How many wins is Kevin Garnett worth?

[ElGee]

Edit: In this thread, I'd like people to judge how many wins Kevin Garnett would add to an average (~41-win) team for each season of his career. If people are more comfortable using points (0 SRS) that's fine as well. So...

For each season of his career, how many wins (or SRS points) did Kevin Garnett add to a random, 41-win team (or 0 SRS team)?

Average teams are the most common lot of NBA teams. Imagine some teams have a Unipolar scorer (Iverson), some teams have a good big, etc. (Here are actual samples of what a ~0 SRS/41-win team looks like: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... der_by=srs Now add him to all of those teams -- some he will fit better on than others, this must be taken into account -- and take the average improvement. Write that new SRS number down next to the year!

Below is a template to copy and paste. 2 clarifications:

(1) Do not adjust the number for games played. If he plays 65g and during those games you think he made a 0 SRS team a 5 SRS team while on the court, write 5. Similarly, if you think he made a 41-win team a 54-team while on the court, write 54, don't try and adjust for the 17g they played at .500.

(2) If you think there is a change in playing quality over the course of the season, always write down how you think a player was playing at the end of the season. This includes injuries -- if a player is injured at the end of the season, write down the number that you think reflects his impact with this injury (eg Walton 78).

Have fun!

KG Template
1996 **Write improvement of average team here (in wins or SRS)**
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 INJ
2010
2011
2012

PS There are no wrong answers, so please don't spam people's results. If you disagree, ask them how they arrive at their conclusion, do not criticize it. This is a thread designed to catalog opinions.

[SideshowBob]

Without adjusting for games played.

1996 +0.0
1997 +1.5
1998 +2.5
1999 +3.5
2000 +4.0
2001 +5.0
2002 +5.5
2003 +7.0
2004 +7.5
2005 +7.5
2006 +7.0
2007 +7.0
2008 +7.0
2009 +6.5
2010 +4.0
2011 +4.5
2012 +4.5
2013 +4.5

First few years were toughest. I have Offensive/Defensive splits in my mind, but I'm more confident in some years than others so I decided to leave those out.

[SideshowBob]

Hope we see more responses. I think this is pretty instructive, it'd be interesting to do this with a multitude of players.

[E-Balla]

1996 0.0
1997 +0.5
1998 +1.0
1999 +2.0
2000 +3.0
2001 +3.0
2002 +4.5
2003 +6.0
2004 +6.0
2005 +5.0
2006 +5.0
2007 +5.5
2008 +5.0
2009 +1.5
2010 +1.5
2011 +2.5
2012 +2.5
2013 +2.0

SideshowBob why is your scale so high? Do you think current Garnett is good enough to turn the 2011 Rockets into contenders?

[SideshowBob]

Impact doesn't scale perfectly as the starting team strength increases. The 2011 Rockets are a +2.4 SRS team. Adding a +4.5 Garnett to that team WOULD NOT result in them being a 2.4 + 4.5 = 6.9 SRS team, they'd be a tad bit lower, around 6-6.5, and that's ONLY in the games he plays. From 2010-2012 he played in 87% of his regular season games. Account for that and the 2011 Rockets look like a 6 SRS team with Garnett. I don't know if I'd call that a contender in today's league, though I suppose that's pretty strong in 2011.

[colts18]

How many wins do you think peak KG would add to last year's Bobcats team that had a -13.96 SRS?

[E-Balla]

Impact doesn't scale perfectly as the starting team strength increases. The 2011 Rockets are a +2.4 SRS team. Adding a +4.5 Garnett to that team WOULD NOT result in them being a 2.4 + 4.5 = 6.9 SRS team, they'd be a tad bit lower, around 6-6.5, and that's ONLY in the games he plays. From 2010-2012 he played in 87% of his regular season games. Account for that and the 2011 Rockets look like a 6 SRS team with Garnett. I don't know if I'd call that a contender in today's league, though I suppose that's pretty strong in 2011.

My bad I meant the 2010 Rockets (-0.1 SRS). I get what you mean though. I personally adjusted for playing time and ability to carry a heavy load (both of which KG can't do anymore).

[ElGee]

I've updated the thread title and the question so it's a little simpler. WIns or SRS, it matters not -- the question is the same and it a basic one. Throw KG on a random team and what do you think his performance will look like.

[SideshowBob]

How do wins translate to SRS? I've never actually looked into this, as I always figured that the relationship isn't exactly a perfect one anyway, though I suppose a baseline is 0 SRS = 41 wins.

[jman2585]

Less than Duncan, more than Kobe.

[ElGee]

Less than Duncan, more than Kobe.

