Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[nuposse04]

I actually think he could be a better defender then Jamison...which isn't saying a lot...but it wouldn't be the worse thing in the world. He's quick enough to stay in front of most 4s so long he doesn't try to crowd them. He doesn't particularly have amazing leaping ability but he seems to have solid 6'8 frame, and what looks to average wingspan (DX has it at 6'8.5, meh). He'd be best utilized as a 6th man off the bench to get you buckets, nobody is going to draft him looking for the second coming of Shane Battier or anything.

[hands11]

So when is Ryan Kelly going to start playing some ball.

Dude is in a serious lump.

[Ruzious]

Zeller looks like a stick figure out there. Has he been working out at all? Honestly, Vesely looks more well built than Zeller does.

The guy isn't Horford out there, but he's obviously in great shape. He's heavier than Withey - who's 3 years older than him - and it's not fatty weight. The only 1st round center prospects who might be heavier (and probably not by more than 5 pounds) are Dieng and Plumlee, and they're also 3 years older than him. And Plumlee at his age was probably 20 lbs lighter than Zeller is now. Relatively speaking, Anthony Davis was a stick figure. He's playing ok in the NBA.

[Dat2U]

The advanced numbers say there's basically no way Zeller is a bust. Major conference. Ridiculous efficiency. Great both his frosh & soph seasons. He should be a good NBA player. The eye test isn't as clear. He's going to be a unique fit. I worry about his brother's struggles, because they both have similar issues with a lack of length but Cody has a more complete game. A better skill set. A better feel for passing and probably a tad more mobile.

I'd hesitate to draft Cody in the top 5 because of the lack of the ideal length, but if were picking around 9, 10 or 11, then I'm probably hoping he's still on the board.

By the way, have I mentioned that this is an ugly draft? It reminds me a lot of the 2000 draft with Kenyon Martin. I think there's likely a Marcus Fizer and Stromile Swift in the top 5 of this draft too.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wow, this is the first I've watched McDermott. He is really good. CCJ is right. He's going to be a steal if he is drafted anywhere near his projections. I really love how hard he works to get open. He is constantly moving, constantly throwing his body around to establish position. Never seems to get tired. And he has great touch around the basket. He will score at the NBA level, I guarantee it. I don't know if he'll be able to guard anyone, but he'll definitely get buckets. He should be a top 15 pick.

Where will he play ?

He isn't going to get those kind of touches in the NBA. 6-8

I am watching and keeping an open mind. He is active and he fights. Thats always a good thing.

Whoever gets him will get a young man that will leave it on the floor. That much you can see. He won't fail for lack of trying.

Plumlee hasn't been overly impressive so far. He needs to get stronger.

He's probably going to have to play stretch 4. Also, there are a lot of 3&D wings in this league who don't do much on offense except stand in the corner. He should be able to guard those guys too. He's definitely a guy who can come in handy late in games when teams go small.

He can also play a very seldom-used, situational, small ball C. Teams will have to cover McDermott far away from the basket. You cannot leave him open, which makes up for many baskets he's going to give up as a defender. McDermott is going to be deadly even from NBA three point range.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

McDermott won't be able to guard his own shadow (like Jamison) but he'll score and rebound (like Jamison). That's a good comparison nuposse...he does remind me a bit of AJ except with better ability to put the ball on the floor.

He doesn't have the quick bounce or the funky flip shots that Jamison does. He's not going to rebound anywhere near as well as Antawn. OTOH McDermott does box out and he does create a ton of contact. He will shoot a lot of free throws if he can keep to roll to the basket on Wall's drives.

McDermott has been double and triple teamed so much in college that I think he's going to be a surprisingly effective scorer in the NBA.

[Dat2U]

I feel real confident in saying the following guys will not last in the NBA very long. I would give each a "Do Not Draft" grade:

Michael Carter-Williams - Oversized PG with a broke jumper & suspect decision making skills. Is he a good defender or a product of the Boehiem 2/3? Has some natural talent at 6-7 but I don't think he's going to work at PG.

James McAdoo - Doesn't excel at anything. No real position. unpolished skillet. He's just a name. A talented 6-8 athlete that doesn't play college ball very well.

LeBryan Nash - Say hello to the next Joey Graham (Aka his best case scenario)

C.J. Leslie - Position less. Still hasn't developed enough skill to effective play the wing. Too skinny & small to play inside. Just another 6-8 run & jump athlete who will likely play overseas.

