To those frustrated with the start of the season.

Hendrix · Post #1 » by **Hendrix** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:54 am

I've noticed quite a few people upset with this team so far, so I figured I'd write this up.

Starting Pitching

Over the last 3 years these players have averaged

Dicky- 3.54 FIP- 205 innings per year
Jonhson- 2.87 FIP- 144 innings per year
Morrow- 3.48 FIP- 150 innings per year
Buehrle- 4.01 FIP- 205 innings per year
Happ- 4.35 FIP- 129 innings

So in totality they average a 3.65 FIP between them over the last 3 years.

There may be reason to think someone like Buerhle may regress a bit this year, and that players that are transitioning from the NL to the AL will see a bit of a change in FIP. However, Dicky and Buerhle have both routinely pitched to an ERA under their FIP, so that helps a bit here.

A 3.65 FIP would place them in 5th last year in the MLB. And, there are probably teams that pitched above their talent level to get into the top 5. This group of starters have done that on average. So, you don't need career years from this group to field a good starting unit. If they simply pitch to their average they are one of the best starting groups in baseball. Even if they falter they should still be a good starting group.

So far this year we are giving up 6.53 ERA from our starters and 5.46 FIP. So are they not pitching anywhere in the ballpark of what we should expect (by evidence by a much higher FIP than what they've averaged over 3 years), but they've been getting unlucky on top of that leading the league in BABIP at .343. This is not going to continue. Over the long run we probably project to have a BABIP around .290 from these guys.

Bullpen

I don't think there's any question that we have a great bullpen. We have high quality back end guys in Jansen, Oliver, and Santos. We have quality middle relief guys in Delebar, Cecil, and Loup. Not much to be worried about here.

Defense

The team is currently 24th in the league in UZR, and last in the league in errors. This is not a 24th defensive team, or a 30th team in errors. Once Lawrie comes back and Izuris sticks at 2nd we should be pretty solid. We are not going to continue to average an error a game from 2nd+3rd like we have so far, and we shouldn't see 3 pass ball games any more like we saw from JPA in the opener.

Batting

This team is currently 24th in offensive WAR, and 24th in babip. We are not a 24th team here. We have missed a total of 11 games so far from Bautista and Lawrie.

Our top 4 is sick, and one of the best in baseball.

The middle of our order should be great once Lawrie is back, and if we continue to platoon Lind.

The end of the order is above average too. Guys like Rasmus, and Arencibia have been swinging good bats. The only real kinda weak spot is Izuris, and he has a career .336 OBP, which is nice to have in the 9 hole with a high average hitter at #1, and #2 like Reyes, and Cabrera. It's going to turn around, and we are not a 24th team.

Summary

Things haven't changed since the start of the year. We are only 2 games out of a wild card spot with 153 games yet to be played. It isn't a big deal.

Once Lawrie comes back he should clean up a decent amount of holes in the field, and lineup. Our pitching staff is not going to continue posting 3 Earned runs over their FIP from the past 3 years. It's just not going to happen. It would have been nice to watch the team come out of the gate hot, and some games have been hard to watch, but this isn't a team that needs everything to go perfect to make the playoffs. We have one of the best rotations in baseball, one of the best pens in baseball, one of the best batting orders in baseball, and a decent defense when healthy. By the end of the season the cream should rises to the top.

J-Roc · Post #2 » by **J-Roc** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:10 am

Nice write up, but a lot of this was known coming into the season, so it doesn't explain losing now. It just explains we should turn off the tv until they start winning.

Post #3 » by **spykelee** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:21 am

Most important part of that write up to me, is that were only 2 games out of a playoff spot with 153 yet to be played. We only have to be as good as our competition, and nobody at this point is really firing on all cylinders. All is okay in the world.

Randle McMurphy · Post #4 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:43 am

J-Roc wrote:Nice write up, but a lot of this was known coming into the season, so it doesn't explain losing now. It just explains we should turn off the tv until they start winning.

J-Roc is on a roll with troll comments lacking in perspective. Don't stop him now.

Post #5 » by **Harry Palmer** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:46 am

Johnson's the only one I worry about. He's down. He was at 92ish in Toronto, but that was on the gun that seemed a few mph high for everyone.

He'll probably be ok, but he's the only one whose pitching so far has actually raised a question mark for me, in terms of what how it evens out. Of more immediate concern is the fact that our pen is logging heavy innings very early in the year. Hope we string out a few over the next week or so.

Post #6 » by **Schad** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:53 am

Harry Palmer wrote:Johnson's the only one I worry about. He's down. He was at 92ish in Toronto, but that was on the gun that seemed a few mph high for everyone.

Averaged 93 in Toronto on PitchFX, which is based on a series of cameras that track the ball, so it's quite accurate for speed.

Avenger · Post #7 » by **Avenger** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:53 am

saw this on twitter somewhere

Post #8 » by **Harry Palmer** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 1:56 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
Harry Palmer wrote:Johnson's the only one I worry about. He's down. He was at 92ish in Toronto, but that was on the gun that seemed a few mph high for everyone.

Averaged 93 in Toronto on PitchFX, which is based on a series of cameras that track the ball, so it's quite accurate for speed.

Really? Ok, I'll take your word for it. If not, the concern is he's always been a 'stuff' guy, imo.

J-Roc · Post #9 » by **J-Roc** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:26 am

Avenger wrote:saw this on twitter somewhere

Hmmm, so on average, after 9 games, their 0.333 record won't get up to 0.500?

