Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[pancakes3]

If you look only at the Kentucky highlights, you'd be absolutely blown away and compound that with what I'm sure will be phenomenal workouts, I can see Len shoot right on up the draft boards come the big night. The only red flag is that even though on paper he's 7'1 255, he doesn't look or play like it. He can rise up OK enough and he can finish with contact decently but he doesn't bulldoze space like someone with similar measurements (Marc Gasol) does.

[sfam]

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He is way more mobile, coordinated and faster then Hibbert. Hibbert is more like a Y Ming type.

I didn't see lots of speed in Len's game. I would describe him as skilled and deliberative. Given his jump in weight this past year (like 30lbs or so), I doubt he'll have any problem going from 250 to 270 in the next year or two.

[Dark Faze]

Ballhogs rarely kill TS% and post scoring efficiency though, which is kind of an issue for Len.

Lacedarius Dunn was used as a reason for Perry Jones III's lack of production, but truth was he just wasn't that great. So I'd just be careful in using bad guard play as a reason for picking Len.

I think Len is a nice pick, but I'm not going to go with athleticism over skill. Olynyk has to be the pick over him.

[jivelikenice]

I can see Len shoot up the boards but I just can't see this organization at this stage in its development take a chance on a raw prospect like him, or any raw prospect in that regard. That is unless they make a move for a third piece via a trade of Okafor or Ariza w/ pieces and feel like a rookie can play a few minutes off the bench and develop. I know Fab Melo isn't as highly reagrded a prospect, but they didn't even want him for free!! I'm guessing one of two things happen:

1. They take a player who can offer a tangible skill and be projected as a rotational player Yr 1. Oladipo can play D; Otto is versatile and brings a lot to the table; Zeller has experience, has decent shooting touch, and can give you 20 minutes behind Okafor/ Nene; and Shabazz can give you instant offense. One of these 4 should be there...

2. Trade the pick with an expiring for that third building block. They were likely hesitant to include the pick when negotiating for Rudy Gay or Smith based on their respective contract situations and how high our pick was at that point, but it may no longer be the case. The question is what teams will be looking to tank in anticipation of the '14 FA/ Draft classes and who is attainable?

Regarding Len, he did some things to impress me, but also did some Javale type things that scared me. He shot a couple of step back long 2s, he forced a drive & got tied up for a jump ball, and that around the backboard shot was impressive, but also showed low bball IQ. Its a tough pick to sell given this FO's failures in developing raw big men like Len.

[Dark Faze]

Oladipo will be the only guy from your above group that will be available I think, and it doesn't make sense to draft a career backup guard when our 1 and 2 of the future are cemented.

Olynyk can play PF/C

Len can only play C

I think we're going to extend Okafor honestly. He's been pretty healthy throughout his career.

We absolutely need a backup/potential replacement for Nene. Olynyk is that guy as a stretch 4 with great mid range ability and nice size.

I think Porter is gone but I don't know if I draft him even at 10. Can he be a better defender than Ariza? Probably not, Ariza is probably a top 5 wing defender in the league. Can he be a better offensive player than Webster? Probably not.

[stevemcqueen1]

Last night, Len was in the paint when an Iowa player set up to take an open 3 pointer. Len shot out of the paint and almost blocked the shot. That play alone left me very impressed by both Len's quick reaction and his foot speed.

Of course, at Len's size all it took was two long steps for him to get from underneath the basket to the perimeter.

Right now, assuming the Zards are picking 8-10 and he's available, I'm drafting Len....over Olynyk, Zeller or any other big man who might be available.

I don't think Zeller will be there in the 8-10 range personally, but who knows? If he's there, Len is a better athlete and has a better frame than Zeller so his upside probably is higher. But Zeller is a very good athlete too and he's 6'11. It's easy to lose sight of the forest through the trees when you start breaking a player down into individual components and trying to quantify upside. For me, I have to remind myself that Zeller has been a significantly better basketball player than Len to date. His upside is very good too, and I think he's a lot safer bet to reach his ceiling than Len. That's why I think he'll ultimately go top five.

I would take Len third among the potential PF/C players behind Noel then Zeller.

