Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[Mizerooskie]

If Bennett were 2 or 3 inches taller, there'd be no debate as to who's going #1 overall, IMO.

He's raw, gets lost defensively, and settles for jumpers maybe too often, but he's 20 years old. These are the problems you expect to see from a prospect his age. They're coachable problems and he'd have two very professional mentors in Nene and Okafor (at least) his first year.

I've been in the Bennett camp all year if he tests well (i.e. big enough for a PF or athletic enough for a SF), and I'm still firmly there.

Bennett scares me for the reasons you mention. Why does Bennett get lost defensively? Could it be a lack of intelligence or does he just not care about defense. What kind of player with his girth and strength would settle for jumpers? Why isn't he taking it to the rack hard. Is he soft? I haven't watched him much so my only info is from posters here but perhaps someone that has seen him play a few times could comment. For instance, is he a good rebounder? Does he mix it up underneath to get position?

I'd say the main reason for all of those things is that he's 20 and not a fully developed player.

Let's assume he's coachable and not a knucklehead, for the sake of this discussion. Don't you think those things are highly fixable with coaching and repetition?

[nate33]

I could see EG dealing either the 2nd/3rd pick (assuming Noel is gone) along with Vesely to Minny for their 1st rounder and Derrick Williams.

I could see that too. It wouldn't be such a bad deal. I don't love Williams, but perhaps he continues to improve to the point where he's a starting caliber stretch four. We also dump Vesely's contract. A dream scenario would be for Burke to fall all the way to #9 and us grab him with the Minny pick. Then package Seraphin with our 2nd rounder to land a pick in the late teens/early 20's, high enough for Withey or Dieng. Our lineup next year:

PG Wall/Burke
SG Beal/Burke
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Williams/Booker
C Okafor/Nene
End of bench: Withey, Singleton, Temple

If Williams builds on his improvement this year, that's a sustainable 50-win team for a long time.

[willbcocks]

Your dream scenario is we move up in the lottery and come away with a below average, well-paid PF and a backup guard?

We need good starters above anything else. Just drafting Porter would be so much better. He looks like he'll be a good, though maybe not great, starter at SF and a perfect fit with Wall and Beal. He fits the part physically, seems like a high character player, and puts up great stats, so the chances of him busting are low. We could worry about signing depth over the next 1-3 offseasons while Beal and Porter are still on their rookie deals.

[nate33]

Your dream scenario is we move up in the lottery and come away with a below average, well-paid PF and a backup guard?

We need good starters above anything else. Just drafting Porter would be so much better. He looks like he'll be a good, though maybe not great, starter at SF and a perfect fit with Wall and Beal. He fits the part physically, seems like a high character player, and puts up great stats, so the chances of him busting are low. We could worry about signing depth over the next 1-3 offseasons while Beal and Porter are still on their rookie deals.

Good points, willbcocks. I misspoke when I said "dream scenario". I meant, the dream scenario within the confines of mhd's particular trade (meaning Burke is still available with the Minny pick).

I can definitely think of better things to do with the #2 overall pick. I'd certainly call up Utah and try to get Favors or Kanter (plus one of their two picks). I'd also call up New Orleans and Milwaukee to see how to come away with Anderson or Ilyasova while still retaining a first round pick high enough to land a role playing big (Dieng or Withey) or a good combo guard (McCullom).

I still think our two short term needs are combo guard and stretch four. And our two long term needs are young PF of the future and young C of the future. I like Porter, but he doesn't meet any of these four needs. At best, all he does is eliminate the need to resign Webster, so then we can fill our combo guard need with an MLE free agent.

The best type of player would be a young two-way stretch four. Then we address our short term need of a stretch four and our long term need of a PF of the future with one player.

[mhd]

Your dream scenario is we move up in the lottery and come away with a below average, well-paid PF and a backup guard?

We need good starters above anything else. Just drafting Porter would be so much better. He looks like he'll be a good, though maybe not great, starter at SF and a perfect fit with Wall and Beal. He fits the part physically, seems like a high character player, and puts up great stats, so the chances of him busting are low. We could worry about signing depth over the next 1-3 offseasons while Beal and Porter are still on their rookie deals.

Good points, willbcocks. I misspoke when I said "dream scenario". I meant, the dream scenario within the confines of mhd's particular trade (meaning Burke is still available with the Minny pick).

