Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Rafael122]

Apparently Goodwin of KY is going to go in the 2013 draft - to my surprise. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1242380 He could conceivably go before the Wiz pick - though I wouldn't pick him. He reminds me of Wall with no point guard skills. Great athlete and penetrator but then what.

I'm not surprised that Goodwin is going pro. He's facing reduced minutes next season with the Harrison twins coming to Kentucky. Goodwin is not ready to play at the next level and is an example of a player basically being pushed out of college.

He could always transfer and sit out a year. Being pushed out and is about to make millions, what a hard life.

[WallTown02]

I'm trying to figure out is he a potential star or the next Rodney Rogers.

Olynyk is a safer bet to me right now because he's a legit 7-0 footer with a high skill level, but again the measurements may change my opinion.

Ranking the bigs at the moment:

1. Noel
2. Olynyk
3. Bennett
4. Zeller
5. Len
6. Withey
7. Goubert

Thanks for the response. But what about my first question about Olynyk's age and early production? You seem to be very bullish on him, but he fits in to your red flag of "22 year old star that didn't produce at 18/19".

[Dat2U]

With bigs, I think one should get caught up in the athleticism too much. As long as he's a respectable athlete for the position. I remember the case was made against Greg Monroe b/c he wasn't a run & jump athlete.

Skill & IQ are the two most important aspects it appears when it comes to big men. Occasionally you get the McGee or DeAndre Jordan that find ways to impact the game with their athleticism but I think it's no coincidence that two of the most productive big men in the NBA this season are Tim Duncan & Brook Lopez.

Olynyk looks to be a sure bet to be a productive offensive player at the next level. The skill level is really high. Skill plus 7-feet-tall is an automatic winner. He's probably become the guy I'd be looking at considering where were likely to finish.

But doesn't Olynyk fit into your category above of seniors that weren't good their first few years and are now beating up on kids 2-3 years younger?

Not really. Olynyk is a jr, not a sr. He's 21. Plus he's using skill not brawn to put up ridiculous production numbers on high efficiency. Much different than a guy like Mason Plumlee who sucked major ballz for 3 years before he could start to out muscle the 18 & 19 yr olds and other marginal college players as a 22 yr old with a grown man body.

[WallTown02]

With bigs, I think one should get caught up in the athleticism too much. As long as he's a respectable athlete for the position. I remember the case was made against Greg Monroe b/c he wasn't a run & jump athlete.

Skill & IQ are the two most important aspects it appears when it comes to big men. Occasionally you get the McGee or DeAndre Jordan that find ways to impact the game with their athleticism but I think it's no coincidence that two of the most productive big men in the NBA this season are Tim Duncan & Brook Lopez.

Olynyk looks to be a sure bet to be a productive offensive player at the next level. The skill level is really high. Skill plus 7-feet-tall is an automatic winner. He's probably become the guy I'd be looking at considering where were likely to finish.

But doesn't Olynyk fit into your category above of seniors that weren't good their first few years and are now beating up on kids 2-3 years younger?

Not really. Olynyk is a jr, not a sr. He's 21. Plus he's using skill not brawn to put up ridiculous production numbers on high efficiency. Much different than a guy like Mason Plumlee who sucked major ballz for 3 years before he could start to out muscle the 18 & 19 yr olds and other marginal college players as a 22 yr old with a grown man body.

Well he's about to be 22 and did have 4 years in college, but I see what you mean....skill vs brawn.

It looks like we might not have a choice anyways. We'll just need to draft the best available. Noel and Porter are long shots, but I'd be OK with any of Bennett, Len, Zeller and Olynyk.

