Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[rockymac52]

At this point, my preference among the top picks is as follows:

1. Noel
2. Bennett
3. Burke
4. Porter

After that, I still haven't figured things out. My next tier includes Oladipo, McGary and Zeller, but I'm not sure the order. I would definitely explore trade down options if my first 4 were already gone. I figure McLemore and Smart go in the top 5 so that'll push down at least one of my guys as far as 6. Will they last until #8 when we pick? I don't know.

A few thoughts:

1. Say no to McGary. This kid has gotten so overrated so quickly it's amazing. He had 5 very good games in the NCAA tournament out of nowhere, and then he fell on his face in the championship. How can you justify buying into him as an NBA player based on 5 games? The kid averaged 7 PPG and 6 RPG on the season. Yes, it was only about 20 MPG, so that's probably more in line with a 10/10 player if he's getting full-time starter minutes, and that's good, don't get me wrong. But it's nothing that special. That's Alex Len if you want that (I'll get to that later, he's even worse, arguably). If you are going to put a significantly greater value on his last 5 games because they happened to be at the end of the season when it mattered most (other than the championship game where he sucked), then it's only fair that you also throw out the regular season for everybody else and only look at their last 5 games or so. Right? So Otto Porter must be a terrible shooter, right? Same with Ben McLemore too? I know I'm overreacting here a bit, but it just really started to bother me, because it is simply unfair and illogical to ignore the rest of his season. Why not just draft Alex Oriakhi 5th overall instead, the guy who put up those same types of stats that McGary did in his last 5 games for the entire season! Doesn't make sense.

2. I am utterly confused by your inclusion of Trey Burke in your top 3. Now, this isn't to knock Trey Burke, necessarily. I think he's a talented player who could be a decent PG in this league, and he definitely has some serious upside. But what use is he to us? Even before Wall transformed into a superstar for the last two months, I think it would have been very questionable to use such a high pick on somebody who's going to be a backup getting 14 MPG at PG at most.

But here's what really confuses me about your love for Burke... i get if you think he's a really good player. I get if you think we should take the BPA regardless of position, and just make it work and acquire the best asset we can. Hell, I 100% agree with that sentiment for us right now. But if that's the case, then why aren't you showing any love to Ben McLemore?

Honestly, I think McLemore may very well be the best player in this draft, and right now he might be at the top of my draft board for the Wizards. You're obviously free to disagree, but I don't see how you could say McLemore isn't a top 5 player in this draft, at the VERY LEAST. Could you explain that to me? Because I really am confused and I can't understand your logic on this one. I'm normally in total agreement with almost everything you post, Nate, but I dunno, these two guys I just don't see eye to eye with you on, and it's not even close.

[sfam]

At this point, my preference among the top picks is as follows:

1. Noel
2. Bennett
3. Burke
4. Porter

After that, I still haven't figured things out. My next tier includes Oladipo, McGary and Zeller, but I'm not sure the order. I would definitely explore trade down options if my first 4 were already gone. I figure McLemore and Smart go in the top 5 so that'll push down at least one of my guys as far as 6. Will they last until #8 when we pick? I don't know.

A few thoughts:

1. Say no to McGary. This kid has gotten so overrated so quickly it's amazing. He had 5 very good games in the NCAA tournament out of nowhere, and then he fell on his face in the championship. How can you justify buying into him as an NBA player based on 5 games? The kid averaged 7 PPG and 6 RPG on the season. Yes, it was only about 20 MPG, so that's probably more in line with a 10/10 player if he's getting full-time starter minutes, and that's good, don't get me wrong. But it's nothing that special. That's Alex Len if you want that (I'll get to that later, he's even worse, arguably). If you are going to put a significantly greater value on his last 5 games because they happened to be at the end of the season when it mattered most (other than the championship game where he sucked), then it's only fair that you also throw out the regular season for everybody else and only look at their last 5 games or so. Right? So Otto Porter must be a terrible shooter, right? Same with Ben McLemore too? I know I'm overreacting here a bit, but it just really started to bother me, because it is simply unfair and illogical to ignore the rest of his season. Why not just draft Alex Oriakhi 5th overall instead, the guy who put up those same types of stats that McGary did in his last 5 games for the entire season! Doesn't make sense.

