Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LII "Lottery/Draft" Edition)

[Bensational]

Blake Griffin has had 3 knee surgeries in the past 5 years, and also missed his entire rookie season. Is anyone afraid to take a chance on him? If you don't like Noel, it's cool. But the knee shouldn't be the reason.

Blake Griffin missed 2 months to a sprain to his left knee, and 1 week to torn cartilidge in his right knee - Noel is missing anywhere from 6 months onwards. Griffin's other injury was to his kneecap, so none of those injuries are directly related, whereas Noel's is to the same knee. Griffin isn't as durable as you'd like a star to be, and he plays so recklessly that it's only a matter of time until he's hurt again, IMO. But, Griffin also has an NBA body that could handle the rigors of NBA players. Noel struggles against some college bigs, how's he going to handle a rehab on his knee THEN come back to getting pushed around by NBA forwards straight away?

listing players who have successfully come back from injury doesn't take the risk away. i'd wager that more players that show a history of injury throughout their career don't go on to be durable, reliable players.

And Ben, what about Kyrie Irving? Also IIRC Michael Jordan broke his foot his second year in the league.

Kyrie Irving had an injury to his big toe, not his knee, and he was able to show he could return in top form in time for the sweet 16. but even now, Kyrie is looking like the kind of player who's always going to have niggling injuries throughout his career, just like Jameer, and just like Rose.

What about Greg Oden? What about Bynum? What about Amare? What about Tmac? What about McDyess? guys that have all had, or developed issues with durability throughout their careers, and whos careers suffered as a result.

The difference is that we've got a decent amount of forewarning with this, because we can see Noel's history. Would I like to be the GM who watches Noel become the defense only version of Garnett and have a long successful career for another team? No. Would I prefer that to being the GM that drafted him with a #1 pick only to see him retire 3 years in, ala Oden? You're damn right I would.

We're on ground zero, we should really minimize all risk.

[Bensational]

Obviously none of us are doctors and we're doing nothing but speculating, but Hennigan will do his homework regardless. I wouldn't even mind if we selected him and he didn't step on the court at all next year. Have him work with Magic training staff to get bigger, stronger, and get his leg back to normal.Then in 2014 if we get Wiggins/Parker/Randle and a fresh Noel, we'd be looking pretty good.

exactly. if we draft him, then i'll feel confident Hennigan feels the knee isn't a concern, and i won't be as wary of it.

[OrlChamps2030]

And Ben, what about Kyrie Irving? Also IIRC Michael Jordan broke his foot his second year in the league.

Kyrie Irving had an injury to his big toe, not his knee, and he was able to show he could return in top form in time for the sweet 16. but even now, Kyrie is looking like the kind of player who's always going to have niggling injuries throughout his career, just like Jameer, and just like Rose.

What about Greg Oden? What about Bynum? What about Amare? What about Tmac? What about McDyess? guys that have all had, or developed issues with durability throughout their careers, and whos careers suffered as a result.

The difference is that we've got a decent amount of forewarning with this, because we can see Noel's history. Would I like to be the GM who watches Noel become the defense only version of Garnett and have a long successful career for another team? No. Would I prefer that to being the GM that drafted him with a #1 pick only to see him retire 3 years in, ala Oden? You're damn right I would.

We're on ground zero, we should really minimize all risk.

I was just naming a few names man.. It's all just just speculation. I don't think any two players are the same. I also think Noel is an exceptional athlete and is young + hungry which separates him from a lot of other players/prospects. You seem to have a lot of concerns.. all of these concerns will be alleviated just because we draft him?

I'm not gonna speculate on medical issues. Until Noel is officially red-flagged by top 5 teams I will treat this injury like a normal ACL injury. I trust the Magic's brain trust.

When you say "minimize all risk", are you implying that risk = injury or injury is one of the risks you want to minimize? Because in this weak draft there are quite a few "risky" players projected to be lotto picks IMO

[RookieStar]

Obviously none of us are doctors and we're doing nothing but speculating, but Hennigan will do his homework regardless. I wouldn't even mind if we selected him and he didn't step on the court at all next year. Have him work with Magic training staff to get bigger, stronger, and get his leg back to normal.Then in 2014 if we get Wiggins/Parker/Randle and a fresh Noel, we'd be looking pretty good.

exactly. if we draft him, then i'll feel confident Hennigan feels the knee isn't a concern, and i won't be as wary of it.