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

Post #10 » by **J.Kim** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 am

Harry Palmer wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
Harry Palmer wrote:Johnson's the only one I worry about. He's down. He was at 92ish in Toronto, but that was on the gun that seemed a few mph high for everyone.

Averaged 93 in Toronto on PitchFX, which is based on a series of cameras that track the ball, so it's quite accurate for speed.

Really? Ok, I'll take your word for it. If not, the concern is he's always been a 'stuff' guy, imo.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?p ... position=P

There There · Post #11 » by **There There** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:29 am

Randle McMurphy wrote:
J-Roc wrote:Nice write up, but a lot of this was known coming into the season, so it doesn't explain losing now. It just explains we should turn off the tv until they start winning.

J-Roc is on a roll with troll comments lacking in perspective. Don't stop him now.

25,000+ posts which can be described the same way would indicate there's no concern of him stopping anytime soon.

Post #12 » by **Harry Palmer** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:41 am

J.Kim wrote:
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?p ... position=P

Cheers, J.Kim.

hyper316 · Post #13 » by **hyper316** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:52 am

too much stock put on Lawrie's return i think. if a team can't play well without 1 starting fielder, then we a got a problem.

frizzer1 · Post #14 » by **frizzer1** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:56 am

hyper316 wrote:too much stock put on Lawrie's return i think. if a team can't play well without 1 starting fielder, then we a got a problem.

Yes but because of carrying a Deroza instead of a capable back up infielder, Lawrie's absence affects both second and third base,so we have 2 awful defenders instead of one.

Post #15 » by **J.Kim** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:10 am

hyper316 wrote:too much stock put on Lawrie's return i think. if a team can't play well without 1 starting fielder, then we a got a problem.

Brett Lawrie's Career UZR: 9.4
Brett Lawrie's Career UZR/150: 8.0

Mark DeRosa's Career UZR at 3B: -13.2
Mark DeRosa's Career UZR/150 at 3B: -6.5

Maicer Izturis' Career UZR at 3B: 3.8
Maicer Izturis' Career UZR/150 at 3B: 2.9

Maicer Izturis' Career UZR at 2B: 12.2
Maicer Izturis' Career UZR/150 at 2B: 8.0

Emilio Bonifacio's Career UZR at 2B: -4.0
Emilio Bonifacio's Career UZR/150 at 2B: -9.5

Maicer at 3B and Boni at 2B would collectively put up around UZR/150 of -6.5.

Replace Maicer at 3B with Lawrie and Boni at 2B with Maicer then you're likely putting up 16.0

That's a 22.5 run swing and around 2-3 Wins.

And this is even before the likely offensive improvement that replacing Boni/DeRosa's at bats for Brett Lawrie would bring.

TorontoRaptures · Post #16 » by **TorontoRaptures** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:30 am

Cool stats J. Kim but you have to be cautious when using Ultimate Zone Ratings for a player like Lawrie because it doesn't take into account the shift (unless I'm thinking of the wrong stat). Last season I remember Lawrie being 2nd in the league in WAR because of that inflated UZR, when he wasn't even hitting well.

Still, Lawrie's return will help. The 2B/3B poor defense has been really costly this season. I like the optimism and logic in Hendrix's post.

Post #17 » by **J.Kim** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:48 am

TorontoRaptures wrote:Cool stats J. Kim but you have to be cautious when using Ultimate Zone Ratings for a player like Lawrie because it doesn't take into account the shift (unless I'm thinking of the wrong stat). Last season I remember Lawrie being 2nd in the league in WAR because of that inflated UZR, when he wasn't even hitting well.

Still, Lawrie's return will help. The 2B/3B poor defense has been really costly this season. I like the optimism and logic in Hendrix's post.

I think Lawrie's bWAR (rather than his fWAR) was that high mid-way through last year because of Baseball Reference's method of statistically measuring fielding...

Speaking of BR... Fun Fact, even if you went by their Defensive Runs Saved above Average, you're still looking at a 20+ run swing.

Brett Lawrie: 28 Rdrs/yr
Emilio Bonifacio: -5 Rdrs/yr @ 2B
Maicer Izturis: 1 Rdrs/yr @ 3B, 2Rdrs/yr @ 2B.

You gain 27 Rdrs/yr at 3B and 7 Rdrs/yr at 2B, and looking at around 34 Rdrs/yr total gained. Probably looking at around 3.5 Wins...

By all measures (subjective and objective) Brett Lawrie would be a huge upgrade over Maicer @ 3B while Maicer would be a huge upgrade over Boni @ 2B. Passes the eye test and the stats test...

Anatomize · Post #18 » by **Anatomize** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 4:29 am

Our pitchers are getting blasted at an abnormal rate.. I wonder what will happen once the weather heats up..

acemann · Post #19 » by **acemann** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 5:17 am

Avenger wrote:saw this on twitter somewhere

extrapolating from this: WE CAN STILL WIN 100 GAMES!!

flatjacket1 · Post #20 » by **flatjacket1** » Fri Apr 12, 2013 3:53 pm

J.Kim wrote:That's a 22.5 run swing and around 2-3 Wins.

And this is even before the likely offensive improvement that replacing Boni/DeRosa's at bats for Brett Lawrie would bring.

So to put that into perspective, that's a run every 7.2 games. So far we have lost like 1.3 runs defensively? Add 1.3 runs anywhere and we are still in a similar position.

And offensively Lawrie is an improvement, but over only a few games (especially games where we are receiving production from Derosa), it is only like another run per 5 or 6 games.

I am not at all frustrated all. Sure it's hard to watch but we have too much talent to lose this much. I hated the Dickey trade but it's too early to call it a loss. We still have time.