2. I am utterly confused by your inclusion of Trey Burke in your top 3. Now, this isn't to knock Trey Burke, necessarily. I think he's a talented player who could be a decent PG in this league, and he definitely has some serious upside. But what use is he to us? Even before Wall transformed into a superstar for the last two months, I think it would have been very questionable to use such a high pick on somebody who's going to be a backup getting 14 MPG at PG at most.

But here's what really confuses me about your love for Burke... i get if you think he's a really good player. I get if you think we should take the BPA regardless of position, and just make it work and acquire the best asset we can. Hell, I 100% agree with that sentiment for us right now. But if that's the case, then why aren't you showing any love to Ben McLemore?

Honestly, I think McLemore may very well be the best player in this draft, and right now he might be at the top of my draft board for the Wizards. You're obviously free to disagree, but I don't see how you could say McLemore isn't a top 5 player in this draft, at the VERY LEAST. Could you explain that to me? Because I really am confused and I can't understand your logic on this one. I'm normally in total agreement with almost everything you post, Nate, but I dunno, these two guys I just don't see eye to eye with you on, and it's not even close.

I'm right there with Nate, same order. Why Burke? Because our offense usually comes to a grinding halt when John Wall is out of the game. Outside of Wall and Beal, we just don't have a quality guard, so a combo guard makes all the sense in the world. At this point we're built for a penetrating guard to make good passes to open spot up shooters. Burke, who is a great decision maker, can do that. Moreso, he can hit the 3 with accuracy. When Beal goes out, Burke can fill in ably as an SG on offense and pg on defense. This gives us a terrific 3 guard rotation and a solid replacement if Wall goes down for a week or so. In today's game, having three high caliber guards is more than a luxury, its a solid advantage. We'd have a wicked small ball lineup with Burke. The reason I don't want McLemore is we already have a solid SG who can drain it from outside. Unless you think McLemore can play SF, he will be fighting Beal for minutes.

[nate33]

I'm right there with Nate, same order. Why Burke? Because our offense usually comes to a grinding halt when John Wall is out of the game. Outside of Wall and Beal, we just don't have a quality guard, so a combo guard makes all the sense in the world. At this point we're built for a penetrating guard to make good passes to open spot up shooters. Burke, who is a great decision maker, can do that. Moreso, he can hit the 3 with accuracy. When Beal goes out, Burke can fill in ably as an SG on offense and pg on defense. This gives us a terrific 3 guard rotation and a solid replacement if Wall goes down for a week or so. In today's game, having three high caliber guards is more than a luxury, its a solid advantage. We'd have a wicked small ball lineup with Burke. The reason I don't want McLemore is we already have a solid SG who can drain it from outside. Unless you think McLemore can play SF, he will be fighting Beal for minutes.

Thank you, sfam.

Yes, rockymac52, you make a perfectly good point that McLemore is a quality player. But as sfam pointed out, McLemore is redundant in our lineup. Wall can spend some time guarding 2's, which creates additional minutes at PG. But Beal can't spend any time at PG, which means there's only 12 minutes available behind him at SG. Basically, there are a minimum of 24 minutes a game available for Burke even when everyone is healthy. That can probably be boosted to 27 minutes or so because of foul trouble, injuries, and Beal stealing a few minutes at SF. I have no qualms about spending a lotto pick on a guy to play 24-27 minutes a game. With McLemore, there are only 12 minutes available. Maybe he can steal a few more at SF, but his minutes at SF will take away from players who are roughly as good: Webster and Ariza.

Since I consider McLemore and Burke to be roughly equal in talent, I'd go ahead and take the guy for whom we have more minutes available.

[nate33]

[

A few thoughts:

1. Say no to McGary. This kid has gotten so overrated so quickly it's amazing. He had 5 very good games in the NCAA tournament out of nowhere, and then he fell on his face in the championship. How can you justify buying into him as an NBA player based on 5 games? The kid averaged 7 PPG and 6 RPG on the season. Yes, it was only about 20 MPG, so that's probably more in line with a 10/10 player if he's getting full-time starter minutes, and that's good, don't get me wrong. But it's nothing that special. That's Alex Len if you want that (I'll get to that later, he's even worse, arguably). If you are going to put a significantly greater value on his last 5 games because they happened to be at the end of the season when it mattered most (other than the championship game where he sucked), then it's only fair that you also throw out the regular season for everybody else and only look at their last 5 games or so. Right? So Otto Porter must be a terrible shooter, right? Same with Ben McLemore too? I know I'm overreacting here a bit, but it just really started to bother me, because it is simply unfair and illogical to ignore the rest of his season. Why not just draft Alex Oriakhi 5th overall instead, the guy who put up those same types of stats that McGary did in his last 5 games for the entire season! Doesn't make sense.