Well... We all trust Henny so...yeah

[Neon1]

Obviously none of us are doctors and we're doing nothing but speculating, but Hennigan will do his homework regardless. I wouldn't even mind if we selected him and he didn't step on the court at all next year. Have him work with Magic training staff to get bigger, stronger, and get his leg back to normal.Then in 2014 if we get Wiggins/Parker/Randle and a fresh Noel, we'd be looking pretty good.

exactly. if we draft him, then i'll feel confident Hennigan feels the knee isn't a concern, and i won't be as wary of it.

I have no idea why people dont look at it this way.

EVERY team is clearly going to do 200% of the homework and inspection on this knee injury. It is not like its a secret he injured it, every team is well aware going in and if you think your team is going to blindly draft him using a top 1-5 pick on him without doing the appropriate homework, then you think your management is clueless.

I am 90% sure that every person here that is saying take Noel, is NOT saying take Noel if he knee cannot get past ,Dr James Andrews, pass your own tests and through the other teams doctors. It is take him ASSUMING his knee passes your doctors.

[Bensational]

You seem to have a lot of concerns.. all of these concerns will be alleviated just because we draft him?

I'm not gonna speculate on medical issues. Until Noel is officially red-flagged by top 5 teams I will treat this injury like a normal ACL injury. I trust the Magic's brain trust.

When you say "minimize all risk", are you implying that risk = injury or injury is one of the risks you want to minimize? Because in this weak draft there are quite a few "risky" players projected to be lotto picks IMO

This is all just in the world of speculation my man. I've got a lot of trust in Hennigan and his ability to do his homework and pick talented young players.

Teams with a Top 5 pick may not want to advertise that his condition is worse than expected, if they're thinking of trading their pick. Why put your hand up and say "well, our best trade asset is major liability, what will you give us for him?". There's a reason why PJ3 and Sullinger slid so far last year after being considered a lottery pick for a long time. Those concerns were advertised, but not enough for people to expect them falling so far.

When I say minimize all risk, I mean that we need to pick a safe BPA. someone with a high ceiling, but who can compete relatively straight out of the gate. rather than taking a gamble on MCW developing a jumpshot and becoming one of those rare super tall PGs, i'd rather us take McCollum who could likely step in and have an offensive impact like Lillard, whilst also having the potential to develop as a PG.

[Bensational]

Well... We all trust Henny so...yeah

but I'm not going to be 100% sold on Noel until we reach that point.

I am 90% sure that every person here that is saying take Noel, is NOT saying take Noel if he knee cannot get past ,Dr James Andrews, pass your own tests and through the other teams doctors. It is take him ASSUMING his knee passes your doctors.

it's hard to speculate properly when it's based on the assumption that a major concern just won't be an issue. people seem much happier to chalk up the injury as "oh, well, he'll just get better and then DOMINATE". but they're not as inclined to assume that Smart will develop a killer jump shot over the summer, or that McLemore will learn to become more aggressive and attack the rim.

[KillMonger]

Noel= Hassan Whiteside
Mclemore= Jeff Taylor

[Hogified05]

Hmmm just had a thought last night. And that thought was John Wall. He has improved greatly this year, as evidence by the Wizards record with him in the lineup and that 47 point game he put up. Here is my new proposition, I've had many ideas over this year ha, we should go after him when he is a free agent in 2014.

Our whole strategy should be geared for the 2014 offseason, I have been preaching this all year. Here would be my gameplan.

1.) Draft Noel - This is 2 fold. One he is a perfect compliment to Vuc when he is healthy. Vuc only big deficiency is he can't really protect the rim. Noel can't really score or rebound yet, which Vuc can do obviously. They offset each other beautifully and would make us huge up front. Secondly, let him take his time getting healthy, hell he can miss the whole season. We have to be just as bad next year, we can take the chance and wait for Noel to get healthy. He can improve his shot and strength during next year.

2.)Get a high draft pick in 2014 - This draft has the potential to be just as good as the 03 draft. Wiggins, Randle and Parker are all potential franchise changers. Gordon, looks like a mini Black Griffin too. Fingers crossed for Wiggins or Parker thou.

3.) Sign John Wall in summer of 2014- He is starting to creep his way up the pg ranks. He is just as athletic as Rose and Westbrook and he is starting to reign it in and play to their bar.

