Making the Case for Tyreke Evans

[Sun Scorched]

This will be a decently lengthy, though (I hope) an informed opinion of a potential direction I think our organization should take. I will say upfront, I don't think signing Tyreke Evans would be anywhere near the parallel most may attempt to draw in the signing of Michael Beasley. Either way, here it is.

Tyreke Evans is being underutilized. He's playing out of position and few (if any) plays are run that maximize his skillset. Tyreke is 6'6" and 220lbs. Big guy to have at the 2. Dwyane Wade is 6'4" and 212lbs, by way of example. (Get used to the Wade comparisons). Additionally, he has the ability to distribute and slash at a high rate.

So: Size. Passing. Slashing.

Okay, stay with me. Michael Beasley currently scores 17.4 per36 while shooting 17.5 shots per36 - that's roughly a point per shot - not good. Evans scores 1.3 points per shot. If he received the amount of shots Beasley does, he would be scoring 22.7 per36, easily our leading scorer.

So: Scoring.

Finally, Evans is a RFA this offseason with teams that will be hesitant to match because of his status. Sacramento won't want him to walk for free and would likely match anything in the $8-$11 million range... unless there is incentive for them via S&T. With this knowledge in hand, I'll make a bold suggestion: Jared Dudley for Tyreke Evans (S&T).

So: Undervalued.

I know Dudley is a great guy and I love what he was able to bring for us off the bench in years past, but the Suns are in a different stage now and his tools are less useful than they once had been. You roll into next season with this rotation:

PG - Dragic / Marshall
SG - Evans
SF - Tucker / Morris
PF - Scola / Morris
C - Gortat / Frye

Plus your rookies. Gotta tell you, I think that team is much better than most would assume.

Advanced stats back up Evans' maturation as a player, and I'll be referencing those throughout this discussion, but suffice it to say that Tyrke would add size, scoring, rebounding, passing, playmaking and energy to our team for (potentially) less than $10m per year. It would give Dragic a running buddy for years to come, and it would give the Suns a chance to cash in on low value, for a potentially underutilized player.

[Sun Scorched]

I would point out that this would allow us to draft Noel without concern over needing to draft a wing just to fill the void. Noel, though he won't play for a year, is clearly BPA.

[Saberestar]

Tyreke is 6'6" and 220lbs. Big guy to have at the 2. Dwyane Wade is 6'4" and 212lbs, by way of example. (Get used to the Wade comparisons).

Tyreke is 6'4" w/o shoes and 6'11.25" wingspan.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tyreke-Evans-1110/
Wade is 6'3.75" w/o shoes and 6'10.75" wingspan.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/dwyane-wade-4726/

Evans is not a big guard. He has decent size and great wingspan (like Wade) but he has not good leaping ability and he is not explosive, he is not playing above the rim like Flash.

[Sun Scorched]

I use Basketball Reference for almost everything, that's where I got the info from.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/evansty01.html

And not many people do play above the rim like Flash, I get that. But in terms of slashing and fluidity, Evans draws some strong parallels. Wade is freakishly efficient at +.500. Evans is sitting at .480 for the season.

[RunDogGun]

I would point out that this would allow us to draft Noel without concern over needing to draft a wing just to fill the void. Noel, though he won't play for a year, is clearly BPA.

Unfortunately, we would be drafting before we could secure Evans. I don't know if the FO wants to fight for another RFA, but maybe a S&T could work.

[thamadkant]

I've always been interested in Tyreke Evans.

With the current Suns (no identity)
I would try to secure him to place next to Dragic.

Why?
Dragic can play off the ball and be a scoring guard. Evans and Dragic can take turns facilitating and taking scoring responsibilities.


As mentioned, unfortunately the draft schedule and free agency transactions are not aligned specifically that help Suns secure a clear direction.

I would ring Kings and make a really attractive offer that somehow overpays for Tyreke, assuming he is critical to the new core.

Gortat + Dudley + Scola

For

Tyreke Evans + filler


Draft Noel (assuming He falls to suns)

And run the next season with.

C: Haddadi / O'Neal
PF: Beasley / Kieff Morris
SF: W.Johnson / Marcus Morris
SG: Evans / Tucker
PG: Dragic / Marshall

Somehow that team is still a bottom 10 team.

Draft PF/C: Hopefully Randle or Steven Adams fall to Suns in 2014 draft.

You then have Noel and one of the above enter the team in 2014-2015 season.
And a max contract available... Which I would try to offer to Lebron James or another SF/Wing.

Suns should be a very attractive team come 2014 Free Agency period.

[Sun Scorched]

I think Dudley should be enough to get Tyreke in a S&T. Gortat + Scola can get the team other assets where needed.

PG - Goran Dragic (17/9/3)
SG - Tyreke Evans (22/6/5)
SF - PJ Tucker (9/6/2)
PF - Nerlens Noel (12/12/3)
C - Steven Adams (14/10/2)

[RunDogGun]

I think Dudley should be enough to get Tyreke in a S&T. Gortat + Scola can get the team other assets where needed.

PG - Goran Dragic (17/9/3)
SG - Tyreke Evans (22/6/5)
SF - PJ Tucker (9/6/2)
PF - Nerlens Noel (12/12/3)
C - Steven Adams (14/10/2)

If we draft Noel, it might not be a bad move to get Evans. However, I do think if it came down to a S&T deal, we would have to add more than just Dudley. For a team looking to be on the move, or in a city desperate to keep the team, draft picks will most likely be attached from our end.

