The Lebron Thread (Pt. 2)

[rjchpd]

^^This is also why I think the common MVP criticism (Lebron has help so he doesn't need to do as much!) is so silly. Miami has realized (rightly) that they're at their best when he's doing a lot, and designed a team predicated around him doing a lot! The fact that his supporting cast is ridiculously talented doesn't change that his role is still huge

Great point.

[mopper8]

They look astounding with James and Bosh on the floor together without Wade, and they look even more impressive with James and Wade on the floor together without Bosh. Playing the two of them together with James though causes problems. You'd think that James + Wade + floor spacing big would bolster their offensive performances past just James + Wade, but that doesn't seem to be the case

I wonder if this is in part a UD effect. The Big 3 start the 1st and 3rd quarter of every game with Haslem in the lineup, who is probably Miami's worst offensive player that gets any minutes at F or C (compare: Bosh, Anderson, Battier, Lebron as the only other guys getting minutes). So they might be weighed down by playing a huge portion of their minutes.

You have the Big 3 playing 1577.7 minutes. 739.8 of those minutes (line-up 4 in the 4-man rotations) are with Haslem, or nearly 47% of their time together on the court. That 4-man unit is +12.5 pts/100 possession. Replace Haslem with Battier (line-up 6, 468 minutes) (I doubt Miami has played a Wade/James/Battier/Haslem/Bosh lineup, so those minutes should have no overlap with the Big 3 + Haslem minutes) and that balloons to +18.9 pts/100 possessions.

edited to add link. oops

[SideshowBob]

Indeed, that would explain a good amount. Wade/James/Battier/Haslem/Bosh have played all of 1 possession all season long.

4-Man lineup of Wade/James/Bosh/Battier

120.2 ORTG
101.3 DRTG

Net +18.9 in 468.3 minutes

[mopper8]

Indeed, that would explain a good amount. Wade/James/Battier/Haslem/Bosh have played all of 1 possession all season long.

4-Man lineup of Wade/James/Bosh/Battier

120.2 ORTG
101.3 DRTG

Net +18.9 in 468.3 minutes

Nice. Where do you get that Ortg/Drtg? I don't see it on bball-ref lineup data, just the net.

edit: I'd love to see that 1 possession

[SideshowBob]

http://bkref.com/tiny/AELxm

Basically, from a specific player page, click Finders->Lineups instead of hitting the Lineups tab. Then you can sort by season, totals or per100, PTS/OppPTS/NET, and all that good stuff. Using totals makes it very easy to copy/paste/analyze in a spreadsheet.

I'm on my phone otherwise I'd have posted the data for that possession. It should be in that link however

[Greatness]

Apparently that one possession was against Memphis

[mopper8]

Does anyone know if foul-draw based on type of possession is available? I have a hypothesis that I would like to test, comparing Lebron's foul-draw rate on post-ups to foul-draw rate on drives.

[SideshowBob]

Synergy has the data on that kind of stuff, but they don't keep specific track of drives.

They have him drawing a shooting foul on 11.3% of his 212 post-up plays (or whatever they consider "post-up plays"). That's his second highest rate outside of transition (12.9% of 310 plays).

[ThatsWhatIShved]

What other player can get this kind of hype after just being outplayed by Brandon Jennings? The ESPN/Twitter/Social media/Youtube hype train is unreal.

[SideshowBob]

I wonder if this is in part a UD effect.

So I took this a bit further and removed Haslem's minutes that coincided with the Big 3 altogether.

Bosh + James + Wade (No Haslem)

118.9 ORTG
106.0 DRTG

Net +12.8 in 837.9 minutes


So we definitely see some monster results offensively, but without him they see a rather significant defensive dropoff. So I proceeded to again tackle the Wade + Bosh factor.

