Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LIII "Lottery/Draft"Edition)

[Bensational]

With no clear cut option this year, the Magic have to go with Nerlens Noel. Two big reasons:

1. Solid big men with potential are always killer assets, gives the Magic a killer abundance of them

2. Most important - there's a great chance he misses at least some of next season, cementing the Magic in potential top 5 pick territory in one of the deepest drafts (2014) in almost a decade. The last thing we need is some overachieving and healthy rookie coming in and screwing that up.

the number of top 10 "big men" (some top 5) to be less than stellar over the past few years.

Thomas Robinson
Jonas Valančiūnas (opinion still out on him)
Jan VEssely
Epke Udoh
Greg Monroe
Hasheem Thabeet
Jordan Hill
Bismack Biyombo
Tristan Thompson

ones that panned out so far
Blake Griffin
Favors
Cousins
Davis
Drummond

less than 50% success rate over the past 4 years

Utterly absurd post. Some picks are flops, therefore players of similar height should be avoided in the future. Got it.

Here's a list of guys who have been similarly hyped, drafted and not performed to expectations in the past. But yeah, let's ignore that because this guy is even more hyped!!!! PLUS, he's got a damaged knee. Even more reason to take him!

What's utterly absurd is your interpretation of the post.

[RapHippy]

^^giving a little benefit of the doubt. And Monroe has looked out of sorts now that he isnt at center. And my comment was less than stellar, not that they havent panned out yet.

Well I understand, but many of the "panned out" players have a lot of room to grow, specifically Drummond, who's been a beast defensively but on offense, he's no more than Deandre Jordan, and Favors, who has to prove his potential in the next few years (along with Kanter)

Monroe has actually looked pretty good beside Drummond, and has proved himself to be an NBA starter.


BTW; I don't think Noel would be the right pick for us either. His injury history is really scary, and his thin frame as well. Also, looking at the bigger picture, we are in position to be drafting high next year. Other than Harrison and Kasey Hill (which I'm fairly high on) there aren't many PG prospects, while the top prospects next year are filled with forward talent; Parker,Gordon,Randle, and the home run pick, Wiggins.

My preference is to draft Smart, based off of potential and his defensive capabilities. He's also a leader (at least in college) which is important for a young team.

[InFlames]

^^giving a little benefit of the doubt. And Monroe has looked out of sorts now that he isnt at center. And my comment was less than stellar, not that they havent panned out yet.

Well I understand, but many of the "panned out" players have a lot of room to grow, specifically Drummond, who's been a beast defensively but on offense, he's no more than Deandre Jordan, and Favors, who has to prove his potential in the next few years (along with Kanter)

Monroe has actually looked pretty good beside Drummond, and has proved himself to be an NBA starter.


BTW; I don't think Noel would be the right pick for us either. His injury history is really scary, and his thin frame as well. Also, looking at the bigger picture, we are in position to be drafting high next year. Other than Harrison and Kasey Hill (which I'm fairly high on) there aren't many PG prospects, while the top prospects next year are filled with forward talent; Parker,Gordon,Randle, and the home run pick, Wiggins.

My preference is to draft Smart, based off of potential and his defensive capabilities. He's also a leader (at least in college) which is important for a young team.

Your sig is the best I've seen on RealGM.

[G-Heel]

Utterly absurd post. Some picks are flops, therefore players of similar height should be avoided in the future. Got it.

Here's a list of guys who have been similarly hyped, drafted and not performed to expectations in the past. But yeah, let's ignore that because this guy is even more hyped!!!! PLUS, he's got a damaged knee. Even more reason to take him!

What's utterly absurd is your interpretation of the post.

The point is that there are busts in EVERY position. I bet if you make a list of guards and forwards you'll see a bunch of busts too. I agree with Rasharted, avoiding Noel just because there are some bigs that turned out to be bust is absurd. Point out his individual flaws to argue against drafting him, not how big men before him turned out.

[G-Heel]

My preference is to draft Smart, based off of potential and his defensive capabilities. He's also a leader (at least in college) which is important for a young team.

