2013 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[InfraRedshaw]

Hey Jeff,

Given the titan's rumbling of releasing Nate Washington, do you think that increases the possibility of a first round receiver, (Tavon at 10, if possible) also what do you make of the Nate Washington rumors? Is it as is imminent as it sounds? I've heard it had to do with a perceived "quitting on the team down the stretch" any thoughts?

[Icness]

Hey Jeff,

Given the titan's rumbling of releasing Nate Washington, do you think that increases the possibility of a first round receiver, (Tavon at 10, if possible) also what do you make of the Nate Washington rumors? Is it as is imminent as it sounds? I've heard it had to do with a perceived "quitting on the team down the stretch" any thoughts?

I like the idea of Austin to TEN but I really doubt they do it. There is a serious need to get younger and better at corner and pass rusher (more getting better). Washington wants out, no doubt about it. Sounds like he will get his way. He is not copacetic with Munch and they have so many candidates already in house. Kendall Wright, Damian Williams, Kevin Walter, Roberto Wallace, Lavelle Hawkins, Mike Preston. I'm not big that any of those guys can replace him but with that many guys already there it's hard to see TEN spending highly on a WR...unless the plan is to replace Britt sooner than later.

[BearTooth]

I have rather unpopular stances on Hunter and Wheaton...I am a distinct minority on Wheaton, who most draftniks seem to love. I get why. He's got excellent feet and hands, he is smart, and he can get open vertically. My concerns are that he is physically weak. He has very skinny legs and a small frame, brings up durability issues a la Amendola or Laurent Robinson. I would take a chance on Wheaton before Hunter and I wouldn't kill a team for taking him in the 40s because he could wind up being a good one. But my player comp is Taylor Price.

He does have skinny legs, but this is one tough little bastard who is very physical for his size. 5-11, 190. You don't often see players of that size box out and go up for contested balls as well as he does. And then he puts up 20 reps at the combine and you realize this is no frail little receiver. That's more than Percy Harvin put up, and the same as Chris Harper, who outweighs him by 40 lbs. But what I love most about him is his intensity. It's not hard to tell this kid loves football and he loves to compete. That suggests to me that he probably won't bust, and within a year or so, he'll be 5-11, 200 and quickly on his way to becoming Greg Jennings Jr.

Hey, I discovered your forum last year when you had a few conversations with an NFL scout. Love that stuff. Anything like that coming up?

[Roger Murdock]

The Aaron Maybin Jarvis Jones comparison makes no sense to me. Jarvis Jones was one of the best defensive players in the country back to back years in the toughest conference. Maybin had one lucky year in a pretty weak conference. Jarvis Jones got by with incredible instinct and knack for play making. Maybin got by on speed.

I find it odd you consider a WR too small and an injury risk, boarderline top 50 guy, yet hype Tavon Austin as a top 10 pick when Austin is much smaller.

[Icness]

I have rather unpopular stances on Hunter and Wheaton...I am a distinct minority on Wheaton, who most draftniks seem to love. I get why. He's got excellent feet and hands, he is smart, and he can get open vertically. My concerns are that he is physically weak. He has very skinny legs and a small frame, brings up durability issues a la Amendola or Laurent Robinson. I would take a chance on Wheaton before Hunter and I wouldn't kill a team for taking him in the 40s because he could wind up being a good one. But my player comp is Taylor Price.

He does have skinny legs, but this is one tough little bastard who is very physical for his size. 5-11, 190. You don't often see players of that size box out and go up for contested balls as well as he does. And then he puts up 20 reps at the combine and you realize this is no frail little receiver. That's more than Percy Harvin put up, and the same as Chris Harper, who outweighs him by 40 lbs. But what I love most about him is his intensity. It's not hard to tell this kid loves football and he loves to compete. That suggests to me that he probably won't bust, and within a year or so, he'll be 5-11, 200 and quickly on his way to becoming Greg Jennings Jr.

Hey, I discovered your forum last year when you had a few conversations with an NFL scout. Love that stuff. Anything like that coming up?

On your last question:
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2013/0 ... h-a-scout/
Pretty focused on the Texas/Louisiana area but there's a lot of prospects here

On Wheaton:
I get why people like him. I really do. I just don't see him making it big. He's going in the top 50 picks.

[Icness]

The Aaron Maybin Jarvis Jones comparison makes no sense to me. Jarvis Jones was one of the best defensive players in the country back to back years in the toughest conference. Maybin had one lucky year in a pretty weak conference. Jarvis Jones got by with incredible instinct and knack for play making. Maybin got by on speed.

I find it odd you consider a WR too small and an injury risk, boarderline top 50 guy, yet hype Tavon Austin as a top 10 pick when Austin is much smaller.