Please don't spam the thread. I'd love for you to answer the question being asked on a year-by-year basis about Kevin Garnett. Though this thread is only about Kevin Garnett, not Kobe Bryant nor Tim Duncan.

[Not Bias]

Less than Duncan, more than Kobe.

Please don't spam the thread. I'd love for you to answer the question being asked on a year-by-year basis about Kevin Garnett. Though this thread is only about Kevin Garnett, not Kobe Bryant nor Tim Duncan.

This guy is a troll, he's trying to bait kobe fans. Just try to ignore him.

[ElGee]

Hope we see more responses. I think this is pretty instructive, it'd be interesting to do this with a multitude of players.

In lieu of making a "project" out of it, I was planning on running a handful of these for the popular players on the board. Seems super instructive and a nice way to catalogue opinions for different people. Surprised so few people have answered given all the discussion about Garnett's career on this board... :/

[SideshowBob]

Yeah, I figured we'd see a bit more responses as well.

On the other hand, you've inspired me to spend the last 3 days expanding my own little mini-database with In/Out data as well as running this kind of exercise with a handful of players' careers. So I'm not one to complain

[JordansBulls]

Less than Duncan, more than Kobe.

But why are we bringing those players into this thread when we are talking specifically about KG?

[ardee]

I'm going to do this with SRS... Wins and SRS are not interchangeable in this sense I feel.

Just to note, I'm accounting for games missed.

1996-1999: Pre-prime years, have yet to analyze them
2000: +5.0
2001: +5.0
2002: +5.0
2003: +7.0
2004: +7.5
2005: +6.5
2006: +5.5
2007: +4.0 (others may not agree, just felt it was a down year by his standards even individually. His efficiency rather plummeted, big drop in advanced stats in every category, and most strikingly, for the first time the Wolves had neither a decent offense nor defense. Prior to this, he always had his team playing ok on least one side of the ball. This year they were putrid both ways, and it wasn't like he had an amazing cast earlier, it was basically as bad as it's always been. The raw numbers are of course there, but given he still dragged the previous year team to the 10th ranked defense and did nothing comparable this year, I see it as a drop-off, probably because he was getting demotivated by his terrible team)
2008: +6.0 (because of games missed)
2009: +4.0
2010: +3.5 (probably his worst year of the 2000s)
2011: +4.0
2012: +4.5

And just a question: can someone explain how he went from +20.7 in 2004 to +0.8 in 2005? I know '05 is still elite because of the fact that despite the injuries the Wolves were still almost Playoff material and the numbers, but why did his on-off drop so drastically?

[ElGee]

Ardee, I think drza had a post on the lineup patterns in 05 impacting that number. Can't remember off the top of my head though. His non-prio RAPM is around average...

re: games missed. I didn't want people to try and mentally adjust this because it's making it fuzzier/more complex. I'm simply asking "When he's in the lineup, how much do you think he helped the team?"

In your case, can I assume that you just did one extra step: a basic fractional calculation? As in, in 2008, you think Garnet would have made a team +7 if he played the whole season, but missing 14% of games dropped it to a +6?

[ElGee]

How do wins translate to SRS? I've never actually looked into this, as I always figured that the relationship isn't exactly a perfect one anyway, though I suppose a baseline is 0 SRS = 41 wins.

It's non-linear based on Oliver's formula in BOP. Here's what the translation looks into PWins:

Wins SRS
8 -15
9 -14
11 -13
12 -12
14 -11
15 -10
17 -9
19 -8
22 -7
24 -6
27 -5
29 -4
32 -3
35 -2
38 -1
41 0
44 1
47 2
50 3
53 4
55 5
58 6
60 7
63 8
65 9
67 10
68 11
70 12
71 13
73 14
74 15

[colts18]

It's non-linear based on Oliver's formula in BOP. Here's what the translation looks into PWins:

Wins SRS
8 -15
9 -14
11 -13
12 -12
14 -11
15 -10
17 -9
19 -8
22 -7
24 -6
27 -5
29 -4
32 -3
35 -2
38 -1
41 0
44 1
47 2
50 3
53 4
55 5
58 6
60 7
63 8
65 9
67 10
68 11
70 12
71 13
73 14
74 15

So based on that scale and the research I've done, the average star of a title team is taking a -1 to 0 SRS team and propping it up to 6-6.5 SRS when he is playing. a 6-7 SRS impact. That seems about right.

[ardee]

re: games missed. I didn't want people to try and mentally adjust this because it's making it fuzzier/more complex. I'm simply asking "When he's in the lineup, how much do you think he helped the team?"

In your case, can I assume that you just did one extra step: a basic fractional calculation? As in, in 2008, you think Garnet would have made a team +7 if he played the whole season, but missing 14% of games dropped it to a +6?

Yeah that's exactly it.