Official Speculation Thread (Pt.LIII "Lottery/Draft"Edition)

[Cigamodnalro]

Eric Gordon will probably be available and we have the assets to get him... I, personally have never really been a big Eric Gordon fan but could see us making that move.

Not a Hennigan move, imho. The big dollars are reserved for players who deserve them, and should be.

[Cigamodnalro]

Eric Gordon .. see Hill, Grant

Grant Hill was regarded by some as the heir apparent to MJ when we signed him. He was arguably the best player in the league. He had never been injured prior to that playoff series vs. MIA.

Eric Gordon is a volume shooting, fragile, undersized guard who lets his unhappiness in NO affect his performance and who allegedly does not get along with Monty Williams.

They're both injury risks, sure. But Grant Hill, on crutches, was worth the risk. Gordon isn't, even when healthy.

[G-Heel]

I don't know how you can say it's a safe bet with a straight face. It's absolutely the opposite.

Let's say they take Smart & Bennett. They'll have a core of Smart, Walker, Gilchrist, Bennett, and Biyombo with Ben Gordon and Henderson. They can sacrifice some of that youth for good players and sign or trade for players this summer. They can get 35+ wins easily, it's not hard at all to get 40 wins. Add to the fact that teams going to want to tank next year, we'd see lot of teams more than willing to trade good veterans for one of those young players.

Even if they only win 30 games, that might give them 10th pick. Next year class will be talented but there's a big drop off after 5-6 players. Do you really want to trade our pick for, most likely, a 10th+ pick?

That logic only works if you assume the 5th best player this year is better than the 10th best next year. In my opinion, Smart and McLemore wouldn't be standout picks next year. I just don't think that missing out on the 3rd best player in this draft is too much to risk for another lottery pick in 2014. No matte rhow much money the Cats have, no big name free agent wants to play there so it comes down to assuming the worst team in the NBA won't take a huge leap forward.

1. Why are we comparing the 5th pick this year to next year's 10th? Getting the 5th pick is worst case scenario, so we should use us getting the 2nd pick as most likely. And no, I don't think the 10th pick next year will be better than this year's top 3 pick.
2. You are underestimating the power of money. You think Michael Jordan will have trouble getting borderline all stars when he is willing to overpay for them? If you're talking about superstars then I'd agree, they probably won't want to go there. But we're talking about players like Al Jeff, Millsap, Pekovic, etc. All of them won't come to Bobcats? Please.
3. You're essentially trading a likely top 2 pick, at worse top 5 for maybe a pick in the teens if Bobcats does make the playoffs next season.

[Bensational]

1. He is not going to stay 220-228 pounds forever. The kid is 18, every person tends to put on weight. No way around that. Besides that, If he comes here to Orlando he is likely playing at least half his minutes at PF which means the light weight isnt an immediate problem (think skinny rookie Dwight/Cato) until he becomes a full time center.

- for me, the more fitting body type is Garnett. but i'm not convinced that adding some muscle will equate to ability to bang in the post. the guy is built like a SF, and has shown he can get pushed around whilst boxing out, and getting posted up.

2. This makes ZERO sense. Noel has no semblence of an actual offfensive game outside of alley-oop lobs, transition baskets and offensive putbacks. So WHY on earth would he be displacing Vucevic out of the post? Vucevic actually HAS actual offensive skills. Why would we be basing our big man/low post offense around Noel over Vucevic? This concern makes no sense at all, completely 100% invalid.

- why does it make ZERO sense? why spend a top #5 pick on one side of the ball, with relatively no impact on the other side of the ball? Noel's lack of a midrange game is what displaces Vucevic, or it just makes his job harder, the way Perkins and Ben Wallace did. you're playing 4 on 5 on offense now, with an extra body free to roam in the paint. that also impacts any perimeter player who's looking to get into the paint.