Jones also played on a defense with 10 NFL players, 9 of whom will be drafted this year (him, Ogletree, Rambo, S. Williams, Washington, Commings, J. Jenkins, A. Jones, K. Geathers). That context is important because it meant he very seldom got anything but isolated blocking and had no chore other than rushing the backfield. In the NFL he is going to have to shed a block every once in a while, something he absolutely cannot do. OLBs that lack quick-twitch and explosive athleticism seldom do well, and he's far below the athletic metrics of any OLB that has ever been successful. People want to compare him to Terrell Suggs' Combine numbers. The 40 time was 4.84, which he did at a full 18 pounds heavier than Jones. His 10-yard split time was a full tenth better than Jones, and his broad jump was over a foot longer. Plus Suggs played with his hand down and still does; Jones has never done that.

I have not been surer of a bust since Jerry Hughes or Taylor Mays.

For Austin being small--that's def. a big concern. What helps is that he is so incredibly quick that nobody ever gets a clean hit on him. I'll say it again: he is the quickest player in tight spaces that I've ever seen in any sport, not just football. Game changing ability from the slot or as a 3rd down back, plus return skills.

[PurpleJesus]

How far should we expect Keenan Allen to fall with his disappointing 40 time? Is it possible the Vikings could snag him in the 2nd round instead of using one of their 1st's on him?

[Icness]

How far should we expect Keenan Allen to fall with his disappointing 40 time? Is it possible the Vikings could snag him in the 2nd round instead of using one of their 1st's on him?

Speed is not his calling card but he did not help himself with the strange times. One was 4.5, the other 4.75 and I've heard from someone who was there that he looked stiffer in drills than he remembered him.

I still think he's a top 40 pick, probably in the 25-35 range. I worry about that knee though. PCLs have a nasty way of lingering and impacting stability. He probably would have been better off tearing it and getting surgery instead of just loosening it. The rehab has taken a lot longer than expected. Today was the first time he's actually done any public workout without tweaking it and pulling out.

[gswhoops]

How far should we expect Keenan Allen to fall with his disappointing 40 time? Is it possible the Vikings could snag him in the 2nd round instead of using one of their 1st's on him?

Speed is not his calling card but he did not help himself with the strange times. One was 4.5, the other 4.75 and I've heard from someone who was there that he looked stiffer in drills than he remembered him.

I still think he's a top 40 pick, probably in the 25-35 range. I worry about that knee though. PCLs have a nasty way of lingering and impacting stability. He probably would have been better off tearing it and getting surgery instead of just loosening it. The rehab has taken a lot longer than expected. Today was the first time he's actually done any public workout without tweaking it and pulling out.

If Allen is still on the board at 31, do you think the Niners would consider taking him? I really like him as a prospect and he would make sense for us, but I have a hard time seeing us go WR in the first round two years in a row.

As a semi-aside, do you have any idea whether NFL front offices actually think like that (i.e. "we took a WR in the 1st last year so we shouldn't this year")? Do they buy into that kind of logic or do they not take past draft picks into account?

[DSand]

Last year, Bruce Irvin was the surprise pick of the first round. Do you see anyone in this year's draft that might be a surprise early to mid first round pick?

[Icness]

Last year, Bruce Irvin was the surprise pick of the first round. Do you see anyone in this year's draft that might be a surprise early to mid first round pick?

EJ Manuel, Margus Hunt, Menelik Watson are all likely 1st rounders. Darius Slay could sneak in. I don't think Devin Taylor will make it to the first but I bet he's a top 50 pick.

[Icness]

If Allen is still on the board at 31, do you think the Niners would consider taking him? I really like him as a prospect and he would make sense for us, but I have a hard time seeing us go WR in the first round two years in a row.

As a semi-aside, do you have any idea whether NFL front offices actually think like that (i.e. "we took a WR in the 1st last year so we shouldn't this year")? Do they buy into that kind of logic or do they not take past draft picks into account?

Great question, will appear in next week's mailbag segment!
I think they have to consider Allen but I think their defensive needs take priority. To tie that with the second question, had they not taken Jenkins last year I think picking Allen there would be a lot more likely. Some teams care a lot more than others about what they did in the last draft or two, but most teams generally don't; if the talent is staring them in the face they don't hesitate to take the player even if it's doubling up. But if the talent tier is equal, they'll turn to another position. I think most fans would be surprised at the lengths to which teams use tiering rather than straight ordination of prospects. I know Baalke is someone who does that, just like Dimitroff, Thompson, Colbert, Emery. Some tiers might have two players and others have 22.

[Harry Palmer]

Last year, Bruce Irvin was the surprise pick of the first round. Do you see anyone in this year's draft that might be a surprise early to mid first round pick?

