Price of pitching: Verlander gets 5yr/$180m extension

[satyr9]

He's getting paid to be a 1WAR, 2WAR, 2WAR starter with an option for another 2WAR season if we so choose (probably overstating WAR inflation in years 2 and three, but more than 2, less than 2.5), I understand why the market is afraid of big payouts over term for knucklers, but his contract is about as unrisky as you'll see.

The price is the prospects here and that price was largely due to the low deal Dickey was willing to accept to lock up security. Of course less risk does not mean no risk, there'll always be risk for guaranteed money 'cause injury/regression is always there, but if you get 1 year like last year out of Dickey he'll have made his whole non-option contract. If you took his last 3 years (12.9 rWAR) and gave the average over 3 a slightly escalating 5.25/5.5/5.75 m/WAR for the next three seasons it'd be worth a touch over 70m. That's a gigantically unrealistic projection, but it's the kind of crazy math GMs use all the time to justify paying Greinke 150m, Pujols 250m, Fielder 220m, or Ejax or whoever in UFA. If we'd paid him 70 or 60 or 50 it'd be worth discussing the risk of the contract, but 3/29 is pretty amazing and a big part of why there's like an extra 10-20m of prospect value to get him.

[flatjacket1]

He's getting paid to be a 1WAR, 2WAR, 2WAR starter with an option for another 2WAR season if we so choose (probably overstating WAR inflation in years 2 and three, but more than 2, less than 2.5), I understand why the market is afraid of big payouts over term for knucklers, but his contract is about as unrisky as you'll see.

The price is the prospects here and that price was largely due to the low deal Dickey was willing to accept to lock up security. Of course less risk does not mean no risk, there'll always be risk for guaranteed money 'cause injury/regression is always there, but if you get 1 year like last year out of Dickey he'll have made his whole non-option contract. If you took his last 3 years (12.9 rWAR) and gave the average over 3 a slightly escalating 5.25/5.5/5.75 m/WAR for the next three seasons it'd be worth a touch over 70m. That's a gigantically unrealistic projection, but it's the kind of crazy math GMs use all the time to justify paying Greinke 150m, Pujols 250m, Fielder 220m, or Ejax or whoever in UFA. If we'd paid him 70 or 60 or 50 it'd be worth discussing the risk of the contract, but 3/29 is pretty amazing and a big part of why there's like an extra 10-20m of prospect value to get him.

To call the contract low risk is absurd IMO. The Ricky Romero contract was low risk, this is about as high risk as you can get. That's all it comes down to. If d'Arnaud makes a single All-Star team that is 20M in surplus value that year alone, not counting the other 5 cost controlled years. You are looking at around 60M in surplus value if he pans out, and another 25-40M from Syndergaard if he pans out. We gave up a lot of Dickey.

[satyr9]

He's getting paid to be a 1WAR, 2WAR, 2WAR starter with an option for another 2WAR season if we so choose (probably overstating WAR inflation in years 2 and three, but more than 2, less than 2.5), I understand why the market is afraid of big payouts over term for knucklers, but his contract is about as unrisky as you'll see.

The price is the prospects here and that price was largely due to the low deal Dickey was willing to accept to lock up security. Of course less risk does not mean no risk, there'll always be risk for guaranteed money 'cause injury/regression is always there, but if you get 1 year like last year out of Dickey he'll have made his whole non-option contract. If you took his last 3 years (12.9 rWAR) and gave the average over 3 a slightly escalating 5.25/5.5/5.75 m/WAR for the next three seasons it'd be worth a touch over 70m. That's a gigantically unrealistic projection, but it's the kind of crazy math GMs use all the time to justify paying Greinke 150m, Pujols 250m, Fielder 220m, or Ejax or whoever in UFA. If we'd paid him 70 or 60 or 50 it'd be worth discussing the risk of the contract, but 3/29 is pretty amazing and a big part of why there's like an extra 10-20m of prospect value to get him.

To call the contract low risk is absurd IMO. The Ricky Romero contract was low risk, this is about as high risk as you can get. That's all it comes down to. If d'Arnaud makes a single All-Star team that is 20M in surplus value that year alone, not counting the other 5 cost controlled years. You are looking at around 60M in surplus value if he pans out, and another 25-40M from Syndergaard if he pans out. We gave up a lot of Dickey.

Wow, one might think you were talking about the cost in prospects instead of the cost in salary. And before my post I was responding to your contention is was the 29m he was owed.

[Lateral Quicks]

Yeah, I was against the Dickey deal as soon as I learned d'Arnaud was involved. To add Syndergaard was just stupid.

That said, I hope Dickey and the other additions can lead us to the promised land. It will still be painful though if d'Arnaud ends up being a perennial all-star or Syndergaard develops into a front-line starter.

[zilby]

5/180 averages to $36m per year. That's crazy money.

[Santoki]

5/180 averages to $36m per year. That's crazy money.

It's not 5/180 though - title is incorrect. It's a 5-year, $140 million extension.