Price of pitching: Verlander gets 5yr/$180m extension

[dagger]

Could even top out at $202m

Steve Berthiaume ‏@BertDbacks 34m
#Tigers new deal can reportedly pay Justin Verlander $202 million: $180 million for 7 seasons with $22 million vesting option.

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 53s
Source: Verlander’s 2020 option vests if he finishes in the top 5 of Cy Young voting in 2019.

[YogiStewart]

to be fair, it is likely highly incentive filled.

[s e n s i]

to be fair, it is likely highly incentive filled.

it doesn't look like there are any incentives at all actually, and why would there be? players of verlander's caliber + age bracket don't get incentive-based contracts. aside from the $22m vesting option for 2020, everything else is guaranteed money regardless of how he performs.

from espn:

The right-hander was set to make $20 million over each of the next two seasons. The new deal keeps those salaries and adds $140 million in guaranteed money: $28 million each season from 2015-19. It includes a $22 million option for 2020 that would become guaranteed if he finishes among the top five in 2019 Cy Young voting.

apparently as per jp morosi, there are performance bonuses attached to mvp/cy young awards if he were to win any, but those are bonuses. $180 million is guaranteed.

[TR50]

So how well does this bode for JJ or the Jays?

I can't tell if this is positive or negative. Given JJ's history and comparing him to Verlander, it obviously puts him on a tier below, but how big a discrepancy is there?

[Eternia]

Wouldn't it be a 5 year $140M extension if it's through 2015-19? Huge deal nonetheless.

[J-Roc]

Enjoy our "high"payroll while it lasts, lol.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

[Avenger]

So how well does this bode for JJ or the Jays?

I can't tell if this is positive or negative. Given JJ's history and comparing him to Verlander, it obviously puts him on a tier below, but how big a discrepancy is there?

its pretty big imo, i know people disagree but to me JJ is more in the Annibal Sanchez tier than the Verlander tier .

More than anybody this deal affects Kershaw and Price who now have a clear precedent for their contracts. An annual salary of 28 million is just about half the Rays current payroll and Price could make 20 million before he even hits free agency.

I'm not as convinced as others seem to be that the Rays will just flip Price for a huge haul of prospects and just keep the pipeline running. Price will cost a team ~35 million over two years if the Rays try to trade him next summer. They could get a little more than what we gave up for Dickey but i don't know if its enough to make up for that huge loss. The Rays farm team isn't elite and they don't draft nearly as well as people think. They did well to hit on Longoria, Price and Moore between 2006 and 2007 but its been pretty quiet since then. Infact so far teh Rays don't have a major leaguer to show for from their drafts since 2008, it isn't that unusual but their draft record in recent years is mediocre

[Yeezus_]

Kershaw close to a new deal as well

[Relentless88]

Posey also signed to 9 years and 167 million.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/91126 ... -167m-deal

[torontoaces04]

Does a number like 6/135 million sound about right for JJ? Something like 6/135 w/ a vesting option for $25 mill (if he is top 5 in Cy Young voting, like Verlander's option), bringing the deal to 7/150 million.

That's $22.5 million per season, plus a $25 million option.

[Schad]

Posey also signed to 9 years and 167 million.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/91126 ... -167m-deal

The Posey deal is the crazier one, because he was four years from free agency, and it's not much of a sign-early discount on a deal that extends through age 34.

to be fair, it is likely highly incentive filled.

With baseball contracts, you'll very rarely hear the max possible value quoted...it's generally the guaranteed portion. Thus, Posey's deal is quoted as its value including his option year buyout, but not the option year itself.

If anything, unlike football for instance, it undersells the total value; A-Rod's demented 10 year, $275m extension is actually even more demented, because there's an additional $30m in bonuses based on career HR total on top of it.

[Santoki]

Does a number like 6/135 million sound about right for JJ? Something like 6/135 w/ a vesting option for $25 mill (if he is top 5 in Cy Young voting, like Verlander's option), bringing the deal to 7/150 million.

That's $22.5 million per season, plus a $25 million option.

No way I'd give out a contract like that to JJ right now. I think he'd have to have a Top 3 Cy Young season to even command that much in free agency, so there's no sense in outbidding yourself right now. I'm sure the Jays have been trying to extend him since the day he arrived at a number well below what he believes he'll command if he has a decent, injury-free season. I think they're prepared to let him walk either way.

