Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I just have to say that most of you guys post so much good stuff that it's tough for me to keep up, much less formulate a position. But I read most of this and the Trade thread, so I'm gonna take a minute to throw some stuff into the mix.

Right now I think the Wizards have a decent top 6-man rotation. Depending on what happens, I would add Price to make it 7 deep. If they all stayed healthy for most of the season, that would be a playoff team. And I do believe that GM John Wall will re-sign Webster for as much of the MLE as he asks for, putting this core in place for next year already. But as noted above by others, the bench is weak. If anyone goes down, things look grim.

As for the draft, my biggest hope is that they get a top three pick in the lottery. If it's #1, take Noel and see what they can get among combo guards and stretch 4s with the second rounders. Or flip both the second rounders to move into the late 1st and grab BPA. But either way, I'd be happy to let the kid heal and bide his time behind Okafor and Nene.

If they draw #2 or 3, I hope either Utah is in love with Smart or Burke and the Wiz can flip the pick plus Seraphin or Booker for Kanter and one of 17 or 21 this year; OR Milwaukee is in love with McLemore and they can flip the pick plus Vesely or Booker for Ilyasova and their 15. In either case, they might have to add Singleton and/or a 2nd rounder - hopefully the later one - to get the mid-late 1st pick back. Then go BPA with that pick.

If the pick stays around #8, I lean toward agreeing with Dark Faze and others that they should pick someone who has produced in college and will produce in the Association. I think the Wiz really need front court depth next year and beyond. (I also think they will try to extend Okafor, but there is a lot that can happen before the end of next season.) And while certain of the Bigs are a little older, that doesn't really bug me because they tend to take longer to develop anyway. Also agree with Nivek: the second rounders are where you look for diamonds in the rough. Take a chance on someone who does one thing very well - and this team needs shooters.

That's my two cents for now.

I know when you do post it is worth the read, WizTom.

A top-3 pick would be great. Noel is #1. it would be good to select at 2 or 3 for another team, and try to offload guys who don't fit for the Wizards while returning a later first.

If the pick is in the 8 range I do believe the pick will be Alex Len, and he's not the worst pick.

I post my ideas so voluminously and frequently that I think I overload most here. Soon, I will have my own blog and that will cut down the traffic here. I won't shout or force any more ideas in this forum and I will try to direct my ideas to the right audience and hopefully for the right reasons.

The big picture is what you said above, WizTom. The top-7 Wizards are a playoff team. Personally, I am very flexible on who they add and how. Washington could use a stretch big and or a tall, shot blocker. They need offensive efficiency from a go-to big. Also, they need a young slasher who is a morph of Webster and Ariza.

I am very encouraged. I have to give Ernie and Ted credit for changing the culture. I am glad they DIDN"T win to try and pass teams like Minnesota and Toronto in the W/L. The more lottery balls the better.

The last thing I can say is BPA from this draft is easy because there are a lot of good players who fit needs of the Wizards.

[WizTom]

Mahalo, CCJ.

When you start your blog, let us know. I'll follow it. Although I reckon you have more to talk about than the Wizards.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Mahalo, CCJ.

When you start your blog, let us know. I'll follow it. Although I reckon you have more to talk about than the Wizards.

Thanks.

I do, and that's where I am right now. So much is on my mind and in my heart.

Mr. Ed was a very wise horse who never spoke, unless he had something to say. I admire those who have mastered the economy of words ...

I must "reign in" ideas to include life beyond basketball. I need to talk about things relevant and or helpful to others more than just spout what I feel needs to be said, but I'll do a bit of that, too.

[gambitx777]

What would you guys think about this,
Take bennett with our first,
then if we can then some how swing a trade for a late first - mid first, then take Steven Adams.
with our seconds we take a scoring wing like James Ennis and a senior point guard of some kind?

[Dat2U]

I'm noticing the most skilled bigs in the draft are also the worst defenders by far. Bennett & McDermott and to a lesser extent Olynyk.

I don't really see either Bennett or McDermott really being passable defensively on the next level based on what we've seen thus far. McDermott may not have the physical tools to defend and Bennett doesn't appear to have the mental makeup to give a sh*t on that end of the court.

