What to learn from busts

[sca]

Looking at the recent top 10 busts:
Jeff Green
Randy Foye

Players who may be 'busts' in the sense they haven't produced like all-stars but are still solid players.
Players who are absolute busts.

[black bart]

Pick players from calipari and UCLA. Especially UCLA. Avoid duke and syracuse

[fredericklove]

1. Avoid Tweeners, especially SF/PF. I dont think there has been one success story here.
2. Avoid project bigs
3. Avoid overaged upperclassmen

You cant account for everything, but you would do well drafting just by avoiding those 3.

1. PJ3
2. Andre Drummond
3. Lillard

[Nuntius]

Don't listen to rumors, it helps to actually watch the guy play, to actually watch European games from time to time. It didn't take a genius to realize Ginobili would thrive in the NBA. Nor did it take a genius to realize Milicic would be a bust. You just had to watch them.

Words cannot describe how true this is.

May I bring some other examples?

Nikola Pekovic: He was dominant in Europe. He could bully everyone in the post. Everyone who watched him knew that he was built like a tank. However, he went to the second round due to his contract. But it was a risk worth taking.

Sarunas Jasikevicius: He was and still is an amazing offensive talent. His shooting ability and court vision are Nash-lite. But his defense was always a red flag. And his athleticism was always below par (even for Europe). He was a risk. Not a bust though since he went undrafted. But a high risk / high reward player that didn't pan out.

And may I make two predictions?

Jonas Valanciunas: He can easily be a Nikola Pekovic or a Joakim Noah with better offense (but worse defense). He does have an impact in Europe and he is not just an athletic marvel. He is actually skilled.

Donatas Motiejunas: I see him as a taller Danilo Gallinari. He has skills but he has several red flags. However, he was taken at the 20th pick so the Rockets will get great value out of this pick.

[melonheadboy]

Lessons to be learned:
*Be wary of drafting on athleticism alone.( you cant coach them all into becoming players)
Tyrus Thomas
*Do not draft college wing scorers who have a serious lack of quickness.(they usually cant
get their own shot and wont be able to guard anyone)
Morrison
*Project bigs are just that, PROJECTS......(7 foot tall is nice, but can you tie your shoes and
chew gum at the same time?)
Patrick O'Bryant
That said: Jeff Green and OJ Mayo are not busts. Brandon Wright is injury prone but he has skills and
could become a low level starter, at worst a rotation big.

[Superiorblogman]

49 days to the draft and the biggest thing I think is you have to compare guys on a equal playing field.You can't compare a seniors numbers to a freshman's numbers. You basically have to go back to that senior's freshman year and see where he was at compared to that freshman. For instance, Drummond was totally superior to Meyers Leonard when both were freshman. You have to project Drummond ahead with another year of seasoning. It should be hard to pass up on guys who have superior production on the court to there competitors at the same stage coupled with athletic measurements that are good for there positions.

[Dr Positivity]

Off the top of my head Roy, Hibbert and Horford are good examples of players who ended up much better than their freshman PERs...

The thing about junior/seniors is that 90% of the time lotto talents look like it as freshman/sophmores, then they declare and get drafted. I agree junior/senior drafting is a risk but that's because it includes a lot of players who didn't seem talented enough to get drafted lotto their first few years... and that, not the lack of production early, is what teams should crap their pants about IMO. A guy like Roy is such an exception because IMO he's one of the 10 most talented prospects of the 2000s and somehow was a 12.6 PER freshman and 17.9 PER sophmore. That's a pretty blue moon-y type of situation in terms of talent not showing up in a player's first 2 years.

I would personally just bring it back to talent level as the most important thing. The face of a bust to me is a SG/SF or PF/C who lacks finesse offense but plays defense hard and rebounds. The Corey Brewer and Jordan Hill types.