EJ Manuel, Margus Hunt, Menelik Watson are all likely 1st rounders. Darius Slay could sneak in. I don't think Devin Taylor will make it to the first but I bet he's a top 50 pick.

Yeah, was going to ask you if Manuel has the potential to shoot up as the draft day approaches.

A combination of complete check-list on measurables, enough 'could have been coach/system' stuff to explain some areas where he didn't impress, apparently a really likable, smart kid, and the new wave of qb'ing that some will want to at least have in their toolbox...I can see it happening.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Seeing a lot of 'chatter' on the twitter and what not about C Patterson WR falling out of the first round. What is your opinion of Patterson & where does his value lie. What teams would be a good fit? Would Chicago be crazy to consider him at 20?

[Icness]

Seeing a lot of 'chatter' on the twitter and what not about C Patterson WR falling out of the first round. What is your opinion of Patterson & where does his value lie. What teams would be a good fit? Would Chicago be crazy to consider him at 20?

The knocks:
-one year of big boy football in college
-has some prominent dropped passes
-by several credible reports he did not interview well or seem like he cared
-lacks football IQ and was not a good student, which really limits his ability to learn

I absolutely believe all of those. I also believe he has a natural elusiveness and determination with the ball in his hands that very few people at his size ever have. He plays like Steve Smith of the Panthers except he's 6'2" and 216 pounds. His top-end potential is a faster Demaryius Thomas. The problem is how close will he ever get to being that guy? At 75% of that he's a short Limas Sweed. At 90% of that he's Alshon Jeffery with better agility.

I did a mock over the weekend where I dropped him into the 50's but that seems artificially low. Maybe he sticks in the 20-30 range, more likely he goes in the 30-40 range. Minnesota makes some sense with one of their picks, maybe Cincinnati at 21. Houston is not interested from what I gather, nor is Denver. Chicago is too high and WR is a terrible value for them where they pick. They can get their choice of impact defensive players and they don't currently have one of those under the age of 30.

[Harry Palmer]

Jeff-

Rumblings that the 9ers are looking to move up for Austin.

*are you hearing anything?
*what do you feel the move would involve?
*how do you like the fit?

[Icness]

Jeff-

Rumblings that the 9ers are looking to move up for Austin.

*are you hearing anything?
*what do you feel the move would involve?
*how do you like the fit?

I've heard them, the rumors happen to involve a team I am commonly associated with , among other trade partners

To ensure getting Austin they would have to move to #5 because Cleveland could take him. The Browns are unlikely to do that, but the Jets at 9 are a definite landing spot, as is TEN at 10. To move from 31 to 8, that costs a lot. As the Bills at 8 I would ask for 31, 34, 93, & 157, but give SF the option of paying the 3rd or later next year. At 5 the Lions would ask for 31 & 34 plus next year's 1st.

IMO it's not the best place for Austin to land. What makes him so valuable is that he can play in the slot or out of the backfield. But the Niners already have Lamichael James to do the backfield stuff, and Vernon Davis is better as a receiver out of the slot. Austin definitely brings some vitality and dynamic potential to the offense as a creator and YAC guy, but I'm not sure if he doesn't take away some from what makes Kaepernick so effective and what other guys do well. I'm confident Harbaugh would find a way to make it work though. I just like Austin better where he's not as pigeonholed.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Jeff - I've seen a few reports saying that there are injury concerns around Arthur Brown and that his stock may be dropping because of them. I know a shoulder injury kept Brown out of the Senior Bowl, but he still played every game the last two seasons at Kansas.

Is this just more smoke being blown - or is the shoulder a long term concern?

[kdawg32086]

Some comments from the Ravens pre-draft press conference:
-Joe Horitz says the WR class is very deep in the middle rounds (hinting at a potential pick there?)
-Ozzie Newsome says there's a safety in every round of the draft that the Ravens could end up drafting
-John Harbaugh says he feels good about Manti Te'o as a player and a leader, and that he had a great interview with the Ravens

Jeff, how much of this is a smokescreen or them just rambling to keep the press happy?

[Icness]

Jeff - I've seen a few reports saying that there are injury concerns around Arthur Brown and that his stock may be dropping because of them. I know a shoulder injury kept Brown out of the Senior Bowl, but he still played every game the last two seasons at Kansas.

Is this just more smoke being blown - or is the shoulder a long term concern?

Teams are concerned, probably more than they want to be or should be. Everyone has this rap on him that he's small, but he's bigger than Lavonte David or Jon Beason. Probably keeps him out of the top 20 but I have to think Chicago or Minnesota snap him up. Easily the best ILB in this draft, but he can play 4-3 OLB too.