I can definitely think of better things to do with the #2 overall pick. I'd certainly call up Utah and try to get Favors or Kanter (plus one of their two picks). I'd also call up New Orleans and Milwaukee to see how to come away with Anderson or Ilyasova while still retaining a first round pick high enough to land a role playing big (Dieng or Withey) or a good combo guard (McCullom).

I still think our two short term needs are combo guard and stretch four. And our two long term needs are young PF of the future and young C of the future. I like Porter, but he doesn't meet any of these four needs. At best, all he does is eliminate the need to resign Webster, so then we can fill our combo guard need with an MLE free agent.

The best type of player would be a young two-way stretch four. Then we address our short term need of a stretch four and our long term need of a PF of the future with one player.

Well, say the draft order ends up like this and the Bobcats and Magic take Noel and Smart respectively. Who would want to trade up for Mclemore, and what do they have to offer? Cavs already have Waiters and Porter is a better fit for them. Suns have really nothing to offer. NO might offer Anderson, but they already have Eric Gordon. Pistons have nothing to offer and can't offer a future #1. Kings have nothing to offer.

1) Bobcats
2) Magic
3) Wiz
4) Cavs
5) Suns
6) NO
7) Pistons
8) Kings
9) Min

Say the Wiz do the Williams for Vesely and pick swap idea, the draft would go:
1) Bobcats-Noel
2) Magic-Smart
3) Min (from Wiz)-Mclemore
4) Cavs-Porter
5) Suns-Shabaaz
6) NO-Burke
7) Pistons-Oladipo
8) Kings-Bennett
9) Wiz (from Min)-Len

New lineup:
PG: Wall/Price
SG: Beal/Webster/Temple
SF: Webster/Ariza
PF: Nene/Williams
C: Emeka/Len

[sfam]

If Shabazz is there when we pick it would be tempting. The Howland factor is huge considering he always seems to hold back NBA talent. He's a smooth talent that shot pretty well for a freshmen. Nice size, and I have a thing for lefty sg/sf's.

My main concern is his mentality. His interviews and workouts are going to be huge. He seemed so set on getting to the NBA, his dad and him both clearly doing some shady crap to get there...so what happens once you're there Shabazz? Do you actually care about a legacy or winning? Or is getting paid and enjoying the NBA lifestyle all that matters to you?

Unfortunately there's almost no evidence to support the former and a ton of evidence to support the latter...

I really have the "stay off the grass" vibe with Shabazz. Both the lying and that one play late in the season where it was clear Shabazz was lots more interested in him being the hero instead of his team winning made it clear to me I want no part of him. He's a rich man's Nick Young.

[sfam]

Your dream scenario is we move up in the lottery and come away with a below average, well-paid PF and a backup guard?

We need good starters above anything else. Just drafting Porter would be so much better. He looks like he'll be a good, though maybe not great, starter at SF and a perfect fit with Wall and Beal. He fits the part physically, seems like a high character player, and puts up great stats, so the chances of him busting are low. We could worry about signing depth over the next 1-3 offseasons while Beal and Porter are still on their rookie deals.

I think I'd still prefer taking Bennet. Again, if we want to contend, we need more stars. I don't see Williams getting that much better. Dropping down means we'll probably be getting two decent role players over one potential star. I'd rather go with upside.

[Induveca]

Bennett is the only guy I'm sold on in this entire draft. Porter I'm not impressed with.... I'd rather have Muhammad (of whom I'm also not a fan).

[BruceO]

but a rich mans nick young is a very good player. I think if we got nick young to have bazz's focus and drive he'd be a very good player. He has his red flags but he also has a strong mentality. He came into UCLA out of shape and playing in that system deflating his numbers. I'm not for taking him necessarily but i think he may be under rated. Also my other argument pro him is he was able to work quick to convert his body into shape with his diet and exercise. He was also able to quickly change his scoring style from bulldozing to something else. So that dude is a ball player. He doesn't pass the ball and has no handle but that may not be a problem with the ball being in walls hand mostly

[nuposse04]

a rich man's young would be a perfect bench player initially. We need offense, pretty desperately with the 2nd unit. He actually hustles on D and is a pretty fierce competitor, I think he wants to win, which is a passionate quality you can't find in a lot of prospects. Do I think he wants money cause of his corrupt family...sure...but I don't he himself has totally un-amendable character flaws. I don't think he's playing as hard as he does just for one NBA rookie contract either. It isn't like he'll just coast once he gets drafted. He has all the physical tools you want out of a prospect and clearly has the offensive skill to score. I also think UCLA was a bad decision for him. It seemed like to me his teammates froze him out of possessions a lot. He surprisingly didn't make as many bad decisions as I would have thought for somebody who has shaky handles. I would not be mad if we drafted him outside of the top 3.