If you expand it to PFs & PF/Cs, I would probably take him fourth or fifth. Bennett second ahead of Zeller and Len fourth. If I thought Porter could grow into a PF, I would put him ahead of Len as well.

But I am pretty confident I would take Len ahead of any other front court player in the class after those four. If I've already got him over Olynyk, Plumlee, and Austin today, I see little chance I won't have him ahead of those guys by draft day. If anything, Len's stock is going to go up after the workouts and measurements.

[fishercob]

Thinking back on some of the YODA discussion between PIF and Nivek and how they related to the recent ascent of John Wall. PIF was critiquing the inclusion of physical characteristics/athletic testing into the model because whatever those mattered (if at all) should be born out in the data produced by the players.

So my question as it relates to Wall is this: was his improvement more likely -- more predictable -- as a result of his athletic characteristics? Or, did he just improve because he started shooting better and turning it over less -- and while he athleticism played a part in his overall production, there's no way to isolate for it as a predictor of improvement.

Intuitively, I think most believe that bigger, stronger, faster players have more "upside" than smaller, weaker, slower ones. All else equal, you'd want the better athlete. But is the better athlete more prone to improvement than the worse one, and if so is it specifically because he's the better athlete?

[Dark Faze]

Can people break down why they would choose Len over Olynyk?

Olynyk is better in every category other than blocked shots. Significantly better assist man/high post player, ridiculously high TS%, accounts from players/scouts/staff don't question effort/heart (somewhat the opposite with Len), I'm having a very difficult time seeing how Len is the better prospect. Better defensive percentage despite playing with less athletic players. Good feet on PNR defense.

I mean, Len is big and fast, how many times has this organization made the mistake of going for athleticism over heart/IQ/skill.

[Dark Faze]

2012-13 Kelly Olynyk 36.2 Gonzaga
2011-12 Anthony Davis 35.13 Kentucky
2010-11 Kenneth Faried 34.75 Morehead State
2009-10 DeMarcus Cousins 34.18 Kentucky

^ List of recent bigs with PERs similar to Olynyk.

I mean cmon. Kids a stud.

[jivelikenice]

Oladipo will be the only guy from your above group that will be available I think, and it doesn't make sense to draft a career backup guard when our 1 and 2 of the future are cemented.

Olynyk can play PF/C

Len can only play C

I think we're going to extend Okafor honestly. He's been pretty healthy throughout his career.

We absolutely need a backup/potential replacement for Nene. Olynyk is that guy as a stretch 4 with great mid range ability and nice size.

I think Porter is gone but I don't know if I draft him even at 10. Can he be a better defender than Ariza? Probably not, Ariza is probably a top 5 wing defender in the league. Can he be a better offensive player than Webster? Probably not.

You wouldn't draft Porter at 10? He's not the defender that Ariza is or the pure shooter that Webster is but he's potentially the best all around player of the group. You're also drafting 10, not top 3; its not preferable but if you can land a projected 25-30 minutes reserve/ 6th man type...Its not the end of the world.

[Dark Faze]

I wouldn't pick him over Olynyk, but would over Len. You just can't pass up a guy with Olynyks advanced stats/eye test.

Reason I'm low on Porter is because if we keep this team intact (it fits Ernies MO and is probably for the best anyway) then how is he ever going to see the floor over Ariza and Webster? Webster is the perfect counterpart to Wall, and when we need defense or to speed things up we bring in Ariza. And both guys are reasonably young.

Having Porter would be great as Webster isn't the healthiest guy in the world, but athletic defensive minded SF's aren't rare in the NBA. You can get them in FA.

[jivelikenice]

^I'm also looking at it from what I think this FO is going to do. Everyone's contract is up after next season....if they don't make the playoffs, they're toast. I don't think Ted will allow that as an excuse to let them do something stupid, but he can easily use that to justify getting a piece that he knows will contribute in some capacity veruss swining for the fences. I just wish he'd have taken that approach in the '11 draft....

[MDStar]

How about Griner? Got to think she's better than Vesely.

http://espn.go.com/dallas/nba/story/_/i ... -mavericks

[Dark Faze]

That's the way I'm looking at it as well Jive.