OTOH talent is also misjudged at times IMO. How many years did OJ Mayo get treated like he had star talent. Michael Beasley, Marvin Williams, Darko Milicic basically held onto their talent label for years when IMO it was clear they just were vastly overrated in that department. I think Barnes and Drummond's talent level is being way overblown, Barnes because he was famous in high school, and Drummond because of the association between talent and physical tools, when it can be argued he has 0 offensive talent in the way of skills and instincts and may even be a less talented player than Jared Sullinger

I made a thread asking for the top 10 talents in the draft a few months ago and nobody had Thomas Robinson in their top 5 and many had him as like fringe top 10. That's the kind of thing that would freak me out if he goes top 3. I would say taking the 10th most talented player in the draft 3rd should be a red flag. Especially if like Robinson he's a junior with a power/strength advantage reliant game

Also I would say teams picking late in the draft should just go with talent. I'm almost positive there's teams who would've listed Deandre Jordan as a top 10-15 talent in his draft if you asked them, while passing on him in the 20s and early 30s. That's insane. I mean Joey Dorsey went ahead of Deandre. Dorsey is basically Deandre if he was 6'6 and not as athletic. lol

[Jazzfan12]

Lottery busts from 2011 and 2012:

Vesely
Biyombo
Rivers
Kendall Marshall
Markieff Morris

Debatable:

Probably Thomas Robinson: Legendarily inefficient rookie year
Derrick Williams is still underperforming but he's shown some life
Calling Brandon Knight a bust is kind of harsh but he hasn't been good
Terrence Ross probably deserves more time even if they are huge warning signs around him
Jimmer: Decent numbers, not really able to find time on a bad team though


Anything to take away from these guys or is it too early?

Jeff Green also looks like he may break away from being a bust though I would like to see him post an above-average PER before I declare that.

[qianlong]

Biyombo is not a bust yet. He was picked as a long term project. Everybody knew he was very raw and would take some years to develop. I think you will have to wait for the fourth year to give him a more definitive label.

[Marvin Martian]

3/4 tweeners are red flags. They are far too risky to be taken in the lotto because they have a lot of trouble replicating their success at the next level.

[BaunceyChillups]

never pick anyome from kansas or syracuse

[noobcake]

Lottery busts from 2011 and 2012:

Vesely
Biyombo
Rivers
Kendall Marshall
Markieff Morris

Debatable:

Probably Thomas Robinson: Legendarily inefficient rookie year
Derrick Williams is still underperforming but he's shown some life
Calling Brandon Knight a bust is kind of harsh but he hasn't been good
Terrence Ross probably deserves more time even if they are huge warning signs around him
Jimmer: Decent numbers, not really able to find time on a bad team though


Anything to take away from these guys or is it too early?

Jeff Green also looks like he may break away from being a bust though I would like to see him post an above-average PER before I declare that.

Rivers is not a bust yet. He has shown elite first step, driving and basketball IQ. He doesn't actually suck at basketball; he just sucks at shooting. We'll see if it was just an rookie thing.

Biggest busts are usually players with physical problems, no position in the NBA aka tweeners or combo guards (Williams, Rivers), or lack of athleticism (Marshall, Jimmer) or low skill high potential kind (Vesly, Biyombo)

[Marvin Martian]

never pick anyone from kansas or syracuse

This too lol

[cdubbz]

Harrison Barnes = Bust of the Draft

He has huge bust potential written all over him.

Touted as possibly the greatest freshmen of all time.
Has not shown improvement from Freshmen to Sophomore year despite his amazing work ethic. Skill cap not very high.
Shot too broke for an NBA SG. His FT shooting is a great predictor of future (lack of) shooting success.
Can't even dominate other SF athletically on the collegiate level. Can be lax defensively and get lost in the game.
Tendency to shot jack but has not shown the ability to distribute the ball.
Biggest problem: Tweener SG/SF with no shooting ability. Too slow to defend SG; not physical enough for SF position. Will get abused by big NBA SF like Deng, Iggy, Melo, James.

The team that drafts Barnes within top 10 will be making a huge mistake. There is absolutely 0 reason to take him if MKG/Jones is not yet taken.

I would take him at 8 and feel pretty good about it, won't ever live up to a 2nd or 3rd pick where he is targeted to go.

8 is indeed a good spot. Top 5 for Barnes is just wrong. If you want a shooting guard, get Lamb or Beal. If you want a SF, get MKG or Jones.

There is 0 reason for any team to take him over the 4 PF/C in front of him + MKG.
Davis
Robinson
Drummond
Jullinger
MKG

Jeez...these posts just prove that realgmers too are terrible talent evaluators. Barnes got ripped a ton and he's having a great rookie season with the Warriors.

