The Lebron Thread (Pt. 2)

[SideshowBob]

http://bkref.com/tiny/32cZy

http://bkref.com/tiny/72S19

[toodles23]

Is there an argument to be made that Lebron is as good, or even a better scorer than Durant at this point? The fact that Lebron's top 5 in efficiency both inside and outside 10 feet is unreal, and Durant's early season efficiency advantage has been almost entirely negated at this point (Durant's just 6 tenths of a percent ahead of Lebron in TS% right now), and once you adjust for pace and minutes, Durant doesn't even score at a higher rate than Lebron. That's also not considering the bizarrely unfriendly whistle Lebron's gotten this season.

Also, Lebron scored very inefficiently (for his standards) through November at just 59 TS%, largely because he couldn't hit a damn FT. Removing November (and the October game) brings Lebron up to 65.1 TS%.

[SideshowBob]

Remember, that's controlled for %AST < 50%. When we remove that constraint, Lebron falls WELL out of the top five for outside efficiency, but is still #1 for inside.

But yeah, I don't see why he doesn't have a strong case, and I think Durant's phenomenal.

Despite his physical struggles last season, I wasn't even sure Durant was better then. James put up 30.8 points on 58.1% TS through the Eastern Conference Playoffs against an average defense of -4.0. Durant put up 27.8 points on 62.6% TS in the Western Conference Playoffs against an average defense of -1.2. James has a significant volume advantage, Durant a significant efficiency edge. James did this largely with no jumpshot against a much stronger average level of defense. To say that Lebron was better is disingenuous, but I think its reasonable to say that they were both on the same plane as scorers.

All that said, I'd take 2010 James scoring wise over both of them last season, rather easily. It's clear that they've both made significant progression this season though.

[colts18]

Interesting that LeBron is at his career low this year in FGA/game. His 3 lowest MPG seasons were his 3 best year (09,12, 13).

[SideshowBob]

Lebron was 16/16 before that technical FT miss.

[toodles23]

Lebron was 16/16 before that technical FT miss. :lol"

Yeah, I don't actually have the numbers, but it feels like he sucks at technicals. I don't get why Bosh isn't the one to shoot them when Allen isn't on the floor.

Weird that Lebron took that jumper when he was 7-7, I thought he was going to try for a perfect game. Hopefully missing a shot will make him a little more aggressive.

[SideshowBob]

Lebron was 16/16 before that technical FT miss. :lol"

Yeah, I don't actually have the numbers, but it feels like he sucks at technicals. I don't get why Bosh isn't the one to shoot them when Allen isn't on the floor.

Weird that Lebron took that jumper when he was 7-7, I thought he was going to try for a perfect game. Hopefully missing a shot will make him a little more aggressive.

There was a post on APBRmetrics a few months back that kept track of season wide technical free throws. Lebron was something like 3/11 at the time.

[toodles23]

Lebron sucked in the 2nd half. After the 7-7 FG, 5-5 FT start, he went 0-5 from the field and 4-7 from the line.

[SideshowBob]

Yeah, he largely checked out after the first quarter. Pretty mediocre game overall.

[Rerisen]

^ Odd how LeBron is treated like the laziest player in the NBA here. Every average or underperforming game by him is because he 'checked out' or 'didn't care' or 'not trying'. Only his plus games over average are considered the 'real' LeBron here. I mean there is a thing called defense, but the assumption here is that if LeBron just tried his hardest every game then what he would average 30/10/10?

Come on that is in itself lazy analysis and smacks a bit of hero worship. The guy carries a big load every night, handling scoring and distributing duties, and it doesn't always produce monster games. This is normal variation.

[SideshowBob]

Come on that is in itself lazy analysis and smacks a bit of hero worship.

Well, it's a Lebron thread full of Lebron fans, so I'm not really going to deny that.

^ Odd how LeBron is treated like the laziest player in the NBA here. Every average or underperforming game by him is because he 'checked out' or 'didn't care' or 'not trying'. Only his plus games over average are considered the 'real' LeBron here. I mean there is a thing called defense, but the assumption here is that if LeBron just tried his hardest every game then what he would average 30/10/10?

I won't speak for anyone else, but I'm not really judging him based on what does or does not show up on the box-score. He's had games on the magnitude of 30/10/10 where I've thought he's looked like crap, and he's had games in which he's put up stuff like 13/6/7 with turnovers galore in which I've thought he's looked awesome.

Lazy analysis could just as well be me saying Lebron clearly tore up the Bulls this season, put up 28/8/5 on 73% TS in 4 games against them. That'd be wrong though, because I don't really believe he tore you guys up at all. Outside of the February game in Chicago, I don't think he's played all that well, and I see that I did indeed sound like I wasn't giving the defense enough credit. They've certainly done an excellent job on him. It doesn't show up in the numbers but they've done a great job in limiting his strengths.