If you're talking about potential and defensive capabilities, then there's none higher than Noel.

I was high on Smart too but doubts about his ability to play PG in the NBA make me back off. While his defense is nice, I think defense at PG is least important because most good teams don't even have great PGs. I guess you can argue defense at PG is important too, but I doubt anyone would say it's more important than C defense.

[MagicFan32]

there are no syracuse zones in the NBA
would not read one bit into that game for Burke.
NBA is a predominantly man to man league, with some zone. Burke is a tremendous 1 on 1 PG

[drsd]

there are no syracuse zones in the NBA
would not read one bit into that game for Burke.
NBA is a predominantly man to man league, with some zone. Burke is a tremendous 1 on 1 PG

Is this an argument against Michael Carter-Williams?

..

[drsd]

What position do you think the Magic should focus on with their First Round pick in the 2013 NBA Draft?

Cohen's Analysis: While Nikola Vucevic is an emerging center because of his ascending rebounding abilities and wide-ranging offensive arsenal, it’s apparent his limitation is on the defensive-end. If there is a prospect in this upcoming draft that the Magic view as worthy of being the perfect sidekick to Vucevic on the frontline who can serve as the defensive force, that may be a valuable direction.

NBA.com LINK

A not so veiled way of saying Orlando should draft Nerlens Noel.



One thing here is that Noel will essentially not play next year. Thus Orlando's high draft pick could not help the team win games; those of you hoping for Wiggins/Parker, perhaps Noel is your guy to get there.


,,

[Bensational]

Utterly absurd post. Some picks are flops, therefore players of similar height should be avoided in the future. Got it.

Here's a list of guys who have been similarly hyped, drafted and not performed to expectations in the past. But yeah, let's ignore that because this guy is even more hyped!!!! PLUS, he's got a damaged knee. Even more reason to take him!

What's utterly absurd is your interpretation of the post.

The point is that there are busts in EVERY position. I bet if you make a list of guards and forwards you'll see a bunch of busts too. I agree with Rasharted, avoiding Noel just because there are some bigs that turned out to be bust is absurd. Point out his individual flaws to argue against drafting him, not how big men before him turned out.

who's saying avoid Noel because there were previous busts? it's more a case of "sure, he looks great now and there is a lot of hype around him - but there was also hype about these guys too, and they haven't panned out so well".

people like to use hindsight to completely blind them about the buzz and hype that elevated players just before their draft. any flaws of Noel's that are raised at this point are immediately dismissed with "but he's only 19!", "he's got plenty of room to develop", "it's only an ACL injury". if he doesn't pan out within 2-3 years, plenty of people will casually forget that, and just say "oh, i always knew he'd struggle". Tyrus Thomas, Thabeet, Thomas Robinson - are similar guys who were hyped as either great athletes, great defenders, great motors or all of the above. they went #4 (traded for the #1), #2 and #5.

it's a case of, let's be realistic, plenty of big men have been highly touted in the past, is it realistic to assume Noel is a guaranteed stud?

if you want flaws in Noel's game, then:

- how's he going to handle being posted up by bigger, stronger players?
- what will he do on offense? will his presence force Vucevic into more of an outside game, hence, taking lower percentage shots?
- what kind of development has he made on offense? does he have much hope of developing?
- his defensive instincts are amazing, but what's his bball IQ like? how sure are we that he won't become Tyrus Thomas 2.0?
- how's his knee going to hold up?

what separates him from Tyrus Thomas, Thomas Robinson, Thabeet, Udoh, Hill, Kanter? what does Noel have which makes him more of a sure thing than any of them?

[Bensational]

What position do you think the Magic should focus on with their First Round pick in the 2013 NBA Draft?

Cohen's Analysis: While Nikola Vucevic is an emerging center because of his ascending rebounding abilities and wide-ranging offensive arsenal, it’s apparent his limitation is on the defensive-end. If there is a prospect in this upcoming draft that the Magic view as worthy of being the perfect sidekick to Vucevic on the frontline who can serve as the defensive force, that may be a valuable direction.