[bjack18]

I'd be ok with Len as well. Bigs like to be fed and he simply was malnourished at UM...hooking up with Wall and Beal, being around the professionalism of Nene and Webster will do wonders for his game and he'll be fed plenty. Olynyck is the other big I'd draft and if we draft BPA and those 2 are off the board McCollum and Franklin would be nice additions... Please Ernie, steer clear of Zeller,Muhammad,Plumlee

[nate33]

If Porter and Bennett are gone, I'd try and get Burke if he was still available. If not, I'd call up Milwaukee and try and trade for Ilyasova. If that doesn't work, I'd explore a trade-down scenario with Utah or Atlanta and then try to grab a combo guard (McCollum, Goodwin, Harris) and a big (Withey, Dieng, Adams).

In the 2nd round, I'd try and package our 2nd rounders together to move up high enough to nab McDermott (assuming we don't get Ilyasova). I also like Seth Curry out of Duke with our late 2nd rounder.

[stevemcqueen1]

Apparently Goodwin of KY is going to go in the 2013 draft - to my surprise. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1242380 He could conceivably go before the Wiz pick - though I wouldn't pick him. He reminds me of Wall with no point guard skills. Great athlete and penetrator but then what.

Ryan Harrow is transferring too. He claims it's for his father's health, but I think the fact he and Goodwin were both going to lose their starting jobs and most of their minutes next year was the biggest factor in their decisions. The Harrison twins are going to Kentucky. Marcus Lee and James Young have signed too, and Julius Randle and Dakari Johnson have committed too.

If Randle signs, it'll be the greatest recruiting class Calipari has reeled in, even better than the Wall/Cousins/Bledsoe class. Maybe five top 11 recruits in one of the strongest HS classes in recent memory. Nerlens is probably the only one who would keep his starting job but there is no chance he'll stay. Poythress is probably another lock to leave early considering how loaded Kentucky will be at the wings. And Cauley-Stein could have trouble getting minutes if Dakari Johnson signs.

Aaron Gordon is supposedly still considering Kentucky too and is set to make his decision tomorrow. It would be absurd if he picked Kentucky.

In related recruiting news, supposedly Andrew Wiggins is considering FSU, Kansas, Kentucky, and UNC. I don't see him going to Kentucky where he'll have to fight with the Harrison twins and Randle for the ball. FSU would be interesting, but the basketball fan in me wants to see him go to UNC. I want him to go there and for James McAdoo to go back to school. I want to see them match up with Jabari Parker and company at Duke. Those two and Kentucky would probably be three of your final four teams right there.

[stevemcqueen1]

Or imagine if Wiggins went to Kansas and McLemore stayed in school.

Most athletic tandem of wings in decades, at least.

[Ruzious]

If Porter and Bennett are gone, I'd try and get Burke if he was still available. If not, I'd call up Milwaukee and try and trade for Ilyasova. If that doesn't work, I'd explore a trade-down scenario with Utah or Atlanta and then try to grab a combo guard (McCollum, Goodwin, Harris) and a big (Withey, Dieng, Adams).

In the 2nd round, I'd try and package our 2nd rounders together to move up high enough to nab McDermott (assuming we don't get Ilyasova). I also like Seth Curry out of Duke with our late 2nd rounder.

It is looking like Milwaukee skewed themselves badly with the Redick/Harris trade. The only way they get out of looking terrible is if Redick re-signs for a LOT less than he expected. And the way he's playing, he might not get any good offers. I still don't see them trading Ilyasova - as he's their stretch 4 - which they need. Their other forwards - other than Dunleavy - who I don't think will re-sign - are not outside shooters. Bottom line - I don't think they spend 30 mil a year to keep that backcourt of theirs. They need to keep Ilyasova or get someone like him.

Burke has become a draft wildcard. Because of the perceived lack of talent in this draft - and if he goes on to be Tournament MVP, he could go as high as 2nd in this draft - or he could slide to the end of the lotto. I have him as the 2nd best player in the draft - and have from day 1 - so obviously I pick him if he's there.

[fishercob]

If Porter and Bennett are gone, I'd try and get Burke if he was still available. If not, I'd call up Milwaukee and try and trade for Ilyasova. If that doesn't work, I'd explore a trade-down scenario with Utah or Atlanta and then try to grab a combo guard (McCollum, Goodwin, Harris) and a big (Withey, Dieng, Adams).