[Dr Positivity]

Lottery busts from 2011 and 2012:

Vesely
Biyombo
Rivers
Kendall Marshall
Markieff Morris

Debatable:

Probably Thomas Robinson: Legendarily inefficient rookie year
Derrick Williams is still underperforming but he's shown some life
Calling Brandon Knight a bust is kind of harsh but he hasn't been good
Terrence Ross probably deserves more time even if they are huge warning signs around him
Jimmer: Decent numbers, not really able to find time on a bad team though


Anything to take away from these guys or is it too early?

Jeff Green also looks like he may break away from being a bust though I would like to see him post an above-average PER before I declare that.

I think it's too early to write all of them off except Vesely. (I'll even give Rivers the benefit of the doubt, though I think he was a 2nd round talent all along). Vesely got projected as a SF made his entire pre draft evaluation bunk. Lesson learned, players need a high skill level to play SF, even before getting to how he's not even fast enough to play the position. Vesely is an example of a player that got ranked top 10 all year by "trusted' sources and nobody had been able to watch him enough to sniff the BS out, with the exception of Wizards board posters. The main lesson with Vesely and Rivers if he busts is don't trust the NBA's groupthink consensus opinion and name/hype slut Chad Ford, they can be tricked by silly things.

With Robinson, Biyombo if we can concede the picks aren't looking good, + why Vesely is bad at PF/C, it's the usual story - Mistakes happen when teams assume big men in the NBA are playing checkers instead of chess and that succeeding at the position is about your measurements and athleticism instead of basketball playing ability. Yes on that note, Drummond has succeeded as the 'raw' athletic big man... but the reason Drummond was misevaluated, by myself included, is his basketball playing ability got understated. Having elite touch around the basket is a hugely important skill, plus Drummond has a surprisingly smooth and controlled IQ. Same with Larry Sanders... his success is as much about instincts as it is his physical talents

[gaspar]

Lottery busts from 2011 and 2012:

Vesely
Biyombo
Rivers
Kendall Marshall
Markieff Morris

Debatable:

Probably Thomas Robinson: Legendarily inefficient rookie year
Derrick Williams is still underperforming but he's shown some life
Calling Brandon Knight a bust is kind of harsh but he hasn't been good
Terrence Ross probably deserves more time even if they are huge warning signs around him
Jimmer: Decent numbers, not really able to find time on a bad team though


Anything to take away from these guys or is it too early?

Jeff Green also looks like he may break away from being a bust though I would like to see him post an above-average PER before I declare that.

It's too early to judge who is and who is not a bust from 2011 and 2012 drafts.

[hillbilly hare]

Looking at the recent top 10 busts:

Wes Johnson
Al-Farouq Aminu
Haseem Thabeet
Jonny Flynn
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Joe Alexander
Greg Oden (would have been awesome without injuries )
Jeff Green
Yi
Corey Brewer
Brandan Wright
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Randy Foye
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene


What changes in draft philosophy should GMs make after the failure of these guys to become starters or even NBA players? Busts will always happen, but do you think certain things in the drafting process needs to change for GMs to dodge some of these busts?

I'd put Andrea ahead of OJ Mayo as a "bust", but in reality neither guy is a bust at all, unless you're considering who was drafted after them.

As others have said, it's not fair to put Oden in there.

A couple of guys take Bustness to a whole different level though: Thabeet and Morrison are the cream of the crop.

[Jazzfan12]

OJ Mayo might not go in the top 20 of a 2008 redraft, I would call that a major bust.

Not sure how I forgot Bargnani on this list.

[hillbilly hare]

OJ Mayo might not go in the top 20 of a 2008 redraft, I would call that a major bust.

Not sure how I forgot Bargnani on this list.

No Andrea probably means you were bellying up the Colangelo Kool Aid bar

A 2008 draft redo, I'd trade down and draft OJ a lot faster than I'd pick our Italian Scallion in the lottery.

[machu46]

It's interesting looking back at what teams loved about these prospects when they were taken. A lot of it has to do with falling into a bad situation IMO. Example (just because I'm a Cuse fan so I know more about them): trying to put Flynn in a triangle offense; trying to make Wes Johnson play SG in the pros. He in particular would have thrived on a team like Milwaukee where he could just catch and shoot off of Jennings and Ellis and get out and run the fast break with them.