So the question is, are Bennett & McDermott skilled & talented enough to where their offensive production can outweigh their defensive shortcomings?

[Severn Hoos]

I see Cody Zeller has announced for the draft. Maybe after he and his friends get back from the North Pole, Santa will make him a Lottery pick...

[Ruzious]

LOL, even as a little kid, Zeller towered over the towns folk. Hopefully he has a similar expression after the Zards pick him - but bigger muscles.

[gesa2]

CCJ, I'm sure your blog would be interesting and wide ranging. I'd miss it though, if you stopped posting here as often. Testing out your basketball related thoughts here, and subjecting them to critique and analysis by all of the other informed posters, would make your blog posts much better IMO. Either way I'll read what you have to say in both places.

[stevemcqueen1]

So it looks like we're probably going to pick in the 8-10 range, barring some lottery luck. IMO, that means that for the most part, we're just going to have to take whoever falls to us, for better or worse.

We could trade up. I'd rather we trade up to make sure we get someone good like Porter or Bennett than trade down, stay put and have to settle, or trade for a second first rounder.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm noticing the most skilled bigs in the draft are also the worst defenders by far. Bennett & McDermott and to a lesser extent Olynyk.

I don't really see either Bennett or McDermott really being passable defensively on the next level based on what we've seen thus far. McDermott may not have the physical tools to defend and Bennett doesn't appear to have the mental makeup to give a sh*t on that end of the court.

So the question is, are Bennett & McDermott skilled & talented enough to where their offensive production can outweigh their defensive shortcomings?

I think they both are, but I prefer McDermott's energy level and mindset a bit more.

Bennett is stronger and will be able to physically hold his own on defense but his mindset reveals a bit about his character as a player. Anthony Bennett will be a physical beast scoring and like Boozer, he won't generally be a defensive liability when he tries because he's so physically strong. Bennett doesn't care to defend but he's been genetically blessed, Dat, and his defensive rating was not bad. He quit on some plays and appears to not understand where to be on defense a good bit of the time. Mindset, but he was just in his freshman season.

McDermott is going to have problems getting to the rim and keeping guys from the rim, as well as problems keeping guys in front of him on defense. Unlike Bennett, he's going to have to rely on his shooting until he figures out the nuances and tricks of NBA defense. Like Rip Hamilton, Doug McDermott's best defense is going to have to be his offense because he lacks the physical tools to be a robust defender. I think his shooting and intangibles are just that good, Dat, that his bad defense won't matter. That he's a coach's son makes me think he's going to figure some things out defensively. I also think McDermott is stronger than he looks and will train himself up quite a bit physically over a time.

http://college-basketball.si.com/2013/0 ... aft-stock/

NBA teams are figuring out the value of shooters upon their teammates. Former Magic Coach Stan Van Gundy’s success with Rashard Lewis at the power forward position around Dwight Howard has led to an increase in “stretch fours;” players like Ryan Anderson and Ersan Ilyasova are getting fat contracts due to their ability to stretch defenses, and limited players such as Matt Bonner and Steve Novak are the new sweethearts of stat geeks everywhere due to the high efficiency offenses show with four shooters on the court. This bodes well for Doug McDermott, a gifted collegiate scorer whose primary NBA-level talent is his quick release and deep range.

[sfam]

On another note, I'd like to briefly discuss our free agency plans this summer.

Assuming Okafor and Ariza exercise their options, and that we cut ties with Temple, here's what our roster will look like:

PG: Wall
SG: Beal
SF: Ariza
PF: Nene/Booker/Singleton/Vesely
C: Okafor/Seraphin

9 players for about $57 million ($1 million under the cap).

Then add in the 8th pick, which will cost about $2.4 million next season. Now we have 10 players and a total salary of $59.4 (slightly over the cap).

We'd have to fill out the rest of our roster with 2nd round picks, vet minimum players, and the MLE. We could theoretically split the MLE up amongst 2 players instead of giving 1 player the full $20 million/4 years.