NBA.com LINK

A not so veiled way of saying Orlando should draft Nerlens Noel.



One thing here is that Noel will essentially not play next year. Thus Orlando's high draft pick could not help the team win games; those of you hoping for Wiggins/Parker, perhaps Noel is your guy to get there.


,,

NONE of this years group will make a big difference in terms of wins.

Smart needs time to develop (I think he'll take a couple years, like Billups).
Burke might repeat Lillard's performance this year - but we don't have the rest of Portland's team to help him win games.
McLemore will have a Brad Beal impact at best.
Oladipo isn't a game changer on offense (MKG).
Bennet might give us some more offense - but we're pretty loaded with offensively talented/capable forwards. and so on.
McCollum, see Burke.

Kevin Durant couldn't stop OKC from landing the #3 pick, so it's pretty safe to assume none of these guys will stop us from drafting high.

[CourtsideTV]

not for drafting noel. 2 injuries at a young age = chronic knee problems throughout his career. he can end up being amaresque (like how amare plays right now at his older age)...

[MagicFan32]

Noel can actually play basketball for one
two, he has a motor, so you don't have to worry about him not giving a ****
three, he is incredibly athletic and has good defensive IQ. he blocks balls and keeps them in bounds alot.
four, who cares about offense? the kid is great at finishing, and can pass the ball, we aren't drafting Noel to be a go to offfensive player, we're drafting him in hopes he turns into a camby/chandler defensive force

every guy in this draft has question marks, so let's not pretend there's a no brainer pick above him. the knee is the only worry, but it wasn't microfracture surgery, so if he has to sit part of next year to be 100% that's perfectly ok

[MagicFan32]

not for drafting noel. 2 injuries at a young age = chronic knee problems throughout his career. he can end up being amaresque (like how amare plays right now at his older age)...

big difference between microfracture injury, and this

[shadrock]

What position do you think the Magic should focus on with their First Round pick in the 2013 NBA Draft?

Cohen's Analysis: While Nikola Vucevic is an emerging center because of his ascending rebounding abilities and wide-ranging offensive arsenal, it’s apparent his limitation is on the defensive-end. If there is a prospect in this upcoming draft that the Magic view as worthy of being the perfect sidekick to Vucevic on the frontline who can serve as the defensive force, that may be a valuable direction.

NBA.com LINK

A not so veiled way of saying Orlando should draft Nerlens Noel.



One thing here is that Noel will essentially not play next year. Thus Orlando's high draft pick could not help the team win games; those of you hoping for Wiggins/Parker, perhaps Noel is your guy to get there.


,,

I dont understand why people say Noel wont play next year, isnt he supposed to be right by the end of the year? Meaning he would miss like 1-2 months of next season.

[shadrock]

who's saying avoid Noel because there were previous busts? it's more a case of "sure, he looks great now and there is a lot of hype around him - but there was also hype about these guys too, and they haven't panned out so well".

people like to use hindsight to completely blind them about the buzz and hype that elevated players just before their draft. any flaws of Noel's that are raised at this point are immediately dismissed with "but he's only 19!", "he's got plenty of room to develop", "it's only an ACL injury". if he doesn't pan out within 2-3 years, plenty of people will casually forget that, and just say "oh, i always knew he'd struggle". Tyrus Thomas, Thabeet, Thomas Robinson - are similar guys who were hyped as either great athletes, great defenders, great motors or all of the above. they went #4 (traded for the #1), #2 and #5.

it's a case of, let's be realistic, plenty of big men have been highly touted in the past, is it realistic to assume Noel is a guaranteed stud?

if you want flaws in Noel's game, then:

- how's he going to handle being posted up by bigger, stronger players?
- what will he do on offense? will his presence force Vucevic into more of an outside game, hence, taking lower percentage shots?
- what kind of development has he made on offense? does he have much hope of developing?
- his defensive instincts are amazing, but what's his bball IQ like? how sure are we that he won't become Tyrus Thomas 2.0?
- how's his knee going to hold up?

what separates him from Tyrus Thomas, Thomas Robinson, Thabeet, Udoh, Hill, Kanter? what does Noel have which makes him more of a sure thing than any of them?