[dagger]

Enjoy our "high"payroll while it lasts, lol.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

High payroll? Higher for sure, but high is relative

Here is a new table with all major league payrolls. Jays are 10th

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv? ... omany=true

[soulchild_07]

the thread title is wrong, it's 5/140 million extension. So it becomes a 7 year 180 mill guaranteed as he has 2 years still left on his deal with 20 mill per and a 1 year option for 22.5 that vests if he's top 5 in cy young voting that year.

[flatjacket1]

Does a number like 6/135 million sound about right for JJ? Something like 6/135 w/ a vesting option for $25 mill (if he is top 5 in Cy Young voting, like Verlander's option), bringing the deal to 7/150 million.

That's $22.5 million per season, plus a $25 million option.

I stand by my earlier contract I would like to get JJ for, 100M for 5 years. I was of course ridiculed by most posters for suggesting that.

I also mentioned that there is a higher cost of front of the rotation starters:

We see pitcher after pitcher sign for "record" amounts, and we continue to refuse that the price for front of the rotation starters has risen dramatically. What happens when Verlander hits FA? Is he going to sign for less? Likely not, this is the market we live in.

It's time for AA to pony up and sign Johnson before he puts up any sort of a season with a hint that he could return to form, otherwise you better enjoy the extra pick in the 1st round because he's good as gone.

I think we should try to sign him now. I know people want to wait and see how he'll do but every day you wait and he does good, the price goes up, and testing FA looks more lucrative.

[soulchild_07]

I agree signing him now to an annibal sanchez type deal is where i see it based on injury concerns but i'd rather pay higher AAV for less term based on his history and the fact we've seen that large deals on short terms can be moved.

[SharoneWright]

Dickey's deal is ridonkulous - almost 3rd-starter money these days, let alone for a guy who just won the Cy.

[flatjacket1]

Dickey's deal is ridonkulous - almost 3rd-starter money these days, let alone for a guy who just won the Cy.

I would argue its a fair deal. A lot of risk taken on.

[Wo1verine]

Dickey's deal is ridonkulous - almost 3rd-starter money these days, let alone for a guy who just won the Cy.

I would argue its a fair deal. A lot of risk taken on.

Only fair? He's been good the last 3 years. (seems like a solid deal for the Jays at this point)

With all the money that is being thrown around, i wouldn't think you would want to potentially argue such a small contract for last years cy young winner.

[flatjacket1]

I would argue its a fair deal. A lot of risk taken on.

Only fair? He's been good the last 3 years. (seems like a solid deal for the Jays at this point)

With all the money that is being thrown around, i wouldn't think you would want to potentially argue such a small contract for last years cy young winner.

Yeah that's just my opinion, but coming to a new division and age isn't exactly on his side. I didn't like the acquisition at all at the time but I've warmed up to it.

29M for a guy who could blow up in front of you is a lot. There are so many unknowns about him that it just makes it a giant risk. Traditional knuckleballers can't be used for comparison because his is a lot more violent and he throws it MUCH harder. Another thing about Dickey's knuckleball is that when their pitch doesn't break (Which does happen time to time), it gets ROPED, and I'm not talking just doubles. If you've noticed any trends with Dickey is that when it rains it pours, hits come in bunches and he has to make corrections mid-start at times. I've watched a lot of tape of his good and bad starts (MLB.TV ftw) and when he is truly an artist, but as I said before when it doesn't break, it's trouble.

I wouldn't of gone any higher to sign him, unless the contract contained a lot of protective language and was incentive laden.

I like Dickey but he is getting paid fairly. Nobody looks at a contract badly at the time it is signed unless its astronomical. Look at Romero. 20+ starts of 3.5 ERA ball at 25 and we locked him up for what looked like a steal of a contract. He woke up one morning and couldn't find the zone. The risk in that contract was lesser.

I wouldn't be surprised if Dickey regressed a lot in the AL, or if I woke up to the headline "Dickey has career ending surgery" or whatever. The prospects we gave up for him, combined with the cash on the line makes it REALLY suck for us if he doesn't pan out.