Phil Pressey - Decent sparkplug in the NCAA. Doesn't hit shot consistently enough to stick in the NBA. Not really an offensive threat. Maybe worth a summer league invite.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't think he will be able to guard anyone in man coverage but in a zone he might be ok. It's too bad because he's probably the most polished scorer in college basketball.

Well, Korver gets huge PT and he's a complete defensive liability out there. You will need to mask him for sure, but say you are playing the Grizz, you could easily stash him on Prince or Tony Allen; Phoenix (Dudley), Miami (Battier), Thunder (Thabo), etc.

I know McDermott will be a good role player. He'll be a great fit as a kick-out shooter for Wall.

Another role I foresee McDermott filling is that of a facilitator with the second unit. McDermott moves very well off the ball and he also finds cutters. He and Vesely seem like a good combination with Seraphin posting inside. I think McDermott can play the same role as a Luke Walton, even though he's been primarily a scorer in college. He can be a bit of a point forward.


Doug McDermott has an extremely high basketball IQ and because he keeps moving and keeps putting pressure on defenders he also creates scoring opportunities for his teammates who trail him and cut to the basket. He has taken a team with not much talent to the NCAAs a couple times. He would really excel with better teammates around him who can mask his defensive limitations and who can finish above the rim. Athletic teammates who must be guarded can also free up more space than McDermott has been getting due to NCAA double and triple teams. He's going to be able to stop and pop or dish to cutters in the NBA. I can't see him being less than a good role player in the NBA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I feel real confident in saying the following guys will not last in the NBA very long. I would give each a "Do Not Draft" grade:

Michael Carter-Williams - Oversized PG with a broke jumper & suspect decision making skills. Is he a good defender or a product of the Boehiem 2/3? Has some natural talent at 6-7 but I don't think he's going to work at PG.

James McAdoo - Doesn't excel at anything. No real position. unpolished skillet. He's just a name. A talented 6-8 athlete that doesn't play college ball very well.

LeBryan Nash - Say hello to the next Joey Graham (Aka his best case scenario)

C.J. Leslie - Position less. Still hasn't developed enough skill to effective play the wing. Too skinny & small to play inside. Just another 6-8 run & jump athlete who will likely play overseas.

Phil Pressey - Decent sparkplug in the NCAA. Doesn't hit shot consistently enough to stick in the NBA. Not really an offensive threat. Maybe worth a summer league invite.

+1

Early on I liked MCW's stats, but I'm with you, Dat. Don't draft him.

I think CJ Leslie could be a pick because he was Wall's HS teammate. I think there are a lot of better prospects on the wing. He can throw down great dunks, but he's not the best talent even among second round prospects IMO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Brandon Paul of Illinois has a really nice game. He's a solid NBA backup at SG IMO. Paul and Khalid Wyatt had strong showings in their final NCAA games. Both guys are draft-worthy.

Another guy who bowed out today, Jamaal Franklin, is a very impressive SG. Franklin to me looks like a borderline NBA star at SG. DX has him ranked 21 but I think he's right up there with my favorite players, CJ McCollum and Doug McDermott. Franklin's an absolutely sick rebounder and he's got a live body. His athleticism is going to shine in the NBA. Unfortunately, he also has had a DUI and he has more turnovers than assists with poor shooting from range. He's probably not a mature kid and his character should be scrutinized with a very thorough evaluation process before drafting him. He seems like an all world talent. He rocks the long sleeves like James Harden and he plays a bit like Harden, too.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jam ... lin-17500/

[hands11]

More like the 2001 draft. There are players in this draft but they are scattered all over the place.

As for Doug, I saw some Kyle Kover type action in him.

How is he coming off picks for a quick pop ?

I think as an NBA player he can forget that going to the basket stuff. He isn't athletic enough. He has great activity and a smart coach will us that by running him all over the floor off screens. He has good court awareness so he can find the soft spot of catch and pops. That would be his offense. I don't see an NBA team letting him handle the ball much. And because he has good actively, he will case down lose balls. I don't see him being used as a PF as much as a SF put out there to stretch the floor and make the defense work casing him down. If he is a dead eye shooter, then the defense will have to keep tabs on him.

[hands11]

Zeller looks like a stick figure out there. Has he been working out at all? Honestly, Vesely looks more well built than Zeller does.

The guy isn't Horford out there, but he's obviously in great shape. He's heavier than Withey - who's 3 years older than him - and it's not fatty weight. The only 1st round center prospects who might be heavier (and probably not by more than 5 pounds) are Dieng and Plumlee, and they're also 3 years older than him. And Plumlee at his age was probably 20 lbs lighter than Zeller is now. Relatively speaking, Anthony Davis was a stick figure. He's playing ok in the NBA.