Ok so based on this logic, you're saying we should avoid players who have been hyped because some players who were hyped in the past didnt turn out? [/quote]

I dont think im the only one here who has no idea what your angle is on this argument.

[cedric76]

Trade our pick to Utah for favor

Get extra 1st and get Burke


Core

Burke
Moe
Harris
Favor
Vuc

[Bensational]

Ok so based on this logic, you're saying we should avoid players who have been hyped because some players who were hyped in the past didnt turn out?

I dont think im the only one here who has no idea what your angle is on this argument.

i'm just trying to bring balance to the discussion, and challenging the hype around him. at this point, Noel is just a great defender with great athleticism. does that make him a lock for #1? does that make him a lock to be better than those who have been similarly hyped and who have not performed?

i'm the first to admit i'm not a talent scout. i'm one of the people who preferred Okafor over Dwight, and i wasn't that fussed by Lillard at first, either.

i'm also not too fussed about big men. the only big men worth taking #1 are the Olajuwan's, Shaq's and Duncan's - and you KNOW when they come around. at this point, Noel's best projection is as a Camby/Wallace/Chandler style defense only option. Camby never won a championship,Wallace was absurdly elite at defense AND rebounding, and Chandler partnered with Nowitzki for his 'ship - and was then released the following summer because Dallas didn't consider it a smart investment to pay him big money to stay. given Noel's slight frame, i'm not convinced he'll be an elite rebounder.

so what kind of impact are you spending your high draft pick on? blocks, steals and competent rebounding? you're essentially drafting Ibaka with a top 5 pick (granted, Noel's defense already looks much more superior, and beneficial to his team). we've already got an elite rebounder who's got much more offensive capabilities and potential than Noel. so why spend a top 5 pick on a player that's really only going to be used for blocks and steals? you can get that kind of impact anywhere from late lottery - late 1st round.

big men also don't carry as much trade value as you would hope. so drafting Noel with the expectation we can just move him for a star in the future doesn't fit with recent trends. Favors + #4 pick + Harris for Deron. Al Jefferson for a TPE. Chandler for an expiring. Thomas Robinson for an expiring. Using your one opportunity to land an asset which won't even retain his value, and who's essentially going to be a defensive role player, just doesn't seem like a sensible use of a pick.

then there's the long term prospect of a successful Vuc/Noel tandem. both requiring the other to form an elite front court, but both being talented enough to warrant max deals. that's 2 max deals down, and not one single go to scoring option to be accounted for yet.

what kind of players make the biggest impact on championship teams? elite scoring options do, not defensive players. the times that elite defensive players make significant impacts is when they are ALSO an elite scoring option, or when the team already has an elite scoring option/s.

unfortunately, this draft is weak in talented scorers. it's actually just a really **** draft. but i would personally rather take a chance on someone like Smart/McCollum/Burke, and the chance that they can become elite scorers/playmakers. we can get by without a DPOTY player, but we NEED an elite scorer if we ever want to turn the corner.

[Neon1]

it's a case of, let's be realistic, plenty of big men have been highly touted in the past, is it realistic to assume Noel is a guaranteed stud?

if you want flaws in Noel's game, then:

- how's he going to handle being posted up by bigger, stronger players?
- what will he do on offense? will his presence force Vucevic into more of an outside game, hence, taking lower percentage shots?
- what kind of development has he made on offense? does he have much hope of developing?
- his defensive instincts are amazing, but what's his bball IQ like? how sure are we that he won't become Tyrus Thomas 2.0?
- how's his knee going to hold up?

what separates him from Tyrus Thomas, Thomas Robinson, Thabeet, Udoh, Hill, Kanter? what does Noel have which makes him more of a sure thing than any of them?

