

Yeah, Defensively it may be a push(Dwight may be slightly better overall. MAYBE) but offensively, Davis will be far better than Dwight ever has been and that will make him the better player overall. In time, it'll show

Is Davis so good already why doesn't he get more minutes and why do they only have 24 wins?

He's proven to have a bit of a fragile body so far and his coach is a bit weird too.

Nah, Monty's not weird. But ur right, Davis hasnt been so durable this yr(took some tuff shots from Z-Bo tonite) and thats y Monty dosent give him starter minutes, until he gets more beef so he can endure being down low night in and night out. Most likely he'll get starter minutes next yr

[nin10doe]

What makes Davis a better player now than Lillard?

The fact that "If he played 35 MPG" you are assuming he would average 16.5/10/2? By the way, which is statistically no more special than what Lillard is doing right now.

In that case I raise you Drummond. If he was getting 35 MPG he would be 15/15/4. Clearly better than Davis is now.


Give me a break. Davis is good but put away your jump to conclusions mat

Davis is actually averaging 17/10/2blks in games he's played 30+ minutes this season. No projections needed.

His PER is also top 10 all time for rookie big men that have played at least 25 mpg. Everybody ahead of him on the list is also at least 2-3 years older than him, except Shaq and Webber who were a year older.

[BlazeSK]

Players like Lillard are not exactly uncommon. Plenty of good PGs in the league, some of them can play defense as well.

Yes, ROOKIES like Lillard, who breaks records often enough and puts up stats that have only been put up by few before is definitely not uncommon. Good call. And it's not like his D can improve.

[lobosloboslobos]

Davis is actually averaging 17/10/2blks in games he's played 30+ minutes this season. No projections needed.

His PER is also top 10 all time for rookie big men that have played at least 25 mpg. Everybody ahead of him on the list is also at least 2-3 years older than him, except Shaq and Webber who were a year older.

FYI as pointed out in a thread about Valanciunas on the raps board:

in 12 games with 30+ mpg he is producing: 12.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.6 bpg

Davis averages about 13 shots a game in those 30minute+ games whereas Jonas is averaging about 8 shots in his. So that 17 to 13 ppg disparity actually indicates Jonas is far more offensively efficient, given it takes Davis 5 more shots to get 4 more points. JV's FG% is 61% in those games, much higher than Davis. Also, Davis has played a dozen games of more than 35 minutes whereas Jonas has played only one, which helps Davis' rebound and block totals by way of comparison to JV who is playing less minutes in those 30+ games.

Not taking anything away from Davis, a monster player. But Jonas Valunciunas is a monster too. And he's also only 20.

[Dame Lizard]

Players like Lillard are not exactly uncommon.

That just discredits anything else you say.

I swear this board has had the same discussion over and over again.

Davis has more potential than Lillard, and I've got very high confidence that he will be the better player than Lillard, however....... Lillard is the stand-out ROY and that's all there is to it.

You can't just say "IF Davis played more minutes earlier on, or IF he didn't get injured", because guess what, that's what happened and that's what is on the table when deciding the ROY award.

[Jsun947]

Anthony Davis has only played 10 games this season at 35+ minutes. He's played less than 35 minutes 44 games.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out if he's being left in those games he's probably had a good enough impact to justify it.

You are skewing the numbers in His favor by neglecting that he rarely gets those opportunities for a reason.

[Shem]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqvs2bH7ONc[/youtube]

[orangeparka]

Stop overreacting to what ONE guy says lmao.

No one's taking ROY from Lillard at this point.

Davis is phenomenal. You can't even find many starting big men in the league averaging 17/10/2 per36 (are there any, come to think of it?), but he's only played 55 games and is only playing 28mpg. Just give it up.

[rockmanslim]

This Lillard kid is an absolute joy to watch. The only guy in the league with a prettier game is Kyrie.

Enjoy:

Spoiler:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL5XiJGmJ8E[/youtube]

Spoiler:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGlOBCNHYvE[/youtube]

[Pablonis]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uc3M2Lx9dRk[/youtube]

[lobosloboslobos]

Anthony Davis has only played 10 games this season at 35+ minutes. He's played less than 35 minutes 44 games.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out if he's being left in those games he's probably had a good enough impact to justify it.

You are skewing the numbers in His favor by neglecting that he rarely gets those opportunities for a reason.

No not skewing. Just pointing out that if we're comparing ppg and rbds in games where two guys played 30 minutes+ that AD is often playing about 5 more minutes than JV (say 37 rather than 32) and this is relevant in the comparison.

It says nothing about whether they deserve to play more.

[Brapman]

Davis is NOT a pure C. He's a PF. Expecting him to end up with Dwight Howard strength is wishful thinking.