Now, I want to talk about where to spend that MLE money, because I think that is going to be our key move this summer, other than the draft pick. A lot of us have kind of assumed that we'll use at least part of it to bring back Webster for 3-4 years at about $3-4 million per year. Now, don't get me wrong, I love Webster, and he's been a great addition to our team this season, and I'd love for him to stay on our squad for the foreseeable future. However, I think there may be a better alternative.

That alternative, ladies and gentlemen, is Jarrett Jack.

Jack is the combo guard we've been dreaming of. Say goodbye to the days of suffering through AJ Price destroying our hopes at winning games, and welcome the possible 6th man of the year, eating up the rest of the PG minutes when Wall is on the bench, and playing a decent amount at SG as well, Jarrett Jack. An above average player on both sides of the ball, and a player who has welcomed his roles over the course of his career. Jack is what we've desperately needed all season.

I think Jack is likely to sign for somewhere close to the MLE at $20 million/4 years. I also don't think the Warriors are going to be able to keep him because of luxury tax concerns. I think it's a great fit.

That becomes even more true if we end up drafting Porter or Muhammad (or perhaps Oladipo if we think he can play SF). At that point Webster becomes fairly expendable, even though he's still a quality player with a unique and valuable skill set, just because we'd have our top 10 pick and Ariza to take up all the minutes at the 3.

I'd gladly take a combination of Jack and Muhammad over something like Burke and Webster.

Thoughts?

Makes sense if you remove the emotion ties most of us have to Webster. He has been a bright spot this year. Its a valid option.

But we may be able to add a little more cap room by extending one or both of Trevor A and Okafor and cost averaging down. Maybe pick up a few more mil

I think that's a viable option, Rocky. It'll be interesting if they try something like that.

[nate33]

I wonder if some way-under-the-cap team in need of adding some salary to get to the minimum payroll requirement would be willing to take Vesely off of our hands for free. Maybe we throw in some cash to pay his salary. The idea here is to generate a Trade Exemption. We can then use it on somebody like Luke Ridnoir to address our backcourt depth, while saving the MLE to resign Webster.

Honestly, why don't we do a Vesley for Beasley trade where we get 2015 LAL 1st? Suns get out of Beasley's contract and the Wiz take a chance on Beasley?

Because that would eliminate any potential cap room in 2014. I'd gamble on Beasley if the only loss was Vesely, but in this case, the loss would be Vesely plus a heck of a lot of cap flexibility. That's too much of a price to pay for a guy that nobody in the league seems to want.

[nate33]

That becomes even more true if we end up drafting Porter or Muhammad (or perhaps Oladipo if we think he can play SF). At that point Webster becomes fairly expendable, even though he's still a quality player with a unique and valuable skill set, just because we'd have our top 10 pick and Ariza to take up all the minutes at the 3.

I'd gladly take a combination of Jack and Muhammad over something like Burke and Webster.

I'd much rather have Burke and Webster, personally.

But I agree with your general premise that if a SF is the BPA available when we pick, then signing Jack as a free agent would be more helpful than signing Webster. If, for example, Porter is on the board when we pick, take Porter, sign Jack, and be happy.

If we end up taking a big man with our draft pick, and we are faced with a choice of adding one MLE free agent and one minimum salary vet to fill our holes at SF and combo guard respectively, I'd go with Webster for the MLE and someone like Price for the vet minimum. I still think Webster's lights out shooting (and the fact that Ariza is likely to depart next year) outweighs the upgrade at backup PG.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm noticing the most skilled bigs in the draft are also the worst defenders by far. Bennett & McDermott and to a lesser extent Olynyk.

I don't really see either Bennett or McDermott really being passable defensively on the next level based on what we've seen thus far. McDermott may not have the physical tools to defend and Bennett doesn't appear to have the mental makeup to give a sh*t on that end of the court.

So the question is, are Bennett & McDermott skilled & talented enough to where their offensive production can outweigh their defensive shortcomings?

Bennett is not like Olynyk or McDermott on D. For starters, he can guard much smaller players out on the perimeter. He's also a shot blocker that can block 3 pointers. But mainly, he brings a physical presence those two don't even come close to matching. He's far more powerful and athletic than they are. He can clear out space on the floor. Bennett struggles playing low post man and help defense, mainly because he doesn't know how to rotate yet. It's an experience and knowledge issue. He can get a lot better.