3. Personally i dont think he will ever be an "offensive" big man. That is NOT what he is and i dont know why anyone would draft him under the pretence of thinking he will become that. Offensively he is what Tyson Chandler is. If he gets drafted it is based on his potential game changing impact DEFENSIVELY. If a team wants a Al Jefferson/Tim Duncan/Kevin Garnett you dont draft Noel, period.

- you draft him under that pretence because ideally you want a player who can impact both sides of the ball. Dwight's not a skilled offensive player, but he learned to dominate in the paint. a pure, defensive specialist isn't a necessity for a championship team, but players who can play both sides of the ball are.

4. Not exactly sure where this one is going. What about his BBIQ? Defensively? Offensively? If offensively, not sure why it even matters since #1 he isnt going to have the ball in his hands in a decision making manner. He cant shoot and doesnt take jumpers (so shot selection isnt an issue). Defensively, i dont think theres too much worry. He is obvciously extremely instinctive. Tyrus Thomas is great defensively, If he had Noel's length he would dominate the defensive end, his problem is attitude and he just jacks up a ton of low percentage jumpers like Big Baby on a really bad day.

- BBall IQ certainly matters, because if he has no offensive game, we need to know he's at least going to be useful setting screens and moving off the ball to free up his man. he hasn't needed to do that, since he's been the primary low post focus of his teams to date. Defensively, you're right, i honestly think he's a very safe bet on that front. I'm not going to deny his defensive abilities at all.

5. How is is knee going to hold up? Who knows. Nobody is either a future teller or the doctor(s) owrking on his ACL. He does have his age and lean body size working in his favor odds wise. Nobody can say one way or the other. If the doctors tell you he looks like he will recover fine you can either trust that or decide against the it.

6. Noel has nothing in common with any of the bolded players.
Thomas Robinson was drafted on the offensive side of the ball, he had no defensive presence in college outside of him getting rebounds. Besides that, the guy is damn near small forward size.

Thabeet is a completely immobile big, who cannot guard anything outside of his immediate area. Complete opposite of what was seen of Noel.

Hill and Kanter? No idea where you draw ANY kind of comparison to Noel there, completely different players in every way. Not even going to take into account the fact that Kanter has shown to be very good in his minutes so far (14.9ppg 10.7rpg 1.0bpg on .525fg% .734ft%) he is still the complete opposite of what Noel is as a player.

- the comparison was following up the lack of fulfilled hype.

Thabeet was tagged as "Has impeccable timing and athleticism for someone 7-foot-3 … Is extremely mobile for someone his size. Often beats guards down the court …". Where did that go once he hit the NBA?
Thomas Robinson - "High-motor forward that possesses the power/athleticism combination to be an effective player in the NBA ... Explosive leaper ...". he might still have those physical abilities, but they haven't served him at all.
Jordan Hill - "Has become a factor defensively as he's an excellent shot blocker who is able to intimidate opponents". He hasn't been an excellent shot blocker at all.

[Bensational]

unfortunately, this draft is weak in talented scorers. it's actually just a really **** draft. but i would personally rather take a chance on someone like Smart/McCollum/Burke, and the chance that they can become elite scorers/playmakers. we can get by without a DPOTY player, but we NEED an elite scorer if we ever want to turn the corner.

You REALLY think Smart/McCollum/Burke, have a BETTER chance of becoming elite offensive players more than Noel has at becoming elite DEFENSIVELY?,

woah woah woah... i never said they had a better chance. i said that i value elite offensive options over elite defensive options, and that i'd rather take a chance on them developing into that, than i would take a chance on Noel stepping in and being a capable defender from the get go.

This is what led me to deciding Noel is the best pick for this team. From what i have seen he is the ONLY player that looks to have a HIGH game impacting ability. Would i love to get a CP3, Durant, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Dwight etc rather then a one way guy like Noel? Hell yes i would, i would take that TEN OUT OF TEN times.