That said, some of the things I saw from him today were also clear signs of checking out. There was a FT where he did his typical dribble routine, then started talking to another player on the side and he didn't look back at the hoop until the release, resulting in a clear brick. That's the kind of stuff I'm talking about, he just turned down the focus level. He also missed a couple finishes in the second half that weren't really all that contested (or not anymore than they were in the first half), and did settle for jumpshots a couple times where there was room for better plays to be made. Credit the Bulls defense in limiting his aggression (9.2 TS attempts in the first half, 8.1 in the second, though he played fewer minutes), but that wasn't all that was in play here.

[Rerisen]

A player is playing to win the game not to dominate statistically. I peruse this thread occasionally and every time LeBron plays not up to par, even for weeks at a time, that seems to be what it is labeled as, him not caring or trying somehow. I don't buy it. LeBron cares a lot, and more than that, has the ball the whole game every game. So lesser games should be credited to the real LeBron same as great ones.

I would get this idea of, excess capacity, I guess we'll call it, more if it were made about say Shaq when he was playing. Since his touches were actually dependent on his team, and his manner of dominating was so physically intensive (bullying under the rim) to truly be his most efficient. But less about a guy running the show every game.

Anyhow just an observation, if you go back and read through the thread, you will see there is a lot of that kind of, what reads as, excuse making.

Sidenote on Chicago, I think LeBron traditionally plays very well vs Chicago yes. It's often in the face of pretty good defense too. Especially he seems to shoot well, despite that Chicago wants and often gets him to do that. Maybe he likes the rims / background in the UC who knows. Sometimes players have habits of being stronger or weaker vs certain teams. Now Wade, Chicago usually has his number more.

[JordansBulls]

I don't see him playing in the next 2 games, but I could be wrong. Seems like his PER will still be about 31.6 or so, not sure exactly. Also his WS/PER 48 will still be around .320 or so, not sure exactly either on that.

[Mutnt]

What exactly are you trying to prove here? There's no real or fake LeBron, there's only LeBron. For those who watch him every game, we know when he's fully aggressive and we know when he coasts. It's evident. Nobody is making any excuses because he didn't put up 35/8/8 or something, as in that should be the standard, anything lower is a bad game for him. The guys were just pointing out that he didn't looked fully engaged and focused in the 2nd half and played a poorly for any standard (not that he needed to really take over or anything...), which was true. Still, he played well overall, was the best player of the game again, and helped his team enough to get the win. I think nobody is denying that...

On another note, we're talking about a player who's arguably having the best regular season performance of all-time (certainly one of them)... When you are that good, your bar is going to be high, your expectations are going to be high, your margin of error is going to be slim. There's nothing wrong in expecting him to dominate every game, I think. Not that we all believe he's going to, but as big LeBron fans, we know when the guy is playing up to his capacity and when the guy is just cruising along.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

I think its disingenuous to enter a thread and accuse everyone else of a bias, when your only post occurs just after LeBron plays against your favorite team... jmo.

I understand you feel as if people aren't crediting the Chicago defense enough, but this is a thread about the player, and people are going to obviously pay more attention to what the player does rather than what the opponent does against him.

And I think the hero worship is somewhat kept in check here as well, as you'll see guys be critical of him even in games where he produces well statistically.

I don't think the notion is "Oh, LeBron should have gone 12/12 today, the 2nd half was a fluke". Rather, the first half was excellent, the 2nd half wasn't (which is obvious based on the 0/5 from the field), but overall it was a good game... I can't see how that isn't a fair analysis?

[colts18]

What is LeBron's updated PER?

[SideshowBob]

What is LeBron's updated PER?

Haven't actually done the calculation yet, but it should go down from 31.67 to like 31.65.

@JB: WS/48 hasn't shifted at all. He's still at .323.

[colts18]

What is LeBron's updated PER?

Haven't actually done the calculation yet, but it should go down from 31.67 to like 31.65.

@JB: WS/48 hasn't shifted at all. He's still at .323.

What kind of game does he need to play in the final 2 to break the record?

[SideshowBob]

Let's say he needs a PER of 31.9 to firmly establish the record. That would need a PER of 41.4 in his next two games, or a PER of 50.9 in his next game if he only plays one. Statistically, he needs to produce in the realm of his NOH/PHI/MIL games in 30ish minutes to have a shot. In those three consecutive games he averaged a PER of about 47.

[SweetTouch]

So basically sit Wade and let LBJ handle the rock more