Bosh + James + Wade + Haslem

111.0 ORTG
98.5 DRTG

Net +12.5 in 739.8 minutes

James + Wade + Haslem (No Bosh)

126.9 ORTG
102.7 DRTG

Net +24.2 in 166.9 minutes

James + Bosh + Haslem (No Wade)

115.9 ORTG
108.4 DRTG

Net +7.5 in 107.5 minutes

Wade + Bosh + Haslem (No James)

117.6 ORTG
133.3 DRTG

Net -15.7 in 7.4 minutes

So. The Wade/Bosh/Haslem no James combination is obviously too small to mean anything. That's thrown out. The other samples are more than decent enough however, and we're still seeing a similar issue here. Splitting Wade and Bosh up tends to yield better results than putting them on the floor together (only offensively in the case of Bosh here), regardless of who else is on the floor with them.

[SideshowBob]

Here's what's crazier. Compare Lebron to himself

FGA 5 feet or less:

2004: 558
2005: 586
2006: 707
2007: 592
2008: 652
2009: 569
2010: 546
2011: 533
2012: 437
2013: 563

FTA:

2004: 460
2005: 636
2006: 814
2007: 701
2008: 771
2009: 762
2010: 773
2011: 663
2012: 502
2012: 519

FTA/FGA Ratio


2004: 0.82
2005: 1.09
2006: 1.15
2007: 1.18
2008: 1.18
2009: 1.34
2010: 1.42
2011: 1.24
2012: 1.15
2013: 0.92

He's driving more frequently this season than he has since 2010. It's not even a debate, the drive was not even a facet of his game in 2011, and last year it was common against awful defenses that frequently left a gaping hole open in the lane but that's about it. This season is easily the best he's looked physically since coming to Miami, and yet, for the only time since his rookie season, that ratio has fallen under 1.0.

[PCProductions]

Is anyone else pumped up for this game? Lebron vs. Boston is always a treat. Not to mention that Wade's playing too. Should be a good one.

[SideshowBob]

With 8 points tonight, Lebron'll become the only player in NBA history with 7 seasons of at least 2000 points, 500 rebounds, and 500 assists.

[JordansBulls]

Is anyone else pumped up for this game? Lebron vs. Boston is always a treat. Not to mention that Wade's playing too. Should be a good one.

Not without KG, Pierce nor Rondo. Not sure how you can get pumped up for this game.

[PCProductions]

Is anyone else pumped up for this game? Lebron vs. Boston is always a treat. Not to mention that Wade's playing too. Should be a good one.

Not without KG, Pierce nor Rondo. Not sure how you can get pumped up for this game.

It's Boston, man. Are you forgetting Jeff Green had the game of his life last they played?

[ThatsWhatIShved]

Is anyone else pumped up for this game? Lebron vs. Boston is always a treat. Not to mention that Wade's playing too. Should be a good one.

Not without KG, Pierce nor Rondo. Not sure how you can get pumped up for this game.

It's Boston, man. Are you forgetting Jeff Green had the game of his life last they played?

Jeff Green would not sniff a rotation in the 90s. The fact that a game against a mediocore team missing it's 3 best players is considered a marquee matchup confirms the fact that this is an * season.

[JordansBulls]

Is anyone else pumped up for this game? Lebron vs. Boston is always a treat. Not to mention that Wade's playing too. Should be a good one.

Not without KG, Pierce nor Rondo. Not sure how you can get pumped up for this game.

It's Boston, man. Are you forgetting Jeff Green had the game of his life last they played?

Boston would probably still lose if Wade, Lebron and Bosh all sat out this game.

[SideshowBob]

218.2 ORTG in the 6 minutes Lebron was on the floor in that quarter. Only missed shot was a Wade jumper. No turnovers.

[SideshowBob]

Last 41 G

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
37.2  27.5   7.8    7.6    1.9    0.9    3.0  .667   .627    25.8   130

That's a PER just under 37 sustained over 41 games.

Last 8 G

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
34.1  28.5   6.6    7.4    1.6    1.1    2.8  .764   .740    28.0   143

That's about a PER of 43.

[thebottomline]

That was a 41.4 PER game using mysticbb's estimation formula. Might be ahead of MJ's best now. The PER record is still in play.