I don't think this is a fair analysis. McGary has been a very productive player on a per-minute basis all season. He just didn't get much playing time because there were two upperclassmen in front of him. Whenever he got on the floor, he produced. The only change over the Tournament was that he was moved into the starting lineup. Don't make it sound like he sucked for 30 games and then had a fluky 5-game run in the Tournament. He has been good all year.

Maybe I'm just a sucker for bigs with a good motor. If a big is mobile, athletic, has some rudimentary skills, and a great motor, I think they pan out well in the NBA. I think McGary is a similar type of player as Noah and Faried. Energy like that generally translates well. At worst, maybe he'll just be the next Tyler Hansbrough. While that would be moderately disappointing for a #8 overall pick, it wouldn't be a disaster. Hansbrough is going to play 8-10 years in this league.

[mhd]

My concern with McGary is that he's overaged (McDermott, a junior, is only 6 months older than him). McGary should have dominating from the get go. Len is only 19 and didn't have Trey Burke to get him easy buckets. Imagine Len on Michigan instead of McGary. How much better a prospect would Len be?

[mhd]

Hmm, just played with the Ford's draft lottery and it seems our preference if we don't land in the top 3 is:

1) Bennett
2) Shabaaz
3) Len

[DCsOwn]

Hmm, just played with the Ford's draft lottery and it seems our preference if we don't land in the top 3 is:

1) Bennett
2) Shabaaz
3) Len

Very comfortable with any of those three if we're picking 7 or 8.

[hands11]

No doubt Burke is good. But he will come at a premium.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqhtnEvjsf8[/youtube]

Im pointing out other options. We should be able to trade down for CJM and get another first.

CJM
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omY6v5jJIjw[/youtube]

BCS Basic stats by assists
http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?s ... =prospects

Efficiency
http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.php?q ... n=20&q=eff

Pierre Jackson 5-10 180 is packing some muscle. Strong as an ox, lightening fast and amazing leaps and handles. And he can shoot. His number compare favorably to Burke. But he might be a little to rough around the edges for this team. But he has that winner persona like Burke and Smart do.

Blazing Speed
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJxh2CheUmg[/youtube]

Wet Jumper
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haF9aeGhWl4[/youtube]

Unlimited Bounce
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls-4PFZmKbE[/youtube]

Then again. I love how much this kid studies and has improved. Sounds like good stuff.
Erick Green high release. Sounds like his head is screwed on right. He really seem self aware.
Like a smaller Rip Hamiton

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Erick-Green-16580/

So we agree we need guard help. Its just a matter of how you get there. Pierre's numbers in assists are good when compared to Burkes and his scoring is there also. CJM is more a scoring guard with passing skills but man can he shoot and score. But when you add in the extra first for Gorgui Dieng/Withey and what Pierre adds, I think its something to consider vs just Burke who I don't see as a good SG option. Burke would not be a good injury replacement if Beal goes down while I think CJM could fill in for Beal and Pierre and Temple could handle the PG stuff.

Right now, I am more worried about Beal getting Injured then Wall. Beal has a history of ankle problems.

Beal missed more games then Nene this year and when its all said and done, he will have play just 7 games more then Wall who didnt start playing until 1/12.

Wall, Beal, CJM, Pierre and Temple gives you all the guards you need to cover all the skills you need.
Gorgui Dieng rebounds as well as Noel and he isn't coming off an ACL.
Withey is nothing to sneeze at either and he blocks a lot of shots.

[pancakes3]

Shouldn't the lottery be weighted based on the number of wins rather than rank?

[hands11]

Hmm, just played with the Ford's draft lottery and it seems our preference if we don't land in the top 3 is:

1) Bennett
2) Shabaaz
3) Len

And it has us doing that even if Burke or VO are available.

Has us going

Noel
Otto

If we land top 3

[stevemcqueen1]

Shouldn't the lottery be weighted based on the number of wins rather than rank?

Seems that way, but that would get complicated IMO. There is so little separating the records of each team. The weighting system is already monstrously complicated as is.