Bennett is the most physically imposing player among the lotto picks and he will bring a physicality to the team he goes to that none of the other lotto picks will. That's valuable on both sides of the ball.

Also, Zeller is one of the most skillful players in the class and he's a pretty good defender.

And he's not a true big, but Porter has good offensive skills and plays great defense.

[stevemcqueen1]

That becomes even more true if we end up drafting Porter or Muhammad (or perhaps Oladipo if we think he can play SF). At that point Webster becomes fairly expendable, even though he's still a quality player with a unique and valuable skill set, just because we'd have our top 10 pick and Ariza to take up all the minutes at the 3.

I'd gladly take a combination of Jack and Muhammad over something like Burke and Webster.

I'd much rather have Burke and Webster, personally.

But I agree with your general premise that if a SF is the BPA available when we pick, then signing Jack as a free agent would be more helpful than signing Webster. If, for example, Porter is on the board when we pick, take Porter, sign Jack, and be happy.

If we end up taking a big man with our draft pick, and we are faced with a choice of adding one MLE free agent and one minimum salary vet to fill our holes at SF and combo guard respectively, I'd go with Webster for the MLE and someone like Price for the vet minimum. I still think Webster's lights out shooting (and the fact that Ariza is likely to depart next year) outweighs the upgrade at backup PG.

I'd rather have Burke and Webster too. Webster has some value beyond what he does on the court. And I don't trust Muhammad frankly.

Burke would be useful playing the role AJ Price plays. Wall and Price actually played well together last night, Burke would be a clear upgrade. Wall can guard 2s easily and Burke should be able to play off the ball, as skilled a shooter as he is. He could be a secondary ball handler for when Ds start keying on Wall just like Price was last night. He got a lot of easy perimeter drives that he pulled up for nice mid range shots.

Beal is also strong and athletic enough to play some SF in small lineups. That would be a very hard group of guards to defend. You could ensure two big time guards are on the floor at all times too.

If we can't trade up, and Burke is the BPA, we should just take him. We will probably have people interested in trading for him too.

[The Consiglieri]

".....After a strong freshman season, there was significant National Player of the Year hype surrounding him this past preseason. He didn’t achieve to that level, but still had a very solid campaign, and there is some nuance to why he didn’t achieve consistently to expectation.



With Victor Oladipo’s emergence as a scoring option to go with perimeter shooters like Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls, it significantly diminished the need for Zeller to show off his 15-to-17 foot jumper, simply because Indiana had much better options to take jump shots, and those were often for three points instead of two. Zeller was left having to play the 5 even though he’s much more clearly a 4....."

Don't know if anybody saw this last night for what Its worth, here's the link:

http://college-basketball.si.com/2013/0 ... &eref=sihp

[sfam]

".....After a strong freshman season, there was significant National Player of the Year hype surrounding him this past preseason. He didn’t achieve to that level, but still had a very solid campaign, and there is some nuance to why he didn’t achieve consistently to expectation.



With Victor Oladipo’s emergence as a scoring option to go with perimeter shooters like Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls, it significantly diminished the need for Zeller to show off his 15-to-17 foot jumper, simply because Indiana had much better options to take jump shots, and those were often for three points instead of two. Zeller was left having to play the 5 even though he’s much more clearly a 4....."

Don't know if anybody saw this last night for what Its worth, here's the link:

http://college-basketball.si.com/2013/0 ... &eref=sihp

I'm getting more comfortable with Zeller. He looks pretty skilled, and may be a good replacement for Nene.

[FAH1223]

I'm getting more comfortable with Zeller. He looks pretty skilled, and may be a good replacement for Nene.

Not with those alligator arms of his.

[Severn Hoos]

Michael Carter-Williams currently believes Ben McLemore of Kansas should be the No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft, and still, he is confident that he can elevate himself to the top selection.

Looks like someone's expecting the Wiz to win the Lottery....

[jivelikenice]

Length doesn't bother me as much depending on how we plan to use him. If Zeller shows he has the shooting touch and quickness to be a face up 4, I'd have no problem with the pick. I'm not looking at him as a back to the basket player (where his length would hurt him), nor should the Wizards.