But the thing is, THAT type of player just doesnt look to be there. You cant just force him to be there, if he is not there, he is not there. Period.

Seriously, do you really think you are thinking rationally, by saying lets NOT draft a potential DPOY type player because you WANT an elite scorer instead? Even when you do not see one there? The ideal player we all WANT is not there, you take the best you get get in another area, and you keep trying to get an elite guy either in a future draft or in free agency.

Smart, McCollum and Burke certainly have the skill base to become elite scorers in the NBA. Whether or not they can put it together is another question, but I have no doubt that at least one of those guys will average 15-20ppg next year.

a lock down defensive presence should be a final addition once you've got all the other pieces in place first. it's a dressing to a relatively complete salad. you don't take Ben Wallace unless you've got Billups and Stackhouse on your team already. you don't take Chandler unless you've got Dirk, Kidd and Terry. you prioritize getting the guy who can carry your offensive load, and then you go and get a defensive anchor for pennies on the dollar. (Chandler for an expiring, Camby for an expiring, Ben Wallace for an expiring - these are all deals that have happened.)

without the ability to impact the offensive side of the game, Noel's just going to push himself into that bracket of expensive players who are deemed as final pieces to an already strong core. that's why those guys are rarely moved for anything of significant value.

[msmoore66]

One thing I think we are overlooking a little with Noel, we say he has no offensive game and no bball IQ, but I remember from some of his early college games (I didn't watch, just read about) he apparently was quite adept at making good passes out of the post etc? Or was that just a random occurrence over those games? The ability to make good passes implies to me his Bball IQ may not be as bad as suggested.

[BadMofoPimp]

One thing I think we are overlooking a little with Noel, we say he has no offensive game and no bball IQ, but I remember from some of his early college games (I didn't watch, just read about) he apparently was quite adept at making good passes out of the post etc? Or was that just a random occurrence over those games? The ability to make good passes implies to me his Bball IQ may not be as bad as suggested.

Oh, that was against Baldwin State CC.

[OrlChamps2030]

a lock down defensive presence should be a final addition once you've got all the other pieces in place first. it's a dressing to a relatively complete salad. you don't take Ben Wallace unless you've got Billups and Stackhouse on your team already. you don't take Chandler unless you've got Dirk, Kidd and Terry. you prioritize getting the guy who can carry your offensive load, and then you go and get a defensive anchor for pennies on the dollar. (Chandler for an expiring, Camby for an expiring, Ben Wallace for an expiring - these are all deals that have happened.)

without the ability to impact the offensive side of the game, Noel's just going to push himself into that bracket of expensive players who are deemed as final pieces to an already strong core. that's why those guys are rarely moved for anything of significant value.

Why should there be an order for what kind of guys you want to draft? I'm not sure GMs think that way. So you're telling me if Ben Wallace came out this year and you had a crystal ball that tells you he will become a 4x DPOTY, 4x all-star, 6x-All NBA defensive first team, 3x All-Nba second teams, 2x-All-Nba 3rd teams, you would still pass on him for Smart/Burke/McCollum?

I disagree with that line of thinking 100%. Go with who has the most impact on a game..Which is Noel in this class. Stop fighting the idea of drafting Noel. Fighting the idea of drafting him because of his INJURY is understandable..Fighting the idea because he is a lockdown defensive presence? I'm not following. There are two ways we aren't getting Noel: If his injury gets red-flagged...Or he is already off the board. I don't think we are passing on him otherwise.

And Defensive Anchors for pennies on the dollars? Not in the new CBA.

[OrlChamps2030]

One thing I think we are overlooking a little with Noel, we say he has no offensive game and no bball IQ, but I remember from some of his early college games (I didn't watch, just read about) he apparently was quite adept at making good passes out of the post etc? Or was that just a random occurrence over those games? The ability to make good passes implies to me his Bball IQ may not be as bad as suggested.

You are correct. Noel is known for being a good passer. Very underrated part of his game.