He isn't heavier than Withey. They are listed as the same weight and I'm not even sure I believe that. Withey is stronger. You can see it. He has a more sturdy trunk. And he has longer arms. He is a better shot blocker.

Zeller is clearly the more aggressive offensive player around the basket. Guess is come down to, do you think his car wreck style of going to the basket will translate in the NBA. Will he get the calls or just look foolish as he falls to the ground.

I like the Hansbrough comparison. Only Hansbrough is a bull at 6-9 250 And he isn't a starter.

[BruceO]

in the end. we'll draft alex len. might as well discuss his positives, saw somewhere eg is high on him. With a 7 ft 1 frame thats added 30 pounds, ability according to the scouting reports due to size to block shots, defend the post. Quick enough to defend pick and roll. Has range on his shot ( could he be an ilgauskis?) and was trying to play with a fire like his idol kg. Assuming the college guard play has impacted his influence a la drummond, could he realistically be our next year pick? among him, zeller and noel who are the top C's he has length and defensive potential which zeller doesn't have, and has offensive potential which noel doesn't have and has played well against top C's. If he has this supposed basketball IQ scouting reports say..what say you guys? can we analyze his potential? we may be overlooking the choice EG will make thats a foundational neccesity

[Ruzious]

Zeller looks like a stick figure out there. Has he been working out at all? Honestly, Vesely looks more well built than Zeller does.

The guy isn't Horford out there, but he's obviously in great shape. He's heavier than Withey - who's 3 years older than him - and it's not fatty weight. The only 1st round center prospects who might be heavier (and probably not by more than 5 pounds) are Dieng and Plumlee, and they're also 3 years older than him. And Plumlee at his age was probably 20 lbs lighter than Zeller is now. Relatively speaking, Anthony Davis was a stick figure. He's playing ok in the NBA.

He isn't heavier than Withey. They are listed as the same weight and I'm not even sure I believe that. Withey is stronger. You can see it. He has a more sturdy trunk. And he has longer arms. He is a better shot blocker.

Zeller is clearly the more aggressive offensive player around the basket. Guess is come down to, do you think his car wreck style of going to the basket will translate in the NBA. Will he get the calls or just look foolish as he falls to the ground.

I like the Hansbrough comparison. Only Hansbrough is a bull at 6-9 250 And he isn't a starter.

Zeller IS heavier than Withey. Zeller weighed in at 240 in the offseason as a 19 year old, while Withey weighed in at the draft combo at 229 as a 22 year old.

From Mike DeCourcy's 7/3/12 column in The Sporting News http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basket ... ael-mcadoo

As some of his peers were striking it rich last week, the only apparent numerical increases for Indiana’s Cody Zeller involved his bench press, his vertical leap, his playing weight.
...
A 6-11 center, Zeller averaged 15.6 points and 6.6 rebounds and shot 62.3 percent from the floor as a freshman. He was chosen to Sporting News' all-freshman team and helped elevate Indiana from a 12-20 finish to 27 victories and a spot in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16.

Since concluding his freshman season with 20 points and seven rebounds in a breathtaking 102-90 loss to eventual NCAA champion Kentucky, Zeller has “attacked”—Crean’s word—his training regimen for the 2012-13 season. Zeller’s weight is up to 240 pounds, his vertical jump to 39 inches and he recently managed 20 reps of 185 pounds on the bench press—more than his older brother, Tyler, managed at the NBA Scouting Combine.

[nate33]

Since concluding his freshman season with 20 points and seven rebounds in a breathtaking 102-90 loss to eventual NCAA champion Kentucky, Zeller has “attacked”—Crean’s word—his training regimen for the 2012-13 season. Zeller’s weight is up to 240 pounds, his vertical jump to 39 inches and he recently managed 20 reps of 185 pounds on the bench press—more than his older brother, Tyler, managed at the NBA Scouting Combine.

Those are extremely impressive numbers for a 7-footer (or 6-11, as the case may be). So impressive that I don't believe them. Nobody 6-11 or higher has ever benched 20 reps in the DX Database and only 21 guys of any height have benched 20 reps. Those numbers say that Zeller is just as strong as Horford, Blake Griffin, Jae Crowder and Carl Landry.

He's also one of the greatest leaping big men in history. Only 1 player in the DX database 6-11 or taller has a vertical leap 39" or greater (Miles Plumlee).

Nobody in the history of the NBA combine has ever possessed Zeller's combination of strength and leaping ability, at any height. No one is really even close. And then throw in his 6-11 height and Zeller may well be the most gifted athlete in the history of the NBA.