In the 2nd round, I'd try and package our 2nd rounders together to move up high enough to nab McDermott (assuming we don't get Ilyasova). I also like Seth Curry out of Duke with our late 2nd rounder.

It is looking like Milwaukee skewed themselves badly with the Redick/Harris trade. The only way they get out of looking terrible is if Redick re-signs for a LOT less than he expected. And the way he's playing, he might not get any good offers. I still don't see them trading Ilyasova - as he's their stretch 4 - which they need. Their other forwards - other than Dunleavy - who I don't think will re-sign - are not outside shooters. Bottom line - I don't think they spend 30 mil a year to keep that backcourt of theirs. They need to keep Ilyasova or get someone like him.

Burke has become a draft wildcard. Because of the perceived lack of talent in this draft - and if he goes on to be Tournament MVP, he could go as high as 2nd in this draft - or he could slide to the end of the lotto. I have him as the 2nd best player in the draft - and have from day 1 - so obviously I pick him if he's there.

Ruz, Ilyasova strikes me as a luxury the Bucks can't afford. He's a good player, but they are starless. They need to strip it down the the studs and rebuild. Tank hard next year for what may be the best draft in a decade.

If I'm them I let Ellis walk, S&t Jennings for the best package of draft picks/young players I can, trade Ersan for picks/prospects. Keep Sanders and Henson. Keep Gooden and amnesty him next summer. That roster has a very low ceiling, especially b/c free agents aren't going to Milwaukee.

If their plan goes right they should be drafting in the high lottery next year, mid-high the year after, and late lotto after that. They need to blow. it. up.

Edit: I appreciate John Wall!

[Kanyewest]

While it may make sense for the Bucks to tank, it seems like it is a strategy that they are opposed against doing given all the moves that they have made in the past whether it be trading for JJ Reddick or signing Drew Gooden to that contract when he was a free agent. They seem like a franchise perfectly content on competing for the time being for a 6-8 playoff seed.

[Ruzious]

Ruz, Ilyasova strikes me as a luxury the Bucks can't afford. He's a good player, but they are starless. They need to strip it down the the studs and rebuild. Tank hard next year for what may be the best draft in a decade.

If I'm them I let Ellis walk, S&t Jennings for the best package of draft picks/young players I can, trade Ersan for picks/prospects. Keep Sanders and Henson. Keep Gooden and amnesty him next summer. That roster has a very low ceiling, especially b/c free agents aren't going to Milwaukee.

If their plan goes right they should be drafting in the high lottery next year, mid-high the year after, and late lotto after that. They need to blow. it. up.

Edit: I appreciate John Wall!

I don't disagree with you, but the mentality there is to make it to the playoffs - and you've had a nice season. I don't see them being willing to blow it up.

Edit - what Kanye said. Sorry, I missed your post.

[hands11]

Dr. Positivity, you really think Olynyk is a better athlete than Zeller?

Olynyk runs fairly well and has good agility, but the thing that jumps out at me about him is how slow he is. He has no explosion to his game. He's very skilled but he executes his post moves at an extremely slow and deliberate pace. He's very fluid but he's got no quickness. To my eye, Zeller is a noticeably better athlete and has a much better first step than Olynyk.

The differences in their caliber of production are negligible IMO since both produced at an elite level. But it should definitely factor that Olynyk did nothing his first two seasons and put up his numbers as a junior in a mid major conference. Zeller did his thing immediately as a freshman and sophomore in the best conference in the country this past year.

The better question is how many don't think he is better then Zeller ?

But they are very different kinds of players. Olynyk will probably start off as a stretch player. Zeller will start off trying to do what he did in college.... slam into people... where he will get called for fouls, fall down and get his shot rejected.

[truwizfan4evr]

Assuming wizards get to pick from 10 -12 range what players do you, guys think we should consider drafting.