Here's a nice clip of Noel contributing almost everyway possible for a big.. 15 points 11 rebs 7 blocks 6 assists 4 steals

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsc8cd3Rpc4[/youtube]

[SEBAS-07]

Noel is also a decent ball- handler, I think he could dribble against some frontcourt players.
He reminds me of Joakim Noah.

[Bensational]

a lock down defensive presence should be a final addition once you've got all the other pieces in place first. it's a dressing to a relatively complete salad. you don't take Ben Wallace unless you've got Billups and Stackhouse on your team already. you don't take Chandler unless you've got Dirk, Kidd and Terry. you prioritize getting the guy who can carry your offensive load, and then you go and get a defensive anchor for pennies on the dollar. (Chandler for an expiring, Camby for an expiring, Ben Wallace for an expiring - these are all deals that have happened.)

without the ability to impact the offensive side of the game, Noel's just going to push himself into that bracket of expensive players who are deemed as final pieces to an already strong core. that's why those guys are rarely moved for anything of significant value.

Why should there be an order for what kind of guys you want to draft? I'm not sure GMs think that way. So you're telling me if Ben Wallace came out this year and you had a crystal ball that tells you he will become a 4x DPOTY, 4x all-star, 6x-All NBA defensive first team, 3x All-Nba second teams, 2x-All-Nba 3rd teams, you would still pass on him for Smart/Burke/McCollum?

I disagree with that line of thinking 100%. Go with who has the most impact on a game..Which is Noel in this class. Stop fighting the idea of drafting Noel. Fighting the idea of drafting him because of his INJURY is understandable..Fighting the idea because he is a lockdown defensive presence? I'm not following. There are two ways we aren't getting Noel: If his injury gets red-flagged...Or he is already off the board. I don't think we are passing on him otherwise.

And Defensive Anchors for pennies on the dollars? Not in the new CBA.

Strong offensive options trump defense nearly every time on championship teams. Is there one that is ready to perform right now? No. Are there guys with the potential to develop that way? Yes.

One way players aren't as valuable as a two way player. Comparing Noel to Wallace already is a big leap of faith. Wallace learned and developed into a defensive superstar. Noel has great instincts, but what have we seen from him that shows his capacity to learn and develop as well as Wallace?

I'm not fighting drafting Noel, I'll be happy if we take him. I'm fighting the assumption he's a sure thing, or that he's the best prospect to take. There's no real discussion on the matter because it's always the same hype based rhetoric that denies the prospect of NOT drafting him. "he's a future DPOTY ZOMG", "it's only an ACL", " no other sure things".

Would you rather have Camby, or Iverson/Ray Allen/Kobe/Nash? All taken from the same draft. All have had more impact than Camby. All are offensive players. None were sure things other than Iverson, because otherwise they'd have been picked higher.

And expensive bigs will ALWAYS be available for pennies on the dollar because they are intrinsically overpaid for what they do.

[OrlChamps2030]

a lock down defensive presence should be a final addition once you've got all the other pieces in place first. it's a dressing to a relatively complete salad. you don't take Ben Wallace unless you've got Billups and Stackhouse on your team already. you don't take Chandler unless you've got Dirk, Kidd and Terry. you prioritize getting the guy who can carry your offensive load, and then you go and get a defensive anchor for pennies on the dollar. (Chandler for an expiring, Camby for an expiring, Ben Wallace for an expiring - these are all deals that have happened.)

without the ability to impact the offensive side of the game, Noel's just going to push himself into that bracket of expensive players who are deemed as final pieces to an already strong core. that's why those guys are rarely moved for anything of significant value.

Why should there be an order for what kind of guys you want to draft? I'm not sure GMs think that way. So you're telling me if Ben Wallace came out this year and you had a crystal ball that tells you he will become a 4x DPOTY, 4x all-star, 6x-All NBA defensive first team, 3x All-Nba second teams, 2x-All-Nba 3rd teams, you would still pass on him for Smart/Burke/McCollum?