This is what our 2014-15 roster would look like:

Pg: John Wall/Nelson
Sg: Harkless/A Shooter (need a pure 3 point shooter)
Sf: Parker or Wiggins/Harris/Harkless
Pf: Noel/Nicholson/Harris (Randle maybe)
C: Vuc/Noel/ O'Quinn

That's a pretty impressive squad if you ask me. Don't know if we can sign all this people but we should have a lot of cap room hopefully. We contend forever with this lineup. Whatcha think?

[InFlames]

Hmmm just had a thought last night. And that thought was John Wall. He has improved greatly this year, as evidence by the Wizards record with him in the lineup and that 47 point game he put up. Here is my new proposition, I've had many ideas over this year ha, we should go after him when he is a free agent in 2014.

Our whole strategy should be geared for the 2014 offseason, I have been preaching this all year. Here would be my gameplan.

1.) Draft Noel - This is 2 fold. One he is a perfect compliment to Vuc when he is healthy. Vuc only big deficiency is he can't really protect the rim. Noel can't really score or rebound yet, which Vuc can do obviously. They offset each other beautifully and would make us huge up front. Secondly, let him take his time getting healthy, hell he can miss the whole season. We have to be just as bad next year, we can take the chance and wait for Noel to get healthy. He can improve his shot and strength during next year.

2.)Get a high draft pick in 2014 - This draft has the potential to be just as good as the 03 draft. Wiggins, Randle and Parker are all potential franchise changers. Gordon, looks like a mini Black Griffin too. Fingers crossed for Wiggins or Parker thou.

3.) Sign John Wall in summer of 2014- He is starting to creep his way up the pg ranks. He is just as athletic as Rose and Westbrook and he is starting to reign it in and play to their bar.

This is what our 2014-15 roster would look like:

Pg: John Wall/Nelson
Sg: Harkless/A Shooter (need a pure 3 point shooter)
Sf: Parker or Wiggins/Harris/Harkless
Pf: Noel/Nicholson/Harris (Randle maybe)
C: Vuc/Noel/ O'Quinn

That's a pretty impressive squad if you ask me. Don't know if we can sign all this people but we should have a lot of cap room hopefully. We contend forever with this lineup. Whatcha think?

They will match anything.

[Hogified05]

Hmmm just had a thought last night. And that thought was John Wall. He has improved greatly this year, as evidence by the Wizards record with him in the lineup and that 47 point game he put up. Here is my new proposition, I've had many ideas over this year ha, we should go after him when he is a free agent in 2014.

Our whole strategy should be geared for the 2014 offseason, I have been preaching this all year. Here would be my gameplan.

1.) Draft Noel - This is 2 fold. One he is a perfect compliment to Vuc when he is healthy. Vuc only big deficiency is he can't really protect the rim. Noel can't really score or rebound yet, which Vuc can do obviously. They offset each other beautifully and would make us huge up front. Secondly, let him take his time getting healthy, hell he can miss the whole season. We have to be just as bad next year, we can take the chance and wait for Noel to get healthy. He can improve his shot and strength during next year.

2.)Get a high draft pick in 2014 - This draft has the potential to be just as good as the 03 draft. Wiggins, Randle and Parker are all potential franchise changers. Gordon, looks like a mini Black Griffin too. Fingers crossed for Wiggins or Parker thou.

3.) Sign John Wall in summer of 2014- He is starting to creep his way up the pg ranks. He is just as athletic as Rose and Westbrook and he is starting to reign it in and play to their bar.

This is what our 2014-15 roster would look like:

Pg: John Wall/Nelson
Sg: Harkless/A Shooter (need a pure 3 point shooter)
Sf: Parker or Wiggins/Harris/Harkless
Pf: Noel/Nicholson/Harris (Randle maybe)
C: Vuc/Noel/ O'Quinn

That's a pretty impressive squad if you ask me. Don't know if we can sign all this people but we should have a lot of cap room hopefully. We contend forever with this lineup. Whatcha think?

They will match anything.

Well this is true, but if Wall wants to come he will tell them he wouldn't resign with them. Force his way out like all of them do. Might be desirably to be in Orlando if we get Wiggins or Parker, otherwise probably not. Also is he a restricted free agent?

[Bensational]

They will match anything.

if Wall says he definitely wants out (for whatever reason), and he looks to be the next Rose/Westbrook, they may entertain a s&t for some of our young pieces? they'd want a PG in return, which would likely mean we have to draft one, or organise one via s&t. but we'd have Harris/Harkless/Vuc/KO/2013 1st/2013 2nd to work with.

stockpiling assets is what will help position us to chase those guys.