[popper]

If Shabazz were to drop and be selected by the Wiz he would be under the watchful eye of some seasoned vets who wouldn't hesitate to yank a knot in his as*.

[nate33]

I don't see much rich about him. I think he'll be lucky to be Nick Young without the "rich man's" modifier. As a 20-year old, Young shot about as well as Muhammad at age 20. Scarily, Young also averaged more rebounds, assists and steals. And then Young made a dramatic improvement the next year, improving 11% from 3-point range (to 44%) and 6% in overall FG% (up to 52%). Muhammad is going to have to make that same leap just to keep up. Young was also more athletic, with a freakish wingspan and mad hops.

Muhammed will probably pan out to be a decent bench scorer, but that's hardly what I want with the #8 overall pick in the draft.

[The Consiglieri]

I like what ive been reading about Pierre Jackson, btw. Wish I'd seen him play this year and didn't need to rely on youtube clips. Reading up on him, it just sounds like he will make a roster based on talent, rather than a space existing for him on the bench. Love the idea of getting him in the 2nd round. Love to draft him like we did Mack, but get a better player this time.

[nuposse04]

Nate, shouldn't we be comparing Young's 2nd year to Muhammad's first year, since they were both 20 at that time.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ung-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... mad-1.html

I think Muhammad has the tools to be the shooter young has, but they pretty much lack in other areas. But next to Wall, do we need a potential SF that needs to be an elite playmaker as well? It isn't a bad luxury to have, but I don't think its crippling that he hasn't developed a good playmaking game yet.

[stevemcqueen1]

McLemore is 6'4.5 with a 6'7 wingspan. Porter is 6'8 with a 7'1 wingspan. They shoot very similar percentages, but Porter puts up far better stats. He's a sophomore, but he's younger than McLemore. And we already have Beal at the 2.

I would look at what other teams are offering for the pick, but if I don't like what I'm hearing, I take Porter, not Mclemore.

McLemore is a better pure shooter than Porter and he's on a different planet than Porter athletically. Porter looks like a below average athlete for an NBA SF. He's an awkward looking open floor runner that really gathers himself to change directions. I watched him run the floor late in the season and wondered if he had a foot injury because of the way he runs. He's grounded too.

McLemore is going to be one of the best athlete's in the NBA. He's so fluid and coordinated, he's probably almost as fast a straight line runner as Wall, and he's an extremely explosive leaper. He's a freak. He'll get drafted before Porter. He'll probably go in the top two picks with Noel.

[The Consiglieri]

And Toronto wins, so pending lottery, we can do no worse than 9th. Muhammad comes into play to me if the big 3 are off the board, and everyone else from my tier 2 is gone as well (Bennett, Porter, Burke, Oladipo, Len), then who do you take? I don't think anyone other than maybe McCollum is worthy of jumping into that tier 2 group with Muhammad, and Muhammad has more projectable talent with fewer worries of outright busting in my view. On the plus side, I definitely think Muhammad will have an impact on the next level and be a legit starter, on the negative side he definitely strikes me as the sort of player that you are always looking to replace. Not sure you want to use a top 7-9 pick on that. Then again, he was the #2 rated prospect all last year for a reason, and probably is a massive bargain at 7-9, if he can rediscover what made him such a highly sought prospect.

[pancakes3]

Muhammed will probably pan out to be a decent bench scorer, but that's hardly what I want with the #8 overall pick in the draft.

As opposed to Burke being a decent bench guard with the 9th overall?

I kid. Burke is miles better than Shabazz and I support the 3rd guard draft strategy (as long as Porter is off the board). However, that isn't to say that Shabazz's ceiling is Nick Young. Given what Nick produced in college and in certain NBA seasons, it's fair to say that pressent-day Nick has underperformed to what his capabilities are.