I disagree with that line of thinking 100%. Go with who has the most impact on a game..Which is Noel in this class. Stop fighting the idea of drafting Noel. Fighting the idea of drafting him because of his INJURY is understandable..Fighting the idea because he is a lockdown defensive presence? I'm not following. There are two ways we aren't getting Noel: If his injury gets red-flagged...Or he is already off the board. I don't think we are passing on him otherwise.

And Defensive Anchors for pennies on the dollars? Not in the new CBA.

Strong offensive options trump defense nearly every time on championship teams. Is there one that is ready to perform right now? No. Are there guys with the potential to develop that way? Yes.

One way players aren't as valuable as a two way player. Comparing Noel to Wallace already is a big leap of faith. Wallace learned and developed into a defensive superstar. Noel has great instincts, but what have we seen from him that shows his capacity to learn and develop as well as Wallace?

I'm not fighting drafting Noel, I'll be happy if we take him. I'm fighting the assumption he's a sure thing, or that he's the best prospect to take. There's no real discussion on the matter because it's always the same hype based rhetoric that denies the prospect of NOT drafting him. "he's a future DPOTY ZOMG", "it's only an ACL", " no other sure things".

Would you rather have Camby, or Iverson/Ray Allen/Kobe/Nash? All taken from the same draft. All have had more impact than Camby. All are offensive players. None were sure things other than Iverson, because otherwise they'd have been picked higher.

And expensive bigs will ALWAYS be available for pennies on the dollar because they are intrinsically overpaid for what they do.

Response to first bold: I wasn't comparing Noel to Wallace. You said "You don't take a Ben Wallace without a Billups and Stackhouse". My response to that statement is: Why wouldn't you take a 4x DPOTY 4x All-star in a weak draft? Do you think Marcus Smart, Burke, Or Mccollum will have a greater impact than Ben Wallace did? If NO, then why wouldn't you take Wallace over them?

Response to second bold: Comparing one of the deepest drafts of all time with 3 mvps and 11 all-stars to one of the weaker drafts.. Not sure where this is going. Perhaps a better draft to cite would be the 2000 draft, where Kenyon Martin was chosen first overall.

[KillMonger]

One thing I think we are overlooking a little with Noel, we say he has no offensive game and no bball IQ, but I remember from some of his early college games (I didn't watch, just read about) he apparently was quite adept at making good passes out of the post etc? Or was that just a random occurrence over those games? The ability to make good passes implies to me his Bball IQ may not be as bad as suggested.

You are correct. Noel is known for being a good passer. Very underrated part of his game.

Here's a nice clip of Noel contributing almost everyway possible for a big.. 15 points 11 rebs 7 blocks 6 assists 4 steals

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsc8cd3Rpc4[/youtube]

That's a cool highlight, but man i couldn't help but notice all the times he fell down which is more than most bigs i watch. For me Noel is High Risk/med-high reward, from what i hear he's could be the next Tyson Chandler but off the top of my head Tyson didn't become half-way decent until his 6th or 7th year and that's with him being healthy for the most part.

If we pick Noel we would have to be in it for the long haul but hey it could pay off. Smart is definitely the more safer pick, but there is quite a bit of potential there that could be honed into something great. Noel has the higher ceiling compared to Smart but he has further to go to fulfill that potential if that makes any sense

[OrlChamps2030]

What makes Smart the safer pick let alone "definitely" safer..There are a lot of question marks about smart. What is his position? What is his offensive game going to look like in the NBA? Pause, but what is his body going to look like in 4 years?

To me Noel and Smart are "projects" while McLemore and Porter are more "sure" things.

[KillMonger]

What makes Smart the safer pick let alone "definitely" safer..There are a lot of question marks about smart. What is his position? What is his offensive game going to look like in the NBA? Pause, but what is his body going to look like in 4 years?