[gambitx777]

the big difference is that Zeller is not going to translate well in to the NBA, Olynyk is.
I would not give up a first for to the bucks for him. olynyk, Bennett burke, one of them should be there. 8-12 and i would love to draft one of them.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My preference would be to use the first round pick on a young big like Bennett or Len...and then pick up Erick Green from Va Tech in the second round who has the size and skills to back up both the PG and SG positions.

I agree that it is probably best to pick up a big with the first pick. I consider McDermott, Porter, Olynyk, Len, and Zeller worthy of a first round pick.

If the Wizards select one of those players first, along with Erick Green I like a host of PG/SGs to choose from in round two. I think Nate Wolters is a great pick. I also like scoring guards Isaiah Canaan, Pierre Jackson, and of course, Russ Smith.

If the Wizards decide to go G first, CJ McCollum is one of my three favorite players in this draft. (The other two are Nate Wolters and Doug McDermott). If they draft him first, there is a very good chance that Washington can get a good big in round two. Mike Muscala might drop but if he doesn't, I'm fairly certain Zeke Marshall of Akron will go round two. Gorgui Dieng and Zeke Marshall are my favorite bigs in this draft. They can each play. Dieng is a known commodity but I think Marshall is tremendously underrated.

There are a lot of ways the Wizards can go this draft. Trading down might not be a bad way to go, either. I'm CONVINCED that McDermott is being severely underrated by DX. I also think that Jamaal Franklin, Andre Roberson, and D.J. Stephens are very underrated. Stephens is a freak athlete who if he has sufficient stamina can help an NBA team defend on the wings. Roberson is an anti-Doug McDermott. He's got physical skills and athleticism but is very limited in what he can do on the court. He rebounds and he defends but he can't shoot a lick. McDermott is a shooter's shooter. He moves off the ball.

I would love to see the Wizards somehow add Olynyk, McDermott, and Wolters. I hated the Celtics back in the day when they had Bird, McHale, Ainge, Sichting, Roberts, Walton, etc. Funny thing, but they figured out a way one year to be 41-1 at home in the regular season. How? Parish and DJ! Just kidding. No, they utilized economy of motion. They swung the ball, ran certain angles, knew how to hold and get away with it, passed precisely, and most of all they did not miss open shots very often. It's stereotypically cliche to say they played smart. I will say they compensated for lacking athleticism with precision and gamesmanship. They moved off the ball. They did the little things.

When I watch not just the (white) players I named, but also others like Trey Burke, Allen Crabbe, Khalid Wyatt, Sherwood Brown, Peyton Siva, Russ Smith, etc. in the NCAAs. I see certain players stand out. They possess court awareness and they play the right way. Bullock and Hairston of UNC really shoot the ball well. Dieng is a dynamic defender.

Sorry for the rant, but I see a lot of players who I wouldn't mind see wearing a Wizards uniform down the line. One or two do a few things I don't like. Shabazz Muhammed can score but I don't like his flat line production on everything but scoring. Anthony Bennett is a beast of an athlete and he has a nice outside shot but he is a complete dog on defense. Franklin is one of my favorite talents, but he's been disciplined by his team on three of four occasions. Tony Mitchell might be one of the top 4 or 5 athletes in this draft but he either lacks a great deal of maturity or he just might be a head case. He didn't excel. He regressed at N. Texas State. Alex Len is like the Tin Man. Does Len have a heart? He sure disappears some games. Mason Plumlee is 23 and also can disappear in some games and he's robotic in others. Cody Zeller seems fluid on offense until he's defended. He's also overmatched on defense at times. At other times he looks spectacular on offense. Oladipo is a great defender but he disappeared in the NCAAs. Marcus Smart seems like a stud and potential star, but like Michael Carter Williams, he can't shoot a lick.

[AFM]

I love Russ Smith. 8.7 FTA per 40! Do we know if he will declare?
CJ Leslie declared today, if anyone cares.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Assuming wizards get to pick from 10 -12 range what players do you, guys think we should consider drafting.