Olynyk makes sense from an FO perspective. Nene is injury prone while Okafor kind of isn't. Olynyk can play PF/C, so he's good to have in case of front court injuries. Len can really only play C.

Ernie is probably going to bring the team back. That's just the way he operates, and for once it kind of makes sense. This team when healthy should be .500 at a minimum, which is a playoff team. He's going to max John in the off-season and probably extend Ariza and Okafor next year if we make the playoffs.

I don't really see either guy walking. Guys like Webster and Ariza aren't getting much on the open market these days. Heck, Mayo got a 4 million PER contract and look at that guys potential. All the money goes to franchise players/potential all-stars or decent bigs. Everyone else gets underpaid.

[fishercob]

Can people break down why they would choose Len over Olynyk?

Olynyk is better in every category other than blocked shots. Significantly better assist man/high post player, ridiculously high TS%, accounts from players/scouts/staff don't question effort/heart (somewhat the opposite with Len), I'm having a very difficult time seeing how Len is the better prospect. Better defensive percentage despite playing with less athletic players. Good feet on PNR defense.

I mean, Len is big and fast, how many times has this organization made the mistake of going for athleticism over heart/IQ/skill.

Age difference and potential. Bigs need to be excellent defenders on contending teams. Much greater liklihood Len grows into an excellent defender than Olynyk.

I like Olynyk's offensive skill set a lot, but I prefer Len.

[Dark Faze]

I mean, other than once in a generation players (Garnett, Davis, Dwight) young bigs almost never contribute in a meaningful way defensively. It's just such a ridiculous transition, and Len is already average to poor offensively.

You look at some of the best defensive bigs in the game today--Asik, Larry Sanders, Joakim...these guys are all 24+ years of age. Len being 19 isn't an advantage. Bigs that young are just...you are basically paying them to learn how to play basketball on your dime. More often than not those bigs are so terrible offensively that they almost never contribute to wins until a second contract -- See Tyson Chandler.

It's just not an investment worth making for a team where defensive isn't the problem right now.

[nate33]

I don't think either Olynyk or Muscala qualify as a "stretch four". Being a stretch four is more than just being a big man with an outside shot. You need an extremely accurate outside shot, and, more importantly, you need to have a quick release. It's the quick release that forces opposing defenders not to stray too far in help defense.

I'm not saying that this should disqualify either guy from being selected. I'm just saying that selecting them won't be the same as acquiring a guy like Ryan Anderson or Ilyasova

[jivelikenice]

I'm warming up to the idea of potentially trading for Ilyasova....slightly. However, I still wouldn't give the pick and a contract like Ariza's of Okafor's....Their expirings have value, as does the pick. If they want the pick we should offer Vesely/ Booker/ Singleton and the 1st rounder for Ilyasova. They can get out of all three contracts after a year so they dump long-term salary and get a top 11 pick. The Wiz give up a pick, but also get rid of guys who don't look like they have a future here. They also retain Okafor and Ariza and can use them in a separate deal if they choose to or let them expire.

[Dark Faze]

I highly doubt we get rid of Okafor or Ariza. I mean, we're a great team because of our defense. It's not an Ernie move to dump talent early...he's got a reputation for holding on to guys far longer than he should even when we're losing, so unless those guys get ridiculous offers I think this team is basically set in its core.

Doubt the Bucks make that trade anyway. They have to be gunshy now after moving Tobias Harris who looks like a stud.

As for the stretch 4 definition...I mean I consider a stretch 4 a big that can hit the jumpshot more often than not off the screen role or out open. Having a three ball isn't really necessary.

[pancakes3]

To me, a stretch 4 means they're able to stand out by the 3 point line. Either they can drain it from there or they have enough perimeter skills to make a play from there. Dirk, Ryan Anderson, and Kevin Love are. KG, Bosh, and Gasol kinda are. Everyone else is just a PF. Even guys like Zach Randolph or Elton Brand can nail down an 18 footer. They're not "stretch" anythings. Olynyk and Muscalas are just C's with range which wasn't that rare back in the 90's but seems to be extremely rare nowadays.