I'd be fine if they did away with the lottery altogether. It doesn't prevent tanking. It just leads to some shady stuff any year there are franchise players to be had. I called Cleveland getting Irving and New Orleans getting Davis last year. This year there isn't a franchise player to give away, but Orlando is the odds on favorite to get the first pick.

If Kobe retires and Dwight leaves LA, I guarantee Andrew Wiggins will be a Laker. And you can bet the Seattle Supersonics will draw pick #2.

[stevemcqueen1]

Speaking of Wiggins, anyone watch the Jordan Brand Classic? This group is tremendously fun to watch. Probably the greatest H.S. class ever. It's certainly the most athletic class I've ever seen. Kentucky's recruiting class is absurd. The best they've ever gotten if Randle keeps to his commitment. I think he will. Probably the best recruiting class for any single school in CBB history.

If Wiggins goes to Kentucky, that'd just be stupid. You'd have six of the top ten or twelve picks in next year's class all scoring like 8-10 points a game for a team that cake walks to a national championship.

It's night and day how much better the class of 2014 is going to be than this year's class. They are so much bigger and more athletic. So much more skilled. Aaron Gordon and Jabari Parker would be no brainer #1 picks in most classes and Wiggins and Randle are just better than them. Andrew Harrison might be too, that kid is terrific. Almost as good and exciting as Wall was. Gordon has absolutely sick handles and athleticism for his size, like a PF version of Vince Carter. He started sizing up somebody on the perimeter before blowing by them and my jaw dropped at how fast he was. James Young is good. Kasey Hill is good. Andrew Harrison's brother Aaron is good. Noah Vonleh is good. Wayne Selden is good. Noel, McLemore, and Bennett strike me as the only players from this class that are comparable athletes to the top 2014 kids.

I could see Jabari Parker going back to Duke for his sophomore year to let the one and dones clear out and he'll be the #1 pick in 2015.

Even if several of these kids flame out, this HS class is good enough to change the landscape of the NBA. The talent from this class is going to carry the NBA through the post LeBron era. And the class gets even better looking when you add in the internationals and returning sophomores who probably won't come out this year like Gary Harris, Mitch McGary, Kaleb Tarczewski, TJ Warren, and Willie Cauley-Stein.

There is nothing that could induce me to trade our 2014 draft pick. I would trade this year's pick for a bad team's 2014 pick without hesitation. If the one and dones come out, you could be picking 9th or 10th and still get a future All Star.

I would trade Beal and this year's pick for a top five pick and the chance to draft Wiggins, Gordon, Randle, or Parker next year. CBB is going to be fun to watch next season.

[Dark Faze]

If Shabazz is there when we pick it would be tempting. The Howland factor is huge considering he always seems to hold back NBA talent. He's a smooth talent that shot pretty well for a freshmen. Nice size, and I have a thing for lefty sg/sf's.

My main concern is his mentality. His interviews and workouts are going to be huge. He seemed so set on getting to the NBA, his dad and him both clearly doing some shady crap to get there...so what happens once you're there Shabazz? Do you actually care about a legacy or winning? Or is getting paid and enjoying the NBA lifestyle all that matters to you?

Unfortunately there's almost no evidence to support the former and a ton of evidence to support the latter...

[Ruzious]

My concern with McGary is that he's overaged (McDermott, a junior, is only 6 months older than him). McGary should have dominating from the get go. Len is only 19 and didn't have Trey Burke to get him easy buckets. Imagine Len on Michigan instead of McGary. How much better a prospect would Len be?

Ok, think of it this way. Did Muhammad produce as a freshman? Some think he did enough to be a top 3 pick. Muhammad is the same age as McGary. McGary significantly out-produced and out-efficiencied <trademark> Muhammad. 25.2 to 22.1 in PER and 59% to 49% in eFG%. 6'10 260 lbers that can move like McGary and play with energy are rare. And again, he hasn't come out of nowhere. He was a very highly recruited player - much moreso than Burke, for example - after dominating AAU ball.

[nate33]

Pierre Jackson 5-10 180 is packing some muscle. Strong as an ox, lightening fast and amazing leaps and handles. And he can shoot. His number compare favorably to Burke. But he might be a little to rough around the edges for this team. But he has that winner persona like Burke and Smart do.