[tontoz]

Josh Smith's vertical was measured at 39" at the combine. There is no way Zeller has a 39" vertical.

[Benjammin]

^^^I think his vertical might be closer to 29 than 39 (slight exaggeration) to be honest if I had to pick one number or the other. It's probably around 33-34.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah, those are Shawn Kemp numbers. I don't see it.

[stevemcqueen1]

How can I tell he can't create his own shot? Because he hasn't done so effectively when he's tried. His handle is very rudimentary. No creativity whatsoever off the bounce. The handle is his downfall and that's the biggest weakness a guard could have. Please show me an all-star or near all-star quality guard currently in the NBA with extremely limited handle?

As for the complements he gets... don't believe the hype. Who cares what Charles thinks? Charles though Eddie Jordan was a great NBA coach, lol. Who cares what Bill Self says? Of course he's going to speak glowingly about the player he's coaching right now!

His so-called passivity comes from what he's not able to do. He's the rare kid that knows his flaws and plays within himself. IMO, that's what makes him somewhat unusual or unique. Not the athleticism, not the shooting ability not some great skillset which he really doesn't have. It's his b-ball IQ. The intelligence and maturity not to do the things he can't do. That could make him a pretty damn good role player. He could be a knock down spot up shooter at the next level.

But he'll never be a star. And he's not worthy of a top 5 pick.

Man this thread moves fast. I wake up this morning and this exchange is already buried, but I think it's worth sussing out because you make some some valid points but I don't agree with your conclusions.

First off, how can you really tell he struggles to create his own shot? When has he had the opportunity to do so? Self runs a very structured offense with for all intents and purposes, no ISO sets for McLemore (or virtually any of the players). The team never just passes him the ball and says, "now go score." They run sets every trip down in the half court where McLemore spends the whole time running off screens or spotting up on the wings or plays a decoy role.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh0BS5O1U7I[/youtube]

How is McLemore's scoring in this game much different than the way this guy scores in this game:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA6EFWaXkHQ[/youtube]

It's a bunch of jumpers off spot ups, dribble pull ups, curls off screens, cuts, and straight line drives. Ray Allen never breaks anyone down with his handle in an ISO set. He doesn't really attack multiple defenders off the bounce. Almost all of his looks come from working off the ball or from ball screens and straight line drives.

Second, Bill Self calling him the most talented kid he's ever coached goes way above and beyond normal coach speak. If anything, coaches rarely make absolute statements like that. You poopoo Chuck too, but Chuck is damn good. He does his homework and knows the game as well as anyone who has ever played it and he actually has a solid track record spotting NCAA talent and translating it to the NBA. He understands how both the college and pro game work and the overlaps and divergences between them.

So why isn't McLemore more consistently dominant? Could it simply be that he's a freshman who was a late bloomer playing for a big time, senior-laden team and he doesn't have the confidence or experience to do it? It's a boring answer, but I think it's the simplest explanation and the most accurate. I don't think major deficiencies in his skill set are holding him back. He's dropped way too many 20 and 30 point games this year to justify that. And I don't get the sense from watching him he's a mature player or has a well developed bball IQ. If anything, he looks young to me and is still very much developing his feel for the game.

[nate33]

McDermott has been double and triple teamed so much in college that I think he's going to be a surprisingly effective scorer in the NBA.

I gotta agree with this. Duke did everything in their power to try and limit his touches and double him when he had the ball. They were face guarding him as soon as he got to half court. The fact that he even got off 16 shot attempts (and 12 FT attempts) was amazing in itself.

It kinda reminded me of when Stephen Curry was in college. Defenses devoted all resources to guarding him, sometimes doubling him when he didn't even have the ball.

Things are going to be much easier for McDermott at the NBA level with single coverage and good floor spacing. Defense is a huge question mark, but man can that guy play offense. Dude shoots 55% from the floor, 49% from 3, and 87% from the line. His upside might be Chris Mullen. His offensive stats are even better than Mullin's college stats, though strength of schedule is obviously a concern. Mullin also got more assists and steals. McDermott's anemic steals total is troubling.

Draft Express has him going 37th.
NBADraft.net has him going 17th.
The stat analysis guys don't like him much, probably due to the low steals and blocks. Ed Weiland ranks him 31st. I wonder what YODA says.

If he is available with our 2nd rounder, I'd definitely take him. I don't think he'll last quite that long. Hopefully, we can package our two 2nd rounders into a late 1st and grab him then, a la Trevor Booker.