But I don't think they would want either Gortat or Scola.

[Sunsfan03]

Yeah, I would like to have him too, but I don't think we can attain him. Dragic,Oladipo, Evans, Draft pick, Gortat. So sick!!

[phrazbit]

You get a ball dominating SG, who prefers isolation and does not do much off the ball, and I think it really diminishes Dragic's value. Look at how much Dragic's play has improved since Wes Johnson (who can spot up shoot) replaced Brown in the rotation. He is a really bad defensive player too.

Also, its going to take more than 9 mil to sign him away, Sacramento would likely match a 9 mil offer, to sign an RFA you typically have to overpay pretty dramatically.

Personally, I'd generally avoid getting committed to non-elite players who need to dominate the ball in order to contribute.

[Sun Scorched]

You get a ball dominating SG, who prefers isolation and does not do much off the ball, and I think it really diminishes Dragic's value. Look at how much Dragic's play has improved since Wes Johnson (who can spot up shoot) replaced Brown in the rotation. He is a really bad defensive player too.

Also, its going to take more than 9 mil to sign him away, Sacramento would likely match a 9 mil offer, to sign an RFA you typically have to overpay pretty dramatically.

Personally, I'd generally avoid getting committed to non-elite players who need to dominate the ball in order to contribute.

And I would whole-heartedly agree with you in most scenarios, but here we're only talking about plugging Evans into the usage and shot volume that Beasley currently occupies - and he's better than Beasley.

I agree Sacto would match a $9m restricted offer, the idea was to compensate them via S&T so that the overpay happened via assets outgoing and not in terms of contract salary.

[MathiasPW]

There is more risk to Evans than the numbers show. The numbers have been quite volatile throughout his short-lived career (and mostly on a negative trend). Quite a chance we pay him for what he produces now, to get him to produce less once he is here.

[WallabyPie]

Evans would an awful fit with Dragic, since neither of them can shoot a jump shot. We need a shooting guard that can actually shoot!

[Sun Scorched]

Here is a cross-section of Evans' points per possession over his career:

Rookie Year - 1.24 ppp
Sophomore Year - 1.09 ppp
3rd Year - 1.15 ppp
4th Year - 1.30 ppp

Year 1 and 4 are elite level in terms of efficiency. I get that he doesn't have a jumper, but I don't care. He generates points when he attempts to score. That's more important to me.

[MathiasPW]

picking his hi and low points per possession stats, @ 17.5 shots per game (stat used to project his scoring) that would be the difference between 19 ppg and 22 ppg, so not really a heaven and hell scenario, both are pretty decent.

[Kyler Murray]

Always liked him. You just can't average 20, 5 & 5 on your rookie year if you're not extremely talented.
I think the reasons for his struggles are mainly the Kings' mysterious way to make everyone a headcase and his misuse.

[Sun Scorched]

Well, his upper end is more like 23ppg which is 4 points higher with the same amount of looks. I think the Suns average +/- is 6.5 ppg, so that increase in efficiency gets you much closer to a higher win column count. And, for the sake of contrast, Steve Nash historically hovered around 1.30 ppp - a highly efficient number.

Tyreke has improved his trey dramatically and gets to the rim at a good clip. Which have helped his efficiency tremendously.

[phrazbit]

You get a ball dominating SG, who prefers isolation and does not do much off the ball, and I think it really diminishes Dragic's value. Look at how much Dragic's play has improved since Wes Johnson (who can spot up shoot) replaced Brown in the rotation. He is a really bad defensive player too.

Also, its going to take more than 9 mil to sign him away, Sacramento would likely match a 9 mil offer, to sign an RFA you typically have to overpay pretty dramatically.

Personally, I'd generally avoid getting committed to non-elite players who need to dominate the ball in order to contribute.

And I would whole-heartedly agree with you in most scenarios, but here we're only talking about plugging Evans into the usage and shot volume that Beasley currently occupies - and he's better than Beasley.

I agree Sacto would match a $9m restricted offer, the idea was to compensate them via S&T so that the overpay happened via assets outgoing and not in terms of contract salary.

Being "better than Beasley" is not a sell. Beasley is a god awful player, there are a ton of options that are better than Beasley and would not require giving up a big contract and trade assets to acquire.

Evans is a poor defender and prefers to score in isolation. Unless you have a superstar (and Evans is absolutely not a star) you need to have some versatile players who can play off the ball. Evans contributes very little without the ball in his hands (which would negate Dragic's worth) but he is not good enough of a one on one player to actually lean on.

Giving up assets and a +10 mil 4 year contract to Evans is IMO one of the worst case scenarios for the Suns. Thats how to build a long term crappy team.

[RunSunRun]

Giving up assets and a +10 mil 4 year contract to Evans is IMO one of the worst case scenarios for the Suns. Thats how to build a long term crappy team.

Agreed. I don't dislike Evans or anything, but as a RFA, we'd have to overpay with a larger contract offer and/or assets that need to be moved for other rebuilding pieces (Gortat, Scola).

If there was a way to get him on the Suns for say 7-8 million a year without giving up assets, it would be a good move, but unfortunately that looks near impossible.

[DRK]

I'ld do it. Most i'll give is about 9-10 mill a year over 4 years though. No way he'll get max.