Shabazz is much more focused and better at drawing fouls than Nick. Furthermore Nick is theoretically/empirically capable of a 17ppg season on 54% TS%. Per36, Nick is a career 18 ppg scorer on 53% TS% and a damn good defender to boot. The only problem is that he lacks focus and awareness - knocks that you can't lay on Shabazz lightly. I think the Nick Young analogy could hit, or it could undersell Shabazz due to the intangibles.

However at 8-9, he'll be a bit of a reach. Len, Zeller, and even Porter will be available at the tail end of the top 10. Shabazz is going to fall to the mid-teens, right around where Nick was drafted.

[stevemcqueen1]

6th pick has a 25% chance of top 3 though, which is much better than if we're 8-10. Anything that improves our odds of coming away with Noel or Porter is a good thing. If we don't end up with one of those two, then it doesn't matter where we pick from 6-10.

McLemore is clearly a notch above Porter. I would take McLemore at #2 without hesitating. I think he can play some at SG and SF in a small lineup and would look awesome sharing the floor with Wall and Beal. You either take McLemore at #2, or you trade the pick for a young player that is already an All Star, or has All Star potential.

McLemore is one of the few big time athletes in the class and thus one of the few with palpable star potential. But he scares me from a temperament standpoint. I get a little bit of an OJ Mayo vibe from him. I agree he'd be a natural fit playing in our system and with Wall and Beal. He's basically a more athletic Beal. Though Beal looked a lot more precocious than McLemore, who is a classic late bloomer. Beal is also a lot tougher and stronger bodied than McLemore to my eye.

Nevertheless, McLemore is very much like Beal and his resume for the past year is better than Beal's was at Florida. You certainly can't hurt this team by getting a second Beal. We'd have an absurdly explosive and talented back court. And we'd have the luxury of bringing McLemore along slower than we did Beal. He'd help our team shooting, give us another elite 3 ball shooter to play with Wall, give us an amazingly athletic finisher in transition and on cuts to the basket. He thrives off the ball. I speculate he would fit in easily with Wall and Beal from a personality perspective.

But drafting him would bring some problems. It's another perimeter player who is not comfortable creating for himself off the dribble. He can't play PG and we're so reliant on Wall for offensive creativity. He and Nene are the only ones we've got. He's not big enough to start at and play SF heavily without making our lineups very small. There would be defensive issues that would make keeping him on the court with Beal for heavy minutes unless Beal gets a lot more capable of running the point. So getting him the minutes he'll deserve is going to be a puzzle every game when Wall and Beal are healthy.

It'd be a lot cleaner if we come away with a forward or a big who projects to be a future starter. I don't know what we could get from trading McLemore, I think it'd be hard to win that kind of trade. I would probably just pick Bennett if we get bumped up to second or third.

This class being as bad as it is, this forward crop being as bad as it is, it'd be just our luck to get that kind of lotto fortune this season.

[sfam]

Nate, shouldn't we be comparing Young's 2nd year to Muhammad's first year, since they were both 20 at that time.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ung-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... mad-1.html

I think Muhammad has the tools to be the shooter young has, but they pretty much lack in other areas. But next to Wall, do we need a potential SF that needs to be an elite playmaker as well? It isn't a bad luxury to have, but I don't think its crippling that he hasn't developed a good playmaking game yet.

What's potentially crippling are the character issues? On top of that, the only position we are solid at is SF. We're far better off taking a combo guard, center or PF. Unless is someone like Porter, I'd take a big with upside like Len over Shabaaz every time.

[nate33]

Nate, shouldn't we be comparing Young's 2nd year to Muhammad's first year, since they were both 20 at that time.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ung-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... mad-1.html

I think Muhammad has the tools to be the shooter young has, but they pretty much lack in other areas. But next to Wall, do we need a potential SF that needs to be an elite playmaker as well? It isn't a bad luxury to have, but I don't think its crippling that he hasn't developed a good playmaking game yet.

I was. I was comparing Young's 2nd year to Muhammad's first. They're pretty much the same with Young having a small edge in rebounding and passing (which is a frightening thought). Notably, Young made a significant jump between his 2nd and 3rd season to put himself into position for being drafted in the teens. We are taking on faith that Muhammed will make the same jump, which definitely isn't a sure thing.