[Def Swami]

Obviously none of us are doctors and we're doing nothing but speculating, but Hennigan will do his homework regardless. I wouldn't even mind if we selected him and he didn't step on the court at all next year. Have him work with Magic training staff to get bigger, stronger, and get his leg back to normal.Then in 2014 if we get Wiggins/Parker/Randle and a fresh Noel, we'd be looking pretty good.

exactly. if we draft him, then i'll feel confident Hennigan feels the knee isn't a concern, and i won't be as wary of it.

Agreed. I'm not a huge fan of Noel pre-injury and now the injury history is a concern. I question the durability of his skinny legs. But, if Rob drafts him, I'm on board. I'll hope he becomes a defensive monster in the NBA. I think his ceiling in the NBA is Larry Sanders or Serge Ibaka.

[glennathan]

Obviously none of us are doctors and we're doing nothing but speculating, but Hennigan will do his homework regardless. I wouldn't even mind if we selected him and he didn't step on the court at all next year. Have him work with Magic training staff to get bigger, stronger, and get his leg back to normal.Then in 2014 if we get Wiggins/Parker/Randle and a fresh Noel, we'd be looking pretty good.

exactly. if we draft him, then i'll feel confident Hennigan feels the knee isn't a concern, and i won't be as wary of it.

Agreed. I'm not a huge fan of Noel pre-injury and now the injury history is a concern. I question the durability of his skinny legs. But, if Rob drafts him, I'm on board. I'll hope he becomes a defensive monster in the NBA. I think his ceiling in the NBA is Larry Sanders or Serge Ibaka.

I would be perfectly ok with Noel if he developed into an Ibaka type of player

[arkknight1988]

Rob will not pick Noel, and we will thank him for it.

[Orlando Prodigy]

[Furinkazan]

[KingRobb02]

Hmmm just had a thought last night. And that thought was John Wall. He has improved greatly this year, as evidence by the Wizards record with him in the lineup and that 47 point game he put up. Here is my new proposition, I've had many ideas over this year ha, we should go after him when he is a free agent in 2014.

Our whole strategy should be geared for the 2014 offseason, I have been preaching this all year. Here would be my gameplan.

1.) Draft Noel - This is 2 fold. One he is a perfect compliment to Vuc when he is healthy. Vuc only big deficiency is he can't really protect the rim. Noel can't really score or rebound yet, which Vuc can do obviously. They offset each other beautifully and would make us huge up front. Secondly, let him take his time getting healthy, hell he can miss the whole season. We have to be just as bad next year, we can take the chance and wait for Noel to get healthy. He can improve his shot and strength during next year.

2.)Get a high draft pick in 2014 - This draft has the potential to be just as good as the 03 draft. Wiggins, Randle and Parker are all potential franchise changers. Gordon, looks like a mini Black Griffin too. Fingers crossed for Wiggins or Parker thou.

3.) Sign John Wall in summer of 2014- He is starting to creep his way up the pg ranks. He is just as athletic as Rose and Westbrook and he is starting to reign it in and play to their bar.

This is what our 2014-15 roster would look like:

Pg: John Wall/Nelson
Sg: Harkless/A Shooter (need a pure 3 point shooter)
Sf: Parker or Wiggins/Harris/Harkless
Pf: Noel/Nicholson/Harris (Randle maybe)
C: Vuc/Noel/ O'Quinn

That's a pretty impressive squad if you ask me. Don't know if we can sign all this people but we should have a lot of cap room hopefully. We contend forever with this lineup. Whatcha think?

They will match anything.

Well this is true, but if Wall wants to come he will tell them he wouldn't resign with them. Force his way out like all of them do. Might be desirably to be in Orlando if we get Wiggins or Parker, otherwise probably not. Also is he a restricted free agent?

Did you not pay attention to the Eric Gordon saga? Once he signs an offer sheet, the team will just match and have him locked up long term. Gordon even sat out a couple months "rehabbing his knee" to prove a point until the exact day he became trade eligible. No way Wall goes free.

[Cigamodnalro]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhRqExIw9U[/youtube]

[mattyBoi]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhRqExIw9U[/youtube]

Jameer will be the first jersey we ever retire.