Drummond is the C in this draft and Davis is the PF. Both are going to be elite players. But please, have some reality here regarding their positions.

[jinishima]

Davis is NOT a pure C. He's a PF. Expecting him to end up with Dwight Howard strength is wishful thinking.

Drummond is the C in this draft and Davis is the PF. Both are going to be elite players. But please, have some reality here regarding their positions.

AD will prolly be the C of the Pelicans in the very near future. The way the league is moving positions are getting destroyed , and the C position shows it the most. Guys like Bosh can play center now. There are no Ewings, Shaq's, Robinson's or Hakeems now. Davis isnt a Pure C true, but what is a Pure C now other than dwight or Hibbert?

[Copperhead]

Davis is NOT a pure C. He's a PF. Expecting him to end up with Dwight Howard strength is wishful thinking.

Drummond is the C in this draft and Davis is the PF. Both are going to be elite players. But please, have some reality here regarding their positions.

AD will prolly be the C of the Pelicans in the very near future. The way the league is moving positions are getting destroyed , and the C position shows it the most. Guys like Bosh can play center now. There are no Ewings, Shaq's, Robinson's or Hakeems now. Davis isnt a Pure C true, but what is a Pure C now other than dwight or Hibbert?

Haha. This is true. While I think Davis is best at the PF position in the NBA, at least right now, what actually classifies DeJuan Blair as a C? His weight? His rebounding abilities? Because it sure as hell ain't his height. JJ Hickson is being called a C for Portland. He's 6-9. What exactly is the definition of each 'position'?

[Hendrix]

Players like Lillard are not exactly uncommon. Plenty of good PGs in the league, some of them can play defense as well.

Yes, ROOKIES like Lillard, who breaks records often enough and puts up stats that have only been put up by few before is definitely not uncommon. Good call. And it's not like his D can improve.

TBH his records don't really mean anything. I'm not really a fan of 'records' that basically select a whole bunch of arbitrary criteria to create a super small list that compares players to all time greats. Lost of players can break those types of records.

And regarding the stats that "only been put up by a few before". I'm not a huge fan of PER, but it's decent enough at capturing box score stats, and translating it into a level playing field. He's a 22 y/o putting up a PER of 16.8. That is nice, but it's not something that has only been done by a few before. Here's a list of 84 rooks over the last 30 years that have done it or better. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

He's a very nice player. But, lets not act like he's some generational player that is smashing records left and right, and far above other players at his position. At the end of the day there is a lot of other PG's at his level or better, and a lot of rooks that have accomplished what he has.

[Jsun947]

In the last 30 years the only rookie guards to average more ppg than Lillard is Tyreke Evans, Allen Iverson, and Mitch Richmond.

Stackhouse, Jordan, Harper, and Lebron are listed as G/F

The only other rookie Guards to average 19+ & 6.5+ is Iverson and Damon Stoudamire.


Maybe those numbers are arbitrary and maybe they aren't. Point Guard is the hardest position for a rookie to learn in the NBA and he's done it damn well.

[Hendrix]

In the last 30 years the only rookie guards to average more ppg than Lillard is Tyreke Evans, Allen Iverson, and Mitch Richmond.

Stackhouse, Jordan, Harper, and Lebron are listed as G/F

The only other rookie Guards to average 19+ & 6.5+ is Iverson and Damon Stoudamire.


Maybe those numbers are arbitrary and maybe they aren't. Point Guard is the hardest position for a rookie to learn in the NBA and he's done it damn well.

So, let me get this straight. I said that these types of lists where you select a whole bunch of criteria don't mean anything. You then countered this by posting lists that use a whole bunch of criteria?

Here is a list that places Valanciunas among only HOF, and all star bigs, like Shaq, Ming, Sabonis, etc.. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

Ditto Anthony Davis.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws


Charlie Villanueva's rookie season only duplicated by 5 others.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

Andrea Bargnani looking pretty elite
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws

When you have 5 different criteria to meet a list really isn't going to be all that long. You have guys like Tyreke, and Damon Stoudamire on there. It doesn't really mean anything.

He's a good player, but he's not some kind of historic rook.

[Elden Payton]

@ Hendrix

Well researched.

Point proven.

[deepeeenn]

Henrix...

You're being a bit ridiculous about his comment. As I can agree with some of your previous statement about taking stats an molding them into frivolous record breaking statements. Jsun947's argument doesn't prove your point. There is nothing bogus about using points and assists as a form of criterium to analyze a player, let alone a point guard (scoring PG). He uses Lillard's current statiistics in those categories as the standard. There is nothing wrong with what he did.

[Jsun947]

I compared a rookie guard to all rookie guards in the last 30 years.

Is points per game and assist per game too specific for you? Those are the only specifics.