1. He is not going to stay 220-228 pounds forever. The kid is 18, every person tends to put on weight. No way around that. Besides that, If he comes here to Orlando he is likely playing at least half his minutes at PF which means the light weight isnt an immediate problem (think skinny rookie Dwight/Cato) until he becomes a full time center.

2. This makes ZERO sense. Noel has no semblence of an actual offfensive game outside of alley-oop lobs, transition baskets and offensive putbacks. So WHY on earth would he be displacing Vucevic out of the post? Vucevic actually HAS actual offensive skills. Why would we be basing our big man/low post offense around Noel over Vucevic? This concern makes no sense at all, completely 100% invalid.

3. Personally i dont think he will ever be an "offensive" big man. That is NOT what he is and i dont know why anyone would draft him under the pretence of thinking he will become that. Offensively he is what Tyson Chandler is. If he gets drafted it is based on his potential game changing impact DEFENSIVELY. If a team wants a Al Jefferson/Tim Duncan/Kevin Garnett you dont draft Noel, period.

4. Not exactly sure where this one is going. What about his BBIQ? Defensively? Offensively? If offensively, not sure why it even matters since #1 he isnt going to have the ball in his hands in a decision making manner. He cant shoot and doesnt take jumpers (so shot selection isnt an issue). Defensively, i dont think theres too much worry. He is obvciously extremely instinctive. Tyrus Thomas is great defensively, If he had Noel's length he would dominate the defensive end, his problem is attitude and he just jacks up a ton of low percentage jumpers like Big Baby on a really bad day.

5. How is is knee going to hold up? Who knows. Nobody is either a future teller or the doctor(s) owrking on his ACL. He does have his age and lean body size working in his favor odds wise. Nobody can say one way or the other. If the doctors tell you he looks like he will recover fine you can either trust that or decide against the it.

6. Noel has nothing in common with any of the bolded players.
Thomas Robinson was drafted on the offensive side of the ball, he had no defensive presence in college outside of him getting rebounds. Besides that, the guy is damn near small forward size.

Thabeet is a completely immobile big, who cannot guard anything outside of his immediate area. Complete opposite of what was seen of Noel.

Hill and Kanter? No idea where you draw ANY kind of comparison to Noel there, completely different players in every way. Not even going to take into account the fact that Kanter has shown to be very good in his minutes so far (14.9ppg 10.7rpg 1.0bpg on .525fg% .734ft%) he is still the complete opposite of what Noel is as a player.

[Neon1]

unfortunately, this draft is weak in talented scorers. it's actually just a really **** draft. but i would personally rather take a chance on someone like Smart/McCollum/Burke, and the chance that they can become elite scorers/playmakers. we can get by without a DPOTY player, but we NEED an elite scorer if we ever want to turn the corner.

You REALLY think Smart/McCollum/Burke, have a BETTER chance of becoming elite offensive players more than Noel has at becoming elite DEFENSIVELY?,

This is what led me to deciding Noel is the best pick for this team. From what i have seen he is the ONLY player that looks to have a HIGH game impacting ability. Would i love to get a CP3, Durant, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Dwight etc rather then a one way guy like Noel? Hell yes i would, i would take that TEN OUT OF TEN times.

But the thing is, THAT type of player just doesnt look to be there. You cant just force him to be there, if he is not there, he is not there. Period.

Seriously, do you really think you are thinking rationally, by saying lets NOT draft a potential DPOY type player because you WANT an elite scorer instead? Even when you do not see one there? The ideal player we all WANT is not there, you take the best you get get in another area, and you keep trying to get an elite guy either in a future draft or in free agency.

[drsd]

You REALLY think Smart/McCollum/Burke, have a BETTER chance of becoming elite offensive players more than Noel has at becoming elite DEFENSIVELY?

Slightly off of the point.

Was reading a statistical analysis of NBA players that had an ACL injury. The conclusion is that all come back with a dramatically improved mid-range game. I guess that comes from only having stationary shooting as a training drill.

My point: the blown ACL might actually improve Noel's game.

..