He's 5-10 though. While I'm a big believer that undersized PG's can succeed in the NBA, they better be hyper-skilled to do so. Looking at Pierre Jackson's numbers, I don't think he meets the standard.

Consider another undersized PG who excels in the NBA: Ty Lawson. Lawson averaged 22.2 points, 8.8 assists and 2.9 steals per 40 minutes at age 21 with North Carolina. He shot 47.2% from 3-pt range and 56% from 2-pt range, and only turned the ball over 1.9 times per 40. His numbers were flat out incredible.

For comparison, Pierre Jackson at the same age is averaging 21.8 points, 7.8 assists and 1.7 steals per 40. He shoots 35.9% from 3-pt range, 49% from 2-pt range and averages 3.7 turnovers per 48. His efficiency and shooting ability is nowhere close to that of Lawson. And with Jackson being just 5-10, he's actually working at an even greater disadvantage than Lawson.

Jackson looks like a 2nd round pick to me. He might carve out a niche in this league as a competent backup PG, but it's doubtful he'll be much better. He might be someone I'd consider with our second round pick, but he is by no means a sure thing to succeed in this league. His best case scenario might be Isaiah Thomas (of Sacramento, that is). But he also might be another AJ Price.

[theboomking]

6th pick has a 25% chance of top 3 though, which is much better than if we're 8-10. Anything that improves our odds of coming away with Noel or Porter is a good thing. If we don't end up with one of those two, then it doesn't matter where we pick from 6-10.

McLemore is clearly a notch above Porter. I would take McLemore at #2 without hesitating. I think he can play some at SG and SF in a small lineup and would look awesome sharing the floor with Wall and Beal. You either take McLemore at #2, or you trade the pick for a young player that is already an All Star, or has All Star potential.

[willbcocks]

McLemore is 6'4.5 with a 6'7 wingspan. Porter is 6'8 with a 7'1 wingspan. They shoot very similar percentages, but Porter puts up far better stats. He's a sophomore, but he's younger than McLemore. And we already have Beal at the 2.

I would look at what other teams are offering for the pick, but if I don't like what I'm hearing, I take Porter, not Mclemore.

[nate33]

6th pick has a 25% chance of top 3 though, which is much better than if we're 8-10. Anything that improves our odds of coming away with Noel or Porter is a good thing. If we don't end up with one of those two, then it doesn't matter where we pick from 6-10.

McLemore is clearly a notch above Porter. I would take McLemore at #2 without hesitating. I think he can play some at SG and SF in a small lineup and would look awesome sharing the floor with Wall and Beal. You either take McLemore at #2, or you trade the pick for a young player that is already an All Star, or has All Star potential.

I don't necessarily agree with your assessment of McLemore, but I think you bring up a good point. In a way, it would kind of suck to be picking #2. The most highly regarded assets at that spot are probably McLemore and Smart, and neither is a very good fit here. We would probably end up drafting someone like Porter or Bennett, who would otherwise last as late as 5 or 6.

I would really prefer to trade the pick if we were at #2. Could we swap the #2 with Utah for Kanter? Maybe get one of their draft picks in the process? Or what about trading the #2 plus Vesely+Booker to Milwaukee for Ilyasova and their #15?

[mhd]

I could see EG dealing either the 2nd/3rd pick (assuming Noel is gone) along with Vesely to Minny for their 1st rounder and Derrick Williams.

[mhd]

My concern with McGary is that he's overaged (McDermott, a junior, is only 6 months older than him). McGary should have dominating from the get go. Len is only 19 and didn't have Trey Burke to get him easy buckets. Imagine Len on Michigan instead of McGary. How much better a prospect would Len be?

Ok, think of it this way. Did Muhammad produce as a freshman? Some think he did enough to be a top 3 pick. Muhammad is the same age as McGary. McGary significantly out-produced and out-efficiencied <trademark> Muhammad. 25.2 to 22.1 in PER and 59% to 49% in eFG%. 6'10 260 lbers that can move like McGary and play with energy are rare. And again, he hasn't come out of nowhere. He was a very highly recruited player - much moreso than Burke, for example - after dominating AAU ball.

I like Shabaaz, but not as a top 3 pick. The diffeence between Shabaaz and McGary is that Shabaaz did it the whole year and was the focus of the defense. McGary is probably worth a 10-14 pick in this draft, but his age (just as Shabaaz's) is a mitigating factor when accessing his pro prospects.