To me Noel and Smart are "projects" while McLemore and Porter are more "sure" things.

while there is no definite way to measure this but i believe history will say that Bigs have a higher chance of busting than guards do. I just think that even with Smart's flaws he's STILL a bit more polished as a player than Noel is, quite honestly both players should stay another year in college but Smart imo is more ready to come out this year than Neol is even if he wasn't injured imho. Either way in my eyes you can't go wrong with either Noel or Smart because to me looking at them as is you can't really put one over the other

[Bensational]

Response to first bold: I wasn't comparing Noel to Wallace. You said "You don't take a Ben Wallace without a Billups and Stackhouse". My response to that statement is: Why wouldn't you take a 4x DPOTY 4x All-star in a weak draft? Do you think Marcus Smart, Burke, Or Mccollum will have a greater impact than Ben Wallace did? If NO, then why wouldn't you take Wallace over them?

Response to second bold: Comparing one of the deepest drafts of all time with 3 mvps and 11 all-stars to one of the weaker drafts.. Not sure where this is going. Perhaps a better draft to cite would be the 2000 draft, where Kenyon Martin was chosen first overall.

you're not taking a 4xDPOTY in a weak draft, though. you're taking a player who's got a skill set that projects to potentially develop into that role. can we use that same logic to assume Smart/Burke/McCollum will be the next Rose/Paul/Westbrook? if not, then the logic doesn't apply.

you can look at the odds - what are the odds that Noel develops into a great NBA defender? personally, I'd put it somewhere around 80-90%. what are the odds those guys develop into great NBA PGs? that's where you'd need detailed scouting (which I'm not privy to) but let's say the odds are roughly 60-70%? does that 10-20% difference equate to a reasonable enough gamble to take a chance on one of those prospects over Noel, given that they're looking to be franchise caliber offensive options and not defensive anchors? in terms of developing a championship roster, then yes. but that all hinges on whether or not Hennigan's scouting projects those guys on that level and what the odds are that they can reach those lofty heights.

looking at the 96 draft v the 00 draft, sure, it could be much more like that. was Kenyon Martin the best pick in that draft? he was certainly a key contributor to a team that already had Kidd and Jefferson (then Vince). he was also a highly touted defensive presence. he's actually probably had a very understated career, since both NJ and Denver made strong playoff runs with him, but i wouldn't consider him any kind of "must have" prospect. so what if Noel ends up being the next Kenyon Martin, and not Wallace? is that worth the pick? we don't have Jason Kidd, Carmelo Anthony, Vince Carter, Chauncey Billups or even Andre Miller, so how much is that going to highlight how insignificant his impact is?

oddly enough, that 2000 draft looks very comparable on a superficial level:

Kmart - Noel
Mike Miller - McLemore
Fizer - Bennet
Crawford - MCW
Dooling - Smart/Oladipo
Przybilla/Mihm/Moiso/Thomas - Len/Olynk/Gobert/Dieng

[RapHippy]

What makes Smart the safer pick let alone "definitely" safer..There are a lot of question marks about smart. What is his position? What is his offensive game going to look like in the NBA? Pause, but what is his body going to look like in 4 years?

To me Noel and Smart are "projects" while McLemore and Porter are more "sure" things.

The main thing that makes Smart/Noel safer picks (even though I disagree on Noel because of injury history) is defense. They've shown defensive instincts that can develop into something much bigger, while players like McLemore/Porter may be "sure" things offensively, they have flaws that are more glaring, and those flaws may be carried on to the nba, while defense/rebounding is the easiest transitions comparatively.

I do not like Noel/Mclemore though, history of injuries for Noel and the way Mclemore hasn't stepped up all season long for Kansas.

[GameOver25]

Trey Burke please.

[NickAnderson]

Noel needs to learn how to land, Jesus.

[RookieStar]

Trey Burke please.

im kinda leaning towards this too