I would draft Doug McDermott even with a 10-12 pick, but the best bet would be to trade down to select McDermott with a later pick. I also believe CJ McDermott is worthy of a pick in the 10-12 range. However, those two are my own unconventional picks.

I think Shabazz Muhammed, Trey Burke, Kelly Olynyk, Alex Len, Isaiah Austin, Rudy Gobert, Mason Plumlee, and Dario Saric are all possibilities.

I won't be surprised if Shabazz Muhammed drops on draft night due to revelations about his age.

Ernie loves to draft Euros and project bigs with potential. Alex Len is THE logical pick, but there are others who would not surprise me if announced on draft night. I think he'd pass up Len for Muhammed's scoring. That the Wizards thought about trading Ariza for Caron tipped their hand a bit. They're looking for scoring. Burke would be a logical pick. (I think McCollum makes a ton of sense for Washington but I don't expect him because he's the opposite of a project/potential player.) I won't be a bit surprised if Len is off the board that the Wizards draft Plumlee.

[Dr Positivity]

Dr. Positivity, you really think Olynyk is a better athlete than Zeller?

Olynyk runs fairly well and has good agility, but the thing that jumps out at me about him is how slow he is. He has no explosion to his game. He's very skilled but he executes his post moves at an extremely slow and deliberate pace. He's very fluid but he's got no quickness. To my eye, Zeller is a noticeably better athlete and has a much better first step than Olynyk.

The differences in their caliber of production are negligible IMO since both produced at an elite level. But it should definitely factor that Olynyk did nothing his first two seasons and put up his numbers as a junior in a mid major conference. Zeller did his thing immediately as a freshman and sophomore in the best conference in the country this past year.

Here is a few athletic plays by Olynyk. The first dunk in a short capsule shows an array of athleticism, both having the footspeed to run from the backcourt to in front of the defense, then the vertical explosiveness to have a poster dunk. If you look at it closely you'll see Olynyk who was already moving at a fast pace, actually accelerates beginning at halfcourt to gain even more speed and explosiveness. I haven't seen Zeller make a play like that athletically. The second video shows pretty impressive vertical leap and explosiveness blocking a shot.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfJg-uBWCAA[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6VhCRMPw1s[/youtube]

He has another huge dunk in the below video at 3:13ish. The segment "Off the dribble" starting at 1:25 though is probably my biggest reason for liking his athleticism. He's making plays by facing up defenders in the halfcourt, then flat out blowing by them off the dribble with his first step, long strides and ballhandling, either scoring at the rim from that or getting fouled. Very similar to what Bosh's signature move in Toronto was IMO, when he used to have isos run for him all the time nobody was better at facing up a defender and just blowing by them to the rim. Olynyk isn't Bosh athletically but what he's doing to defenders in the first few minutes of this clip is very similar. Not sure there's a more pure sign of a player's athleticism than when he can blow by defenders without a screen and when he's not catching them off guard. Olynyk isn't doing it against NBA athletes in the below clip, but it's very impressive.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoIJ8h-WnL8[/youtube]

I think both Olynyk and Zeller are impressive athletically and have the footspeed to get by defenders in the halfcourt. I think people are putting too much stock into their lack of strength or hulking bodies by calling them non great physical talents, when in the modern NBA speed and blow by ability is largely more important at the PF position offensively. To me there is a world of difference between them and a McDermott or Kelly, who I am fans of but are going to get 0 help from their physical tools in the NBA. I think Zeller and Olynyk will be able to make many plays on the back of their athleticism by attacking the rim, even if their games are skill and instinctual orientated. When it comes to athleticism, at least at PG/SG/SF/PF, I tend to think first step/being able to burst forward towards the rim is more important than everything else combined and both these guys IMO are above average in that department for a PF

[Ruzious]

Sorry Dr Pos, but the dunk and the block didn't impress me even a little bit. Every player in the NBA can and has made a running dunk like that. And on the block, the shooter was basically giving him a gift. He barely got off the ground.